There is no change in the short-term or medium-term analysis. Medium-term, the daily chart shows SPY in a clear uptrend with a new 52-week high this week. The ETF is up some 7.6% since December and up 22% since August. These big gains make the ETF overbought by most... READ MORE
Even though this is very short-term oriented, the 5 minute P&F chart for the S&P 500 shows a clear support level around 1270. The ETF bounced off this area at least five times today. A break below would argue for some sort of short-term pullback. Keep... READ MORE
RISING DOLLAR THREATENS GOLD UPTREND... Tuesday's message wrote about an overbought condition in stocks and commodities, and showed gold in particular starting to roll over to the downside. Although some have questioned the viability of the dollar/commodity link, my view is that it's alive and... READ MORE
There is no change in the short-term or medium-term analysis. Medium-term, the daily chart shows SPY in a clear uptrend with a new 52-week high this week. The ETF is up some 7.6% since December and up 22% since August. These big gains make the ETF overbought by most... READ MORE
GILD gaps above trendline. HRB fills gap after selling climax. URBN hits support with falling wedge. Plus DELL,FDX,MAS,MRK,NE,YHOO This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
Akamai (AKAM) declined to support in December and formed a rather large bullish engulfing on Wednesday, provided the close is above the prior day's open. Volume also ticked up to exceed the 250-day SMA. This pattern affirms support and follow through would provide an early signal that the... READ MORE
RETAIL AND SEMIS MOVE FROM LEADERS TO LAGGARDS... Link for todays video. Even though the major indices remain in clear uptrends, relative weakness in some key groups suggests that a little caution is warranted. The perfcharts below show the S&P 500 with nine industry group ETFs. The first... READ MORE
There is not much change in the short-term or medium-term analysis. Medium-term, the daily chart shows SPY in a clear uptrend with a new 52-week high this week. The ETF is up some 7.6% since December and up 22% since August. These big gains make the ETF overbought by... READ MORE
After a big bang to start the year, stocks turned defensive on day two as six of the nine sectors were down as of 3PM ET. Of the three that were up, the utilities and healthcare sectors come from the defensive end of the market. Technology, which is clearly an... READ MORE
TWO MORE FINANCIAL BREAKOUTS... I wrote several December messages showing upside breakouts in various financial ETFs that included banks, brokers, and insurance stocks. I also showed several stocks in those categories that were experiencing bullish breakouts. My most recent message a couple of weeks ago showed two financial stocks that... READ MORE
The bulls started January just like December as stocks surged on the open and remained at high levels throughout the day. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) advanced just over 1% and recorded yet another 52-week high. SPY is now up 7.6% since the beginning of December. Even... READ MORE
ARO breaks support. AVP surges above resistance. VRTX forms bullish pennant. Plus FXE,GCI,INTC,ISRG,$TNX. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think... READ MORE
The US Natural Gas Fund (UNG) remains in a long-term downtrend, but the ETF shows signs of life with a higher low in late December and a surge in early January. Broken support and the January-2010 trendline combine to mark the next resistance around 6.7-6.9. Click this image... READ MORE
QQQQ AND IWM BREAK DECEMBER CONSOLIDATIONS... Link for todays video. After consolidating the last two weeks of the year, the major index ETFs started 2011 with a jump above their 2010 highs. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) breaking above 78 in mid December and then consolidating around... READ MORE
Even though sentiment is excessively bullish and stocks are ripe for a pullback, the major index ETFs simply show no signs of selling pressure and remain strong overall. The CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio ($CPC) dipped below .75 in mid December to show excessive bullishness, but this did not stop... READ MORE
Hot off the press from our scan engine, 51 of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 are up over 50% over the last 250 trading days, which is around one year. That's just over 10%, which makes for a pretty amazing year. 3 stocks are... READ MORE
Here are the top 10 technical charting developments that happened during 2010 as selected by our crack staff of technical analysts. See if you agree... 10. Apple surpassed Microsoft in market capitalization on May 26th and gained over 50% on the year. Apple is currently valued around $298 billion, while... READ MORE
SMALL AND MID-CAPS LEAD THE WAY IN 2010... Link for todays video. The last four months of 2010 witnessed some serious relative strength in small and mid-caps stocks. Chart 1 shows five key stock indices: the Russell 2000, S&P MidCap 400, Nasdaq, S&P 500 and S&... READ MORE
Rising interest rates are a plus for the greenback. After a pullback in mid December, interest rates resumed their upward trajectory as the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) surged above 3.45% on Tuesday. Rising interest rates are bullish for both the Dollar and the stock market. Rates rise when the... READ MORE
The Dow Transports have been flat for four weeks as the Average forms small weekly candlesticks in the 5000-5100 area. A visual assessment indicates that these are the smallest candlesticks of the year. Bollinger Band Width (10,2) contracts as the Average stalls. This volatility contraction could give way to... READ MORE
There is no real change in the short-term or medium-term situation. Even though some sentiment indicators show excessive bullishness, SPY remains in a clear uptrend on the 60-minute chart and the daily chart. The chart below shows the 5-day EMA for the CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio ($CPC). A move... READ MORE
AKAM forms falling wedge. BMY traces out bull flag. CSCO breaks mid-December high. Plus EFTC, ISRG and STX. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) remains in bull mode as the Conversion Line (blue) holds above the Base Line (red). The Kijun-sen (Base Line) equals: (26-period high + 26-period low)/2)). The Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line) equals: (9-period high + 9-period low)/2)). These two act like moving averages, one slower and one... READ MORE
Commentary on Art's Charts will be updated on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.... READ MORE
The S&P Sector PerfChart shows the consumer discretionary and industrials sectors leading the way in 2010. All sectors are up for the year, but these two are clearly the big leaders. Energy and materials came in a distance third and fourth, respectively. In a surprising twist, technology (XLK)... READ MORE
WITH APOLOGIES TO POETS EVERYWHERE... Twas the night before Christmas And on the street they call Wall Traders and investors were having a ball, Stocks and commodities were ending on a high note Which for the global economy was a positive vote, Extended tax cuts started by Bush Also gave... READ MORE
There is no change for the daily or intraday analysis. The uptrend and Santa Claus rally propelled the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to a new 2010 high again on Wednesday. Once again, the tape rules the roost. Broken resistance from the November high turns into first support and... READ MORE
$CAKE tests support. $DELL shows strong OBV, $GRMN breaks wedge trendline. Plus $COL, $ERTS, $HRS, $ISRG. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think... READ MORE
Point & Figure charts provide clear support and resistance levels. The P&F chart below shows the Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) breaking above resistance that extends back to June (red 6 on the chart). The 2010 high around 30 marks the next target for this breakout. Click this image... READ MORE
HISTORY AND THE 6-MONTH CYCLE... Link for todays video. Stocks are currently in the bullish part of the six month cycle and about to enter the bullish portion of the presidential cycle. First, lets look at the six month cycle. History shows a clear bullish bias from November to April... READ MORE
The uptrend and Santa Claus rally propelled the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to a new high for 2010. Once again, the tape rules the roost. Broken resistance from the November high turned into first support and held like a champ. There is really nothing much to add on... READ MORE
Stocks remained strong overall in December, but Intel (INTC) has been a noticeable laggard. The pink line shows the INTC:$NDX ratio. This relative strength comparative rises when Intel outperforms the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) and falls when Intel underperforms. Intel has been lagging since mid November, which is when this... READ MORE
REGIONAL BANK LEADERS... I've written several articles recently on three underperforming stock groups just starting to turn up. The three groups are financials, homebuilders, and steel. I've shown several stocks in each group that have achieved bullish breakouts, and some stocks that were close to doing... READ MORE
The song remains the same. Despite overly bullish sentiment and waning breadth, SPY continues to hold its gains and consolidate above the resistance break. Once again, price action or "the tape" rules the roost here. Chartists use all kinds of tools including momentum indicators, sentiment measures, breadth readings... READ MORE
$COL forms bearish engulfing at key retrace. $FLIR breaks triangle resistance. $MED surges and forms bullish pennant. Plus $AVP, $JAH, $LMT, $SYMC. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
DIA AND QQQQ CONSOLIDATE ABOVE THEIR BREAKOUTS... Link for todays video. Broken resistance turns into support. This is basic tenet of technical analysis. With the December surge, a number of indices and ETFs broke above their November highs. Once broken, these highs turn into the first supports level to watch.... READ MORE
After declining from mid October to mid-November, TSL firmed near the 62% retracement mark over the last few weeks. The stock also has support here from the August consolidation. A break from the December range will trigger the next signal. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
Sentiment readings show excessive bullishness and breadth has been dragging for two weeks, but the uptrends remain in place and seasonality is bullish. The first chart shows the 5-day EMA for the CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio ($CPC) dipping below .75 and nearing its bullish extreme (.70). Prior dips below... READ MORE
We have written several messages of late about the recent upturn in financial stocks that had been lagging behind the rest of the market since the spring. I expressed the view that a sustained upturn in the stock market was unlikely without some help from the financial sector. Fortunately, financial... READ MORE
Happy Holidays! The recent rally off the late-August low has begun to encounter sluggish internals, which leads one to believe that the market shall be poised correct in the weeks and perhaps even months ahead. To this end, we should note the CBOE Volatility index or VIX has moved sharply... READ MORE