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EURO FAILS AT RESISTANCE - STRONG DOLLAR WEIGHS ON OIL - WEAKNESS IN OIL HITS ENERGY ETFS - GOLD FALLS ALONG WITH OIL - BOND ETFS CHALLENGE RESISTANCE - 10 CURRENCY PERFCHART - PESO HITS NEW HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EURO FAILS AT RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. Continued concerns with Greece weighed on the Euro as it failed at first resistance. Fundamentally, France and Germany do not agree (surprise, surprise) on the details of a rescue package. France favors a European solution, while Germany favors IMF involvement. Whatever the...
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A rough week for energy
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Sector Market Carpet shows gains across eight of the nine sectors over the last four days. The energy sector is the only one not sporting a gain this week. Notice that the "bottom 5" performing stocks come from this sector as well. The finance is the strong...
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Medium-Term Evidence Remains Bullish
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There is no change in the Stock Market Summary this week. All indicators are in bull mode with no signs of weakness within the market. After a sharp advance the last three weeks, the major index ETFs are short-term overbought and ripe for a pullback or consolidation. RSI for...
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String broken, but not uptrend
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) finally broke its string of advances with a small decline on Thursday. And I do mean small. DIA, QQQQ and IWM were up fractionally on the day. The sectors were mixed with five down and four up. Net Advances and Net Advancing Volume...
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NEW 2010 HIGH BY DOW INDUSTRIALS KEEPS DOW THEORY UPTREND INTACT -- UPS AND FDX LEAD TRANPORTS HIGHER -- RECENT DOW LEADERS INCLUDE CISCO, DUPONT, GE, INTEL, AND WALMART
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TRANSPORTS BROKE OUT LAST WEEK ... I pointed out over a week ago (on Tuesday March 9) that the Dow Transports had broken through their 2010 which was a good sign for the stock market and the economy. That's because transportation stocks are cyclical in nature and do better...
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IBM forms second bearish engulfing
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
For the second time in three weeks, IBM made the bearish engulfing scan and confirmed resistance at 129. The stock first hit resistance here in early March. The bearish engulfing has yet to be confirmed as the stock stays range bound the last five days. Watch 127 down and 129...
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The runaway train continues
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continued higher with a close above 117. Even though the ETF closed up on the day, the candlestick was indecisive with a small body and relatively equal upper/lower shadows. Since the breakout at 108, I count six indecisive candlesticks. It is clear...
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$XME nears January high
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Materials and Energy related ETFs have been lagging the broader market because many remain below their January highs. That may be changing. The chart below shows the Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) surging towards its January high with a move over the last two days.
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MCCLELLAN SUMMATION INDICES EXCEED JANUARY HIGHS - NET ADVANCES VERSUS NET ADVANCING VOLUME - NYSE AD LINE CONTINUES ITS RUN - NYSE AD VOLUME LINE HITS NEW HIGH - NASDAQ AD VOLUME LINE EXCEEDS 2007 HIGH - SHORT-TERM BREADTH WEAKENS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MCCLELLAN SUMMATION INDICES EXCEED JANUARY HIGHS... Link for todays video. There are many ways to measure breadth. AD Lines and AD Volume Lines are two of the purest breadth indicators. The raw data goes through relatively little manipulation and the formula is simple. While the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index...
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SPY makes it lucky 13
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) made it a lucky 13 with another advance on Tuesday. There are, hundreds, if not thousands, of indicators and drawing techniques available to the technical analyst. Chances are that one of these indicators or drawing techniques will pick the exact top. Our job...
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WEAKER DOLLAR BOOSTS GOLD -- NEWMONT LEADS MINERS HIGHER -- CANADIAN DOLLAR HITS 52-WEEK HIGH AND IS STRONGEST CURRENCY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BOUNCE IN EURO WEAKENS DOLLAR ... Chart 1 shows the U.S. Dollar Index continuing the pullback that started nearly a month ago. A lot of the recent selling is the result of a bounce in Euro as shown in Chart 2. Although no major trend reversals have taken place, the...
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Short-Term rates rising ahead of Fed
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Even though the Fed is unlikely to raise rates today, the bond market is already doing some of the Fed's work. The 3-month T-Bill Rate ($IRX) bottomed at the end of November and surged over the last two months. Despite this big move, $IRX is still...
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SPY up 12 days straight
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) put another notch on its belt today with the 12th straight gain. As far as I can tell, September 1995 was the last such occurrence, after which SPY moved into a seven week trading range. I posted a chart of September 1995 in...
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SPY MAKES IT 12 STRAIGHT - PARTY LIKE IT'S 1995 - OIL HITS RESISTANCE - WEAKNESS IN OIL WEIGHS ON XLE - OIH REMAINS IN UP SWING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY MAKES IS 12 STRAIGHT... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) eked out another gain on Monday to make it twelve straight days with a closing gain. Chart 1 shows SPY trading above its January high the last three days. The blue dotted lines define...
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Pulte hits retracement resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Pulte Homes (PHM) is hitting resistance from broken support and the 62% retracement around 11.8. The stock hit this resistance zone twice in February and formed a lower high in March. Also notice that PHM is underperforming the S&P 500 over the last few weeks.
Click this...
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SPY up 11 days straight
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With Friday's advance, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is now up 11 days straight and 20 of the last 25 days. It is an almost historic run. The ETF was up 12 days straight on September 13th, 1995. After the September 1995 run, the ETF went...
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S&P 500 IS TESTING JANUARY HIGH -- INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATE BOND ETF HITS NEW HIGHS -- PULLBACK IN US DOLLAR MAY GIVE TIPS A LIFT -- WEAKNESS IN CHINESE STOCKS MAY BE WEIGHING ON COMMODITIES --REITS HIT NEW HIGHS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 TESTS JANUARY HIGH ... I wrote on Tuesday that the number of stock indexes and groups hitting new 2010 highs called for a test of the January high by the S&P 500. Chart 1 shows the S&P in the process of doing that....
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Breadth continues to expand
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
NYSE and Nasdaq breadth continues to expand and back up the current rally. From the breadth charts page at Stockcharts.com, we can see the NYSE AD Line ($NYAD) and Nasdaq AD Line ($NAAD) moving sharply higher the last five weeks. Also notice that the cumulative Net New Highs lines...
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HEALTHCARE STOCKS LAG - DEFENSIVE SECTORS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS - DOLLAR STALLS NEAR RESISTANCE - EURO BOUNCES NEAR 62% RETRACEMENT - INTEREST RATES AND THE DOLLAR - GOLD FALLS TO SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HEALTHCARE STOCKS LAGGING... Link for todays video. While most of the major indices broke their January high, the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) fell well short of this high and shows relative weakness. Chart 1 shows XLV bouncing with the rest of the market over the last five weeks and hitting resistance...
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MT Evidence shows sea of green
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
All stock market indicators are in bull mode. Before moving to the details, note that two indicators have been removed. The McClellan Oscillators were removed because they are redundant breadth indicators. The AD Lines represent a purer picture of the advance-decline metrics. The intermarket indicator has been removed because...
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SPY goes 10 for 10
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With Thursday's advance, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is now up 10 of the last 10 days and 19 of the last 24. This is an amazing string of advances. In fact, I would say it is starting to look like a melt-up, which is...
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SPY goes for 10 of 10
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With a move into positive territory today, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is trying to make it 10 up days in a row. The ETF is also trying to make it 19 up days out of the last 24 days. Truly a remarkable run. Resistance from the January...
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SPY challenges January high
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There was another challenge to the January high as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gained around 1/2% to close at 114.97. For all intents and purposes, SPY has reached the January high. However, it has yet to exceed the January high. As noted in Wednesday'...
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QQQQ EXCEEDS JANUARY HIGH - SEMIS LEAD TECHS - INTC HITS RESISTANCE - AMAT TESTS SUPPORT - FINANCE SECTOR CHALLENGES RESISTANCE - C AND WFC SURGE - DOW INDUSTRIALS STALLS BELOW JANUARY HIGH - SHANGHAI COMPOSITE STALLS AT BROKEN SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
QQQQ EXCEEDS JANUARY HIGH... Link for todays video. Stocks moved higher again on Wednesday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) joining the list of ETFs breaking their January high. The move above the January high forges a new 52-week high for this big tech ETF. The last 52-week...
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Profunds Sector Carpet
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Even if you do not trade or invest with Profunds, the Profunds market carpet provides an excellent means to track sector/industry action. The Profunds Mutual Funds sector carpet shows 19 funds with the top/bottom five listed on the right. Over the last five days, only the Precious Metals...
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SPY stalls near January high
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After moving sharply higher in early trading, stocks turned lower in the afternoon and finished mixed on the day. All major indices finished fractionally higher, but the sectors were mixed with three up, five down and one unchanged. With the afternoon selloff, shooting stars formed in the S&P...
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Cisco surges ahead of announcement
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Cisco (CSCO) surged above resistance and recorded a new 52-week high ahead of Tuesday's big announcement. Notice how CSCO started its move with a volume surge in early February. While the new 52-week high is bullish, the stock is getting a bit frothy and the news...
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ODDS SHIFT TOWARD A FIFTH WAVE RALLY -- NEW HIGHS BY THE NYSE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE AND A GROWING NUMBER OF MARKET GROUPS ARGUE FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE BULL MARKET -- TRUCKERS LEAD TRANSPORTS TO NEW HIGHS AS WELL -- WHERE TO READ UP ON ELLIOTT WAVES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ODDS SHIFT TO FIFTH WAVE RALLY... Arthur Hill's Monday message addressed a couple of different ways to interpret the current Elliott Wave structure. The market is at an inflection point in Elliott Wave terms. Let's briefly review what's at stake and why. From the...
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SPY stalls near January high
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After a gap and surge above 114 on Friday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) stalled with a small doji on Monday. This is hardly surprising given potential resistance near the January high and short-term overbought conditions. SPY is up over 7% since mid February and up over...
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RIMM goes for a breakout
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Research in Motion (RIMM) broke above resistance with a sharp advance in early trading on Monday. The chart shows resistance around 72 from the December-February highs. In addition, a small inverse head-and-shoulders formed over the last three weeks and RSI held momentum support at 50.
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REACTION LOWS FOR IWM AND RSI - S&P 500 ELLIOTT WAVE REVIEW - FINANCE SECTOR CHALLENGES RESISTANCE - SMH REMAINS BELOW JANUARY HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
REACTION LOWS FOR IWM AND RSI... Link for todays video. An uptrend is defined by higher highs and higher lows. With the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) hitting a new 52-week high last week, we can assume that the overall trend remains up. Chart 1 shows weekly candlesticks for IWM...
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SPY becomes short-term overbought
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks surged with a better-than-expected employment report on Friday. The Russell 2000, S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index, Nasdaq 100 Equal-weight Index and S&P 400 MidCap Index all recorded new 52-week highs. The Nasdaq 100, Dow and S&P 500 also surged,...
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DETAILED INDUSTRIES AND SECTORS NOW ON STOCKCHARTS
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!
We've been working hard the past couple of weeks to get better Sector and Industry classifications for the stocks in our database and today that work is finally starting to surface on the web site.
One of the big problems with Sector and Industry classifications...
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ON HIATUS THIS WEEK
by Richard Rhodes,
Founder and President, Rhodes Capital Management and Rhodes Trading Group
Richard will return for our next issue....
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SECTOR ROTATION CONTINUES
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Happy Anniversary! It was one year ago, on March 6, 2009, that the S&P 500 made that unforgettable 666 low, completing an amazing drop from above 1300 in August 2008. That represented nearly a 50% decline in the market capitalization of 500 of the largest U.S. companies...
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WHY I'VE AVOIDED INVERSE ETFS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
A number of readers have asked why I haven't said much about inverse (or bear) ETFs. The main reason is that I wasn't convinced that the recent market dip was serious enough to warrant bearish positions. So far, that view has been justified. Chart 1 shows...
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THRUST/TREND BUY SIGNAL FOR S&P 500
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
Looking at the S&P 500, a new Thrust/Trend buy signal was generated on Monday, changing from a neutral stance. Specifically, the signal was generated by the PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) and PBI (Percent Buy Index) crossing up through their EMAs. The Thrust Component signal was confirmed later...
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Net New Highs Expand to January Levels
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Net New Highs survived their third corrective period and surged over the last few weeks. The chart below shows Nasdaq Net New Highs surging back above +200 this week. Prior surges in October and early January hit the +200 area. Notice that there have been three corrections over the last...
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BONDS ROCKED BY PAYROLLS - BACK TO BASICS WITH HIGHER HIGHS AND HIGHER LOWS FOR SPY - EQUAL-WEIGHT QQQQ VERSUS QQQQ - NET NEW HIGHS EXPAND TO JANUARY LEVELS - OIL CHALLENGES RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BONDS ROCKED BY BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED PAYROLLS... The Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls declined 36,000 for the month of February, which was much better than the consensus estimate for a decline of 68,000 jobs. Positive news on the jobs front sent bonds sharply lower and yields...
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Oracle stalls after surge
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Oracle (ORCL) surged in mid February and then stalled over the last two weeks. The resolution of this consolidation will signal the next directional move. A break above resistance would be short-term bullish, while break below support would be bearish.
Click this image for details...
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