S&P 500 NEARS 1000 RESISTANCE BARRIER ... I wrote recently that an upside breakout in the S&P 500 could push it back to the high of last November near 1000. It is now trading within 20 points (or 2%) of that potential resistance barrier. There's... READ MORE
- Charts Worth Watching: AKAM, AZO, BA, CHRW, DHR, DRI, ERTS, FCX, KEY, PFCB, UTX - Link to today's video. - Next update will be Friday (July 31) by 7AM ET. ***************************************************************** Akamai Tech (AKAM) hits key retracement with a harami. With a surge back above 21, AKAM retraced around 62% of... READ MORE
- Stocks remain medium-term bullish - Short-term overbought conditions persist - Dollar firms near June low - Gold stalls at retracement - Oil forms rising wedge - TLT forms narrow range days. - Link to today's video. - Charts Worth Watching will be posted around9:30AM. - Next update will be Friday (July 31) by... READ MORE
With gains over the last few days, the Financials SPDR (XLF) is challenging an important resistance zone on the daily PnF chart. Notice that broken support (2008) around 13 turned into resistance in 2009. XLF is currently on a bullish PnF signal with a price objective around 21. A break... READ MORE
HOMEBUILDERS RALLY... New home sales in the U.S. climbed 11% last month which is the biggest gain in eight years. Following that report, homebuilding stocks are trading higher. Judging from today's first chart, however, it appears that the market has been anticipating that good news for months.... READ MORE
The Dynamic Yield Curve shows two plots over the last eight months. The black line shows the yield curve in December, while the maroon line shows the current yield curve. Today's yield curve is much steeper because 3-month rates are virtually unchanged since December, but longer rates... READ MORE
MICROSOFT FALLS NEARLY 10% ON BIG VOLUME ... A nearly 10% drop in Microsoft is causing some profit-taking in the market today. Because of its huge size, Microsoft carries a lot of weight in the Nasdaq market which is leading today's profit-taking. Chart 1 shows MSFT gapping... READ MORE
- Charts Worth Watching: AZO, BBT, FITB, HBAN, NEM, NKE, QLGC, QSII, S , SYK, USB, WAG - Link to today's video. - Next update will be Tuesday (July 28) by 7AM ET. ***************************************************************** Autozone (AZO) broke wedge resistance with a surge in early July and then pulled back to this breakout area... READ MORE
- Staying Overbought - Earnings Driving the Advance - XLF Breaks Flag Resistance - KRE Surges off July Low - Bonds Falter as Stocks Surge - Link to today's video. - Stock setups video around 9AM ET. - Next update will be Tuesday (July 28) by 7AM ET. ***************************************************************** Staying Overbought You got to know when to... READ MORE
STOCKS EXTEND GAINS WITH BROAD ADVANCE ... Link for todays video. Favorable reactions to earnings reports continued to propel stocks higher. The major indices were all sharply higher on Thursday with small-caps leading the way higher. It is positive to see small-caps showing relative strength. All sectors were also... READ MORE
For the first time since January, the Dow Industrials moved above the 9000 level. It took around two months to fall from 9000 to 6500 and then 4-5 months to get back above 9000 (March to July). There is potential resistance in this area, but the trend remains up.... READ MORE
RESISTANCE LEVELS STILL IN PLAY... Link for todays video. Despite new reaction highs from a number technology related ETFs, other key ETFs have yet to exceed their June highs and some are meeting resistance from the June highs. Basically, ETFs trading above their June highs show relative strength, while ETFs... READ MORE
The inter-market relationship since early March remains in place. Stocks and commodities are up sharply over the last two weeks, but bonds and the Dollar are down. This relationship suggests that stock market weakness would lead to weakness in commodities, strength in bonds and strength in the Dollar.... READ MORE
After a long white candlestick on Monday, Research in Motion (RIMM) pulled back immediately on Tuesday with a small decline. Tuesday's trading has been within Monday's range thus far. Should this range hold, an inside day or harami would take shape. A harami is a potentially... READ MORE
STUDY OF EARLIER SECULAR BEARS... Last Friday, I wrote that any bull market at the current time would most likely be "cyclical" as opposed to "secular". I'd like to elaborate on that distinction. Secular trends are very long term in nature and can last... READ MORE
- Charts Worth Watching: AET, CAKE, IHF, ITB, IYR, TLT, UNH, XHB - Link to today's video. The next update will be Friday (July 24) by 7AM ET. ***************************************************************** The 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) is trying to firm near the 62% retracement line. TLT surged above 96 with its biggest... READ MORE
- Market Overview - QQQQ breaks June high - SPY hits resistance - Stocks short-term overbought - VIX hits new low, - Percent above 200-day hits new high - Net New Highs expand - Small-caps lag large-caps. -Link to today's video. Chart Worth Watching will be posted around 9AM. The next update... READ MORE
The AD Line for the NYSE remains strong after a break above the June high. In fact, the AD Line is leading the NY Composite because the latter has yet to break its June high. Leadership from the AD Line is positive for the market overall. You see breadth stats... READ MORE
TREASURY YIELDS HAVE BOTTOMED ... The stock market is a leading indicator of the economy. Historically, stocks usually bottom about six months before the economy. With a stock bottom having formed in March, that leaves a time target for an economic bottom by September. Rising stock prices are one of the... READ MORE
It looks like you can throw out most of what I wrote last Friday. I was expecting a deeper market correction after most market indexes broke short-term head and shoulder "necklines" (and daily EMA lines turned negative). I also wrote about the possible threat from a rally... READ MORE
Last week I presented an alternate scenario to the head and shoulders breakdown and projected decline: "While the bearish case seems strongest at this point, a bullish outcome is not impossible. Bullish forces have weakened, but it is not at all clear that the bear market has resumed. A... READ MORE
As the summer doldrums set in, we've seen quite a bit of back and forth in the various capital markets, with prices not moving far from where they were just 2-months prior. However, last week was important for the Gold Miners (GDX) we believe, for a very... READ MORE
This first chart really says it all: Semiconductors are trying to break out on a relative basis. They're trying to do it at a time when the major indices are attempting breakouts of their own. A combination of a relative price breakout in semiconductors while at the same... READ MORE
It is hard to argue with the bulls when the vast majority of Nasdaq and NYSE stocks are trading above their 200-day SMAs. Over 66% of Nasdaq stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, while over 77% of NYSE stocks are trading above their 200-day moving... READ MORE
STOCKS TURN HIGHER ... It looks like you can throw out most of what I wrote last Friday. I was expecting a deeper market correction after most market indexes broke short-term head and shoulder "necklines" (and daily EMA lines turned negative). I also wrote about the possible threat... READ MORE
With a surge back above 8500 this week, the Dow Industrials reclaimed the upper ground on the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Also notice that the 50-day SMA moved above the 200-day SMA. This is also knows as a golden cross. Even though these are positive... READ MORE
- Charts Worth Watching: CAKE, INTU, JCP, LEAP, MCD, PII, PSS, QSII - Link to today's video. - The next update will be Tuesday (July 21) by 7AM ET. ***************************************************************** Cake edges towards resistance. With the market surge over the last four days, I would have expected bigger things from the Cheesecake... READ MORE
- Market Overview: DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, $VIX, $NAA200R, AAII Sentiment, AD Line and Ad Volume line - Click here for today's video. - The next update will be Tuesday (July 21) by 7AM ET. ***************************************************************** Still Within Trading Ranges Despite this week's surge, I am still not buying into... READ MORE
TECHS CONTINUE TO LEAD ... Link for todays video. The stock market moved higher on Thursday, but participation was a bit more mixed. Eight of the nine sectors were higher with the Financials SPDR (XLF) declining on the day. Technology showed relative strength with the second biggest gain on the day.... READ MORE
Despite a big surge in the S&P 500 on Wednesday, the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) recovered from early losses and closed higher on the day. This is unusual because the VIX normally declines during a sharp stock market advance. It is just one day though.... READ MORE
SPY SURGES BACK TO JULY HIGH. ... After breaking below its May lows just seven days ago, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) recouped its July losses with a surge over the last three days. The strength behind the move of the last three days is extraordinary (3 days, 5+... READ MORE
Even though the Nasdaq is trading above its mid May levels, the Nasdaq Summation Index (green line) is trending lower. This breadth indicator suggests that a "stealth" correction is underway within the Nasdaq. In other words, stocks within the index are showing some weakness, but the index itself... READ MORE
The chart below shows Alcoa (AA) with black candlesticks and the continuous futures contract for Aluminum ($ALUM). Although not perfect, there is clearly a positive correlation between the two. Overall, both have been working their way higher since March. More recently, both peaked in early June and moved lower the... READ MORE
- Charts Worth Watching: AMAT, BMY, BRK.A, CB, HOG, NBR, NSM, PII, PTEN - Link to today's video. - The next update will be Friday (July 17) by 7AM ET. ***************************************************************** Applied Materials (AMAT) broke trendline resistance with good volume. ***************************************************************** Bristol Meyers (BMY) firms near key retracement. Volume also surged as... READ MORE
- Market Overview: SPY, GS, XLF, KRE, VIX, VXN, $NYA200R, $NAA200R - Link to today's video. A stock setups commentary and video will be posted around 9AM. The next update will be Friday (July 17) by 9AM ET. ***************************************************************** As most of us know, an upgrade of Goldman Sach (GS) spurred... READ MORE
A look at the market carpet for Monday reveals strength in the finance sector. All sectors are up today, but the finance sector shows the most, and the darkest, green on the carpet. From the table on the right, you can also see that four of the five biggest gainers... READ MORE
FINANCIAL STOCKS JUMP 6%... A buy signal on Goldman Sachs by a prominent Wall Street analyst and an upgrade on bank stocks gave a big boost to that sector and the rest of the market with it. The Financials Sector SPDR (XLF) climbed 6.4% and it did so on... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES CONTINUE TO SLIP ... Today's report of another drop in consumer confidence is contributing to more stock selling. Charts 1 through 3 show the downward drift in all three major stock indexes. Another negative sign for the market is that former support levels that have been broken... READ MORE
With another down day on Thursday, the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) has now declined seven days in a row. Even though it is getting short-term oversold, it looks like a medium-term downtrend is taking shape. The index could eventually retraced 50% of the March-June advance.... READ MORE
Charts Worth Watching: AAPL, AMAT, AMZN, ARO, BMS, BMY, CAKE, CHRW, FDX, GR, IWM, JBL, JCP, LLY, NKE, OMC, PFE, PRSP, QQQQ, SPY, WPO - Link to today's video. - Next update will be Tuesday (July 14) by 9AM ET. ***************************************************************** After a gap down and sharp decline last Friday, stocks... READ MORE