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REVIEW OF 13-34 EMA COMBINATION -- DAILY COMBO TURNS POSITIVE -- WEEKLIES ALSO IMPROVE -- MONTHLY MACD HISTOGRAM SHOWS IMPROVEMENT -- UPSIDE TARGET IS A TEST OF 2009 HIGH BY MAY -- AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR RALLIES WITH COMMODITIES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DAILY EMA COMBO TURNS POSITIVE... I've received a number of requests to review the current position of the 13-34 exponential moving averages (EMAs). As you probably know, I place a lot of importance on that combination because of its strong track record over the years. I apply...
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QQQQ HITS NEW HIGH FOR 2009 DOW CHALLENGES 8000 DOW TRANSPORTS SHRUG OFF SURGING OIL REIT ISHARES TESTS CONSOLIDATION RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
QQQQ BREAKS 2009 HIGHS... News from around the globe brought buyers out in force on Thursday. First, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) announced new flexibility in mark-to-market accounting. Second, the G20 announced plans worth over $1 trillion to finance global trade and assist troubled countries. Chart 1...
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DOLLAR FALLS AS STOCKS RISE EURO SURGES AFTER RATE CUT YEN DECLINES AGAINST THE DOLLAR WEAK DOLLAR DOES NOT HELP GOLD OTHER COMMODITIES RISE ON DOLLAR WEAKNESS BASE METALS ETF CHALLENGES JANUARY HIGHS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOLLAR FALLS SHARPLY... The Dollar fell sharply as the appetite for risk surged on Thursday. Chart 1 shows the US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) in green with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in black. Notice how the Dollar advanced as stocks swooned in the first two months of...
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NET NEW HIGHS APPROACH POSITIVE TERRITORY DIA BATTLES 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE XLF AND RKH FORM CONSOLIDATIONS GLD PULLS BACK AFTER BIG SURGE VM WARE CHALLENGES RESISTANCE MEMC TESTS BREAKOUT BRISTOL MEYERS SURGES ON BIG VOLUME
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NET NEW HIGHS APPROACHING ZERO... Net New Highs can help distinguish between bear market rallies and sustainable advances. First, let's review the Net New Highs indicator. I apply a 10-day simple moving average to smooth the data series. The market has a bullish bias when there are...
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AFTER RISING MORE THAN 20% DURING MARCH, MARKET INDEXES ARE ENTITLED TO A PULLBACK -- FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LINES SHOW POTENTIAL SUPPORT LEVELS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RETRACEMENT SUPPORT LEVELS... The market has risen more than 20% since March 9 and is certainly entitled to a pullback. And it got one today. The good news is that the day's decline occurred on relatively light volume. While most groups fell, the biggest selling was seen in...
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FINANCIALS LEAD STOCKS LOWER AS 50-DAY AVERAGES ARE BEING BROKEN -- TREASURY BONDS, THE DOLLAR, AND GOLD ARE BOUNCING -- MOST OTHER COMMODITIES ARE DOWN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SUPPORT LEVELS ON HOURLY CHARTS... Global stocks are having a bad day. The S&P 500 is down -3.5% and is trading below its 50-day moving average. A close below that line would be a setback for the March rally . The Dow and the NYSE Composite Index...
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Chaikin Money Flow Study ($SPX)
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Often we get asked "What settings should I use on my indicators? What's the best?" and our answer is the always infuriating "It depends." The chart above shows why "It depends" is always...
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USING PERFORMANCE CHARTS TO SPOT INDUSTRY GROUP LEADERS -- 2009 LEADERS ARE INTERNET, SEMICONDUCTORS, OIL SERVICE, GOLD & SILVER, RETAIL, AND HOUSING -- ROTATION MODEL SHOWS IMPROVEMENT -- DROP IN EURO CAUSES SOME PROFIT-TAKING IN STOCKS AND COMMODITIES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
PERFORMANCE CHARTS... One of our readers asked what tools we use to spot sector and industry group leaders. One of the easiest ways is to use the Performance Charts on our main menu. By clicking on that choice, you can chart group performance for U.S. stock indexes, commodity groups,...
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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY LEADS MARKET HIGHER RETAIL SPDR CLOSES IN ON 200-DAY SOFTWARE HOLDRS AND NETWORKING ISHARES TRACE OUT DOUBLE BOTTOMS SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDRS AND INTERNET ETF BREAK TO NEW HIGHS QQQQ TURNS POSITIVE FOR 2009
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR SURGES OVER 4% ... Led by strength in retail and transports, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) surged 4.61% on Thursday. Chart 1 shows XLY up almost 29% in the last 13 days. This surge compares to the advance from late November until early December - when XLY advanced...
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FED PUSHES YIELDS LOWER TREASURY NOTE ETF BREAKS RESISTANCE TREASURY BOND ETF REMAINS RANGE BOUND INFLATION-PROTECTED BONDS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM - YEN GIVES UP LAST WEEK'S GAINS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
QE AND BONDS YIELDS... Bonds surged after the Fed announced its plan to purchase some $300 billion of long-term Treasuries last Wednesday. This quantitative easing (QE) is designed to push Treasuries higher and yields lower. Remember, yields move down as Treasuries move up. Chart 1 shows the relationship between...
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STOCKS RIDE THE ROLLERCOASTER SPY STALLS IN RESISTANCE ZONE QQQQ FORMS SPINNING TOP CANDLESTICK FINANCIAL ETFS REMAIN OVERBOUGHT REITS LAG THE MARKET DOLLAR TAKES A PUNCH GOLD BOUNCES ON DOLLAR WEAKNESS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WILD DAY FOR STOCKS... Stocks went on a wild ride Wednesday. The S&P 500 started strong with a 2% surge in the first hour, but weakened and declined sharply into the afternoon. A final-hour surge pushed the index back into positive territory to end with a modest...
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Catapulting Bulls (PL)
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The "Bullish Catapult" P&F pattern is a great way to find stocks that are breaking out above resistance. Today, Protective Life Corp. (PL) was the only high volume stock to create a new Bullish Catapult pattern when...
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POSITIVE CHART DIVERGENCES SHOW MARKET IMPROVEMENT -- SECTOR ROTATIONS SHOW CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS OUTPLACING STAPLES -- STOCKS SEE MINOR PROFIT-TAKING ON LOWER VOLUME
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
POSITIVE DIVERGENCES... I made mention yesterday of the fact that several of our technical indicators were looking more positive. I'm referring primarily to "positive divergences" that have shown up during the most recent first quarter price drop. Here are two that I've shown before....
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TREASURY PLAN TO BUY TOXIC ASSETS SPARKS STRONG STOCK DAY LED BY FINANCIALS AND HOMEBUILDERS -- COPPER AND OIL LEAD COMMODITY RALLY EASING DEFLATION FEARS -- CHINA AND EMERGING MARKETS SHOW UPSIDE LEADERSHIP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 CLEARS 800 RESISTANCE AND 50-DAY AVERAGE... The Treasury's trillion dollar plan for buying bank toxic assets, combined with a strong February housing figure, sparked a strong day in both stocks and commodity markets. Financials and energy were the two strongest groups. Homebuilders and...
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TREASURY PLAN TO BUY BANK TOXIC ASSETS SENDS STOCKS HIGHER -- FINANCIALS AND HOMEBUILDERS LEAD RALLY -- ENERGY HAS STRONG DAY ON RISING COMMODITIES-- CHINA CONTINUES TO SHOW LEADERSHIP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET HIGHER... In a repeat of how we started last week, financials are the leading a strong market rally today. The main catalyst is the Treasury's announcement of a one trillion public-private plan to buy banks' toxic assets. A jump in February existing home...
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GOLD STOCKS TOP 200-DAY AVERAGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The Fed's midweek surprise announcement that it was buying Treasury bonds had a fairly predictable ripple effect through the various financial markets. Naturally, Treasury bond prices jumped and yields collapsed. The big drop in bond yields pushed the dollar sharply lower and commodities higher. As Arthur Hill described...
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FOCUSING ENERGY ON COMMODITIES
by Richard Rhodes,
Founder and President, Rhodes Capital Management and Rhodes Trading Group
The FOMC has now become very serious to put an end to the financial crisis. To put it simply, Wednesday's FOMC announcement that they plan to roll the printing presses in order to buy $200 billion in longer-dated treasury paper is certainly a "positive." This...
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LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
The market performance the last two weeks was very impressive. Was it simply a sequel to the bounces we saw in October and November? That is certainly a possibility, but we saw a few sparks in this rally. For instance, the volume that exploded in financials must be respected. Perhaps...
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SPY HITS RESISTANCE
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After a sharp advance the last two weeks, SPY hit a classic resistance zone and pulled back over the last two days. Three items confirm resistance in the low 80s. First, broken support around 80-81 turns into resistance. Second, the falling 50-day moving average marks resistance. Third, the...
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NEW LOOK, NEW FEATURES, NEW NAME FOR OUR MARKET MESSAGE SERVICE
Today we're unveiling several design changes to the "John Murphy" area of our website. These changes include:
* A new, cleaner design that echos the look of our free commentary areas - i.e. out blogs (i.e., this page!)
* Email notifications that let subscribers see the title...
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 101 - PART 4
This is the fourth part of a series of articles about Technical Analysis from a new course we're developing. If you are new to charting, these articles will give you the "big picture" behind the charts on our site. if you are an "old hand&...
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WEEK'S BIG WINNERS WERE GOLD AND TIPS AS INVESTORS BUY INFLATION HEDGES -- OIL SERVICE AND SEMICONDUCTOR INDEXES BACK OFF FROM 2009 HIGHS -- S&P 500 PULLS BACK FROM 800 LEAVING ROOM FOR ONE MORE DIP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD STOCKS TOP 200-DAY AVERAGE... The Fed's midweek surprise announcement that it was buying Treasury bonds had a fairly predictable ripple effect through the various financial markets. Naturally, Treasury bond prices jumped and yields collapsed. The big drop in bond yields pushed the dollar sharply lower and...
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Bullish Percent Sector Indices Moving Higher
Click here for a live version of this chart.
Click here for a live version of this chart.
Bullish Percent indexes show the percentage of stocks in a given group that have a "Buy Signal" on their P&F chart. Above are charts with the 11 different...
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SHORT-TERM TOP
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
Quite a few years ago I used to write a daily newsletter, but I decided to give it up because it got tiresome trying to invent new ways to say the same thing over and over. More important, having to form an opinion on the market every single day, especially...
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Singing in the (Ticker) Rain (FAS/FAZ)
Click here to start watching Ticker Rain
This is not your typical stock chart. This is what you see after running our Ticker Rain program for a while. It can show you what tickers are popular on StockCharts.com. More importantly, it can show you what everyone else is looking...
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FINANCIALS TAKE A BREATHER BEARISH CANDLESTICKS FOR GOLDMAN, MORGAN STANLEY AND JP MORGAN CHASE MATERIALS AND ENERGY FOLLOW COMMODITIES HIGHER ALCAO SURGES ON BIG VOLUME
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCIALS PULLBACK FROM OVERBOUGHT LEVELS... A day after the big Fed announcement, financial stocks declined from overbought levels. As noted yesterday, the Financials SPDR (XLF) and Regional Bank HOLDRS (RKH) were up substantially over the last two weeks. Charts 1 and 2 show both exceeding their 50-day moving averages...
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DOLLAR BEARISH ETF SURGES ON BIG VOLUME OIL BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE AGRICULTURE ETF BREAKS CHANNEL RESISTANCE NATURAL GAS ETF GETS OVERSOLD BOUNCE SILVER ETF BREAKS WEDGE RESISTANCE BASE METALS ETF CHALLENGES RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOLLAR CONTINUES TO FALL... In a continuation from yesterday's breakdown, the US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) extended its fall in early trading on Thursday. Chart 1 shows the ETF down over 1% with move below 25. The bottom indicator window shows UUP with the S&P 500...
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Bouncing Off Bollinger Bands (MTXX)
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How are your money management skills these days? Here's a real test for you:
Over the past 10 months, MTXX has been bouncing up and down between roughly 14 and 19. One of the first signals that the stock...
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STOCKS RALLY AFTER FED STATEMENT FINANCIALS LEAD HIGHER HHH AND SMH HIT RESISTANCE BONDS SURGE AS RATES PLUNGE DOLLAR PLUNGES IN RESPONSE TO FED GOLD REVERSES TO CLOSE STRONG BONDS SURGE ON BOND PURCHASE PLAN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FED STATEMENT STOKES THE BULLS... Stocks surged after the Fed announced plans to buy long-term Treasury bonds and increase its purchases of mortgage-backed securities. With today's announcement, the Fed is set to expand its balance sheet by over $1 trillion. With the money spigot open, the...
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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS SHOW LEADERSHIP --HOME DEPOT AND RETAILERS HAVE STRONG DAY -- HOMEBUILDERS SHOW FIRST OF STABILIZATION IN NEARLY FOUR YEARS -- SEMIS AND OIL SERVICE STOCKS ALSO LEAD RALLY -- S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 800 BARRIER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ANOTHER GLIMMER OF HOPE... Over the last week, we've been writing about a stronger tone in financial stocks and the positive impact that's having on the rest of the market. Today, we're seeing another glimmer of hope in a rebounding consumer discretionary sector which...
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FINANCIALS LEAD OVERSOLD MARKET HIGHER -- OTHER POSITIVES INCLUDE A PULLBACK IN THE DOLLAR, BONDS, AND GOLD AND BOUNCE IN COPPER AND OIL -- CHINA SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
AIG IS TODAY'S FINANCIAL LEADER... Most of today's headline is a repeat of the one I posted at midday last Tuesday just as the current market bounce was starting. I'm posting it again today to show that all of those positive forces are still...
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Berkshire's "Flight to Safety" Breakouts (BRK/B)
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Continuing to look for "leading" technical signals that pointed to the market's recent crash. It's always interesting to see how the country's "best" investor did. Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway...
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WHICH ELLIOTT FIFTH WAVE IS BEING COMPLETED? -- DOW THEORY OVERLAPS WITH ELLIOTT WAVE -- THE DOW HAS COMPLETED A MAJOR DOWNSIDE TARGET -- WEEKLY RSI SHOWS BULLISH DIVERGENCE -- STOCKS MAY NEED ONE MORE DIP TO COMPLETE BOTTOM
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WHICH FIFTH WAVE IS THE MARKET COMPLETING?... On Tuesday, I offered my view of the current Elliott Wave structure. I suggested that the last leg down starting in January appeared close to completing the entire Wave 3 that started last May. That would pave the way for a Wave 4...
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Gold at 700 was the Beginning of the End
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The S&P 500 Index (yellow line) hit its most recent high in early October of 2007 (red arrow). Since then it's been all downhill. Were there any clear warning signs before the plunge began?
It's...
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MARCH MADNESS HITS WALL STREET - KEY SECTORS LEAD ADVANCE SPX VOLUME REMAINS HIGH VIX BREAKS FEBRUARY LOW OIL BECOMES OVERBOUGHT FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS LEAD ... For the second time in three days, stocks surged with a broad advance on good volume. All sectors were up and almost all industry groups were higher. Small-caps led the way as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained over 6%. Mid-caps were...
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GOLD BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT SWISS FRANC WEIGHS ON EURO WEAK EURO BOOSTS GOLD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD GETS ANOTHER OVERSOLD BOUNCE... For the second time in as many weeks, the Gold SPDR (GLD) is bouncing off support after becoming oversold. Last week I showed GLD as 3-period RSI became oversold. This bounce did not hold as gold returned to support early this week. Once again,...
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S&P Bullish Percent Chart Turning Upwards ($BPSPX)
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Bullish Percent charts track the percentage of stocks in a specified group that have a P&F "Buy Signal" on their charts. While the large-scale Bullish Percent indexes - the NYSE's ( $BPNYA) and the Nasdaq&...
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EURO BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT BOND ETF REMAINS RANGE BOUND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EURO EXTENDS ITS BOUNCE... Continued strength in stocks pushed the euro higher again on Wednesday. As John Murphy suggested on Tuesday, the dollar was part of the flight-to-safety trade. Conversely, the euro suffered in a risk-averse environment. With a big surge in stocks on Tuesday, risk-aversion...
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BREADTH SURGES ON BIG MOVE - SPX VOLUME VALIDATES SURGE - NDX VOLUME IS UNIMPRESSIVE - BEAR MARKET RALLIES CAN BE SHARP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BREADTH SURGES ON NASDAQ AND NYSE ... Market breadth provides a means to measure the degree of participation in a market move. After big moves, breadth and volume are my first ports of call to judge the robustness of a move especially an advance. Advances with strong breadth and high volume...
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S&P 500 COMES CLOSE TO 62% FIBONACCI TARGET NEAR 660 -- ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS BEAR MARKET IS CLOSE TO COMPLETING WAVE 3 WHICH STARTED LAST MAY -- THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A WAVE FOUR BOUNCE AND ONE MORE DOWNWAVE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 COMES VERY CLOSE TO 62% RETRACEMENT ... Some of our readers have asked me to revisit potential downside targets for the market. Chart 1 is an updated version of a chart I showed on February 27. That earlier chart showed that a 62% retracement of the secular...
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