As we approach the end of the year, we find world stock markets attempting to trade a bit higher, although volatility remains quite high, but off it's worst high levels. However, we believe it shall not be low for very long; hence our propensity is to use this... READ MORE
A reliable measure of the market's strength or weakness can be found in the % of NYSE stocks trading above their 200-day averages. That's because 200-day averages are used to measure a market's long-term trend. [A 50-day line measures short- and... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Happy Holidays and welcome to our December issue of ChartWatchers. We only do one newsletter in December and so you can bet it's a good one. John, Arthur, Carl, Richard and Tom are all focused on the market but I wanted to take time today... READ MORE
% OF NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 50 MA... With all the recent focus on the major market indexes testing their 50-day moving averages, I thought it a good time to look at another indicator that measures the % of NYSE stocks that are trading above their 50-day averages. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
CHINA LEADS GLOBAL BOUNCE ... One of our readers asked recently if China was starting to show any new signs of relative strength. After this week's upturn, the answer is yes. With so many markets rallying up to test their 50-day averages, China iShares (FXI) have cleared that... READ MORE
STOCKS FINISH POSITIVE IN CHOPPY TRADING ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor Trading was rather choppy on Wednesday, but the major indices ended on a strong note and closed with modest gains on the day. In a nutshell, the materials... READ MORE
DON'T TRADE OFF ECONOMIC NEWS ... We had a nice example last Friday of the stock market rallying on very bad economic news. Friday's employment report was the worst in more than thirty years. And yet, the stock market rallied after a lower opening. Media watchers were... READ MORE
DOLLAR DROPS TOWARD NOVEMBER LOW ... A strong bounce in foreign currencies, and a drop in the U.S. Dollar, is giving a nice boost to commodity markets and stocks tied to them. Basic material, gold, and energy stocks are helping lead the stock market higher. So are consumer discretionary and... READ MORE
$40 WAS THE PREVIOUS OIL CEILING ... With crude oil having fallen $100 from its summer peak, and trading back below $50, the big question is whether there exists some price level that could stem the oil plunge and act as a possible floor beneath that market. My best guess is... READ MORE
FINANCIALS LEAD LATE SURGE ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor Stocks traded mixed most of the day, but a late surge lifted the major indices to their highest levels of the day and financials led the way. The Dow Industrials... READ MORE
DON'T CONFUSE SHORT- AND LONG-TERM TRENDS... I get the impression from recent feedback that some of our readers aren't clear about terms like "short-term" and "long-term" in describing market trends. It's important not to confuse the two.... READ MORE
TIPS LAG BEHIND BOND RALLY ... Since commodities prices collapsed at midyear, fears of global deflation have grown. Longer-yielding Treasuries have been the principal beneficiary of that. Today's Fed comment that it may start buying longer-term Treasuries to push bond yields even lower have also given bond... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM TREND HAS IMPROVED ... I wrote on Monday that I thought the major market indexes could reach their early November peak and/or their 50-day moving averages on the current rebound. That's not such an ambitious forecast. Even so, a number of readers asked why I... READ MORE
NYSE COMPOSITE JUMPS 7% ... Thanks largely to a government bailout of Citigroup that pushed that stock up nearly 60% today, financials gained 15% and helped ignite a 6% jump in market market indexes. It was the first two-day jump this month, and it occurred on decent volume and positive... READ MORE
FINANCIALS LEAD RALLY ... A government rescue plan for Citigroup is pushing that stock 60% higher this morning and giving a big boost to the financial sector which is gaining more than 10% on the day. Financial buying has spilled over to the entire stock market which is trying to build... READ MORE
GOLD HITS MONTHLY HIGH ... I wrote in yesterday's message that recent fears of deflation were giving a big boost to Treasury bonds. I also wrote that, in a deflationary environment, stocks and commodities usually fall together and become closely correlated. That's certainly been the case since... READ MORE
WHERE THOSE LOWS ARE LOCATED ... The 2002 bear market lows are under attack. Charts 1 and 2 show where those lows are located for the S&P 500 and the Dow. A 6.7% plunge in the S&P 500 put it below the 2002 intra-day low... READ MORE
ANOTHER WEDNESDAY WHACK ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The Dow Industrials declined for the tenth Wednesday in a row on 19 November. This is becoming a habit with five of the last six Wednesdays sporting declines greater than 4%... READ MORE
DOLLAR RISES AS COMMODITIES FALL ... Chart 1 show the Power Shares US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) moving up toward its October high. The ability of the dollar to continue its rise is keeping commodities under pressure. The streetTrack Gold Trust (GLD) in Chart 2 is almost a mirror image of... READ MORE
NO FOLLOW-THROUGH TO KEY REVERSAL DAY ... Last Thursday's upside reversal day on strong volume raised hopes for a short-term rally attempt. Unfortunately, there's been no upside follow-through since then. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 losing ground... READ MORE
This has been one ugly bear season. It cannot be compared to anything else seen on the S&P 500 since 1950. Not even close. But I'll say one thing - there's an awful lot of horrible economic news priced into this market right now. I... READ MORE
The Dow Industrials surged off support for the fourth time in five weeks. Will this bounce produce a breakout or failure? As the candlestick chart below shows, the Dow Industrials is locked in a volatile trading range with support around 8000 and resistance around 9700. The Dow dipped below 8250... READ MORE
Decision Point charts a couple of indicators that are useful in determining investor sentiment based on actual deployment of cash into Rydex mutual funds. The Rydex Asset Ratio is calculated by dividing total assets in Bear plus Money Market funds by total assets in Bull funds. The Rydex Cash Flow... READ MORE
After dropping briefly to the lowest level since March 2003, the S&P 500 achieved an upside reversal day (as did all of the other major indexes) that resulted in a 6% gain. It also did that on the highest volume in weeks. The fact that the S&... READ MORE
StockCharts.com is all about visually representing what's going on in the markets. Here's a sobering visual representation for you: Daily NYSE High-Low Line: Weekly NYSE High-Low Line: You can view these two charts anytime at https://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$NYHL The... READ MORE
S&P JUMPS 6% AFTER TOUCHING NEW LOW... After dropping briefly to the lowest level since March 2003, the S&P 500 achieved an upside reversal day (as did all of the other major indexes) that resulted in a 6% gain. It also did that on the highest... READ MORE
ANOTHER DOWN WEDNESDAY ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor What is it with Wednesdays? The Dow Industrials declined for the ninth Wednesday in a row. Of these nine down Wednesdays, the Dow was down more than 2% six times. The... READ MORE
CYCLICAL STOCKS CONTINUE TO UNDERFORM ... One of the easiest ways to measure the strength or weakness of the stock market and economy is to compare the relative performance of economically-sensitive stocks (cyclicals) to economically-resistant stocks. The logic is very simple. In an up market (and a rising economy)... READ MORE
ECONOMISTS ARE ALWAYS THE LAST TO KNOW... Friday's report that the unemployment rate jumped to a fourteen year high of 6.5% has finally convinced the economic community that the U.S. economy is in a recession and a deep one at that. As a result, we'... READ MORE
WEEKLY EMA PERFORMANCE ... I wrote recently about the strong track record of the 13 and 34 week exponential moving average (EMA) lines in spotting important market turns. One of our readers asked how that weekly combination did over the past thirty years. Here's a look. I'm... READ MORE
BROAD SELLING PRESSURE HITS WALL STREET ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor After moving sharply higher the last six days, the market took a big breather with a sharp decline on Wednesday. Selling pressure started with a gap down on... READ MORE
LIBOR AND VIX CONTINUE TO DROP ... Short-term market conditions continue to improve. One reflection of that is the continuing drop in the LIBOR lending rate (London Interbank Offered Rate). Chart 1 shows the three-month LIBOR dropping another 15 basis points today to 2.71% which is the lowest... READ MORE
Previously, I've mentioned a favorite indicator of mine - The Bowley Trend. The Bowley Trend is an analysis of stock market history, dating back to 1950 on the S&P 500 and 1971 on the NASDAQ. It identifies discernible bullish and bearish trends that have emerged over time... READ MORE
The Amex Airline Index ($XAL) is leading the market higher with a break above two key moving averages this week. XAL produced one of the sharpest October recoveries with surge from 14 to 25 over the last three weeks. This surge carried the index above the 50-day moving average... READ MORE
When the market changes, we must change our tactics, strategies, and analysis techniques to accommodate the new market conditions. This is not a new idea, but it is one that is not very widely recognized, particularly when applied to the long-term. In recent writings I have emphasized that we... READ MORE
The world stock markets remain rather "volatile" as the credit crisis continues to unfold, while this volatility pendulum continues to create some very unique and interesting value propositions we haven't seen in quite some time. Our focus at present is the relative relationship of the Oil... READ MORE
One of the recent positive trends is the continuing drop in the three-month London Interbank Overnight Lending Rate (LIBOR). That rate determines what banks charge each other for loans. During the credit freeze that started in mid-September, the LIBOR jumped from 2.8% to 4.8% as stocks... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers, As you (hopefully) know already, StockCharts.com also has an online bookstore that is dedicated to providing great investment-oriented books at great prices. (We work hard to keep the prices as low as possible. No, seriously! From a business perspective we just want to break even... READ MORE
LIBOR DROP ENCOURAGES MARKETS ... One of the recent positive trends is the continuing drop in the three-month London Interbank Overnight Lending Rate (LIBOR). That rate determines what banks charge each other for loans. During the credit freeze that started in mid-September, the LIBOR jumped from 2.8% to... READ MORE
VOLUME REMAINS LIGHT ... In a legitimate upturn, one of the first things we look for is rising prices and rising volume. We've seen a modest price upturn over the past week, but very little volume to go along with it. Today's price bounce came on lower... READ MORE