GOLD IS DOING BETTER THAN OIL ... I've recently turned more cautious on the oil sector while turning more optimistic on precious metals. That may seem like a contradiction since both are commodity markets and do have some historical correlation. Part of my reasoning is based on fundamental considerations.... READ MORE
GLAMIS JUMPS 20% ... The announcement that Goldcorp (GG) is buying Glamis Gold (GLG) is causing dramatic swings in both gold stocks. Chart 1 shows Glamis Gold surging nearly 20% (on massive volume) to a new 52-week high. At the same time, Goldcorp is falling 8.5% on heavy volume.... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM ENERGY TREND TURNS DOWN... With energy prices continuing to drop, selling pressure has intensified in energy stocks. On Monday, I warned that the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) was headed for a test of its 50-day moving average. Chart 1 shows the XLE breaking that support line today.... READ MORE
HURRICANE MISSES GULF COAST... News that a hurricane threat to oil refineries in the Gulf of Mexico had passed caused heavy selling in the energy pits today and took most other commodity markets lower as well. Crude oil prices fell more than $2.00. Chart 1 shows the nearby futures... READ MORE
2006 LEADERS... If you glance at "John's Latest Performance Chart" you'll see the best and worst group performances for the first eight months of 2006. It shows the six top performers for the year compared to the four worst. The six winners have something... READ MORE
CRB INDEX TESTING JUNE LOW ... Last week I showed the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index slipping beneath its 200-day moving average and warned that it was starting to look toppy. The real key to the chart, however, is the ability of CRB Index to stay above its June low at... READ MORE
The Russell 2000 has been lagging the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 over the last few months. Even with the big bounce off support this past week, the Russell 2000 remains below its August high. In contrast, the S&P 500 and Dow broke above their June... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 Index has declined farther than the broader indexes, and it has been slower in turning around; however, this week the index has turned the corner, and appears ready for a continued advance. The only problem is that it has become short-term overbought. To demonstrate, let'... READ MORE
Our recent comments stating we believe a bear market in technology stocks via the NASDAQ 100 has begun remains valid; however, our technical bearish must be tempered somewhat by last week's sharp rally. Quite simply, the rally has put monthly prices back above the 25-month moving average... READ MORE
AUTO-REFRESHING CHARTS - We're continuing to monitor and tune the performance of our new Auto-Refreshing charts feature and so far things are going very, very well. We've heard feedback from tons of people saying that they really love this new capability. Here's what... READ MORE
I wrote yesterday about recent selling in commmodity pits pushing the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index into a test of its 200-day average. Today's five point drop has pushed it below that long-term support line in pretty decisive fashion (see red arrow). Chart 1 shows the CRB... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! There hasn't been much talk about it in the press but the Dow Industrials has continued its slow rise to new heights. How high? On the follow chart you can see that there are only two labelled peaks that are higher than the Dow'... READ MORE
CRB BREAKS 200-DAY AVERAGE ... I wrote yesterday about recent selling in commmodity pits pushing the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index into a test of its 200-day average. Today's five point drop has pushed it below that long-term support line in pretty decisive fashion (see red arrow)... READ MORE
JULY CPI HAS SLOWEST GAIN IN FIVE MONTHS ... The market got a second dose of good news on inflation in two days. On the heels of yesterday's weak PPI number, today's report showed a gain of only 0.2% in the July core CPI number which... READ MORE
WEAK PPI BOOSTS BONDS AND STOCKS... Core inflation at the producer level fell unexpectedly during July. Since inflation is the most closely watched figure these days (because of its impact on Fed decision-making), bonds and stocks rallied on the news. The dollar dropped. For the first time in awhile,... READ MORE
STRONG RETAIL NUMBERS AND IMPORT PRICES ... The market is having second thoughts about the Fed being done with its rate hiking. A strong retail report today and a big jump in import prices suggest that the economy and inflation may be a little stronger than expected. I agree with the... READ MORE
GOLD ETF NEARS WEEKLY BUY SIGNAL ... I suggested yesterday that gold could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Fed inaction on rates. That was predicated on my view that the dollar would weaken. In today's trading, the dollar is indeed dropping and gold prices are rising. This... READ MORE
RETAILERS AND HOMEBUILDERS FALL... The Fed paused today as pretty much everyone expected. Unfortunately, the stock market fell on the news. Part of the reason may have had to do with the wording of the accompanying statement. The Fed acknowledged economic slowing, especially in the housing sector. Its claim (or... READ MORE
On the weekly QQQQ chart, it is clear that the stock remains in a falling price channel and has yet to break key resistance at 38. There are two falling price channels on the chart (magenta trendlines) and lessons from the first can be applied to now to identify a... READ MORE
The decline from the May top, and the subsequent sideways chopping have been hard on investors' nerves as they try to decide how things will eventually resolve; however, even though the rising trend line has been challenged twice in the last few months, the technical picture has been steadily... READ MORE
See Chip's article at the top of this newsletter for more details.... READ MORE
The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected during July and the unemployment report rose for the first time in five months to 4.8% from 4.6%. The weak job report is the latest in a string of signs that the economy is weakening. That's usually... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! This week we are pleased to announce a brand new feature for StockCharts.com users - Automatically Updating Charts! Starting Monday when the market opens, members of our "Extra" service will have a new way to watch the market. On the SharpCharts Workbench page, Extra members... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS HIT FOUR-MONTH LOW... The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected during July and the unemployment report rose for the first time in five months to 4.8% from 4.6%. The weak job report is the latest in a string of signs that the economy... READ MORE
US DOLLAR IS ROLLING OVER ... Recent reports of economic weakening, combined with diminished expectations for additional rate hikes by the Fed, are causing selling in the dollar. Chart 1 (plotted through Tuesday) shows the U.S. Dollar Index starting to roll over to the downside over the last week. The... READ MORE
NATURAL GAS SPIKES ON HOT WEATHER... While everyone has been looking at the rising price of crude oil and gasoline, natural gas prices have declined for most of the year -- until the last week. Unusually hot weather conditions have produced an impressive spike in natural gas prices which climbed over... READ MORE
SECOND QUARTER GDP DROPS SHARPLY... Today's report that U.S. second quarter growth fell to 2.5%, which is less than half of the first quarter's +5.6%, carries both good and bad news. The bad news is that the economy is slowing. The good news... READ MORE
FEDEX LEADS TRANSPORTS LOWER ... The transportation sector continues to get battered. Yesterday we showed UPS and a couple of rail stocks falling below their 200-day lines. Today's most notable casualty is FedEx. Chart 1 shows that stock breaking both its 200-day line and its June low.... READ MORE
DOW INDUSTRIALS VS. INDUSTRIALS SPDR ... I've written several times over the past few months that the Dow Industrials were holding up a little better than the rest of the market, and interpreted that to mean that investors were switching from riskier small cap stocks into more stable industrials.... READ MORE
AT&T HITS NEW FOUR-YEAR HIGH ... Although the market remains in a short-term rally mode, upside leadership keeps coming from traditionally defensive groups. Today's standout Dow performer was AT&T which surged to the highest level in four years. The daily bars in Chart... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE IS GETTING BETTER... On Friday I wrote about how the big pharmas were attracting some serious money and were starting to pull the entire healthcare sector higher. I showed the daily chart of the Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV) and suggested that it needed a close over its 200-... READ MORE
DRUGS LEAD HEALTHCARE HIGHER... Whenever we list defensive groups that usually do better when the market gets into trouble, the usual candidates are consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare. Consumer staples and utilities have continued to be the market's top performers over the last couple of months. It looks... READ MORE
MARKET LIKES FED COMMENTS ... The bond and stock markets liked what Mr. Bernanke had to say today before Congress. He indicated that economic growth and inflation were moderating which was taken to mean that the Fed might be nearing the end of its rate hikes. Bond prices rose and yields... READ MORE
DOLLAR BUYING PUSHES GOLD LOWER ... Yesterday saw the first serious selling of gold and silver in more than a month. Part of that selling is due to technical factors. Part of it is also due to a rising dollar. While geopolitical concerns have helped boost gold and oil prices recently,... READ MORE
While both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are showing the effects of the current correction, there are significant differences in the technical picture on both charts. With the S&P 500 we might ask, "Where's the bear?" The 50-EMA of price... READ MORE
We believe that the Semiconductor Index (SOX) is poised to move sharply lower in the months ahead into a tradable bottom. Our target is rising trendline support near 280, which presupposes a decline of -31% between now and then. Our reasoning is rather simple: First, the fundamental backdrop has been,... READ MORE
FIVE YEARS WITHOUT A PRICE INCREASE! - StockCharts.com introduced our "Extra" service five years ago and our price then was the same as it is now. StockCharts is still a great value folks. And - for you cynics out there - we have absolutely no plans to raise prices in... READ MORE
Earlier in the week I showed a number of moving averages that appeared to be on the verge of giving major sell signals. Here's another long-term support line to watch. The S&P 500 is bearing down on a two-year support line that starts in... READ MORE
Three big down days have sent the Dow back down to the 10,700 support level. What's that you say? 10,700 is just a number? Just a number like any other? Oh really? Check out this chart: 10,700 is a number that should make your ears... READ MORE
HOMEBUILDERS CONTINUE TO CRUMBLE... Yesterday I wrote about how relative weakness in retail stocks over the last year was an early sign that higher energy prices and rising interest rates were starting to hurt the economy and the stock market. It was reported this morning that June's retail... READ MORE