ANOTHER NEW BOOK IN OUR BOOKSTORE - Investing in a Secular Bear Market by Michael Alexander This is the sequel to his 2000 book, Stock Cycles, which forecast the start of this secular bear market.... READ MORE
The bars in the following chart show the best and worst group performers for the first half of the year. To no one's surprise, energy was the top sector -- while the fuel-sensitive transports were the weakest. Utilities took second place thanks to falling bond yields. Another defensive... READ MORE
The market erased the gains that we highlighted in our previous newsletter in one day as the 10,600 level on the Dow proved once again that it is an important level for the market. This week's big news of course was the Fed's rate hike.... READ MORE
FIRST HALF RESULTS... The bars in the following chart show the best and worst group performers for the first half of the year. To no one's surprise, energy was the top sector -- while the fuel-sensitive transports were the weakest. Utilities took second place thanks to falling bond... READ MORE
OIL ETFS STAY OVER BREAKOUT POINTS ... Despite the recent dip in oil prices, energy ETFs have held up relatively well. They're rising today on the back of a jump in the price of crude. Chart 1 shows the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) staying over its March high near... READ MORE
THE FED DOES IT AGAIN ... The Fed raised the Fed funds rate another quarter point today. Although its wording showed little change from last month, it appears that the stock market was hoping for a sign that the Fed tightening cycle is nearing an end. When it didn't... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS GET LEFT FROM OIL DROP... With crude oil dropping more than $2 today, transportation stocks are getting a much needed lift. And it's coming at a good time. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports flirting with the late-April/early May lows ranging from 3350 to 3400.... READ MORE
RISING OIL IS HURTING TRANSPORTS THE MOST ... It's normal to expect that record high oil prices are hitting the fuel-sensitive transportation stocks the hardest. Last week I showed the Dow Transports falling to a new monthly low after breaking their moving average lines. With crude now trading... READ MORE
BHI HAS JUST HIT ALL-TIME HIGH... During my Friday evening interview on the Nightly Business Report, I recommended the Oil Service Holders (OIH) and Baker Hughes. I pointed out that BHI was the biggest holding in the OIH which had just exceeded its 2000 peak. They showed a 52-... READ MORE
THE MARKET ISN'T READY FOR $60 OIL... On Wednesday I suggested a more cautious view of the market due to the fact that several stock market indexes were up against resistance at their 2005 highs and in short-term overbought conditions. That's why Thursday's... READ MORE
DOW THEORISTS WON'T LIKE DROP IN TRANSPORTS ... Not too long ago I showed the Dow Transports dropping under their 200-day moving average and suggested that was a negative sign for Dow Theorists. Today's drop in the transports makes that situation even worse. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
GOLD JUMPS $4... The rally in gold continues. In today's trading, bullion has risen $4.00 and is trading at a new three-month high. Chart 1 shows the Gold ETF (GLD) having broken its eight-month down trendline and moving to up to test its March high.... READ MORE
A KEY TEST IS GOING ON IN A LOT OF INDEXES... While most market observers are watching the Dow and the S&P 500, it's important to recognize that several market indexes have already reached their 2005 highs and are undergoing an important test of that resistance... READ MORE
VALUE IS STILL IN THE LEAD ... One of the battles going on in the market is the one between large cap value versus growth. Charts 1 and 2 show a six-month comparison of two ETFs that reflect those two market segments. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500... READ MORE
DOLLAR IS STILL IN RALLY PHASE OFF 1995 LOW... Near the start of 2005, I showed a monthly chart of the Dollar Index similar to the one shown in Chart 1. The point of the earlier chart was to warn dollar bears that the USD was nearing a major support... READ MORE
BIOTECH INDEX TESTS EARLY 2004 HIGH ... On Friday I showed the Biotechnology Index breaking out to new 52-week high. It's hitting another new high today and very close to challenging its early 2004 high. There are several ways to participate in the biotech rally. One is buy... READ MORE
The Materials sector was all the rage in 2004, but fell on hard times in 2005. After a run from 23.59 to 31.99 (35%), the Materials SPDR (XLB) declined below 27 with a sharp decline. Was this enough to break the uptrend or is this just a sharp... READ MORE
While persistently rising prices are frustrating the bears and encouraging the bulls, there is evidence that distribution is taking place. On the first chart I have circled areas where daily volume has scooped below its 250-EMA line, indicating that there was inadequate sponsorship of the rising trend. In each... READ MORE
The recent S&P 500 price action above the 1190 level is rather impressive, and can be considered a correction in 'time' rather than in price. This suggests new highs; however, those highs aren't expected to be accompanied by new highs in the Nasdaq Composite.... READ MORE
Unexpected Returns by Ed Easterling A great book amplifying the merits of absolute return investing vs. relative return investing so often touted by Wall Street. New Trading Systems and Methods by Perry Kaufman This is the latest and biggest in this technical analysis classic. A must for indicator, systems, and... READ MORE
While a lot of attention has been paid to rising energy and basic material stocks this week, not much has been written about healthcare. It's time to correct that. Chart 1 shows the Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV) closing the week at a new 52-week high. [The... READ MORE
Seven straight days of gains has moved the Dow back above the 10,600 level - something that looks even more impressive given Friday's significant volume increase. Next week should see a test of 10,600 as the index tries to consolidate its gains. Watch closely to see if... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE ETF HITS 52-WEEK HIGH ... While a lot of attention has been paid to rising energy and basic material stocks this week, not much has been written about healthcare. It's time to correct that. Chart 1 shows the Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV) closing the week at... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 CORRECTION MAY BE ENDING ... I wrote earlier in the week that the market would have a hard time resuming its uptrend unless the Nasdaq started to move higher as well. That may very well be happening. One of the things I was looking for was a test of... READ MORE
MONEY IS FLOWING BACK INTO COMMODITY STOCKS... With commodity prices climbing again, it was just a matter of time until basic material stocks started to climb as well. Thanks to jumps in the price of copper and gold, the Materials Select SPDR (XLB) is the day's strongest sector.... READ MORE
MIDCAP INDEX REACHES NEW HIGH ... I recently showed the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index testing its early March high and suggested that what it did at that resistance barrier held an important clue to market direction. Chart 1 shows that the Mid Cap Index breaking through its 2005... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 HOLDING THE MARKET BACK ... Ever since the Nasdaq market backed off from its spring high a couple of weeks ago, the rest of the market rally has stalled. That's because the market needs Nasdaq leadership to continue its summer rally. Last week I showed the Nasdaq... READ MORE
RETAIL HOLDERS NEAR 2005 HIGH... Retail stocks are the day's strongest group. Chart 1 shows the Retail Holders (RTH) very close to reaching a new 2005 high. The better performance by the retail group has actually been going on since early May when its relative strength line bottomed... READ MORE
WHY EUROPE ISHARES HAVE BEEN FALLING ... While the major European stock indexes are at or close to new 52-week highs, it may seem puzzling to see European stock ETFs falling since March. Chart 1 shows the Europe 350 iShares (IEV) peaking in March and declining toward its 200-day... READ MORE
NYSE AND DOW ARE STUCK BELOW RESISTANCE ... So far this week I've shown three market leaders -- the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 400 Midcap, and the Semiconductor (SOX) Index -- all backing off from chart resistance near their spring highs. That loss of leadership has prevented any further... READ MORE
SELLING INTEL ON THE NEWS ... Yesterday I showed the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index testing its 2005 high, and suggested that it held an important key to short-term market direction. The same is true for the semiconductor group. A positive mid-quarter report from Intel last evening... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL HITS NEW RECOVERY HIGH... Earlier today I wrote about the bullish breakout in the energy sector. That strong action in energy stocks was confirmed by equally bullish action in the commodity. Crude oil surged over 5% today to reach the highest level in nearly two months. Crude appears... READ MORE
MIDCAPS HAVE BEEN THE STRONGEST ... Earlier in the week I showed the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index (MID) having already reached its March high. It's the first index to reach that important chart point. The MID/SPX ratio has been rising since the start of the... READ MORE
ENERGY ETFs ARE BREAKING OUT ... Yesterday I showed the two Energy ETFs that I track closely challenging their late April highs. A late drop in the price of oil yesterday prevented an upside breakout. With oil trading a dollar higher this afternoon, it looks like the bullish breakouts are taking... READ MORE
NASDAQ PULLS BACK FROM 2100 ... One of the reasons that the market rally remains stalled has to do with the inability of the Nasdaq Composite to get through its February/March highs at 2100. With the Nasdaq having moved into a short-term overbought condition, that was a logical spot... READ MORE
SELECT DIVIDEND ETF IS DOING RELATIVELY WELL... Earlier in the year I wrote that one of the places that I thought would do well this year were large-cap dividend paying stocks. That was based partially on my general negative view of the stock market. Large-cap dividend stocks provide... READ MORE
DROP IN INVENTORIES BOOSTS OIL BY A DOLLAR ... A big drop in oil inventories reported today is pushing crude oil nearly a dollar higher today. Crude has been consolidating over the last week within its recent uptrend. It still looks like like crude is going to test its March high... READ MORE
BPI BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT ... On May 25, I wrote a message about the NYSE Bullish Percent Index bouncing off support near 50, which kept the cyclical bull market intact (May 25, 2005). Chart 1 is an updated version of the chart in that earlier piece. To refresh your memory, the... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS RESUME DECLINE ... Last week the yields on the 10-year T-note fell below 4% to the lowest level in a year. That gave a boost to the stock market and especially to stocks tied to interest rates. After bouncing back to the 4% level on Monday, yields... READ MORE
GOLD IS ATTRACTING NEW ATTENTION... Over the last week I've shown the Gold & Silver (XAU) Index starting to bounce from potential chart support at its spring 2004 low, and the price of bullion bouncing off its February 2005 low. Last Friday I suggested it might be a... READ MORE