CISCO AND NSM PLUNGE TO 2004 LOWS... All one need do is look at the first two charts to see where most of today's selling came from. Cisco, which is often considered a bellwether for technology, plunged 10% today to register a new 2004 low. And it did... READ MORE
DOW BOUNCES FROM OVERSOLD CONDITION ... The Dow Industrials gained well over a hundred points today after the Fed's expected decision to raise short-term rates another quarter point. The Fed's continued optimism about the pace of the economy may have encouraged some bottom-fishing. That and... READ MORE
The AD Line is a cumulative measure of advances less declines within a given group of stocks. For example, the S&P Large-Growth ETF (IVW) has 335 stocks. If there were are 200 advances and 135 declines, then the difference would be +135 (335 - 200 = +135) and this... READ MORE
Recently, the price of crude oil has taken the spotlight as having a major influence on the price of stocks. On the one-year chart above we can see that there was no consistent relationship between oil and stocks as long as oil was priced below $35; however, when oil... READ MORE
The weakness over the past several months is stark, which was made "more so" over the past two-day decline in all the major indices due to rising energy prices as well as a "punk" employment report. As a consequence of each of reports (and others)... READ MORE
DATA FEED UPDATE - We're continuing to prepare for our upcoming data feed transition which we mentioned several editions ago. At this point, the new hardware is in place and working well and our testing is almost complete. We are working on getting the final paperwork in place from... READ MORE
DROP IN BOND YIELDS HURTS DOLLAR, HELPS GOLD... Bond prices surged on Friday's weak job report. As a result, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury note tumbled to a four-month low and ended below its 200-day moving average (Chart 1). The sharp drop in U.... READ MORE
The major markets sold off dramatically at the end of the week due, so we are told, to wild speculation in the oil market. The Dow closed at 9815 which is significant because it is less that the 9852 low that it set back in May. This is the "... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 BREAK MAY LOWS... With the Nasdaq market having already fallen to a new for the year, it was just a matter of time until the Dow and the S&P 500 did the same. They did that on Friday -- and on rising volume.... READ MORE
RETAILERS BREAK NECKLINE... Retailers got marked down today in a big way. Same stores sales for July rose at the second slowest level in nine months. Economists blame higher energy prices. That's simple economics. Yet most economists dismissed the threat from rising oil prices through the first half... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL MOVES OVER $44 -- ENERGY EXCELS... It's the same story all over again. Crude oil prices moved over $44 today to reach a new record high. While that hurt the stock market, it gave another boost to energy shares. Chart 1 shows the Energy Select Sector SPDR... READ MORE
S&P BOUNCES OFF MAY LOW... The S&P 500 bounced off its May low this week which helped stabilize its short-term trend. Unfortunately, it didn't do much to turn the intermediate downtrend around. For one thing, volume this week was lighter than the week... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL CLOSES AT RECORD HIGH ... Crude oil jumped over a dollar on Friday to close at a new record high. While that continues to benefit the energy sector, it's continuing to have a depressing effect on the economy and the rest of the stock market. U.S.... READ MORE
TELECOM ETFs SHOW IMPRESSIVE GAINS... One of the main sparks that helped ignite today's oversold market bounce was the strong gain in the telecom sector. Two of the top performing Exchange Traded Funds today were the AMEX Telecom Holders (TTH) and Telecom iShares (IYZ). Chart 1 shows the... READ MORE
S&P 500 NEARING TEST OF MAY LOW ... The new week is starting off much like the old week ended -- with more selling. As was suggested on Friday, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index is nearing an important test of its May low. Looking beneath the surface,... READ MORE
With the peak at 45.78 in January 2004, the Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) came relatively close to its high at 50.19. However, the Software HOLDRS (SWH) peaked at 40.20 and fell well short of its 2002 high at 50.91. SWH only retraced 62% of its prior decline... READ MORE
I have written on this subject before, but I was inspired by a recent article by Larry McMillan (optionstrategist.com) to visit if again. Recently the NYSE A-D Line hit new all-time highs, and this is being cited as strong evidence that the market is headed higher. Unfortunately,... READ MORE
The current technology "malaise" has run for all intents and purposes for the past six months; however, the recent earnings and guidance "misses" have put it on the front burner as expectations for difficult 2H 2004 comparisons have come one quarter early. The question is whether... READ MORE
GET INVOLVED! - Did you know there was a great place on the Internet to meet other StockCharts.com users and share your knowledge? Join InvestorsHub.com (it's free) and visit to StockCharts.com forum there. Post your questions, share your insights, and read how other members have maximized... READ MORE
The monthly S&P 500 bars show why it's important to keep an eye on percentage retracement levels -- as well as chart levels. I've shown this chart before, but it's worth showing again. The 2003 S&P rally not only stalled at... READ MORE
I'm always amazed when the "respectable" financial press gets themselves into a lather about the Dow crossing 10,000. From some of the headlines, you'd think that Friday's close at 9962 was completely unexpected and very significant. "Dow tumbles to below... READ MORE
NASDAQ BREAKS MAY LOW ... The Nasdaq Composite Index broke its May low and fell to the lowest level in nine months. That carries bad news not just for the technology sector that dominates the Nasdaq market, but the rest of the market as well. That's because the Nasdaq... READ MORE
NASDAQ LEADS DECLINE ON RISING VOLUME... In yesterday's wrapup I mentioned that the Nasdaq bounce off its May low lacked volume. That volume returned today. Unfortunately, it came on the downside. As a result, the Nasdaq (and the rest of the market) suffered a downside reversal day that... READ MORE
NASDAQ TESTING ITS MAY LOW... Today's Nasdaq-led market bounce shouldn't come as to much of a surprise. Chart 1 shows why. The Nasdaq Composite Index has reached its May low near 1865 where it's logical to expect some short-covering and some bottom-... READ MORE
ENERGY SOARS -- CHIPS FALL... Which market groups are rallying and which ones are falling usually carry a market message. Two notable group dynamics that took place this week were a new high in energy shares and a now low in semiconductors. Neither one is good for the stock market. Both... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL JUMPS OVER $41... Crude oil prices jumped $1.65 today to close over $41 for the first time in nearly two months. That gave a boost to energy shares. Chart 2 shows the Energy Select Sector SPDR hitting a new 52-week high today. Unfortunately, that proved bearish... READ MORE
INTEL TUMBLES TO 2004 LOW... Intel is tumbling to a new a new for the year and is pulling the Semiconductor (SOX) Index along with it. That also caused a lower opening in all the major stock indexes -- especially the Nasdaq. After a lower open, however, the market is trading... READ MORE
DOW BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY LINE... After a technology-led morning selloff, the market staged an afternoon bounce that came at a good time. That's because it kept the Dow Industrials over their 200-day moving average. With the exception of the Nasdaq, which closed in negative territory,... READ MORE
While if is often difficult, if not impossible, to predict the fundamental catalyst, the approaching technical catalyst is clear for the Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH). Key support and resistance are readily identifiable as well as two important patterns. With the group holding great sway over the market, the impending breakout is... READ MORE
The S&P Equal-Weight Index (SPEWI) was developed by Rydex Fund Group in collaboration with Standard & Poor's. It is composed of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index (SPX), but each stock In the SPEWI carries an equal weighting (rebalanced quarterly) versus... READ MORE
This is a good time to stand back and try to put things into a longer-term perspective. First of all, let's see why the 2004 rally has been stalled. The monthly bars in Chart 1 show that the S&P 500 ran into major chart resistance... READ MORE
We've passed the halfway mark for 2004 and the markets don't have much to show for it. As you can see in the PerfChart below, the market continues to move sideways in a broad range that's rarely over 5% above or below where it... READ MORE
MONTHLY MACD POSITIVE BUT WEAKENING... This is a good time to stand back and try to put things into a longer-term perspective. First of all, let's see why the 2004 rally has been stalled. The monthly bars in Chart 1 show that the S&P 500... READ MORE
DOW BOUNCING OFF 200-DAY LINE... I mentioned yesterday that the Dow was testing long-term support at its 200-day moving average. In early trading, the Dow is up nearly 50 points and is bouncing off its 200-day line. It's getting a lot of help from... READ MORE
YAHOO PULLS NASDAQ LOWER... The technology sector got battered again. The most prominent casualty was Yahoo which tumbled more than 7% to get the day off to a weak start. Chart 1 shows Yahoo gapping down to its 50-day average on massive volume. That made Internet stocks the day&... READ MORE
EURO HITS THREE-MONTH HIGH ... I've recently shown the U.S. Dollar Index rolling over to the downside and have suggested this could have a positive impact on gold and other commodity markets -- as well as their related common stocks. The dollar fell again today. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
VERITAS PLUNGES ON HEAVY VOLUME ... One need only to look at Chart 1 to see where the bad technology day started. Veritas Software plunged 36% on massive volume. Although several technology stocks opened lower, and got the day off to bad start, this was the biggest casualty. Things got worse... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS TUMBLE TO TWO-MONTH LOW... A weaker than expected June jobs report pushed the 10-year T-note yield to the lowest level in two months as shown in Chart 1. The benchmark yield fell beneath its 50-day average on Tuesday and signalled the start of the... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 FALLS BELOW BREAKOUT POINT... Yesterday we showed the Nasdaq 100 closing above its April peak in an apparent upside breakout. Today's price drop, however, pushed it back below the breakout point at 37.50. In chart work, a close beneath a breakout point negates the breakout.... READ MORE
FED FOLLOWS THE SCRIPT... The Fed followed through on the most advertised rate hike in history. First, by raising the Fed funds rate a quarter point to 1.25%. Second, by continuing to state that it planned to follow a measured pace in raising rates. The bond and stock market... READ MORE