After the November pullback, GLD began to rally again. This week, on Wednesday, price exceeded the nearest November top, which made official the new rising trend from the November low. Brief celebration ends the following day as GLD tops, setting the top boundary for a bearish rising wedge formation. Rising... READ MORE
Looking for options trade ideas? In this video, Tony presents some of the best options trading strategies! After discussing special 0DTE strategies, the big picture, and individual sectors and industries, Tony covers bullish and bearish ideas for stocks including NVDA, SHOP, GOOGL, META, CAT and many more. This video premiered... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The broader stock market indexes continue to notch new record highs. * Risk appetite is strong as Bitcoin rises while Treasury yields and volatility retreat. * Earnings from Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom, and Costco may move the stock market next week. The first trading week in December started on a positive... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Low VIX reading implies that conditions are favorable for stocks. * The MOVE index is basically a VIX for bonds, and can help to corroborate volatility readings across asset classes. * High yield spreads remain quite narrow, implying bond investors perceive a low risk environment. "The market goes up... READ MORE
My recent discussions on the Market Misbehavior podcasthave often included some comments on the interest rate environment, particularly the shape of the yield curve. We've had an inverted yield curve since late 2022, and so the yield curve taking on a more normal shape could mean a huge... READ MORE
In this video, Tony shows how he starts his week with a clear technical and fundamental perspective of the stocks he's likely going to enter, and of options positions throughout the week, and how you can apply that yourself. Tony shares bullish (NVDA, DIS, SHOP) and bearish (AAPL,... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The broader stock market indexes take a breather. The day before Thanksgiving, the stock market took a little breather. But the weekly performance was still impressive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) remains the broader index leader, rising 0.96% for the week. The S&P 500... READ MORE
Join Tony as he walks you through a Macro Market outlook, and shares his top bearish and bullish options trading ideas. He talks growth vs. value, commodities, bonds, the Dollar Index, sectors like homebuilders and semiconductors, and stocks like NVDA, DIS, INTC, and more. This video premiered on November 26,... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Stocks and bond prices rallied on Monday in response to President-elect Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary. * Gold and oil prices fell steeply as concerns of geopolitical risks ease. * Small and mid-cap stocks were the leaders in today's equity rally. It's a short... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Broader equity indexes ended the week on a positive note, with small- and mid-caps gaining momentum. * Gold regained its bullish momentum, and the US dollar surged. * Bitcoin skyrocketed and crossed the 10K level, but closed lower. The last full trading week before the Thanksgiving holiday has ended on... READ MORE
Today, the 20-Year Bond ETF (TLT) 50-day EMA crossed down through the 200-day EMA (Death Cross), generating an LT Trend Model SELL Signal. This was the result of a downtrend lasting over two months. We note that the PMO has been running flat below the zero line for a month,... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Stock market indexes resumed their bullish trend. * Small- and mid-cap stocks rose the most showing strong upside movement. * Treasury yields rose higher on concerns of reinflation. The afternoon turnaround seems to be more the norm than the exception. Thursday's stock market action followed the trend. What... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Despite a lot of turmoil, SPY continues to show strong rotations on both weekly and daily RRGs. * Rising yields have not damaged the stock rally yet. * Stock/Bond ratio remains strongly in favor of stocks. After the election, things have hardly settled in the world. New developments in... READ MORE
Join Tony as he walks you through a Macro Market outlook, where he shares his top bearish and bullish options trading ideas, These include Disney (DIS), Shopify (SHOP), Intel (INTC), Adobe (ADBE), and Apple (AAPL). He explores growth vs. value, current sector rotation, key earnings, and more. This video premiered... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Tech stocks, especially semiconductors, get hammered. * Treasury yields continue to rally higher in response to Fed comments and strong economy. * The US dollar rally confirms the strength of the US economy. "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The broader stock market indexes hit milestone levels this week. * Monitoring volatility in bonds could be a leading indicator in market action shifts. * The US dollar can provide clues about future stock market action. Another packed week for the stock market has come to a close. The broader... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Markets bounced back after Thursday's selloff. * Small-cap stocks are struggling to gain steam even though interest rates are likely to decline. * Treasury yields continue to rise. After yesterday's "trick," investors received a "treat" at the end of the trading week,... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Tech stocks gained some ground this week after better-than-expected earnings from Tesla. * US Treasury yields continue to rise. * Bullish momentum keeps gold prices rising higher. Although earnings season is in full swing, trading volume has been relatively light this week. Perhaps investors are waiting for the stock market... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Stock market is treading softly as uncertainties loom on the horizon. * Consumer Staples is the best-performing sector. * Nasdaq breaks out above a consolidation pattern ahead of Tech earnings. The overall trend in the stock market's broader indexes remains bullish. While the indexes were trading lower on... READ MORE
In this video from StockCharts TV,Julius dives in to the sector rotation model, trying to find any alignment between theoretical and real-life rotations of sectors in combination with the economic cycle. The positions of the various sectors and the economic indicators that are part of this model are not... READ MORE
Below, Chart 1 shows a weekly plot for the 30-year yield, where we can see a perfectly formed top whose completion was followed by a negative 65-week EMA crossover. At the time of the breakdown, there were few grounds for suspecting a false break. However, in the last couple of... READ MORE
In this StockCharts TV video, Mary Ellen highlights the continuation rally in AI-related stocks while also reviewing broader market conditions. The move higher in yields as well as volatility were discussed heading into next week's FOMC notes and inflation data. This video originally premiered October 4, 2024. You... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The macro picture of the US economy remains strong with the broader equity indexes in an uptrend. * There has been some rotation in the sectors with Energy taking the lead as a result of rising crude oil prices. * Use the StockCharts MarketCarpet to select stocks for your ChartLists.... READ MORE
S&P 500 earnings are in for 2024 Q2, and here is our valuation analysis. The following chart shows the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E... READ MORE
In this exclusive StockCharts TV video, Joe presents an introduction to the Average Directional Index (ADX), sharing how it is calculated and how to use it. He highlights some of the strengths, and weaknesses, of this powerful indicator. He then analyzes Bitcoin, NVDA, and AVGO, and finishes up the show... READ MORE
In this video from StockCharts TV,Julius assesses current rotations in asset classes and US sectors using Relative Rotation Graphs, finding a lot of contradictory behavior. Taking a step back, he focuses on the weekly timeframe to find some more meaningful trends and shy away from day-to-day noise. He then... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new all-time high. * Stock market indexes still have bullish momentum in spite of up and down movement. * Bond prices could stabilize after digesting the interest rate cut. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision on Wednesdaywas like receiving... READ MORE
Interest rates have been cut -- what now? Larry presents his thoughts in this edition of the Family Gathering video. In this month's Family Gathering video, Larry begins with what he calls the "Fed Cut Discount Rate" and what it means. What does history make of... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points and shifts focus to the economy. * Stock market rallied after the Fed's interest rate cut decision but closed lower. * Treasury yields rose while bond prices fell. The stock market received what it expected from the Federal Reserve—... READ MORE
While the S&P 500 finished the week once again testing new all-time highs around 5650, the Nasdaq 100 remains rangebound in a symmetrical triangle or "coil" pattern. While this pattern does not necessarily suggest a potential next move for the QQQ, it did lead me to... READ MORE
Most of the primary trend indicators I follow are in a bullish mode and show few signs of flagging. That said, some intermarket relationships, which help to indicate whether the environment is risk-off or risk-on, have started to move in a risk-off direction. That's usually a bearish omen... READ MORE
I've been around long enough to remember when Intel (INTC) was the NVIDIA of the day. Now, INTC is under severe pressure, having suspended its dividend, and is currently being considered for removal from the Dow 30 Industrial Average. Oh, how the mighty have fallen! With INTC having... READ MORE
Every business cycle has an inflationary and deflationary part, and it's very important for both traders and investors at least to try to have some understanding which has the upper hand at any particular point in time. For example, when the economy is in a slowdown or recessionary... READ MORE
What to make of the market as we near the end of August? Larry presents his thoughts in this edition of the Family Gathering video. In this month's Family Gathering video, Larry begins by presenting a new way of forecasting for Crude Oil. After that, he follows up... READ MORE
In Monday's DecisionPoint Trading Room video, we were asked why we cover Gold Miners (GDX) as well as Gold (GLD). There are two reasons: 1. Some people prefer to own the commodity, Gold, and others prefer to own an operating company that benefits from the price of Gold,... READ MORE
In this video from StockCharts TV,Julius looks at the conflicting rotations in both asset classes and equity sectors. The weekly rotations differ significantly from their daily counterparts. What does it mean for the current rally in the S&P 500, and what does it mean for the relationship... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, Dave recaps an epic rally in mega cap growth stocks, with NVDA up over 6% and META threatening a new 52-week high. Dave highlights how gold and bond prices continue to rise in the face of stronger stocks, and breaks... READ MORE
In this video from StockCharts TV,Julius assesses various rotations using Relative Rotation Graphs, starting at asset class level and then moving to sectors. Julius zooms in on the industries of two sectors to get an idea of where pockets of out-performance may exist in the current market. He then... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, Dave recaps a choppy Monday for the equity markets, as gold tests new all-time highs and interest rates continue to plummet. He highlights the stock to bond ratio, revisits the classic 60:40 ratio favored by investors, and breaks down... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Smoothing the signal thresholds help to reduce whipsaws. * A new uptrend signaled for TLT as the 5-day exceeded the 200-day by more than 3% * TLT also sports a classic breakout and continuation signal. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is turning the corner as a long-term trend... READ MORE