In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, with US Equities delivering a streak of daily gains this week, Alex takes a top down approach to see what the GoNoGo Charts are saying about markets. With U.S. domestic equities in a "NoGo" trend, the charts warn that... READ MORE
The S&P 500 (SPY) has fallen about 10 percent from the July top, and the last two weeks has been pretty rough, so should we be looking for the Bear to take charge again? First, looking at a weekly chart, it is not clear that the Bear actually... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, guest Tom Bowley of EarningsBeats shares his chart of key ratios illustrating how growth still has held its ground relative to value stocks. Host David Keller, CMT focuses in on distribution in the last hour of trading and highlights one... READ MORE
On this week's edition of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil, Joe shows an intraday trade setup in the SPY that took place this week. He uses the MACD and ADX in multiple timeframes to explain in detail how they can help with our entry and timing. He discusses... READ MORE
Correlations rise during bear markets. This means more stocks participate in broad market declines than broad market advances. In other words, the odds are stacked against us when picking stocks in bear markets. Traders are better off looking outside of the stock market for opportunities. The Perfchart below shows the... READ MORE
When Anwar Sadat, President of Egypt was assassinated in 1981, gold rallied sharply over the near-term, but the advance soon petered out. The reason was that gold was in a primary bear market, so the advance merely represented a counter-cyclical move. Gold has rallied sharply since the Middle East crisis... READ MORE
In this episode of StockCharts TV'sThe MEM Edge, Mary Ellen shares where the market stands, after last week's price action had select areas far outpacing the markets while others were weak. She also reviews the start of earnings season following reports from several high profile companies.... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Broader stock market indices are still holding support despite the selloff * The VIX closed higher but it's still tame relative to past readings * Gold futures closed above $1900 per ounce indicating that investors may have fled to gold in case geopolitical tensions escalated over the weekend... READ MORE
Some notes this week: Growth stocks are acting as a defense move again, especially given that the Fed remains on the fence about interest rate. Small caps and retail though, could still act as an anchor. For now, they both held a key area -- 6-7-year business cycle lows --... READ MORE
Before we begin, just a note to mention that TLT took out the fast MA featured in the October 10th daily, while SPY underperformed. If that is a trend, it behooves you to review that daily. Loyal readers of the Daily know that we often focus on zooming out to... READ MORE
The next direction of the long bonds is crucial in determining the macro. First, after a wrecking ball crash and ahead of the FOMC, we could surmise that a bottoming-like action defines the last several trading days. Our Real Motion indicator shows a mean reversion. The 10-day moving averages (cyan... READ MORE
For consistency, here are the key go-tos during an uncertain time in the market: 1. The next direction of long bonds (TLT). 2. The next direction of the small caps and retail sectors (IWM, XRT). 3. The next direction of commodities, all of them, but particularly the agricultural ones, oil... READ MORE
I spent all of last week, in the media and in print, going over the importance of 2 key indicators. (See the media clips below.) 1. Our risk gauges on Big View, all of which kept flashing risk-on regardless of the doom-and-gloom and initial selloff in bonds and SPY. 2.... READ MORE
Yesterday, we covered the 80-month moving average in small caps and retail. Today, I did several interviews -- some already out (BNN Bloomberg), others out soon (Financial Sense with Jim Pupluva), and the one that you'll find on YouTubelater today with Real Vision. We chose this one to... READ MORE
The Dollar Index I last wrote an article on the dollar in August, The Dollar Index Goes to Missouri. In it, I pointed out that the Index had reached crucial resistance, which, if surpassed, would signal a new primary bull market and a likely fourth up leg to the secular... READ MORE
We have introduced two new tables in the DecisionPoint ALERT to give an overview of trend and BIAS for the major market indexes, sectors, and industry groups that we track. The first is our Market Scoreboard, which shows the current Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Model (ITTM and LTTM) signal status.... READ MORE
On this week's edition of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil, Joe explains how the creator of the MACD, Gerald Appel, used this indicator as an overbought/oversold oscillator. He shows how using the SPY on the daily chart as an example. He then explains what to do when... READ MORE
On this episode of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, after two weeks of non-regular market updates, I'm back with a regular episode. Here, I dive deep into the current state of rotation in asset classes, highlighting the strength of commodities and the opposing rotations for stocks and... READ MORE
In this week's edition of The DecisionPoint Trading Room, Carl opens with a discussion on why you should use monthly charts even if you are investing in the shorter term. He gives us insight into the market as a whole and reviews the Magnificent 7 stocks and Tesla... READ MORE
Pete has been monitoring and calling out the downfall of TLT for nearly 20 months. In this week's edition of StockCharts TV'sHalftime, Pete explains why the ETF broke below $90 and how the US 10-year is over 4.5% on the same day. He dives into... READ MORE
In this episode of StockCharts TV'sThe MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reviews what drove the previous week's sharp pullback and what we'll need to see before the markets can turn positive again. She also highlights recession-proof stocks that are currently attractive as well as high... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) shows some promising technicals, signaling room for a potential climb and a strong chance for a breakout to the upside * Technical indicators suggest that the Energy sector has a high probability of breaking out to the upside * A breakout above its all-time... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * A convergence of fundamental and seasonality data predicts a potential decline in gold prices by the end of the year * Demand for gold has decreased by about 5% year-over-year in the first half of 2023, with central banks being the primary buyers * The Williams True Seasonal indicator aligns... READ MORE
How many of you have heard me say that commodities are inherently volatile? Clearly, from this chart, you can see that after the oil rally in the mid 1970s, the CPI went from nearly 9% in 1974 down to 2% in 1976. Sugar, my favorite barometer of inflation, ran to... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Although September is considered a seasonally weak period for the stock market the fourth quarter is typically a strong period * There's a high probability of the S&P 500 Index reaching a new high in Q4 * Growth stocks, Industrials, Financials, and Commodities could all see... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, guest Julius de Kempenaer of RRG Research shows how his market visualizations still show stocks over bonds and offense over defense. Host David Keller, CMT highlights one industry sector breaking down due to higher crude oil prices. This video originally... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Chesapeake Energy stock has been trending higher since June 2023 * Chesapeake Energy stock has room for upside growth * CHK could benefit from the rise in crude oil prices In addition to analyzing the stock market's overall performance, running scans when the market opens and after it... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * September is usually a weak month in the stock market and this time it may be no different * In spite of the selloff the broader equity indexes are still trending higher * Rising oil prices and the US dollar may put some pressure on inflation "September is when... READ MORE
Probably the worst or at least one of the worst performers in the overall market and in the commodities market, natural gas is choppy and lifeless. So why write about it? For starters, we love an underdog. Perhaps a bit too contrarian, as the reasons for the decline in natural... READ MORE
In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, Tyler examines a return to strong "Go" conditions in the US Dollar index (UUP) and US Treasury rates ($TNX) on both the daily and weekly timeframes. The trend following model is clearly to the upside, but momentum has not shown... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Energy stocks are in focus as US crude oil prices continue rising higher * Oil prices have more room to rise but if prices go too high there may be demand pressures * Diamondback Energy is getting close to its 52-week high With Labor Day weekend behind us, it'... READ MORE
The business cycle has been with us for as long as reliable financial records have been available, and that's at least 200 years. It may seem to be a mysterious force, but it is nothing more than a set sequence of chronological events that just keeps repeating. The... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Overall, the stock market has managed to hold on to its upward rally even in spite of a pullback * Crude oil prices rose on news of production cuts * Treasury yields rose on the jobs report data The much-awaited August jobs report was released on Friday. While it came... READ MORE
Conference Board Economic Forecast: Looking into 2024, we expect the volatility that dominated the US economy over the pandemic period to diminish. In the second half of 2024, we forecast that overall growth will return to more stable pre-pandemic rates, inflation will drift closer to 2 percent, and the Fed... READ MORE
In this special edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, guest host Mish Schneider (MarketGauge) steps in for Dave. Mish puts her own spin on the Market Recap, starting with the indices and exploring sectors using her "Economic Modern Family" analysis. Mish then sits down with Keith... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Large pools of "informed money" have a significant impact on price movements in the market * The Williams Money Flow Index is designed to reveal "institutional" buying and selling activity that may sway the longer-term price direction * The Williams Money Flow Index can be applied... READ MORE