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2024 is Shaping Up Like 2021, Which Did Not End Particularly Well
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
I've always found technical analysis to be a fantastic history lesson for the markets. If you want to consider how the current conditions relate to previous market cycles, just compare the charts; you'll usually have a pretty good starting point for the discussion.
As we near...
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Four Prerequisites to Improve Your Odds - A Live Example
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* Traders can improve their odds with market, sector and stock filters.
* We should be in a bull market and the sector should be in an uptrend.
* The stock should be in a long-term uptrend and leading.
Even though trading based on chart analysis involves some discretionary decisions, chartists...
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Bonds Get Death Cross SELL Signal
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
Today, the 20-Year Bond ETF (TLT) 50-day EMA crossed down through the 200-day EMA (Death Cross), generating an LT Trend Model SELL Signal. This was the result of a downtrend lasting over two months. We note that the PMO has been running flat below the zero line for a month,...
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AppLovin's 1,303% Rise: The Hidden Power of the SCTR Report
by Karl Montevirgen,
Financial Writer
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* AppLovin has risen 1,303% since the SCTR Report first gave the green light on the stock.
* Other StockCharts indicators confirmed the opportunity when Wall Street insiders began quietly accumulating the stock.
* Key levels in AppLovin's price chart can guide you to enter a long position...
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Is the USD Setting Up for a Perfect Rally?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* Despite a lot of turmoil, SPY continues to show strong rotations on both weekly and daily RRGs.
* Rising yields have not damaged the stock rally yet.
* Stock/Bond ratio remains strongly in favor of stocks.
After the election, things have hardly settled in the world. New developments in...
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These Country ETFs are Looking Particularly Vulnerable
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
Chart 1, below, compares the S&P Composite to the Europe Australia Far East ETF (EFA), which is effectively the rest of the world. It shows that US equities have been on a tear against its rivals since the financial crisis. More to the point, there are very few...
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Be ALERT for Warning Signs - S&P 500 Downturn
by Joe Rabil,
President, Rabil Stock Research
In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe goes into detail on the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), sharing why using MACD and ADX together can be beneficial -- especially in the current environment. He touches on Sentiment, Volatility and Momentum, pointing to reasons why we need to be on alert...
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Sector Rotation Suggests Offense Over Defense
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* Relative strength trends show a recent rotation into Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Financials, and Energy.
* The offense to defense ratio still favors "things you want" over "things you need."
* RRG charts give a fairly clear roadmap of what to look for rotation-wise into early...
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SCTR Report: The Palantir Trade Follow-Up—Transform Insights into Actions
by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan,
Director of Site Content, StockCharts.com
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* Palantir stock sold off significantly on Monday and may be ripe for a turnaround.
* The pullback in Palantir stock could be an opportunity to enter a long position.
* The chart of Palantir's stock price indicates increased buying pressure, but more upside momentum is needed to enter...
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A Tale of Two Semiconductor ETFs - Why is SMH holding up better than SOXX?
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* SOXX is lagging SMH as it broke the 200-day SMA and confirmed a bearish pattern.
* SMH is holding up because its top component remains strong.
* Nevertheless SMH is at a moment of truth ahead of a big earnings report from Nvidia.
Even though the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SMH)...
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MarketCarpets Secrets: How to Spot Winning Stocks in Minutes!
by Karl Montevirgen,
Financial Writer
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* StockCharts' MarketCarpets can be customized to find stocks to invest in using specific criteria.
* The MarketCarpets tool helps users drill down from a big-picture view to individual stocks.
* Getting an at-a-glance view of strong stocks poised to bounce can be done immediately and efficiently with MarketCarpets.
When...
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Stocks: "...a PERMANENTLY high plateau"?
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
Today we explore the bullish sentiment that has taken SPX valuations to the moon. There are many out there that believe we have hit a plateau on prices that will continue permanently. We talk about the quote: "Stock prices have reached 'what looks like a permanently high plateau,...
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Biotechs Fall Apart with Dark Cross Neutral Signal
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
(This is an excerpt from the subscriber-only DP Weekly Wrap for Friday)
On Friday, the Biotechnology ETF (IBB) 20-day EMA crossed down through the 50-day EMA (Dark Cross) and above the 200-day EMA, generating an IT Trend Model NEUTRAL Signal. IBB recently switched to a BUY Signal on Friday November...
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Riding the Cryptocurrency Wave: How to Maximize Your Gains
by Karl Montevirgen,
Financial Writer
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* With a new administration set to take office in January, it may be time to seriously reconsider cryptocurrencies.
* Three cryptocurrencies to keep an eye on are Bitcoin, Ethereum, and (strangely) Dogecoin.
* Despite cryptocurrencies being a noisy market, the right tools can help guide you toward smarter decisions.
With...
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The Sign of Strong Charts Getting Stronger
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
I was originally taught to use RSI as a swing trading tool, helping me to identify when the price of a particular asset was overextended to the upside and downside. And, on the swing trading time frame, that approach very much works, especially if you employ a shorter time period...
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Key Support Levels for Gold
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
In today's DP Alert short video we discuss the key support levels for Gold as it has likely begun a longer-term correction. We also take a look at Gold Miners under the hood! Charts and commentary are taken from our subscriber-only DP Alert publication. Subscribe now and try...
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The SCTR Report: Palantir Stock's Rise Makes It the Hottest AI Play
by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan,
Director of Site Content, StockCharts.com
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* Palantir stock's rise to the third place in the SCTR Report makes it a worthy candidate to add to your portfolio.
* The price surge in Palantir stock after its stellar earnings report may just be the beginning of a bullish move.
* Palantir is a stock that...
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The Dollar's Technical Position is Crucial from a Short, Intermediate, Primary, and Secular Standpoint
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
Chart 1 shows the Dollar Index has been in a trading range for the last couple of years and is now at resistance in the form of its upper part. The big question relates as to whether it can break to the upside, or if the resistance will once again...
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Are Extremely Overbought Conditions Good or Bad for Stocks?
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
When a stock shows an RSI value above 80, is that a good thing or a bad thing? In this video, Dave reviews a series of examples showing this "extreme overbought" condition, highlights how these signals usually occur not at the end of, but often earlier in an...
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What Seasonality Charts Reveal About the Top Sectors to Watch Right Now!
by Karl Montevirgen,
Financial Writer
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* Seasonality provides a unique historical technical context, as long as you remember that it's more of a traffic flow map than a crystal ball.
* Seasonality charts can be useful for drilling down from market to sector or sector to stocks.
* Checking the daily chart is crucial...
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Is the Trump Rally Like the Reagan Rally?
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
Today Carl compares this week's Trump Rally with the rally we saw after Reagan was elected in 1980. There are similarities and differences. The Trump rally has lifted certain sectors of the market as well as Cryptocurrencies. While the Reagan rally had different catalysts.
The market continues to...
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Three Sectors Leading SPY Back to Offense
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* The market came out of defensive mode after the election.
* Old resistance at 585 is now support for SPY.
* XLC, XLY, and XLF are all showing strength.
First of all, for those of you looking for a new video this week, I have intentionally skipped it because I...
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Markets Surge Post-Election: Is It Time to Go All-In?
by Karl Montevirgen,
Financial Writer
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* The S&P 500 jumped post-election, exhibiting a strong gap.
* Sentiment indicators remain bullish, though not quite euphoric.
* Momentum indicators, however, signal a slowdown ahead for stocks.
When major shifts happen in the market, such as the one we're seeing the morning after the election,...
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The SCTR Report: What Coinbase's Dramatic Price Surge Means For Your Portfolio
by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan,
Director of Site Content, StockCharts.com
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* Coinbase made it to the top of the Top Up Large Cap stocks SCTR Report on the day after the US elections.
* The price surge in Coinbase stock could be the start of an upward move.
* Trading options on COIN provide an alternative to buying COIN stock.
Now...
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Short-Term Bearish Signal as Markets Brace for News-Heavy Week
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* We can define the market trend on multiple time frames using a series of exponential moving averages.
* While our short-term Market Trend Model turned bearish last week, the medium-term and long-term models remain bullish.
* 2021 could provide a compelling analogue to what we're experiencing so far...
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Market Trend Model Flashes Short-Term Bearish, What's Next?
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
In this video, Dave breaks down the three time frames in his Market Trend Model, reveals the short-term bearish signal that flashed on Friday's close, relates the current configuration to previous bull and bear market cycles, and shares how investors can best track this model to ensure they&...
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DP Trading Room: Six-Month Period of Favorable Seasonality Begins Now!
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
It's here! The SPY starts a period of favorable seasonality for the next six months. Carl takes us through his charts and explains favorable versus unfavorable periods of seasonality.
Carl covers our signal tables showing new weakness seeping in despite this period of favorable seasonality. The market looks...
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Finding and Trading Oversold Conditions within Long-term Uptrends
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* Oversold conditions create opportunities to trade with the long-term uptrend.
* Oversold conditions provide the setup, but not the signals.
* Chartists need a signal because price can become oversold and remain oversold.
There is only one way to trade in a long-term uptrend: long. Forget about picking tops and...
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Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) Internals Still a Problem
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
We noticed on Thursday evening how poor the internals were for the SPY, based on Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) internals. These internals are the percent of stocks with rising PMOs and the percent of stocks with PMO Crossover BUY Signals. The accompanying short-term Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs), along with IT...
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Market Rotation Fueled by Large-Cap Growth (Again)
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* Large-cap stocks are pushing the market higher.
* Large-cap growth is the only segment driving the market.
* AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, and AMD are having trouble pushing higher.
Following the recent market fluctuations, with a sharp decline and a subsequent rally, it's crucial to examine these movements'...
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Will Breadth Divergences Signal the End of the Bull?
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* A negative McClellan Oscillator suggests short-term weakness in breadth conditions.
* About 30% of the S&P 500 members have already broken down below their 50-day moving average.
* The Bullish Percent Index has broken a key bearish threshold, indicating that many stocks have already begun bearish trends.
As...
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The SCTR Report: Learn How to Scan and Identify Winning Stocks
by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan,
Director of Site Content, StockCharts.com
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* Use the SCTR scan to help you find technically strong stocks.
* Filter scan results further using additional criteria such as trends and momentum indicators.
* Narrow your analysis further with additional criteria and add the most likely candidates to a watchlist.
When the stock market hesitates to move in...
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Cruise Or Soar? Carnival, Delta, and United Hit New Highs—Which One's Your Best Bet?
by Karl Montevirgen,
Financial Writer
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* Carnival Corp occupies the top spot for new highs across different timeframes.
* Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, two other transportation companies, have also gained new highs.
* Compare Carnival Corp, Delta, and United stock price action and determine which might present a strong opportunity in the coming weeks....
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Four Sectors That Have Just Experienced Bearish Weekly Action
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
Most weekends, I flip through a chartlist featuring weekly bars and candles for sectors, country ETFs, currencies, bonds and some commodities. The idea is to see whether any of these entities are showing signs of bullish or bearish reversals. Most of the time, this fishing exercise does not uncover a...
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Top 5 Breadth Indicators You Can't Afford to Ignore!
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
In this video, Dave digs into five market breadth indicators every investor should track as we navigate a volatile period including Q3 earnings, the US elections, and the November Fed meeting. He breaks down key insights on each of the five charts, talks about why breadth indicators are equal-weighted, and...
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DP Trading Room: Magnificent Seven Earnings Preview
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
As part of today's coverage of the Magnificent Seven we remind you when the big mega-caps are reporting and give you are current perspective of each. We also cover all of the Magnificent Seven in the short and intermediate terms with daily and weekly charts.
Carl gives us...
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Two Indicators to Improve Your Edge
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* Trend and momentum are proven concepts we can use to improve our edge.
* Longer timeframes are better for trend-momentum
* CandleGlance charts make it easy to rank and sort for momentum.
There are no magic bullets, but we can improve our trading edge by starting our selection process with...
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Why the S&P 500 Won't Break 6000 (Yet)
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
When I was growing up, I loved Choose Your Own Adventure books. I see the world in shades of gray instead of black-and-white, so I was immediately drawn to the seemingly endless scenarios that the main characters could experience as I made different choices for them.
As investors, we often...
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PMO SELL Signals on All Indexes But One
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
In today's article and video, we'll discuss the weakness that pervades nearly all index charts.
Over the past few days, many of the indexes have lost their PMO BUY Signals. Nearly all have crossed beneath their signal lines, with the exception of the Nasdaq which is...
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SCTR Report: Unlocking TSLA's Potential—What Every Investor Needs to Know Now
by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan,
Director of Site Content, StockCharts.com
KEY TAKEAWAYS
* TSLA stock soared on upbeat Q3 earnings report.
* TSLA's stock price has broken above the upper Keltner Channel, indicating strength and the early stages of an uptrend.
* Adding a momentum indicator like the StochRSI to Tesla's stock analysis can help make smart trading decisions....
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