SEMIS CONTINUE TO CLIMB ... The Semiconductor (SOX) Index is gaining more than 2% today to continue its uptrend and its recent market leadership. Chart 1 shows the SOX reaching a new 52-week high today. Just last week it broke through its summer high to achieve a bullish breakout. It&... READ MORE
YIELDS ARE BOUNCING OFF SUMMER HIGHS... After pulling back during the month of November, bond yields are starting to climb again. More importantly, they're bouncing off the previous peaks hit during August. That's important in chart work because short-term pullbacks shouldn't fall below... READ MORE
INDUSTRIALS STILL BELOW 2005 HIGH ... One of the oldest technical approaches is the Dow Theory. It simply holds that upside breakouts in either the Dow Industrials or the Dow Transports must be confirmed by the other to signal the start or the resumption of the major bull trend. In this... READ MORE
BUYING CYCLICALS ... On Tuesday I showed the Materials Select SPDR (XLB) breaking through its summer high to achieve a bullish breakout. Materials were today's second strongest group just behind energy. Although there may be some inflationary meaning behind the new buying in these stocks, there's a... READ MORE
SMALL CAP BREAKOUT ... Earlier in the week I suggested that the fourth quarter market advance was being stalled partially by the inability of small cap stocks to break through their summer highs. That inability is being corrected today. Charts 1 and 2 show the S&P 600 Small Cap... READ MORE
DOW IS OVER-EXTENDED ... Yesterday I wrote about the Dow Industrials running into some selling along its early 2005 peak just below 11,000. I also mentioned it being over-extended. That can be plainly see in the 9-day RSI line which is well into overbought territory over 70.... READ MORE
MATERIALS SPDR TURNS UP ... Basic material stocks are the day's strongest sector. Chart 1 shows the XLB having already broken through its summer high to reach the highest level in seven months. The relative strength ratio, which peaked in March, has also bottomed. Most of today's... READ MORE
HEAVY RETAIL SELLING... With the holiday shopping season upon us, all eyes are focused on retailers. For today at least, investors weren't impressed with what they've seen so far. As a result, the Retail Holders were one of the day's biggest losers. To make... READ MORE
MONTHLY DOLLAR INDEX CHART ... To get a better idea of where the dollar stands in relation to its long-term trend, it's a good idea to start with the monthly chart. The monthly bars in Chart 1 show the Dollar Index peaking at the start of 2002 and... READ MORE
SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX TESTING 2005 HIGHS ... After some hesitation earlier this morning owing to a jump in energy prices, the market moved into new ground this afternoon to resume its uptrend. A lot of the credit for the afternoon strength comes from the semiconductor group which was second only to energy... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT LINES... After losing more than 20% since the end of August, crude oil prices are starting to bounce off two lines of potential chart support. One is the horizontal line in Chart 1 which is drawn under the July lows. The other is the 200-... READ MORE
NASDAQ HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH ... Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite having hit a new four-year high this week. It's now trading at the highest level since the spring of 2001. There's another shelf of potential resistance to watch at 2328 (see circle), but the... READ MORE
SHIFT FROM DEFLATION TO INFLATION ... Gold and the Japanese market are breaking out to new highs together. I don't think that's a coincidence. Back on September 29 I wrote an article entitled "New Japanese Leadership May Be Signaling Shift To Global Inflation" (September 29,... READ MORE
GOLD SOARS $9.00... Gold prices have risen $9.00 today and are on the verge of a new multi-year high. That's putting a strong bid under gold stocks which are up 4% and the day's strongest stock group. Chart 1 shows the Gold ETF... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 PULL BACK FROM RESISTANCE ... Yesterday I wrote about some of the major market averages being up against chart resistance and in an overbought condition. That combination probably helped lead to today's profit-taking in the overall market. Chart 1 shows theDow Industrials... READ MORE
DOW INDUSTRIALS REACH 10700 BARRIER ... Some of the major market averages have reached important resistance levels which represents a moment of truth for the market. The Dow is a good example. It's trading over 10,700 today which puts it right up against the highs formed from July... READ MORE
ENERGY STOCKS SELLOFF ON WEAK OIL ... With crude oil falling to a three-month low, energy stocks are coming under heavy selling pressure. On Monday, I showed the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) falling back below its 50-day moving average. It's fallen even further since then. Chart 1... READ MORE
HOMEBUILDERS PEAKED IN JULY ... A negative forecast from Toll Brothers that housing demand was weakening pushed that stock and other homebuilders sharply lower today. In turn, that caused some profit-taking in the broader market. The idea that the housing sector might be peaking isn't new. If you... READ MORE
OIL BACK BELOW $60 AS ENERGY STOCKS FALL ... The price of crude oil fell $1.11 today to close back below the $60 level. Chart 1 shows, however, that crude is nearing its 200-day moving average at 57.39. It remains to be seen if that long-term support... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX BREAKS SUMMER HIGH ... The U.S. Dollar broke through its summer high today and closed above 91 for the first time in eighteen months. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the short-term bullish breakout. The weekly bars in Chart 2 show that the USD is trading... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS HIT ALL-TIME HIGH ... I've written several times over the last few weeks about how the drop in energy prices during October was giving a big boost to the fuel-sensitive transportation stocks. With crude continuing to trade below $60, the Dow Transportation Average has broken through... READ MORE
INTERNATIONAL STOCKS RISE... Following on the heels of Friday's strong stock market gains in the U.S., international stock markets opened the week on a powerful note. The major European stock markets gained about 2% while Japan did about the same. That got our market off to a... READ MORE
NO CHANGE IN SHORT-TERM TREND... Last Friday I showed the S&P 500 trading between support at its 400-day (80-week) moving average (blue line) and resistance at the red 200-day (40-week) line. I also suggested that the S&P needed a decisive close... READ MORE
NEW SIX MONTH HIGHS ... Long-term interest rates surged today in the T-bond and T-note markets. Charts 1 and 2 show the 10-year T-note (TNX) and the 30-year T-bond yield (TYX) surging to the highest levels in more than six months. This upward trend... READ MORE
OIL MAY HAVE BOTTOMED ... It looks like the fourth quarter correction in crude has probably ended. After dipping briefly below $60, crude oil jumped more than $2 yesterday and looks to have bottomed. The Commodity Channel (CCI) Index (on top of the chart) is turning up from oversold condition after... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS HAVE ANOTHER STRONG DAY... On Friday I wrote that one of the places that any fourth quarter bounce would start would be the transports. That's because they're among the main beneficiaries of the recent slide in oil prices. [Earlier in the week I also listed... READ MORE
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO LINES ... There's good and bad news on the daily S&P 500 bar chart. The bad news has to do with the fact that the S&P is still trading below its red 200-day moving average line. Although not every break of... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS ARE SHOWING RESILIENCY... Earlier in the week I wrote that falling energy prices should benefit certain market groups more than others. I also suggested that any fourth quarter rally would most likely be led by financials (mainly banks), retailers, technology, and transports. I've already shown some early... READ MORE
JAPAN IS TOP OCTOBER MARKET ... A number of readers have asked for an update on the Japanese market. My October 11 message entitled "Why Japan is a Good Global Value" (October 11, 2005) showed the low correlation between Japan and the U.S. over the last fifteen years,... READ MORE
OVERSOLD NYSE BOUNCES ON STRONG VOLUME... A lot has been written about the 200-day moving average lately. That's because a market that breaks that long-term support line -- and then stays below it -- can be in trouble. Several market indexes have broken that support line over the... READ MORE
OIL SERVICE HOLDERS STILL IN CORRECTION ... On September 14 I wrote an article showing that the energy sector had moved into a long-range overbought condition. That article, however, allowed for more short-term buying until the short-term trend also became overbought. On September 23, I wrote that oil... READ MORE
WHY NEXT TARGET FOR GOLD IS $500 ... After reaching $700 in 1980, the price of gold fell for the next twenty years before hitting bottom at $250 in late 1998. Bullion started to rise in early 2002 and is close to doubling in price. One of the ways to arrive... READ MORE
NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX AT CRITICAL SUPPORT... I've been asked to update my views on the NYSE Bullish Percent Index (BPNYA). The BPNYA is the percent of stocks in the NYSE Index that are on point & figure buy signals. On September 26 I reported that the BPNYA... READ MORE
INVERSE FUNDS ... One of our readers asked which indicators to use when analyzing bear mutual funds. The answer is to use the exact same indicators that we use in the stock market. Bear funds are simply inverse funds. They're designed to move in the opposite direction of the... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS EXCEED AUGUST HIGH... Yields on the 10-year T-note and the 30-Year T-bond closed over their August highs today. I've explained before that I'm focusing more on the 30-year bond because I believe that's where the most reliable... READ MORE
BIOTECH AND INTERNET INDEXES BREAK 50-DAY LINES... Two former leadership groups in the Nasdaq market have undergone short-term trend damage. Chart 1 shows the Biotechnology Index (BTK) trading beneath its 50-day average for the last four trading days. Its relative strength line (versus the Nasdaq) is starting... READ MORE
JAPAN CONTINUES TO LEAD GLOBAL MARKETS... I've written some recent articles on my belief that the Japanese market represents the best global value at this point in time. Part of that reasoning is tied to the idea that Japan is benefiting from the global swing from deflation to... READ MORE
DAILY CHARTS ... October is trying to live up to its reputation as one of the year's most dangerous months. All of the market averages fell sharply and on rising volume. That's a bad combination. Many of them undercut initial chart support at their August lows and... READ MORE
EURO BOUNCES OFF JULY LOW ... The Euro is bouncing strongly off chart support at its July low as shown in Chart 1. Aside from technical considerations, there were two main catalysts behind today's jump. One is a statement from the president of the European Central Bank that it... READ MORE
BREAKS AUGUST LOW ... Earlier today I wrote that the S&P 500 was at a critical chart point as it neared a test of its August low and its 200-day moving average. It failed on both counts. Chart 1 shows the S&P closing below both support... READ MORE