OIL INDEX OVERBOUGHT ... I've mentioned several times over the past week that oil stocks are in a short-term overbought condition. With crude oil falling back from $50 today, some profit-taking is being seen in the energy patch. The 14-day RSI line carries a double message. The first is... READ MORE
MATERIALS SPDR IS STRONGEST SECTOR... Yesterday's article talked about using the Materials Select Sector SPDR as one way to participate in the industrial and precious metals rally. In today's trading, while everyone was looking at oil, metals markets turned in an even stronger performance. The XLB... READ MORE
OIL SERVICE INDEX HITS THREE-YEAR HIGH ... I recently suggested that although I thought the energy sector was over-extended on a short to intermediate term basis (and I still do), oil service stocks appear to offer the best value in the group. Chart 1 shows why. The last monthly bar in... READ MORE
JAPANESE STOCKS UNDER PRESSURE... Last Friday I showed some regions of the world that were benefitting from rising energy and commodity prices. Two of the top performers were Canada and Latin America. Both are big producers of natural resources. It works the opposite way for Japan. Japan is totally dependent... READ MORE
CRB INDEX HITS FOUR MONTH HIGH... The CRB Index (of seventeen commodities) gained 3.56 today to close over 281 for the first time in four months. Thirteen commodities rose. The fact that orange juice and cotton were among the biggest gainers may be due to hurricane activity. But that&... READ MORE
CANADA IS WINNER FOR THE WEEK ... Most global markets are doing better than the U.S. market. One way to spot the country or regional leaders is to view the weekly (or monthly) international rankings on the Fidelity Fund Carpet, which can be accessed through the Market Carpet on the... READ MORE
HISTORY OF OCTOBER TOPS... Late last week I mentioned that crude oil had a history of peaking during October or at least experiencing significant pullbacks. Chart 1 shows the track record. The monthly bars plot the history since 1990. The black arrows show those years where a sigificant pullback occurred... READ MORE
S&P BACKS OFF FROM 2004 TRENDLINE... With today's sharp pullback, it's a good idea to see where the pullback is coming from -- and why it shouldn't be too much of a surprise. I showed this chart last Friday to make the... READ MORE
FANNIE MAE FALLS THE HARDEST... It's not hard to see where most of the damage is being felt today. The biggest sector loser so far today is the financial group. The two biggest percentage losers in the S&P 500 are also financial stocks -- Fannie Mae... READ MORE
LONG-TERM RATES FALL IN FACE OF FED TIGHTENING ... The Fed raised the Fed funds rate another quarter of a point today as everyone expected. They also left their wording pretty much intact. That set in motion some intermarket relationships that may not make sense at first blush. For one thing,... READ MORE
END OF 20-YEAR BEAR MARKET... In my recent Intermarket Analysis book (and in several market messages from last year), one of the subjects I discussed was the re-emergence of commodity markets from a twenty-year bear market and their relative appeal as an asset class. That case is made pretty clear... READ MORE
BEST AND WORST OF THE DAY... Charts 1 and 2 pretty much sum up the major sector movers today. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR tumbled all the way to its August low -- pulled down by the likes of Colgate Palmolive, Procter & Gamble, Alberto Culver and tobacco stocks.... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS AND UTILITIES HIT 52-WEEK HIGHS... Two of the three Dow Averages reached a new 52-week high this week. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports closing decisively over its summer high. Chart 2 shows the Dow Utilities in an even stronger climb. Interestingly, the utilities seem to have attracted... READ MORE
INDUSTRIAL ETF NEARS SUMMER HIGH ... So far this week I've written about relative strength in biotech, the Internet, and the consumer discretionary groups. In each case, I first found a sector index that was displaying rising relative strength combined with strong chart action. The chart action is usually... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF HITS THREE-MONTH HIGH ... On a day when the market experienced minor gains, one of the standout groups was consumer discretionary stocks. Chart 1 shows the AMEX Consumer Discretionary Select SPDR hitting a new three-month high today on big volume. Its relative strength ratio line has been rising... READ MORE
BIOTECH BREAKOUT ... Biotech stocks continue to show good chart action and good relative strength. The purpose of this market messsage is to update my August 27 piece on the biotech group, show the technical improvement since then, and also sugget a number of ways of taking advantage of this rallying... READ MORE
MARKET IS OVERBOUGHT SHORT-TERM ... Earnings warnings in Coke and Xilinx contributed to some profit-taking in the Nasdaq and the big board today. Two other reasons for today's setback is a short-term overbought condition and the closeness to some overhead resistance levels in the major stock indexes. I showed... READ MORE
INTERNET INDEX CLEARS 200-DAY LINE... Although most of the talk in the recent technology revival has been about the SOX Index, Internet stocks are doing much better. Chart 1 shows the IIX Internet Index closing over its 200-day moving average for two consecutive days. [By comparison, the SOX Index has... READ MORE
NASDAQ EXCEEDS 50-DAY AVERAGE... In a continuation of Thursday's strong action, the Nasdaq led the rest of the market into a strong Friday close. As Chart 1 shows, the Nasdaq finally broke through its (blue) 50-day average at week's end for the first time since early... READ MORE
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS SPARKS SOX BUYING ... A high-volume gain in Texas Instruments help lead a 5% gain in the Semiconductor (SOX) Index which had just hit a new 52-week low yesterday. Chart 1 shows TXN gapping up and through its 50-day moving average and reaching a new high monthly high. The... READ MORE
NASDAQ MARKET HAS NO BOUNCE... One of the missing ingredients in the recent market rebound has been the lack of participation by the technology-dominated Nasdaq market. While the Dow and the S&P 500 have climbed over their 200-day moving averages, the Nasdaq indexes haven't been able... READ MORE
HOVNANIAN SPARKS HOME BUYING... Homebuilders are finally joining the rotation into rate-sensitive stocks groups -- like financials, utilities, and REITs. A high-volume breakout in Hovnanian Enterprises is today's main catalyst for the buying of homebuilders. Chart 1 shows HOV breaking through its summer high and its 200-day moving... READ MORE
CRUDE DROPS A DOLLAR -- GOLD UNDER $400 ... After recovering barely half of its August price decline, crude oil has fallen over a dollar today and is trading back under $43. That's giving a boost to the rest of the market. With oil falling, energy shares are seeing... READ MORE
RETAILERS LEAD DAY'S ADVANCE... Our midday market message focused on the upturn in retail stocks that started this morning. By day's end, the retail stocks achieved big gains and helped lead an impressive stock market advance. Chart 1 shows the AMEX Retail Holders (RTH) jumping to... READ MORE
MARKING UP RETAIL... Retail stocks are having an especially good day. Chart 1 shows the Retail Holders (RTH) jumping impressively over its 50-day average today on rising volume. Percentagewise, it's one of the day's strongest groups. The relative strength line bottomed in early August after months... READ MORE
AUGUST ENDS ON UPNOTE... After trading lower throughout most of the day, late buying pushed the market into positive territory -- thereby ending the month on an upnote. Volume remained below average. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 closing a shade above its 50-day moving average. It remains... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS FALL TO NEW LOW... The August drop in consumer confidence is boosting bond prices today and, at the same time, pushing yields to a new five-month low (see Chart 1). Hints at economic weakness are causing investors to sell some stocks and buy some bonds. Falling bond yields... READ MORE
HEALTH CARE ETF EXCEEDS 50-DAY AVERAGE... Over the past week, we've shown some of the leading market sectors -- mainly financials and materials -- that were either breaking out to the upside or close to doing so. Today, we're taking a closer look at the one... READ MORE
MATERIALS SECTOR SPDR NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT... One of the market's strongest sectors is basic materials. Chart 1 shows the Materials Select Sector SPDR close to breaking through its April/July peaks. That would be an impressive breakout if it occurs and would put the ETF at the highest... READ MORE
CRUDE BREAKS 20-DAY LINE... Crude oil continued its fall that started last Friday just shy of $50. It plunged $1.74 today to break its 20-day moving average for the first time in two months. Chart 1 shows the dotted 20-day average overlaid on the daily price chart along with... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM TOP IN PLACE... The price of oil continues to drop. Last Friday I showed the 14-day RSI at the most overbought level (over 70) in three months and starting to weaken. Chart 1 plots the 14-day stochastic lines which have turned down from overbought territory over 80. What may... READ MORE
GOLD HITS FOUR-MONTH HIGH ... My Thursday Market Message focused on an impending bullish breakout in gold as it tested its July peak at $410. Bullion completed that bullish breakout today with a gain of $6.20 to put it at a new four-month high. The Gold & Silver Index (XAU)... READ MORE
LOWER RATES HURT DOLLAR, BOOST CRB... Long-term rates have been dropping since June mainly due to signs of economic weakness resulting from rising energy prices. Chart 1 shows the 10-year T-note yield falling to the lowest level in four months and slipping beneath its 200-day moving average. That's... READ MORE
GOLD STOCK JUMP OVER 4%... Our midday message showed gold challenging its July peak at $410. Gold closed the day at $409. With gold on the verge of a bullish breakout, the Gold & Silver Index (XAU) gained more than 4% and closed at a new four-month high. Chart 1... READ MORE
BULLION IS TESTING JULY HIGH... Continuing weakness in the U.S. Dollar is lighting a fuse under the gold market -- and gold-related stocks. Gold is trading up more than $3.00 today and is testing its July peak at $410. A close through that chart barrier would represent a... READ MORE
GUEST COMMENTARY BY CHIP ANDERSON... John is visiting family in the western US right now so Chip Anderson, president of StockCharts.com, is filling in for him. John should be back by Thursday. MARKETCARPET DRILL DOWN... John has been a fan of our free MarketCarpet analysis tool for years and... READ MORE
CISCO AND NSM PLUNGE TO 2004 LOWS... All one need do is look at the first two charts to see where most of today's selling came from. Cisco, which is often considered a bellwether for technology, plunged 10% today to register a new 2004 low. And it did... READ MORE
DOW BOUNCES FROM OVERSOLD CONDITION ... The Dow Industrials gained well over a hundred points today after the Fed's expected decision to raise short-term rates another quarter point. The Fed's continued optimism about the pace of the economy may have encouraged some bottom-fishing. That and the fact... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 BREAK MAY LOWS... With the Nasdaq market having already fallen to a new for the year, it was just a matter of time until the Dow and the S&P 500 did the same. They did that on Friday -- and on rising... READ MORE
RETAILERS BREAK NECKLINE... Retailers got marked down today in a big way. Same stores sales for July rose at the second slowest level in nine months. Economists blame higher energy prices. That's simple economics. Yet most economists dismissed the threat from rising oil prices through the first half... READ MORE