S&P 500 STILL HASN'T CLEARED FEBRUARY INTRA-DAY HIGH... The news media has been quick to declare a new record high in the S&P 500. However, we may not be there just yet. The SPX did hit a new closing high. The February intra-day high,... READ MORE
* The Bear Market Case * Time for a Counter-Cyclical Rally? The Bear Market Case By most methods and approaches, the Dollar Index is in a bear market. Take Chart 1, for instance, which compares the Index to its long-term KST. The pink-shaded areas tell us when it is below its 12-month... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX HITS ANOTHER LOW... The greenback continues its decline to the lowest level in nearly two years. Chart 1 shows the Invesco US Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP) falling to another multi-year low today. And it's falling against all of its major trading partners. As is normally the... READ MORE
S&P 500 IS TESTING ITS FEBRUARY HIGH... The most important test going on at the moment is the S&P 500 challenging its February high. Its highest intra-day value shown in Chart 1 is 3393.52. The SPX closing high for February was 3386.15. Although the... READ MORE
EMERGING MARKET ETFS ALSO BENEFIT FROM WEAKER DOLLAR... My earlier message today made the point that a weaker dollar is benefiting foreign stock ETFs that are quoted in dollars. The message showed the rising euro benefiting eurozone ETFs with Germany on the verge of a bullish breakout. The same principle... READ MORE
EAFE ISHARES REACH SIX-MONTH HIGH... I wrote a message three weeks ago on Wednesday, July 22 to the effect that a weaker U.S. dollar was boosting foreign stocks ETFs that are quoted in dollars. When American investors buy foreign stocks, they're also indirectly buying local currencies. So... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the basic trend for bond yields around the world is still negative, as all series are in a clear-cut downtrend. The only exception is Japan, where the secular down trendline was violated earlier in the year. So far, though, the yield has only managed a sideways... READ MORE
GLOBAL YIELDS REBOUND... Bond yields are rebounding today. That may be partially due to an uptick in producer price inflation. Or the fact that global stocks are also rebounding which is driving some money out of bonds and into stocks. Global yields are rebounding along with stocks. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
DOW EXCEEDS JUNE HIGH... The Dow Industrials continue to gain ground on the rest of the stock market. And is the strongest of the three major stock indexes today. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading above their June intra-day peak at 27,600. The Dow is the last of... READ MORE
ALCOA CLEARS 200-DAY LINE...CENTURY ALUMINUM LEADS... Material stocks continue to act as market leaders. Strong gold miners are a big part of that. So are copper miners. Last Wednesday' message showed the Dow Jones Nonferrous Metals Index scoring a bullish breakout along with Freeport McMoran (FCX); and Southern... READ MORE
MODEST ROTATION TAKES PLACE... Big tech has been the main story in the market since the start of the pandemic with most of the rest of the market largely left behind. Over the past couple of weeks, however, we've started to see some money moving into weaker parts... READ MORE
I have written about commodities several times in the last four months or so as evidence of a major reversal had begun to appear. Now, more indicators are starting to turn. Near-term, things look overdone, but if this is really is a bull market, that will not matter, as short-term... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES AND DOW TRANSPORTS PASS JUNE HIGH...DOW GAINS...The rally in stocks continues to broaden out. Market groups that had lagged behind the stock recovery are starting to catch up. Small caps and transports are two examples. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) trading above... READ MORE
COPPER MINERS LEAD MATERIALS HIGHER... A falling dollar has been one of the big factors pushing commodity prices higher and stocks tied to them. Today's drop in the greenback to another two-year low is continuing the flow of money into commodity assets. Several messages over the last month... READ MORE
TECHS AND NASDAQ CONTINUE TO LEAD THE WAY... Big techology stocks are leading the market higher today again. Chart 1 show the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching a new high as did the Technology SPDR (XLK). Its biggest percentage gainers were Microsoft and a number of chip stocks. Chart 2 shows... READ MORE
THREE BIG TECHS LEAD FRIDAY REBOUND... Going into Thursday evening, most of the TV stock market commentary centered around the big tech stocks that were announcing quarterly earnings after the close. The consensus seemed to be that the big tech stocks had already seen huge gains for the year, and... READ MORE
On this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry goes out on a limb to explain why he thinks stocks in China are ready for significant decline. You'll get a sneak peek of his unique indicators coming soon to StockChartsACP, as Larry demonstrates their functions and... READ MORE
* Rising Commodity Momentum is Bullish for Stocks and the Economy * Long-Term Technicals Look Promising for Copper Swings in commodity prices are both a market and an economic indicator. There are certainly exceptions, but when the economy is in a recovery phase, commodity prices generally rise. During the early phase of... READ MORE
POINT & FIGURE CHARTS SHOW TRANSPORTATION BREAKOUTS...My morning message wrote about four transportation stocks that were achieving bullish breakouts. A glitch in the system, however, prevented me from showing their usual bar charts. So I've improvised a bit to bring their point & figure versions. Unlike bar... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS MOVE FURTHER ABOVE 200-DAY LINE... Transportation stocks are one of today's strongest groups. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports gaining 2% this morning and moving further above their 200-day moving average which is now acting as a line of support (see red arrow). My message on... READ MORE
REBOUND IN NASDAQ 100 STEADIES MARKET... Stocks are opening the week on a firmer note. A rebound in tech stocks is one of the reasons why. Last Thursday's high-volume selloff in tech stocks caused some nervous profit-taking as the week ended. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 TESTS 20-DAY LINE... A selloff in the biggest tech stocks is putting downside pressure on stocks today; and is helping make the Nasdaq 100 the day's biggest percentage loser. And it looks technically vulnerable to a deeper pullback. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the... READ MORE
EURO RALLIES TO TWO-YEAR HIGH... Yesterday's message showed the euro testing its March high. Chart 2 shows the eurozone currency trading above that level in today's trading. That puts the euro at the highest level in nearly two years. The rising euro is putting more downside... READ MORE
* The US versus the Rest of the World * Europe * Asia The US versus the Rest of the World Chart 1 shows that the up trend favoring the S&P Composite against the Vanguard All-World Ex-US ETF (the VEU) is intact. That's because the latest plot is above... READ MORE
RISING EURO PUSHES DOLLAR LOWER...Chart 1 show the Invesco Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) declining today to the lowest level since March. The dollar surged during the first quarter in a flight to safety as stock prices plunged. Then fell from late March to July as stocks recovered. And... READ MORE
SILVER ISHARES HIT FOUR-YEAR HIGH... Precious metals (and their mining ETFs) are rising again today with all of them hitting multi-year highs. As has been the case recently, however, silver (and its miners) are actually rising faster than gold (and its miners). The black daily bars in Chart 1 show... READ MORE
RAILS AND TRUCKERS LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER... Wednesday's message showed the Dow Transports closing above their 200-day line for the first time since early June. Chart 1 shows them continuing to build on that upturn. Their relative strength ratio in the upper box has turned up as well, which... READ MORE
* Technology About to Pause? * New Blood is Starting to Emerge * Two Fence Sitters Technology About to Pause? The undisputed king of sectors so far this year has been technology. This week's price action from the tech dominated NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ), though, suggests that this leadership may be rotating... READ MORE
S&P 500 TESTS JUNE HIGH... Stocks gained more ground today with ten of eleven sectors in the black. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ending the day just below its early June intra-day high at 3233. Also encouraging was better participation by value stocks which have... READ MORE
CATERPILLAR AND DEERE HAVE A STRONG DAY...With technology stocks underperforming for the second day in a row, money flowed into cheaper parts of the market today. All eleven sectors closed higher with energy, materials, industrials and healthcare in the lead. Energy is benefiting from crude oil prices over $40,... READ MORE
BUYING HEALTHCARE AGAIN... After taking a leadership role during March and April, healthcare stocks have essentially moved sideways over the last couple of months while the rest of the market has gained ground. The sector's recent underperformance can be seen by the falling XLV/SPX relative strength ratio... READ MORE
LONG-TERM TREND APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING TO GOLD OVER STOCKS... Recent messages showing the ongoing bull market in gold (and its miners) have stressed that a weaker dollar and historically low global interest rates have pushed the price of gold to the highest level in nearly nine years. Yesterday'... READ MORE
GOLD VERSUS THE DOLLAR... The generally inverse relationship between gold and the U.S. Dollar is one of the best known and reliable intermarket relationships. Part of the reason is that gold is traded in U.S. dollars. Another part is due to the fact that gold is often preferred... READ MORE
GOLD SPDR REACHES ANOTHER EIGHT-YEAR HIGH...Gold prices are on the rise again. The monthly bars in Chart 1 show the Gold Shares SPDR (GLD) rising to the highest level since 2012. The August gold contract has risen to $1820 and appears headed toward its 2011 peak at $1923. Gold... READ MORE
* Silver has been Range-Bound - But is That About to End? * Silver Shares Starting to Perk Up * Silver Bottoming Against Gold? Silver has been Range-Bound - But is That About to End? Gold has been in a strong bull market recently, which has eclipsed the performance of the gray metal.... READ MORE
CHINESE STOCKS AND COPPER HAVE BEEN RISING TOGETHER...This morning's message showed the Shanghai Stock Index surging to the highest level in two years; and mentioned that was also good for copper prices. This message elaborates a bit more on the relationship between the two. The red bars... READ MORE
CHINESE STOCK SOAR... A huge rally in China is leading a rally in stock markets around the world. The red arrow in Chart 1 shows the Shanghai Composite Index surging 5.7% to close at the highest level in more than two years. The SSEC close at 3332 also puts... READ MORE
DOW AND SPX REMAIN IN TRADING RANGES...Despite gaining ground this past week, little has changed for the market's major stock indexes. Continued buying of technology growth stocks pushed the Nasdaq Composite to a new record (Chart 1). The rest of the market, however, continued to lag behind.... READ MORE
* Shanghai Composite Ruptures Mega Trendline * Chinese ETFs Breaking as Well * Interesting Chinese Sector ETFs Back in March, I wrote about the Chinese stock market, as it had started to improve in terms of relative action against the S&P. Since then, Chinese equities have moved higher with no net... READ MORE
US DOLLAR HAD WEAK SECOND QUARTER... After surging during March (as stock prices plunged), the U.S. Dollar peaked in late March and moved lower during the second quarter. Rising stock prices during that quarter reduced the appeal of the dollar as a haven currency. Rising foreign currencies also reflected... READ MORE