HEALTHCARE SPDR NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT...Money has been flowing into healthcare stocks since the end of April. And the sector may be on the verge of a bullish breakout. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Health Care SPDR (XLV) testing its early March intra-day peak at 93.... READ MORE
* US Breaking Out Against the World * The World Itself Looks to be in Pretty Good Technical Shape * NYSE A/D and Upside/Downside Lines at Record Levels * More Short-Term US Market Indicators Turn Bullish * Multiple Momentum Trend Line Breaks is Very Positive * There Is Always Something to Worry About... READ MORE
MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SHOWS DEFENSIVE LEADERSHIP...Chart 1 is taken from the Sector Summary page for the past month. And it shows that investors are still gravitating toward defensive issues. Four of the top sectors are utilities, health care, real estate, and consumer staples. All four are defensive in nature. Even... READ MORE
GOLD MINERS ETF NEARS TEST OF 2019 HIGH...Yesterday's message wrote about the price of gold being in the late stages of a potential bottoming formation. It also suggested that three intermarket forces were working in gold's favor. They include a weaker dollar, falling interest rates,... READ MORE
A WEAKER DOLLAR INCREASES APPEAL OF GOLD... The brown monthly bars in Chart 1 show the price of gold forming a potential bottoming formation that started nearly four years ago when it hit bottom in late 2015. Since then, the price of bullion has traded between that low and a... READ MORE
BOTH McCLELLAN BREATH INDICATORS TURN UP... Chart 1 includes two breadth indicators that work together. Both are compared to the NYSE Composite Index (upper box). The dashed line in the lower part of the chart plots the McClellan Summation Index. That's a long term measure of market breadth.... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES CLEAR 50-DAY AVERAGES... Stocks are starting the week on a strong note. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow and S&P 500 trading above their 50-day averages. The Dow has also cleared initial resistance at 26,000. Chart 2 shows the SPX also exceeding... READ MORE
* Financial Velocity Indicator Poised to Go Bullish * Oversold NASDAQ Volume in a Position to Support a Rally * Rapid Expansion of Net New Highs is Bullish * Global Breadth Turning? * When Stock Exchanges Break to the Upside, That’s Usually Bullish for Stocks Financial Velocity Indicator Poised to Go Bullish One of... READ MORE
DOW ENDS WEEKLY LOSING STREAK The Dow Industrials gained 263 points today (1.02%) to end the week on a strong note. That also ends a six-week losing streak for the blue chip index. Chart 1 shows the Dow regaining its 200-day average on Wednesday, and ending the... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD NEARS TEST OF 2017 LOW... The 10-Year Treasury yield is falling another 6 basis points today to 2.06% which is drawing dangerously close to its 2017 low. The weekly bars in Chart 2 show that year's intra-day yield low at 2.... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE SPDR MAY BE TURNING UP ... The health care sector may be nearing an upside breakout. The daily bars in Chart 1 shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV) trading above its 200-day average in today's trading; and testing its late May intra-day peak at 90.18.... READ MORE
The monthly Market Roundup video for June is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of Pring Turner Capital Group of Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
* Long-Term Picture Shows Gold Close to a Breakout * The Shares Are on the Cusp As Well * Short-Term Indicators for Gold Go Bullish * Yen Emerging From a Breakout I like to use an indicator that I call “Risk On Risk Off,” which combines an index comprising several risky entities... READ MORE
S&P 500 TRADES BACK OVER ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE... A combination of a short-term oversold condition and dovish sounding comments from the head of the Fed are giving a big lift to stocks today. All major indexes are are showing strong gains with the Nasdaq in the... READ MORE
200-DAY AVERAGES ARE BEING BROKEN... The threat of tariffs on Mexican imports is rattling global markets today. And more technical damage is being done. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling below their March low near 25,200. That puts the Dow at the lowest level since late January.... READ MORE
* Flight to Safety Leaves Stocks Behind * S&P vs. Gold is Another Measure of Confidence That’s Deteriorating * High-Quality Bonds Like Deteriorating Confidence * A Rising Gold/Commodity Ratio is Actually Bearish for Commodities Flight to Safety Leaves Stocks Behind Last week, I wrote that it was nail-biting... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD MAY BE HEADING TO 2%... The surprising drop in global bond yields is continuing. The weekly bars in Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield falling today to 2.22% which is the lowest level since September 2017. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show... READ MORE
* Current Trend of Declining Rates Seen as Part of a Large Base * Downside Breakouts in Yields are Worldwide in Scope * US Short-Rates Look Vulnerable as Well * 30-Year Yield Completes a Top * Stocks and Commodities versus Bonds Current Trend of Declining Rates Seen as Part of a Large Base... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE IS GETTING BETTER ... While a lot of attention is being given to stock market swings over the last month, and recent selling in everything related to tariffs and global trade, one group has been quietly getting stronger. And that's healthcare. Healthcare remains this year's weakest... READ MORE
TRADE TENSIONS CONTINUE TO WEIGH ON STOCKS... Stocks are under heavy selling pressure today. Energy stocks are leading the market lower with a drop of more than -3%, while oil is dropping nearly twice as much. Technology, industrials, and financials are down -2% or more. As has been the case... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS FALL BACK BELOW 200-DAY LINE... Transportation stocks are one of the weakest parts of the market today. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Transportation Average now trading below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Not surprisingly, tranports are also showing relative weakness. The blue line in... READ MORE
* Top or Consolidation for Equities? * Agricultural Commodities Perking Up Following a Severe Sell-Off * Grains Fully Supporting Price Action in the DBA Top or Consolidation for Equities? The S&P, like the other market averages, has been in a trading range since March. We will have to see how... READ MORE
WEEKLY SECTOR RANKINGS SHOW DEFENSIVE MARKET ... The table in Chart 1 plots the relative performance of the eleven market sectors for the week. And they show a generally defensive market. That can be seen by the fact that REITs, utilities, and consumer staples are the three top sectors for the... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR REGAINS 50-DAY LINE... Stocks are having another strong day today with all eleven market sectors in the red. Cyclical stocks are helping lead it higher. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) trading back over its 50-day average (blue line). Two of its biggest... READ MORE
SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES BOUNCE OFF CHART SUPPORT... Technology stocks are helping lead today's stock rebound. With help from semiconductors. Chart 1 shows the PHLX Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) bouncing off potential chart support along its August/September highs near 190. Its 9-day RSI line (upper box) is also bouncing... READ MORE
* Gold Breaks Out against Stocks * Gold Itself is about to Test Mega-Resistance * When Gold Beats Stocks, that’s usually Bullish for Gold - and Bearish for Stocks * Gold Leads Commodities Gold Breaks Out against Stocks Monday saw the gold/stock ratio break decisively above its 2019 downtrend line. The line... READ MORE
STOCK SELLING CONTINUES ... Stock prices fell sharply again today and are continuing the trade-inspired selling that started last week. Retaliatory tariffs announced by China appear to be the main catalyst pushing global stocks lower. As a result, markets with the most exposure to trade tensions and Chinese tariffs are... READ MORE
CHINESE STOCKS LEAD WEEKLY RETREAT ... An escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China pushed global stocks lower this past week. The S&P 500 lost -2.2% which was its biggest weekly drop this year. Canadian and U.S. stocks are meeting resistance at their 2018... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE SECTOR DOESN'T LOOK VERY DEFENSIVE... During a guest appearance yesterday on StockChartsTV with Erin Swenlin and Tom Bowley, one of our viewers asked if healthcare was considered a defensive sector, and was it a good sector to hold in the current environment. My response was that some... READ MORE
* Long-Term Divergences * Some Short-Term Technical Sell Signals Triggered in the Last Few Days * Prices May Be Falling, But Bond Spreads (Confidence) are Holding in There Long-Term Divergences My first reaction to this week’s stock market tantrum (in response to the China trade talks) was to brush... READ MORE
TRADE TENSIONS RATTLE OVEREXTENDED GLOBAL STOCKS ... Renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China rattled global stocks this week. Stock prices are rising and falling with each news report. After falling sharply yesterday (Tuesday), stocks are rebounding today on more optimistic news reports about the meeting between U.S.... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES LOSE MORE GROUND ... The stock market pullback that started yesterday is continuing again today. And all three major stock indexes appear headed for a test of underlying moving average lines. First and foremost, it's where this pullback is starting from that's most concerning.... READ MORE
S&P 500 TRIES TO REGAIN RECORD HIGH ... A surprisingly strong jobs report this morning has given stocks a big boost today. All major indexes are having a strong day with the Nasdaq and small caps in the lead (more on that shortly). Transports are also having an especially... READ MORE
* Two Key Commodity Benchmarks Violated Trend Lines * Commodity Sector ETFs Breaking as Well * Longer-Term Picture May be Reversing In early April, I tacked on a couple of commodity charts at the end of an article that commented on global equities breaking out. There, I noticed that some commodity indexes... READ MORE
COMMODITIES HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR A DECADE ... Yesterday's message suggested that weaker commodity prices should provide some comfort to the Fed since subdued inflation would allow the Fed to keep rates on hold and prolong the decade-long economic recovery. It turns out the Fed is more worried... READ MORE
Here is the link to this month's Market Roundup video. There are a significant number of long-term charts that are starting to turn higher suggesting, that the brief economic slowdown in late 2018 is behind us and we are starting the next major leg higher. Market Roundup... READ MORE
COMMODITY PRICES WEAKEN ... One of the factors the Fed is now considering to help formulate its monetary policy for the rest of the year is the question of inflation. Rising inflation puts pressure on the Fed to raise rates. Flat or falling inflation allows the Fed to stick with its... READ MORE
APRIL REBOUND IN FINANCIALS IS GIVING A BIG BOOST TO SMALL CAPS... I've been writing about the recent upturn in financial stocks and, to a lesser extent, small cap stocks. I also suggested that a stronger dollar might be helping smaller stocks. That's because a rising... READ MORE
INDUSTRIAL SPDR GAPS LOWER ... In a mixed market day, industrials are the weakest sector. Chart 1 shows the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) gapping lower today. That hasn't caused any serious chart damage with the XLI still trading well above its blue 50-day average. It is worth noting,... READ MORE
* The SPY/EFA Ratio Completes an Inverse Head-and-Shoulders * SPY/EFA Breakout also Bullish for the Dollar * The Euro, Swiss Franc and Yen * China Bucks the Flow The SPY/EFA Ratio Completes an Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Yesterday’s all-time new high in the S&P was... READ MORE