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TEN-YEAR TREASURY IS TESTING ITS MAY HIGH -- A CLOSE ABOVE THAT LEVEL WOULD CONSTITUTE A MAJOR BULLISH BREAKOUT -- RISING TREASURY YIELDS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY HIGHER FOREIGN YIELDS -- UK BOND YIELD HAS REACHED A TWO-YEAR HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IS AT A CRUCIAL CHART POINT ... Treasury bond yields are going through an important test of overhead resistance. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield ($TNX) challenging its May 2018 intra high near 3.11%. After pulling back from its May high, the TNX entered a sideways...   READ MORE 

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ENERGY PRICES RISE AS OPEC DOESN'T BOOST OUTPUT -- DB ENERGY FUND RISES TO THREE-YEAR HIGH -- ENERGY SECTOR SPDR RISES TO TWO-MONTH HIGH -- SO DOES THE S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION SPDR -- MARATHON PETROLEUM HITS NEW RECORD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INVESCO DB ENERGY FUND REACHES THREE-YEAR HIGH ... This past weekend's meeting between OPEC and Russia ended with no agreement to boost output to counter rising oil price. As a result, oil and other energy prices are rising sharply today. Chart 1 shows the Invesco DB Energy Fund (DBE)...   READ MORE 

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WEEKLY RECAP SHOWS MATERIALS AND FINANCIALS LEADING MARKET HIGHER, WHILE TECHNOLOGY AND UTILITIES LAG BEHIND -- RECORD HIGH IN THE DOW MAY BE TIED TO EASING IN GLOBAL TENSIONS AND REBOUND IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES AND STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MATERIALS AND FINANCIALS LEAD, TECHS AND UTES LAG: The Dow and S&P 500 hit new records this past week, while the Nasdaq lost some ground. A rebound in chemicals and copper stocks made materials the weekly leader. Financials benefited from a jump in bond yields. That also explains...   READ MORE 

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UNITED STATES OIL FUND IS TESTING SUMMER HIGH -- WHILE ENERGY SPDR TESTS AUGUST HIGH -- ENERGY LEADERS INCLUDE CONOCOPHILLIPS, HESS, AND MARATHON OIL -- EXXON MOBIL AT EIGHT-MONTH HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

UNITED STATES OIL FUND NEARS THREE-YEAR HIGH... The price of crude oil has reached a critical chart juncture. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund (USO) in the process of testing its early July peak. A close through that barrier would put the USO at the highest level in...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND S&P 500 HIT NEW RECORDS -- THE DOW IS THE LAST ONE TO CLEAR ITS JANUARY HIGH -- COMMODITY CHEMICALS HELP BOOST MATERIALS SPDR TO SIX MONTH HIGH -- SEMICONDUCTORS CONTINUE TO STABILIZE -- U.S. DOLLAR FALLS TO TWO-MONTH LOW

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

THE DOW IS THE LAST TO CLEAR ITS JANUARY HIGH... Another day of rising stock prices has pushed the Dow and the S&P 500 to new records. In the case of the SPX (Chart 1), today's new high is enough to push it back above its...   READ MORE 

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Dollar Index Is On A Knife Edge

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Long-term dollar technical position * Short-term picture bearish outcome * Short-term picture bullish outcome * Euro * Yen * Swiss franc Long-term dollar technical position I have been primary trend bullish on the dollar for several months. That opinion still stands because the Dollar Index is well above its 12-month MA and its long-term KST...   READ MORE 

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FOUR-MONTH HIGH IN THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD LIFTS FINANCIAL SPDR TO SIX-MONTH HIGH AND THE DAY'S STRONGEST SECTOR -- BUT MAKES UTILITIES THE DAY'S WEAKEST SECTOR

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RISING BOND YIELDS HELP FINANCIALS, BUT HURT UTILITIES... This morning's message suggested that this week's upside breakout in bond yields was helping financial stocks which were the day's strongest sector. The green bars on top of Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield surging...   READ MORE 

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UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN BOND YIELDS IS BOOSTING FINANCIAL STOCKS -- CITIGROUP AND JP MORGAN NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUTS -- INSURANCE ISHARES HIT SEVEN-MONTH HIGH TO LEAD XLF HIGHER -- PRUDENTIAL AND PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP ACHIEVE UPSIDE BREAKOUTS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIALS GET A BOOST FROM RISING BOND YIELDS ... Yesterday's message showed the 10-Year Treasury yield rising to the highest level in four months. That probably explains why financials are leading the market higher today. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) bouncing sharply off its moving average...   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD EXCEEDS 3% -- 20-YEAR T-BOND ISHARES BREAK SUPPORT -- THE DOW NEARS ITS JANUARY HIGH -- BOEING AND CATERPILLAR CLEAR RESISTANCE -- QQQ HOLDS 50-DAY LINE -- SEMICONDUCTORS CONTINUE TO STABILIZE ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REACHES FOUR-MONTH HIGH ... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) rising above its twin summer peaks near 3.00% and reaching the highest level in four months. That upside move breaks the TNX out of the three-month sideways pattern that it had been trading in; and...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS LOSE SOME UPSIDE MOMENTUM --AMAZON AND MCDONALDS PULL CYCLICALS LOWER -- INDUSTRIALS CONTINUE TO RALLY -- LED BY FEDEX, HARRIS CORP, AND PACCAR -- TEN-YEAR YIELD TESTS 3% AGAIN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SHORT-TERM SIGNS OF WEAKNESS ... The uptrend in U.S. stocks remains very much intact. However, upside momentum is weakening a bit. Chart 1, for example, shows the S&P 500 trading sideways over the past couple of weeks which is not unusual. The daily MACD lines (which are overlaid...   READ MORE 

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Is It A Bubble When ...

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* A few thoughts on bubbles * Technical comments on the Dow Jones Internet Commerce Index * China on the brink A few thoughts on bubbles Last week, I pointed out that most of the FAANG stocks remained in uptrends, with the possible exception of Netflix and the confirmed bear market in Facebook....   READ MORE 

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Facebook Does An About Face, But What About The Other FAANG Stocks?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* NASDAQ breadth data offers conflicting signals * Bullish FAANG Stocks * De-fanged stock NASDAQ breadth data offering conflicting signals We have seen some attention paid to tech stocks as they have corrected in the last week or so. The so called FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet’s Google and Netflix) have been...   READ MORE 

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CONSUMER DISRETIONARY SPDR IS YEAR'S STRONGEST SECTOR -- BUT IT MAY BE OVERSTATING SECTOR'S STRENGTH -- ITS EQUAL WEIGHTED ETF IS LAGGING THE XLY BY AN USUALLY WIDE GAP OF 11% -- OUTSIZED GAINS IN AMAZON AND NETFLIX MAY EXAGGERATING ITS 2018 PERFORMANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR IS YEAR'S STRONGEST SECTOR ... Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) trading near a new record. Its 2018 gain of 18% makes it the year's strongest sector. That puts the XLY ahead of technology (16%) and healthcare (12%) for the year. In...   READ MORE 

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TWITTER LEADS TECH STOCKS LOWER -- DEFENSIVE CONSUMER STAPLES, UTILITIES, AND REITS CONTINUE TO ATTRACT NEW MONEY -- NETFLIX WEIGHS ON CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS -- AMAZON IS A QUARTER OF THE XLY AND MAY BE OVERSTATING THIS YEAR'S CYCLICAL LEADERSHIP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

OVERBOUGHT TECH SECTOR SEES SOME PROFIT-TAKING ... Chart 1 shows the Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) losing more than 1% today to lead the market lower. Its 9-day RSI line (top chart) had reached overbought territory above 70 suggesting that the XLK was due for a pullback. It's now testing...   READ MORE 

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September 2018 Market Roundup With Martin Pring

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

The MarketRoundup Video For September is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates....   READ MORE 

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US Stocks Take On Global Equities, Gold, Commodities And Bonds

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* US Equities versus the world * Stocks versus Commodities * Stocks and bonds * Stocks compared to gold There are lots of seasonal reasons to be bearish on the stock market, such as September being the weakest month and mid-term election years having a downward bias. However, if you compare the S&...   READ MORE 

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U.S. STOCKS HAVE A STRONG AUGUST -- TECHNOLOGY, CONSUMER CYCLICALS, AND HEALTHCARE ARE SECTOR LEADERS -- U.S. STOCK UPTREND IS STRETCHED BUT STILL INTACT -- MEXICAN PESO STEADIES ON TRADE DEAL -- CANADIAN DOLLAR DROPS ON FRIDAY'S LACK OF AGREEMENT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS HAVE A STRONG AUGUST ... U.S. stocks had a strong August with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Dow Transports hitting record highs. Technology, Consumer Cyclicals, and Healthcare saw the biggest percentage gains and hit record highs. The three weakest sectors were Energy, Materials, and Industrials....   READ MORE 

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LATE AUGUST REBOUND IN FOREIGN STOCKS HELPED PUSH U.S. STOCKS TO NEW RECORD -- AND CONTRIBUTED TO UPSIDE BREAKOUTS IN GLOBAL STOCK INDEXES -- THE DOW INDUSTRIALS ARE HEADED TOWARD THEIR JANUARY PEAK -- THE DOW TRANSPORTS HIT A NEW RECORD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FOREIGN STOCK ETFS ARE FINALLY BOUNCING ... Before leaving on vacation on August 15, I expressed concern about the fact that foreign stock ETFs were lagging too far behind the U.S. which could threaten the uptrend in the S&P 500 which was nearing a test of its January...   READ MORE 

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Bond Yields Reach A Critical Support Zone

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The longer-term picture argues for lower yields * Deflationary forces gain the upper hand * Bond yields at crucial short-term support * UK Yields in a life or death struggle The longer-term picture argues for lower yields Earlier in the month I wrote an article pointing out that many bond yields had reached...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS IN STRONG REBOUND AFTER SURVIVING TEST OF 50-DAY AVERAGES YESTERDAY -- ALL SECTORS ARE IN THE BLACK -- A REBOUND IN FOREIGN MARKETS IS ALSO HELPING -- NEWS OF CHINA NEGOTIATIONS MAY ALSO BE SUPPORTING THE STOCK UPTURN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MAJOR STOCK AVERAGES REBOUND SHARPLY... U.S. stock indexes are having an unusually strong day. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing more than 400 points (1.6%) in afternoon trading. The Dow tested its 50-day average yesterday and held. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500...   READ MORE 

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More Evidence Of A Commodity Bear Market

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Commodities starting to generate some long-term sell signals * Internals and commodity   intermarket relationships are deteriorating * Energy has been lagging on the downside but may be ready to play catch up Earlier in the summer I wrote a couple of articles on copper and oil suggesting some short-term vulnerability, but concluding...   READ MORE 

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FOREIGN STOCKS LEAD U.S. LOWER -- EMERGING MARKETS AND EAFE ISHARES FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL IN A YEAR -- STRONGER DOLLAR AND WEAKNESS IN CHINA PUSH METALS LOWER AND STOCKS TIED TO THEM -- ENERGY STOCKS ARE ALSO WEAKENING WITH OIL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FOREIGN STOCK ETFS FALL TO NEW LOWS... Last Thursday's message expressed concern that weakness in foreign stocks could start to weigh on U.S. stocks, especially with the S&P 500 testing major resistance at its January high. That dangerous situation has taken a turn for the...   READ MORE 

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Getting Through The Old Highs Could Be A Challenge

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Last week's test of the highs leaves a lot to be desired * Breadth and momentum indicators fail to confirm * Some international charts not looking so good Last week's test of the highs leaves a lot to be desired If the charts in this article look a...   READ MORE 

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U.S. STOCKS MAY BE GETTING TOO FAR AHEAD OF THE REST OF THE WORLD -- U.S. STOCKS USUALLY DO BETTER WHEN FOREIGN STOCKS ARE ALSO RISING -- U.S. STOCK RECORDS IN 2012 AND 2016 WERE SUPPORTED BY RISING FOREIGN SHARES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 IS TESTING ITS JANUARY HIGH ... The black bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 nearing a test of its January high. That's an important test for it and the rest of the market. A test of a previous high is very...   READ MORE 

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LONG-RANGE DOLLAR UPTREND REMAINS INTACT -- LATE CYCLE COMMODITY UPTURN IS UNLIKELY WITH A RISING DOLLAR -- STRONG DOLLAR FAVORS U.S. OVER FOREIGN STOCKS -- ESPECIALLY EMERGING MARKETS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

LONG-TERM TREND OF THE DOLLAR IS STILL UP... The direction of the U.S. dollar is important because it influences (or is influenced by) by a lot of other markets. That includes commodities, global interest rates, and global stocks. Dollar direction also influences the relative performance of small cap stocks...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIAL SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- INDUSTRIAL SPDR MAY BE NEXT -- MATERIALS SPDR REGAINS MOVING AVERAGE LINES -- THE DOW INDUSTRIALS AND TRANSPORTS ARE BREAKING OUT TOGETHER -- THE S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF JANUARY HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIALS SPDR BREAKS OUT ... Global stocks are having a strong day. Rebounds in foreign developed and emerging markets set the tone for higher trading in the states. All major U.S. indexes are in the black, as are most stock sectors. The strongest sectors are energy, financials, industrials, and materials....   READ MORE 

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Are We Seeing The Early Sign Of A Change In Market Leadership?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The Inflation/Deflation ratio * Lagging sectors * Defensive sectors The Inflation/Deflation ratio Last week I charted my Inflation/deflation ratio for the first time in a while and was surprised to see that it had broken to the downside. For those unfamiliar with the concept, the Inflation Ratio (!PRII) consists...   READ MORE 

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DEFENSIVE STOCKS ARE LEADING THE MARKET HIGHER -- CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR TURNS UP AND SHOWS MARKET LEADERSHIP -- SO DO UTILITIES AND REITS -- PHARMA IS LEADING HEALTHCARE SECTOR HIGHER -- ALL OF WHICH SUGGESTS INVESTORS MAY BE TURNING MORE DEFENSIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER STAPLES TURN UP... Although the stock market continued to climb this week, it's a little surprising to see defensive stocks leading it higher. The four strongest sectors this past week were REITs (+3.3%), healthcare (+2.1%), consumer staples (+1.7%), and utilities (+1.2%). All did...   READ MORE 

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Bond Yields Hit Mega Resistance. Will They Go Through?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* 3- and 10-year series challenging their secular down trendlines * Three indicators that suggest lower bond yields * The Crunch Chart 3- and 10-year series challenging their secular down trend lines US government bond yields have reached very important resistance, at a time when they are overextended on a long-term momentum basis....   READ MORE 

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SELLING IN CHINA UNSETTLES GLOBAL STOCKS THIS MORNING ON TARIFF THREATS -- BUT US STOCK INDEXES ARE RECOVERING FROM EARLY SELLING -- MATERIAL STOCKS ARE DAY'S WEAKEST SECTOR -- TECHNOLOGY SPDR AND QQQ BOUNCE OFF 50-DAY LINES TO LEAD MARKET RECOVERY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TARIFF THREATS PUSH CHINESE MARKETS LOWER ... Threats of higher tariffs on Chinese imports, combined with Chinese threats of retaliation, put international markets on the defensive today. It started in Asia, spread to Europe, and caused a lower stock opening here. China took the biggest hit. The red line in Chart...   READ MORE 

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August Market Round Up With Martin Pring Video 2018-08-01

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

This month, the Market Roundup carries a lot of information about how acute the current market position is in globally. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of Pring...   READ MORE 

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INDUSTRIAL SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT TO LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- XLI LEADERS INCLUDE XYLEM, HARRIS, AND EATON -- THE DOW TRANSPORTS ARE CHALLENGING THEIR JUNE HIGH -- TRAN LEADERS INCLUDE FEDEX AND RYDER -- PFIZER SURGES TO NEW RECORD TO LEAD DOW HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INDUSTRIAL SPDR REACHES FOUR-MONTH HIGH ... While media attention seems to be focused on struggling FANG stocks, investors are putting their money elsewhere. Chart 1 shows the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) rising above its June high to reach the highest level in four months. That's a healthy sign for...   READ MORE 

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SMALL CAPS LOOK TOPPY AND ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN -- WHILE THE S&P 500 SPDR IS TESTING OVERHEAD RESISTANCE AT ITS JANUARY HIGH -- THAT COULD LEAD TO A CHOPPY AUGUST

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL CAPS ROLL OVER WHILE SPY TESTS JANUARY HIGH ... Stocks are beginning to look a little toppy. That's especially true of small caps. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT) ending the week below its 50-day moving average (blue circle). The RUT has been losing...   READ MORE 

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AIRLINES LEAD TRANSPORTS AND INDUSTRIAL SPDR HIGHER -- UAL IS AIRLINE LEADER -- ALASKA AIR, SOUTHWEST, AND DELTA HAVE A STRONG DAY -- INDUSTRIAL SPDR ALSO TURNS UP -- KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN AND L3 TECHNOLGIES HELP LEAD XLI HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO GAIN GROUND ... The Dow Transports continue to gain altitude. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports trading at the highest level in a month and nearing a challenge of its June high. Yesterday's message showed the TRAN being driven higher by United Parcel Service (UPS)...   READ MORE 

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UPS LEADS TRANSPORTS HIGHER TODAY -- CSX AND NORFOLK SOUTHERN LEAD STRONG RAIL GROUP -- TRUCKERS RYDER AND CH ROBINSON ARE ALSO LEADING -- RISING OIL PRICES HAVE HURT AIRLINE PERFORMANCE -- BUT ARE BOOSTING ENERGY SHARES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW TRANSPORTS REGAIN 50-DAY AVERAGE... The Dow Jones Transportation Average has been trying to gain altitude after successfully bouncing off its 200-day moving average over the past month. But it's been a choppy advance. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports regaining its 50-day average today after being pulled...   READ MORE 

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This Week's NASDAQ High Was A Lonely Place

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Tuesday was a Key Reversal Day * Breadth fails to confirm Tuesday’s high * Primary uptrend is intact, but will it be threatened? Tuesday was a Key Reversal Day This week the NASDAQ Composite registered a new all-time-high, but the quality of that rally leaves a lot to be desired. That...   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD KEEPS CLIMBING -- THAT PUSHES BOND PRICES FURTHER BELOW RESISTANCE -- THAT'S LIFTING FINANCIALS AND BANKS IN PARTICULAR -- BANK LEADERS ARE BANK OF AMERICA, JP MORGAN, AND SUNTRUST -- NORTHERN TRUST NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE AS BOND PRICES DROP... The upturn in Treasury yields that started on Friday is gaining more momentum today. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield ($TNX) climbing 5 basis points to the highest level in more than a month. It's also climbed...   READ MORE 

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CHART ANALYSIS STILL FAVORS A HIGHER TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD -- WEAKER FOREIGN YIELDS HAVE HELD THE TNX BACK -- RISING RATES HURT CONSUMER STAPLES WHILE FAVORING CYCLICALS -- FALLING COMMODITY PRICES HAVE BOOSTED BOND PRICES -- OVERBOUGHT DOLLAR WEAKENS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

THE MAJOR TREND STILL FAVORS HIGHER BOND YIELDS... Yesterday's message showed the 7-10 Year T-bond iShares (IEF) testing important overhead resistance at its spring highs and 200-day moving average, and the impact bond direction usually has on rate-sensitive sectors like financials, utilities, and REITS. Rising rates usually favor...   READ MORE 

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TREASURY PRICES ARE TESTING OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- RISING BOND PRICES ARE BOOSTING UTILITIES AND REITS AT THE EXPENSE OF FINANCIALS -- FINANCIAL/UTILITY RATIO HAS BEEN FALLING THIS YEAR -- BUT IS TESTING TRENDLINE SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND ETF IS TESTING OVERHEAD RESISTANCE ... Treasury bond prices have been climbing since the middle of May. And they've reached an important chart point. Chart 1 shows the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond iShares (IEF) in the process of testing overhead resistance along their early April/late May peaks,...   READ MORE 

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Is Gold In A Bear Market Or A Buying Opportunity?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Long-term trends rolling over to the downside * A rising dollar does not help gold * Gold Under-performing stocks is not a good thing….for gold * Gold showing bear market characteristics Long-term trends rolling over to the downside The recent sell off in the price of gold has quite frankly surprised me....   READ MORE