S&P 500 IS RETESTING ITS OCTOBER LOW ... Since the nearly nearly three year uptrend that started in stocks in early 2016 appears to have peaked, an eventual retest of early 2018 lows appears likely. That would mean an eventual retest of February/April lows on the S&... READ MORE
* Indexes on the Brink * Confidence Relationships Starting to Break Down * Watch the Stock/Bond Ratio Indexes on the Brink More than once a week, I make sure to check several ratios that tell me whether investors and traders are getting more or less confident. These relationships, which we will get... READ MORE
CORRECTION: ... My message from last Wednesday showed negative readings on weekly and monthly stock charts, and referred back to an earlier message on that same topic. However, I incorrectly gave a date of May 13. The correct date of that earlier article is October 13, 2018. I also mentioned that... READ MORE
DESPITE LATE REBOUND, STOCK INDEXES LOSE GROUND... Despite a rebound on Thursday and Friday, all major U.S. stock indexes lost ground this week. But very little changed on their respective chart patterns. Chart 1 shows an upside reversal on Thursday keeping the Dow Industrials above its 200-day average.... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM STOCK TREND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ... Today's higher open is giving way to more afternoon selling. We've seen that same pattern over the past week as stock prices have started to slide again. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500... READ MORE
* Commodities in General Remain in a Bear Market * Oil is Also in a Primary Bear Market * The Chart That Says That Some Kind of Bottom is at Hand I last wrote about oil back in early August, in an article entitled More Evidence Of A Commodity Bear Market. Back then,... READ MORE
TECHNOLOGY SPDR FALLS FURTHER BELOW ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE ... Technology stocks continue to lead the stock market lower today. The Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) fell back below its 200-day average on Friday, and is falling further below it today (Chart 1). To get an idea of how much the... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL ENTERS BEAR MARKET... Commodities as a group have been under a lot of selling pressure for several months. But the weakest part of that group over the past month has been energy. Chart 1 shows the price of WTIC Light Crude Oil (through yesterday) falling to the lowest... READ MORE
* Indexes Reach Resistance and Retrace 61.8% of the Decline * Hourly Charts Offer the First Domino * Short-Term Breadth is Overstretched * NASDAQ Sports a Series of Declining Peaks and Troughs Indexes Reach Resistance and Retrace 61.8% of the Decline The market has been on a tear for the last... READ MORE
THE DOW LEADS STOCK UPTURN ... Major stock indexes are building on their November gains on the day after the midterm elections. The Dow is leading on the upside. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials already trading above chart resistance at 25,800 and trying to clear its 50-day average.... READ MORE
* The Long-Term Picture * Price Action Characteristics are Bearish * Gold Share Breadth is Negative * The Now or Never Chart The Long-Term Picture Gold was in a secular bull market between 2001 and 2011. It then sold off into 2014 and has been essentially range bound ever since. Chart 1... READ MORE
The Market Roundup Video For November is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
APPLE FALLS ON GOOD NEWS ... It's usually not a good sign when the market's biggest stock takes a big hit. That's especially true when it happens the day after the company reported its fourth consecutive quarter of record revenue and profits. But that'... READ MORE
* Key moving averages violated in October * The world peaked in January * What happened to sectors and breadth? * February versus October conclusion * Those pesky bonds Key Moving Averages Violated in October So far, 2018 has seen two sharp shakeouts in the market, specifically the ten-day special in early February and... READ MORE
SMALL AND MIDCAP STOCKS INDEXES BOUNCE OFF FEBRUARY LOWS... A lot of technical signs point to a short-term bottom in place for stocks. That suggests that major stock indexes will try to regain some of their October losses. The big question is how much of those losses. Before getting... READ MORE
* A few observations about the secular trend * Short-term technical position * Junk bonds peak out * Credit spreads argue for lower government yields A Few Observations About the Secular Trend The 5-year yield, shown in Chart 1, has formed and broken out from a major base. It touched a low... READ MORE
S&P 500 HEADED FOR A RETEST OF EARLY 2018 LOWS ... I keep hearing on CNBC that stocks are down sharply but "off their lows". They never seem to mention that they're even further "off their highs". After losing nearly 4% over the... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCKS ARE LEADING THE U.S. LOWER... U.S. stocks are under pressure for a lot of reasons that have been described in previous messages. There's been the rotation over the last month out of economically-sensitive stock groups like cyclicals, industrials, energy, materials, and technology into... READ MORE
S&P 500 CONTINUES TO TEST MAJOR SUPPORT LINES... After a rebound attempt on Tuesday, stocks ended the week pretty much where they started, but on the defensive. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 Large Cap Index closing Friday right on its 200-... READ MORE
THE DOW RETESTS 200-DAY LINE... My last two messages spelled out a lot of technical reasons that are bearish for the stock market, and increase the odds that the nine-year bull run is ending. Besides the heavy selling that's taken place during October, my weekend message... READ MORE
* Internet bubble * Credit spreads * Rising interest rates * Contagion from abroad On Wednesday, I joined Tom and Erin on MarketWatchers LIVE and enjoyed a spirited discussion on what signs might foreshadow an extension to last week’s decline, or even signal a bear market. The four areas I cited were the... READ MORE
DEFENSIVE HEALTHCARE SECTOR CONTINUES TO LEAD ... Healthcare has emerged as the market's strongest sector. Not only has healthcare been the market's strongest sector over the last month, the last three months, and the last six months. It's now the top performer for the year.... READ MORE
S&P 500 HOLDS 200-DAY AVERAGE ... A stock rebound on Friday prevented a more serious market breakdown. That's because it allowed the S&P 500, and some other market gauges, to hold at or above their 200-day moving averages (Chart 1). That included the... READ MORE
GROWTH AND VALUE STOCKS ARE BOTH FALLING... One of the explanations for this week's big selloff is that the upside breakout in bond yields is hurting growth stocks. That's been especially true of consumer discretionary and technology stocks which suffered the biggest losses this month. Chart... READ MORE
* The big global picture * US equities are violating key trend lines * Financials experience false upside breakout * Energy triggers a false positive * Bubble-prone e-commerce on the verge of being pricked! Last week, I wrote about the possibility of an October “surprise.” I pointed out that such an event is... READ MORE
THE NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) LEADS MARKET LOWER... Stock indexes are all under selling pressure again this morning. As has been the case of late, the technology-dominated Nasdaq market has been leading the rest of the market lower. Chart 1 shows the Invesco Nasdaq 100 QQQ Trust falling to the... READ MORE
* The US market viewed from abroad * Resource based sectors in general are under-performing * Defensive sectors are generally improving * Ratio between a late and early performing sector is at a critical juncture Back in August I wrote an article pointing out that we might be in the early stages of... READ MORE
A LOT OF MOVING AVERAGE LINES ARE BEING BROKEN... Stocks continue the retreat that began after bond yields reached multiyear highs at midweek. Bond yields are hitting new highs again today. As was the case yesterday, consumer cyclicals and technology are the two worst sector performers. Chart 1 shows the... READ MORE
* Conditions that feed a crash * Rising rates * Emerging markets could be the triggering mechanism * Market breadth not so hot * Is the e-commerce bubble bursting? Conditions that feed a crash October started off as just a continuation of September’s dull price activity. However, knowing that the month of October... READ MORE
RETAILERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... Tuesday's message showed retail stocks under selling pressure. That selling is continuing today. Chart 1 shows the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT) nearing a test of its July/August lows and maybe even its 200-day moving average (red line). The Tuesday message... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD ACHIEVES MAJOR BULLISH BREAKOUT... Treasury yields have finally achieved the upside breakout that many of us have been warning about. And it's doing it in pretty decisive fashion. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield surging above its May... READ MORE
RETAIL SPDR TUMBLES TO TWO-MONTH LOW... Retail stocks are having a bad chart day. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT) falling to the lowest level in two months, and trading below its 50-day average (blue line) by the widest margin... READ MORE
* Dollar Index experiences a false downside breakout * Euro encounters a false upside breakout * Yen completes a bearish multi-year continuation formation * Swiss franc completes a broadening wedge Back in mid-September, I wrote an article where I pointed out that the Dollar was on a knife edge. This view was... READ MORE
The Market Roundup Video For October is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE HAS BECOME NEW SECTOR LEADER... The three strongest sector leaders since the start of this year have been consumer cyclicals, technology, and healthcare (in that order). But those numbers don't reflect the fact that healthcare has become the strongest market sector over the past three and six... READ MORE
* The connection between lumber and housing starts * What the homebuilding ETF’s are saying Nonfarm payrolls are an economic series that is widely followed by the investment community. However, it’s a coincident indicator, meaning it tells you what is going on now, not what might happen in the future.... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IS AT A CRUCIAL CHART POINT ... Treasury bond yields are going through an important test of overhead resistance. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield ($TNX) challenging its May 2018 intra high near 3.11%. After pulling back from its May high, the TNX entered... READ MORE
INVESCO DB ENERGY FUND REACHES THREE-YEAR HIGH ... This past weekend's meeting between OPEC and Russia ended with no agreement to boost output to counter rising oil price. As a result, oil and other energy prices are rising sharply today. Chart 1 shows the Invesco DB Energy Fund... READ MORE
MATERIALS AND FINANCIALS LEAD, TECHS AND UTES LAG: The Dow and S&P 500 hit new records this past week, while the Nasdaq lost some ground. A rebound in chemicals and copper stocks made materials the weekly leader. Financials benefited from a jump in bond yields. That also explains... READ MORE
UNITED STATES OIL FUND NEARS THREE-YEAR HIGH... The price of crude oil has reached a critical chart juncture. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund (USO) in the process of testing its early July peak. A close through that barrier would put the USO at the highest level... READ MORE