SHORT-TERM BOUNCE HAS RUN ITS COURSE ... This week's modest rebound in stocks has been unimpressive and appears to have run its course. Lack of upside volume and weak breadth also show that investors have stayed on the sidelines, or have sold into this week's rebound.... READ MORE
S&P 500 MAY BE FORMING SHORT-TERM BOTTOM... My message from last Friday suggested that the S&P 500 was likely to drop below its October low, which could lead to a retest of its early 2018 lows (more on that last point shortly). Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
* Pinocchio Lies * Oversold Sentiment Indicators * Oversold Oscillators Pinocchio Lies Monday’s action was what I call “scary bullish.” First, we saw prices sell-off sharply, only to then rebound as if nothing had happened. Well, something did happen - the formation of a bullish Pinocchio bar on several Indexes. Chart 1... READ MORE
LARGER THAN EXPECTED OPEC CUTS BOOST CRUDE OIL ... OPEC and Russia finally agreed to a larger-than-expected production cut of 1.2 million barrels a day of crude oil which is lifting the price of that commodity today. It remains to be seen, however, if that's enough... READ MORE
WHY WE LOOK AT CHARTS ... I've written several messages since the start of October about why the sharp stock market drop that month was most likely the start of a major topping process. Previous messages used Elliott Waves, the unusually old age of the current bull market (and... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD PLUNGES BELOW ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE ... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield plunging to the lowest level in three months and falling below its 200-day average for the first time in more than a year. That means that investors are putting a lot... READ MORE
* The Secular Bear Market in Yields * Near-Term Indications of a Decline in Bond Yields * Watch That Stock/Bond Relationship for an Important Signal The Secular Bear Market in Yields Please note that the comments in this article relate to bond yields with maturities of 3-years or longer. They... READ MORE
The Market Roundup Video For December is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM TREND IS IMPROVING ... There are lots of ways to determine the trend of the stock market. The placement of moving average lines is one of them. Bollinger bands (invented by John Bollinger) are another. Chart 1 applies both techniques to a daily chart of the S&P... READ MORE
DOW REGAINS 200-DAY AVERAGE ... U.S. stock indexes reacted positively to today's noon speech by Fed chief Jerome Powell that was perceived to be more dovish than comments made at the start of October. Stocks all over the world are rallying as a result. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
* Housing Starts are Rolling Over * The Trend of Margin Debt is Bearish The NYSE Margin and the housing sector do not have much in common beyond the fact that both gave sell signals in October. Neither development bodes well for the recovery of the stock market. Let’s take a... READ MORE
S&P 500 REBOUNDS OFF LATE OCTOBER LOW... Stocks are off to a good start to the post Thanksgiving trading week. And they have at least three things working in their favor. One is the proximity to their late October low. The other is a short-term oversold condition.... READ MORE
S&P 500 IS RETESTING ITS OCTOBER LOW ... Since the nearly nearly three year uptrend that started in stocks in early 2016 appears to have peaked, an eventual retest of early 2018 lows appears likely. That would mean an eventual retest of February/April lows on the S&... READ MORE
* Indexes on the Brink * Confidence Relationships Starting to Break Down * Watch the Stock/Bond Ratio Indexes on the Brink More than once a week, I make sure to check several ratios that tell me whether investors and traders are getting more or less confident. These relationships, which we will get... READ MORE
CORRECTION: ... My message from last Wednesday showed negative readings on weekly and monthly stock charts, and referred back to an earlier message on that same topic. However, I incorrectly gave a date of May 13. The correct date of that earlier article is October 13, 2018. I also mentioned that... READ MORE
DESPITE LATE REBOUND, STOCK INDEXES LOSE GROUND... Despite a rebound on Thursday and Friday, all major U.S. stock indexes lost ground this week. But very little changed on their respective chart patterns. Chart 1 shows an upside reversal on Thursday keeping the Dow Industrials above its 200-day average.... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM STOCK TREND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ... Today's higher open is giving way to more afternoon selling. We've seen that same pattern over the past week as stock prices have started to slide again. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500... READ MORE
* Commodities in General Remain in a Bear Market * Oil is Also in a Primary Bear Market * The Chart That Says That Some Kind of Bottom is at Hand I last wrote about oil back in early August, in an article entitled More Evidence Of A Commodity Bear Market. Back then,... READ MORE
TECHNOLOGY SPDR FALLS FURTHER BELOW ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE ... Technology stocks continue to lead the stock market lower today. The Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) fell back below its 200-day average on Friday, and is falling further below it today (Chart 1). To get an idea of how much the... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL ENTERS BEAR MARKET... Commodities as a group have been under a lot of selling pressure for several months. But the weakest part of that group over the past month has been energy. Chart 1 shows the price of WTIC Light Crude Oil (through yesterday) falling to the lowest... READ MORE
* Indexes Reach Resistance and Retrace 61.8% of the Decline * Hourly Charts Offer the First Domino * Short-Term Breadth is Overstretched * NASDAQ Sports a Series of Declining Peaks and Troughs Indexes Reach Resistance and Retrace 61.8% of the Decline The market has been on a tear for the last... READ MORE
THE DOW LEADS STOCK UPTURN ... Major stock indexes are building on their November gains on the day after the midterm elections. The Dow is leading on the upside. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials already trading above chart resistance at 25,800 and trying to clear its 50-day average.... READ MORE
* The Long-Term Picture * Price Action Characteristics are Bearish * Gold Share Breadth is Negative * The Now or Never Chart The Long-Term Picture Gold was in a secular bull market between 2001 and 2011. It then sold off into 2014 and has been essentially range bound ever since. Chart 1... READ MORE
The Market Roundup Video For November is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
APPLE FALLS ON GOOD NEWS ... It's usually not a good sign when the market's biggest stock takes a big hit. That's especially true when it happens the day after the company reported its fourth consecutive quarter of record revenue and profits. But that'... READ MORE
* Key moving averages violated in October * The world peaked in January * What happened to sectors and breadth? * February versus October conclusion * Those pesky bonds Key Moving Averages Violated in October So far, 2018 has seen two sharp shakeouts in the market, specifically the ten-day special in early February and... READ MORE
SMALL AND MIDCAP STOCKS INDEXES BOUNCE OFF FEBRUARY LOWS... A lot of technical signs point to a short-term bottom in place for stocks. That suggests that major stock indexes will try to regain some of their October losses. The big question is how much of those losses. Before getting... READ MORE
* A few observations about the secular trend * Short-term technical position * Junk bonds peak out * Credit spreads argue for lower government yields A Few Observations About the Secular Trend The 5-year yield, shown in Chart 1, has formed and broken out from a major base. It touched a low... READ MORE
S&P 500 HEADED FOR A RETEST OF EARLY 2018 LOWS ... I keep hearing on CNBC that stocks are down sharply but "off their lows". They never seem to mention that they're even further "off their highs". After losing nearly 4% over the... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCKS ARE LEADING THE U.S. LOWER... U.S. stocks are under pressure for a lot of reasons that have been described in previous messages. There's been the rotation over the last month out of economically-sensitive stock groups like cyclicals, industrials, energy, materials, and technology into... READ MORE
S&P 500 CONTINUES TO TEST MAJOR SUPPORT LINES... After a rebound attempt on Tuesday, stocks ended the week pretty much where they started, but on the defensive. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 Large Cap Index closing Friday right on its 200-... READ MORE
THE DOW RETESTS 200-DAY LINE... My last two messages spelled out a lot of technical reasons that are bearish for the stock market, and increase the odds that the nine-year bull run is ending. Besides the heavy selling that's taken place during October, my weekend message... READ MORE
* Internet bubble * Credit spreads * Rising interest rates * Contagion from abroad On Wednesday, I joined Tom and Erin on MarketWatchers LIVE and enjoyed a spirited discussion on what signs might foreshadow an extension to last week’s decline, or even signal a bear market. The four areas I cited were the... READ MORE
DEFENSIVE HEALTHCARE SECTOR CONTINUES TO LEAD ... Healthcare has emerged as the market's strongest sector. Not only has healthcare been the market's strongest sector over the last month, the last three months, and the last six months. It's now the top performer for the year.... READ MORE
S&P 500 HOLDS 200-DAY AVERAGE ... A stock rebound on Friday prevented a more serious market breakdown. That's because it allowed the S&P 500, and some other market gauges, to hold at or above their 200-day moving averages (Chart 1). That included the... READ MORE
GROWTH AND VALUE STOCKS ARE BOTH FALLING... One of the explanations for this week's big selloff is that the upside breakout in bond yields is hurting growth stocks. That's been especially true of consumer discretionary and technology stocks which suffered the biggest losses this month. Chart... READ MORE
* The big global picture * US equities are violating key trend lines * Financials experience false upside breakout * Energy triggers a false positive * Bubble-prone e-commerce on the verge of being pricked! Last week, I wrote about the possibility of an October “surprise.” I pointed out that such an event is... READ MORE
THE NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) LEADS MARKET LOWER... Stock indexes are all under selling pressure again this morning. As has been the case of late, the technology-dominated Nasdaq market has been leading the rest of the market lower. Chart 1 shows the Invesco Nasdaq 100 QQQ Trust falling to the... READ MORE
* The US market viewed from abroad * Resource based sectors in general are under-performing * Defensive sectors are generally improving * Ratio between a late and early performing sector is at a critical juncture Back in August I wrote an article pointing out that we might be in the early stages of... READ MORE
A LOT OF MOVING AVERAGE LINES ARE BEING BROKEN... Stocks continue the retreat that began after bond yields reached multiyear highs at midweek. Bond yields are hitting new highs again today. As was the case yesterday, consumer cyclicals and technology are the two worst sector performers. Chart 1 shows the... READ MORE