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A TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD MOVE ABOVE 2.62% WOULD PAVE THE WAY FOR 3% YIELD LATER THIS YEAR -- THAT WOULD PUT THE THIRTY-FIVE YEAR DECLINE IN BOND YIELDS IN JEOPARDY -- GERMAN YIELD NEARS T...

A TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD MOVE ABOVE 2.62% WOULD PAVE THE WAY FOR 3% YIELD LATER THIS YEAR -- THAT WOULD PUT THE THIRTY-FIVE YEAR DECLINE IN BOND YIELDS IN JEOPARDY -- GERMAN YIELD NEARS TWO-YEAR HIGH ON HAWKISH ECB HINT

A LONGER TERM LOOK AT RISING BOND YIELDS... Chart evidence of a major upturn in Treasury bond yields continues to grow. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield ($TNX) nearing a test of its late 2016 intra-day peak at 2.62%. A decisive move above that...   READ MORE 

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Bond Yields Are Breaking Out All Over

Bond Yields Are Breaking Out All Over

* Basic changes in long-term momentum * The five-year maturity is signalling an end to the secular decline in yields * Twenty-year yield showing signs of basing * Ten-year attacking mega down trend line * From a short-term aspect bond prices look vulnerable * Utilities about to crash? Basic changes in long-term momentum Since the beginning...   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD JUMPS TO NINE MONTH HIGH -- BANK OF JAPAN CUTS BOND PURCHASES -- THAT'S BOOSTING BANKS WHILE HURTING UTILITIES -- A DRAMATIC ROTATION OUT OF UTILITIES INTO TRANSPOR...

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD JUMPS TO NINE MONTH HIGH -- BANK OF JAPAN CUTS BOND PURCHASES -- THAT'S BOOSTING BANKS WHILE HURTING UTILITIES -- A DRAMATIC ROTATION OUT OF UTILITIES INTO TRANSPORTS POINTS TO A STRONGER ECONOMY AND HIGHER RATES

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MARCH ... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) climbing 5 basis points to 2.53% which is the highest level since last March. That leaves little doubt that the trend for Treasury yields is upward. Part of the reason for today'...   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCKS START YEAR WITH A BANG WITH STOCKS AROUND THE WORLD HITTING NEW RECORDS -- BUT THE S&P 500 INDEX IS THE MOST OVERBOUGHT IN TWENTY YEARS -- AND IS WELL INTO A FIVE-WAVE ADVANC...

GLOBAL STOCKS START YEAR WITH A BANG WITH STOCKS AROUND THE WORLD HITTING NEW RECORDS -- BUT THE S&P 500 INDEX IS THE MOST OVERBOUGHT IN TWENTY YEARS -- AND IS WELL INTO A FIVE-WAVE ADVANCE -- THE CRB INDEX MAY BE NEARING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT

S&P 500 IS MOST OVERBOUGHT SINCE LATE 1990S... Global stock markets started off the new year with a bang. U.S. stock indexes exploded to record highs for the best start in years. Foreign stock benchmarks did the same, including the FTSE All World Stock Index which also...   READ MORE 

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Martin Pring's Market Roundup Video January 2018-01-03

This months Market Roundup live video has a lot of information on the bond market. The six-stage cycle is currently in Stage 3. This large overview shows some of the major macro trends that are breaking right now. Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2018-01-03 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good...   READ MORE 

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Dollar Index Is Just Above Make Or Break Support--- Will It Bounce Or Break?

Dollar Index Is Just Above Make Or Break Support--- Will It Bounce Or Break?

Dollar Index is in a confirmed bear market * Dollar sympathy indicators are close to a major breakdown * Canadian and Aussie dollars are driven by commodity prices * Emerging Market ETF benefiting from a weaker dollar Dollar Index is in a confirmed bear market As 2018 begins to unfold the Dollar Index...   READ MORE 

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CRUDE OIL HITS ANOTHER HIGH AND NEARS TEST OF $62 -- UNITED STATES OIL FUND NEARS TEST OF SPRING 2016 HIGH -- ENERGY SPDR MAY ON THE VERGE OF A BULLISH BREAKOUT -- ENERGY/SPX RELATIVE STRE...

CRUDE OIL HITS ANOTHER HIGH AND NEARS TEST OF $62 -- UNITED STATES OIL FUND NEARS TEST OF SPRING 2016 HIGH -- ENERGY SPDR MAY ON THE VERGE OF A BULLISH BREAKOUT -- ENERGY/SPX RELATIVE STRENGTH RATIO REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL IN EIGHT MONTHS

UNITED STATES OIL FUND NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT ... Energy prices continue to rise. WTIC Light Crude Oil is trading over $61 today for the first time more than two years and is nearing a test of its spring 2015 high just over $62. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund...   READ MORE 

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COMMODITIES ARE AT LOWEST LEVEL RELATIVE TO STOCKS IN HISTORY -- COMMODITIES HAVE A LOT OF CATCHING UP TO DO -- THAT PROCESS MAY BE BEGINNING -- CRB INDEX MAY BE NEARING UPSIDE BREAKOUT --...

COMMODITIES ARE AT LOWEST LEVEL RELATIVE TO STOCKS IN HISTORY -- COMMODITIES HAVE A LOT OF CATCHING UP TO DO -- THAT PROCESS MAY BE BEGINNING -- CRB INDEX MAY BE NEARING UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRODUCERS ETF REACHES THREE-YEAR HIGH

COMMODITIES ARE HISTORICALLY VERY CHEAP VERSUS STOCKS... I suggested yesterday that commodity prices (and stocks tied to them) usually do better in the later stages of a business cycle as inflation pressures start to build. We may be entering that stage. One of the reasons why investors may be turning...   READ MORE 

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Four Markets To Watch In 2018 For A Potentially Important Breakout

Four Markets To Watch In 2018 For A Potentially Important Breakout

* 10-year bond yields could be in the process of a secular reversal. * What odds is the S. Korean ETF placing on the breakout of war? * China has gone uncharacteristically quiet. Is this the quiet before the storm? * CRB Composite just below mega resistance As we approach 2018 I thought it...   READ MORE 

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WEAKER DOLLAR PUSHES COMMODITY PRICES HIGHER -- GOLD AND ITS MINERS CLIMB -- RISING ALUMINUM AND COPPER PRICES PUSH THEIR SHARES TO NEW HIGHS -- SOUTHERN COPPER HITS ALL-TIME HIGH -- RISIN...

WEAKER DOLLAR PUSHES COMMODITY PRICES HIGHER -- GOLD AND ITS MINERS CLIMB -- RISING ALUMINUM AND COPPER PRICES PUSH THEIR SHARES TO NEW HIGHS -- SOUTHERN COPPER HITS ALL-TIME HIGH -- RISING COMMODITIES MAY GIVE A BOOST TO CANADIAN STOCKS

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX WEAKENS ... The U.S. dollar continues to weaken. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares US Dollar Index (UUP) falling today to the lowest level in a month. The dollar is down against all foreign developed currencies except the yen which is marginally lower. The biggest influence on...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS HAVE ANOTHER UP WEEK BUT END QUIETLY -- - SURGE IN BOND YIELDS WAS WEEK'S BIGGEST STORY -- INFLATION-SENSITIVE STOCKS SURGED WHILE RATE-SENSITIVE STOCKS TUMBLED -- THAT SUGGESTS THE...

STOCKS HAVE ANOTHER UP WEEK BUT END QUIETLY -- - SURGE IN BOND YIELDS WAS WEEK'S BIGGEST STORY -- INFLATION-SENSITIVE STOCKS SURGED WHILE RATE-SENSITIVE STOCKS TUMBLED -- THAT SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME HEDGING AGAINST FUTURE INFLATION GOING ON

SANTA CLAUS RALLY STILL LIES AHEAD... The stock market experienced the second slowest trading day of the year on Friday as traders headed home for Christmas. All major stock indexes, however, hit new records during the week. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index had the week's biggest percentage...   READ MORE 

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The Yield Curve Is Not Forecasting A Recession Right Now

The Yield Curve Is Not Forecasting A Recession Right Now

* What message is the yield curve giving? * Secular reversal in short-term bond yields is being signalled * Energy sector breaks to the upside * Energy strength may breathe life into the CRB Composite What message is the yield curve giving? Despite what you may be reading, the yield curve is not forecasting...   READ MORE 

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DOW JONES HOME CONSTRUCTION INDEX REACHES ELEVEN YEAR HIGH BUT STILL LOOKS CHEAP ON A RELATIVE STRENGTH BASIS -- US HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES ARE HAVING A STRONGER YEAR THAN THE S&P HOMEBU...

DOW JONES HOME CONSTRUCTION INDEX REACHES ELEVEN YEAR HIGH BUT STILL LOOKS CHEAP ON A RELATIVE STRENGTH BASIS -- US HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES ARE HAVING A STRONGER YEAR THAN THE S&P HOMEBUILDER SPDR -- ENERGY SPDR HITS ELEVEN MONTH HIGH

DOW JONES HOME CONSTRUCTION INDEX REACHES ELEVEN-YEAR HIGH... Recent reports of strong home sales and home construction have boosted stocks tied to the housing sector. The low inventory of existing homes available for sale argues for even more homebuilding in the year ahead. All of which bodes well for the...   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLIMBS TO NINE-MONTH HIGH -- LONG-TERM TREASURY BOND CHART LOOKS BEARISH -- RELATIVE STRENGTH ANALYSIS SHOWS RISING RATES HURTING UTILITIES AND REITS -- BUT BOOSTIN...

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLIMBS TO NINE-MONTH HIGH -- LONG-TERM TREASURY BOND CHART LOOKS BEARISH -- RELATIVE STRENGTH ANALYSIS SHOWS RISING RATES HURTING UTILITIES AND REITS -- BUT BOOSTING FINANCIALS

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS NINE-MONTH HIGH ... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield climbing another 3 basis points today to the highest level since March (2.49%). That's most likely tied to the impending passage of the tax bill before Congress with expectations for faster economic growth and...   READ MORE 

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10-YEAR BOND YIELD SURGES TO TWO-MONTH HIGH AND MAY BE ON VERGE OF UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- FOREIGN YIELDS ARE ALSO JUMPING -- THAT'S PUSHING BOND PRICES SHARPLY LOWER -- UTILITIES AND REITS ARE...

10-YEAR BOND YIELD SURGES TO TWO-MONTH HIGH AND MAY BE ON VERGE OF UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- FOREIGN YIELDS ARE ALSO JUMPING -- THAT'S PUSHING BOND PRICES SHARPLY LOWER -- UTILITIES AND REITS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SERIOUS UNDERPERMANCE

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SURGES... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield ($TNX) jumping 7 basis points today to the highest level in two months in one of the biggest daily gains this year. That puts the yield within striking distance of its late October intra-day peak...   READ MORE 

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STEEL STOCKS LEAD MATERIALS TO NEW RECORD -- STEEL ETF NEARS FIVE-YEAR HIGH -- STEEL LEADERS INCLUDE NUCOR AND STEEL DYNAMICS -- S&P METALS AND MINING SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- STO...

STEEL STOCKS LEAD MATERIALS TO NEW RECORD -- STEEL ETF NEARS FIVE-YEAR HIGH -- STEEL LEADERS INCLUDE NUCOR AND STEEL DYNAMICS -- S&P METALS AND MINING SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- STOCKS HAVE ANOTHER STRONG DAY

MATERIALS SPDR HITS NEW RECORD ... In a strong market day, materials led stocks higher. Chart 1 shows the Materials Select SPDR (XLB) breaking out to a new record. The XLB has been finding support along its 50-day average. The XLB/SPX ratio (top of chart) has been lagging behing the...   READ MORE 

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TECHNOLOGY IS WEEK'S STRONGEST SECTOR AND HITS NEW HIGH -- SO DOES THE NASDAQ 100 -- MICROSOFT WAS ONE OF THE BIG REASONS WHY -- RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES BOUNCE OFF 50-DAY AVERAGE -- SMALL CAP...

TECHNOLOGY IS WEEK'S STRONGEST SECTOR AND HITS NEW HIGH -- SO DOES THE NASDAQ 100 -- MICROSOFT WAS ONE OF THE BIG REASONS WHY -- RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES BOUNCE OFF 50-DAY AVERAGE -- SMALL CAPS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM TAX CUT

TECHNOLOGY HAS A STRONG WEEK... After leading the market higher for most of the year, technology stocks saw some profit-taking near the end of November, and have lagged behind the rest of the market since then. This week, however, technology was the market's strongest sector. And that was...   READ MORE 

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What's The Market Going To Do When The Tax Bill Is Passed?

What's The Market Going To Do When The Tax Bill Is Passed?

* General thoughts on the discounting process * Short-term indicators poised for, but not yet signalling a decline General thoughts on the discounting process There is an old adage on Wall Street to the effect that traders should, in the case of war, sell the rumor and buy on the sound of...   READ MORE 

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DISNEY AND FOX SURGE TOGETHER -- TIFFANY BREAKS OUT WHILE NIKE CONTINUES TO RUN -- DELTA AND SOUTHWEST CLIMB TO NEW HIGHS

DISNEY AND FOX SURGE TOGETHER -- TIFFANY BREAKS OUT WHILE NIKE CONTINUES TO RUN -- DELTA AND SOUTHWEST CLIMB TO NEW HIGHS

DISNEY AND FOX SURGE ... The announcement that Walt Disney was buying $66 billion worth of assets from Fox sent both stocks surging today. And they helped make cyclical stocks the day's biggest gainer. Chart 1 shows Disney (DIS) surging more than 3% to the highest closing level since...   READ MORE 

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RISING BOND YIELDS BOOSTS FINANCIAL STOCKS -- FINANCIAL SPDR LEADS MARKET HIGHER -- GOLDMAN SACHS SETS A NEW RECORD -- VERIZON SURGE LEADS TELECOM HIGHER -- AT&T CLEARS ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE...

RISING BOND YIELDS BOOSTS FINANCIAL STOCKS -- FINANCIAL SPDR LEADS MARKET HIGHER -- GOLDMAN SACHS SETS A NEW RECORD -- VERIZON SURGE LEADS TELECOM HIGHER -- AT&T CLEARS ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- EDISON INTL WEIGHS ON UTILITY SECTOR

BOND YIELD IS CLIMBING... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield climbing 2 basis points to 2.40%. The 5-year Treasury Yield (not shown) has climbed to the highest level in six years. Today's strong PPI report may have something to do with that....   READ MORE 

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INDUSTRIAL SECTOR CONTINUES TO SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP -- DOW JONES HEAVY CONSTRUCTION INDEX MAY BE NEARING UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- QUANTA SERVICES AND JACOBS ENGINEERING HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT --...

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR CONTINUES TO SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP -- DOW JONES HEAVY CONSTRUCTION INDEX MAY BE NEARING UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- QUANTA SERVICES AND JACOBS ENGINEERING HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT -- AMONG RETAILERS, BEST BUY HITS A NEW RECORD

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR CONTINUES NEW LEADERSHIP ROLE... Industrial stocks assumed a new market leadership role during November and remained in that role again this week. Chart 1 shows the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) gaining 1.4% during the week which made it second only to the financial sector's gain...   READ MORE 

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Guess What? Short Term Indicators Are Saying That Bitcoin Is Getting A Bit Frothy!

Guess What? Short Term Indicators Are Saying That Bitcoin Is Getting A Bit Frothy!

* 18-month ROC is literally off the charts * Bitcoin and short- term momentum * Comparing Bitcoin to the Bitcoin Trust * Conclusion * Links to videos on Bitcoin 18-month ROC is literally off the charts There are two Bitcoin directly related vehicles that are available on the StockCharts platform. These are the NYSE Bitcoin...   READ MORE 

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December 2017 Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2017-12-06

This months Market Roundup highlights the three main assets of bonds, commodities and stocks. Rotations between these asset classes can help find major secular moves. This month shows multiple trends changing. Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2017-12-06 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring...   READ MORE 

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Precious Metals And Commodities Starting To Break Down

Precious Metals And Commodities Starting To Break Down

* Gold leads commodities * Gold, gold shares and silver complete head and shoulder patterns * Two confidence ratios are forecasting lower gold prices * Commodities headed lower Gold leads commodities Chart 1 compares the price of gold to commodities in the form of the CRB Composite. The green shaded areas represent rally periods...   READ MORE 

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EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES FALL TO TWO-MONTH LOW -- MOST OF THE SELLING IS COMING FROM ASIA, AND TAIWAN IN PARTICULAR -- SELLING IN TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR IS THE MAIN REASON WHY -- SEMICONDUCT...

EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES FALL TO TWO-MONTH LOW -- MOST OF THE SELLING IS COMING FROM ASIA, AND TAIWAN IN PARTICULAR -- SELLING IN TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR IS THE MAIN REASON WHY -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETFS HAVE SLIPPED BELOW THEIR 50-DAY LINES

EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES FALL TO TWO-MONTH LOW... The recent rotation out of technology stocks may be taking a toll on emerging markets which are heavily exposed to that sector. Chart 1 shows Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) falling below its 50-day average to the lowest level in two months. And it&...   READ MORE 

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MONEY CONTINUES TO ROTATE OUT OF TECHNOLOGY AND INTO BANKS, RETAILERS, ENERGY AND TRANSPORTS -- FAANG STOCKS AND SEMICONDUCTORS WEIGH ON TECHNOLOGY SECTOR -- S&P 500 VALUE ISHARES ARE OUTP...

MONEY CONTINUES TO ROTATE OUT OF TECHNOLOGY AND INTO BANKS, RETAILERS, ENERGY AND TRANSPORTS -- FAANG STOCKS AND SEMICONDUCTORS WEIGH ON TECHNOLOGY SECTOR -- S&P 500 VALUE ISHARES ARE OUTPERFORMING GROWTH ISHARES

CHEAPER STOCKS ARE GAINING ... The rotation into cheaper undervalued stocks that started last week is continuing today on the back of the weekend passage of the tax reform package. The relative strength lines in Chart 1 show the past week's leaders to be banks (blue line), retailers (red...   READ MORE 

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ENERGY SHARES ARE BOUNCING ON OPTIMISM OVER OPEC AGREEMENT -- EXXON MOBIL MAY BE ON THE VERGE OF A BULLISH BREAKOUT -- CHEVRON IS NEARING A NEW RECORD HIGH -- ENERGY SHARES MAY START TO BE...

ENERGY SHARES ARE BOUNCING ON OPTIMISM OVER OPEC AGREEMENT -- EXXON MOBIL MAY BE ON THE VERGE OF A BULLISH BREAKOUT -- CHEVRON IS NEARING A NEW RECORD HIGH -- ENERGY SHARES MAY START TO BENEFIT FROM RECENT BUYING OF CHEAP STOCK GROUPS

ENERGY SHARES REBOUND ... Energy shares are finally showing some bounce. The daily bars in Chart 1 shows the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) climbing above its 50-day average today. The XLE is bouncing off chart support along its late October low and its 200-day moving average. Those are logical chart points...   READ MORE 

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RETAIL SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- TODAY'S RETAIL LEADERS INCLUDE NORDSTROM, KOHLS, AND TJX -- TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE RISES SHARPLY -- AIRLINES AND DELIVERY SERVICE STOCKS ARE HAVING...

RETAIL SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- TODAY'S RETAIL LEADERS INCLUDE NORDSTROM, KOHLS, AND TJX -- TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE RISES SHARPLY -- AIRLINES AND DELIVERY SERVICE STOCKS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY

S&P RETAIL SPDR BREAKS OUT TO THE UPSIDE... My Monday message showed the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT) attempting an upside breakout above its October high. Chart 1 shows the XRT accomplishing that in pretty decisive fashion over the last two days. In fact, retailers have been...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIAL SPDR IS FINDING SUPPORT AT 50-DAY AVERAGE -- S&P BANK SPDR IS ALSO TRADING ABOVE ITS 50-DAY LINE -- BANK LEADERS INCLUDE J.P. MORGAN CHASE, REGIONS FINANCIAL, AND ZIONS BANCORP -...

FINANCIAL SPDR IS FINDING SUPPORT AT 50-DAY AVERAGE -- S&P BANK SPDR IS ALSO TRADING ABOVE ITS 50-DAY LINE -- BANK LEADERS INCLUDE J.P. MORGAN CHASE, REGIONS FINANCIAL, AND ZIONS BANCORP -- INSURERS ARE ALSO HAVING A STRONG DAY

FINANCIAL SPDR CONTINUES TO BOUNCE OFF 50-DAY AVERAGE... My message from last Wednesday showed the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) starting to bounce off its 50-day moving average. Chart 1 shows that the XLF continues to find support at its 50-day line. That's an encouraging sign. The gray area...   READ MORE 

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Is The Oil Price Topping?

Is The Oil Price Topping?

* Oil experiences a major upside breakout * Overstretched energy markets on a short-term basis * Where oil goes commodities in general often follow I recently came across a commitment of traders hedgers chart that shows a record low short position. Now it’s true that since the 1990’s  there has been...   READ MORE 

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RETAIL SPDR CHALLENGES OCTOBER HIGH -- ITS LONGER RANGE CHART SUGGESTS BASING ACTIVITY -- APPAREL RETAILERS HAVE TURNED UP -- LEADERS INCLUDE BURLINGTON STORES, GAP, AND URBAN OUTFITTERS -...

RETAIL SPDR CHALLENGES OCTOBER HIGH -- ITS LONGER RANGE CHART SUGGESTS BASING ACTIVITY -- APPAREL RETAILERS HAVE TURNED UP -- LEADERS INCLUDE BURLINGTON STORES, GAP, AND URBAN OUTFITTERS -- INVESTORS ARE BUYING TIPS AS A HEDGE AGAINST RISING INFLATION

S&P 500 RETAIL SPDR ATTEMPTS UPSIDE BREAKOUT ... Retail stocks may have a strong holiday season after all. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 Retail SPDR (XRT) trying to clear its early October high near 42. That would put it at the highest level in six months....   READ MORE 

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SEVERAL UNUSUAL FACTORS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE FLATTENING YIELD CURVE -- LOW INFLATION IS HELPING KEEP BOND YIELDS DOWN -- SO IS THE FACT THAT FOREIGN BOND YIELDS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN TREA...

SEVERAL UNUSUAL FACTORS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE FLATTENING YIELD CURVE -- LOW INFLATION IS HELPING KEEP BOND YIELDS DOWN -- SO IS THE FACT THAT FOREIGN BOND YIELDS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN TREASURIES

YIELD CURVE FALLS TO LOWEST LEVEL IN A DECADE ... I've been reading a lot about the yield curve falling to the lowest level since 2007 and the potential warning that carries. The green bars in Chart 1 plot the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields (the yield...   READ MORE 

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DOLLAR INDEX IS WEAKENING -- THAT MAY BE HELPING COMMODITIES -- THE BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS BOUNCING OFF ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- CRUDE OIL TOUCHES TWO-YEAR HIGH -- ENERGY SPDR IS BOUNCI...

DOLLAR INDEX IS WEAKENING -- THAT MAY BE HELPING COMMODITIES -- THE BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS BOUNCING OFF ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- CRUDE OIL TOUCHES TWO-YEAR HIGH -- ENERGY SPDR IS BOUNCING OFF CHART SUPPORT -- SO ARE TRANSPORTS AND FINANCIALS

DOLLAR INDEX THREATENS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE... The U.S. dollar is in retreat today against most major foreign currencies. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Dollar Index Fund (UUP) threatening to drop below its 50-day moving average (blue line). That would be the first time the UUP has slipped below that...   READ MORE 

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Small Caps Break To The Upside Big Time

Small Caps Break To The Upside Big Time

* Small Caps breaking out * Gold and Silver may be close to a resolution to their recent rangebound activity * Euro in a real dilemma but with a bullish bias In sorting through a number of charts I recently came across some potential price patterns that are developing in several key markets....   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCKS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY -- HIGH YIELD BOND ETF IS BOUNCING SHARPLY OFF CHART SUPPORT -- MOST OF ITS RECENT SELLING HAS BEEN IN THE TELECOM SECTOR -- INDIVIDUAL TELECOM STOCKS...

GLOBAL STOCKS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY -- HIGH YIELD BOND ETF IS BOUNCING SHARPLY OFF CHART SUPPORT -- MOST OF ITS RECENT SELLING HAS BEEN IN THE TELECOM SECTOR -- INDIVIDUAL TELECOM STOCKS ARE REBOUNDING FROM OVERSOLD CONDITIONS

HIGH YIELD BOND ISHARES BOUNCE SHARPLY OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE... The recent selloff in high yield junk bonds has attracted a lot of attention in the financial media. My Tuesday message showed the iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond iShares (HYG) headed down for a test of chart support at its August...   READ MORE 

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Commodities: Are They About To Experience A Pause?

Commodities: Are They About To Experience A Pause?

The long-term picture * Is the stock market smarter than the commodity market? * Commodity indexes short-term overbought The long-term picture Since mid-summer, commodity prices reflected in broadly based indexes such as the CRB ($CRB), Bloomberg Commodity ETN (DJP) or the DB Commodity ETF (DBC) have been on a tear. However, short-term...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS TAKE ON A MORE DEFENSIVE TONE AS STAPLES AND UTILITIES TAKE THE LEAD -- UTILITIES HIT NEW RECORD -- JUNK BOND SELLOFF IS ANOTHER CAUTION SIGNAL -- SELLOFF IN DOLLAR MAY BE PUSHING S...

STOCKS TAKE ON A MORE DEFENSIVE TONE AS STAPLES AND UTILITIES TAKE THE LEAD -- UTILITIES HIT NEW RECORD -- JUNK BOND SELLOFF IS ANOTHER CAUTION SIGNAL -- SELLOFF IN DOLLAR MAY BE PUSHING SOME DEFENSIVE MONEY BACK INTO GOLD

UTILITIES HIT NEW RECORD ... With the rest of the market on the defensive, utility stocks are having another strong day. Chart 1 shows the Utilities Sector SPDR (XLU) climbing to another record high today. Utilities are the day's strongest sector (along with consumer staples), while all other sectors...   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD GAPS HIGHER -- 20-YEAR TREASURY BOND ISHARES GAP DOWN AND LOOK TOPPY -- THEIR LONGER-RANGE CHART ALSO SUGGESTS A MAJOR BOND TOP IN THE MAKING -- FINANCIAL SPDR AND...

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD GAPS HIGHER -- 20-YEAR TREASURY BOND ISHARES GAP DOWN AND LOOK TOPPY -- THEIR LONGER-RANGE CHART ALSO SUGGESTS A MAJOR BOND TOP IN THE MAKING -- FINANCIAL SPDR AND SMALL CAPS ARE TESTING SUPPORT AT THEIR 50-DAY AVERAGES

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE... My Wednesday message showed the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) testing its 200-day moving average. Chart 1 shows the TNX gapping 7 basis points higher today after finding support at its 200-day line. I also mentioned on Wednesday that the 10-Year Treasury yield was...   READ MORE 

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Growth Is Breaking Out Against Value

Growth Is Breaking Out Against Value

Growth versus value and a possible mega breakout favoring growth * The technology/staples ratio supports the growth/value breakout * Some credit spreads are looking shaky * Are stocks finally breaking against commodities? Growth versus value and a possible mega-breakout favoring growth Chart 1 compares the performance of the S&P...   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REMAINS IN SHORT-TERM PULLBACK -- IT'S BEING HELD BACK BY EVEN WEAKER FOREIGN YIELDS -- THAT EXPLAINS RECENT WEAKNESS IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES -- COMMODITY PRICES CONT...

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REMAINS IN SHORT-TERM PULLBACK -- IT'S BEING HELD BACK BY EVEN WEAKER FOREIGN YIELDS -- THAT EXPLAINS RECENT WEAKNESS IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES -- COMMODITY PRICES CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IS PULLING BACK ... After reaching the highest level in seven months during October, the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) has experienced a pullback. Chart 1 shows, however, that pullback in the TNX over the last two weeks hasn't been enough to reverse its general uptrend. It...   READ MORE