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CRB COMMODITY INDEX ACHIEVES A BULLISH BREAKOUT BY REACHING A TWO-YEAR HIGH -- THAT HELPED PUSH THE TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN THREE YEARS -- SO DID THE FACT THAT GERMAN AND AND BRITISH YIELDS TURNED UP THIS WEEK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CRB INDEX ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT ... A couple of messages during the week showed the Bloomberg Commodity Index nearing a two-year high. It broke through those highs during the week. Today's message shows the more widely-followed Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index accomplishing a bullish breakout of its own by rising...   READ MORE 

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Dollar Bear Market Is Not A One Way Street

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Dollar experiences a short-term reversal * Commodities are in a bull market but adversely affected near-term * Gold showing signs of tiredness but still within a base building process Dollar experiences a short-term reversal It’s a funny thing in markets, when you have just grown comfortable with a move, it sometimes...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE SPDR HITS NEW RECORD AND IS PLAYING CATCH-UP TO THE REST OF THE MARKET -- AMGEN AND BIOGEN LEAD BIOTECH ISHARES HIGHER -- ABBVIE EXPLODES TO NEW RECORD AND HELPS BOOST PHARMACEUTICAL ETF TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN TWO YEARS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE SECTOR IS PLAYING CATCH-UP ... Healthcare stocks are off to a good start for the new year, and are one of the market's strongest sectors. That's a big change from the past three years when healthcare was one of the markets weakest laggards. That's...   READ MORE 

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TREASURY SECRETARY TALKS DOWN THE DOLLAR WHICH DROPS SHARPLY -- BRITISH POUND SURGES AGAINST THE DOLLAR -- WHILE BRITISH BOND YIELD RISES TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN A YEAR -- BIG DROP IN DOLLAR PUSHES BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX NEAR A TWO-YEAR HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BRITISH POUND RISES WITH UK BOND YIELDS ... It's now official that the U.S. government wants a weaker dollar. Speaking in Switzerland, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that a weak dollar is good for the U.S. economy, and would help reduce the U.S. trade deficit. That'...   READ MORE 

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FALLING DOLLAR PUSHES BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX TO ELEVEN MONTH HIGH -- GOLD NEARS ANOTHER FOUR-MONTH HIGH -- A WEAK DOLLAR ALSO FAVORS LARGE CAPS OVER SMALLER STOCKS -- S&P BIOTECH SPDR REACHES NEW RECORD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES RISE... Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Dollar Index (UUP) falling today to the lowest level in three years. The dollar is losing ground against virtually all major foreign currencies. Most of the upward movement in the UUP is coming from buying of the...   READ MORE 

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Confidence Is Breaking Out All Over

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Last week’s bearish dark cloud cover fails * These confidence ratios are breaking to the upside and that’s bullish for stocks Last week’s bearish dark cloud cover fails Last week I pointed out that many of the principal indexes had traced out bearish dark cloud cover candlestick patterns....   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TOUCHES THREE-YEAR HIGH -- STRONG CHINESE ECONOMY PUSHES MAINLAND STOCKS HIGHER -- HONG KONG HITS A NEW RECORD -- A WEAKER DOLLAR FAVORS FOREIGN STOCKS -- FOREIGN STOCK ETFS GET A BOOST FROM RISING LOCAL CURRENCIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR BOND YIELD TOUCHES THREE-YEAR HIGH ... The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield touching the highest level in three years today. A decisive close above its late 2016 peak (2.62%) would signal even higher rates. That's a lot better for stocks than it...   READ MORE 

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STOCK BUYING RESUMES AFTER YESTERDAY'S PULLBACK -- DOW REGAINS 26K -- YESTERDAY'S INTRA-DAY LOW PROVIDES A SHORT-TERM SUPPORT LEVEL -- SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD TECHNOLOGY SECTOR TO NEW HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKET INDEXES NEAR YESTERDAY'S INTRA-DAY HIGH ... Stocks are making a strong comeback after yesterday afternoon's pullback. The charts below show 30-minute price bars for the three major stock indexes. All three are approaching the intra-day highs reached yesterday. Chart 1 also shows the Dow Industrials back...   READ MORE 

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Cold Weather And Dark Cloud Cover Seen Over Wall Street

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Dark cloud cover explained * What enhances a dark cloud signal * How long is its bearish effect likely to last? Dark cloud cover explained The weather forecast this morning was for wintery weather on the East Coast. However, a more sobering non-meteorological message has been given by the stock market. Tuesday’...   READ MORE 

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Several Intermarket Relationships Are Forecasting Higher Commodity Prices

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* CRB Composite nudging through mega resistance * Key intermarket relationships starting to point in an inflationary direction * Inter-asset ratios also confirm the inflationary scenario * Euro breaks to the upside CRB Composite nudging through mega resistance Late last month I wrote about several charts I was watching for a possible breakout in...   READ MORE 

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EURO REACHES THREE-YEAR HIGH AGAINST DOLLAR -- THAT'S GOOD FOR COMMODITIES -- ENERGY SPDR BREAKS OUT TO THE UPSIDE -- DECEMBER CPI ABOVE 2% SECOND MONTH IN A ROW -- CORE CPI HAS BIGGEST JUMP IN 11 MONTHS -- WHAT ENERGY DROP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EURO REACHES THREE-YEAR HIGH ... Yesterday's message showed the euro on the verge of a new three-year high. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the eurozone currency achieving that bullish breakout in today's trading. I also mentioned yesterday that a move above 1.20 would push...   READ MORE 

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A TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD MOVE ABOVE 2.62% WOULD PAVE THE WAY FOR 3% YIELD LATER THIS YEAR -- THAT WOULD PUT THE THIRTY-FIVE YEAR DECLINE IN BOND YIELDS IN JEOPARDY -- GERMAN YIELD NEARS TWO-YEAR HIGH ON HAWKISH ECB HINT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

A LONGER TERM LOOK AT RISING BOND YIELDS... Chart evidence of a major upturn in Treasury bond yields continues to grow. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield ($TNX) nearing a test of its late 2016 intra-day peak at 2.62%. A decisive move above that...   READ MORE 

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Bond Yields Are Breaking Out All Over

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Basic changes in long-term momentum * The five-year maturity is signalling an end to the secular decline in yields * Twenty-year yield showing signs of basing * Ten-year attacking mega down trend line * From a short-term aspect bond prices look vulnerable * Utilities about to crash? Basic changes in long-term momentum Since the beginning...   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD JUMPS TO NINE MONTH HIGH -- BANK OF JAPAN CUTS BOND PURCHASES -- THAT'S BOOSTING BANKS WHILE HURTING UTILITIES -- A DRAMATIC ROTATION OUT OF UTILITIES INTO TRANSPORTS POINTS TO A STRONGER ECONOMY AND HIGHER RATES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MARCH ... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) climbing 5 basis points to 2.53% which is the highest level since last March. That leaves little doubt that the trend for Treasury yields is upward. Part of the reason for today'...   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCKS START YEAR WITH A BANG WITH STOCKS AROUND THE WORLD HITTING NEW RECORDS -- BUT THE S&P 500 INDEX IS THE MOST OVERBOUGHT IN TWENTY YEARS -- AND IS WELL INTO A FIVE-WAVE ADVANCE -- THE CRB INDEX MAY BE NEARING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 IS MOST OVERBOUGHT SINCE LATE 1990S... Global stock markets started off the new year with a bang. U.S. stock indexes exploded to record highs for the best start in years. Foreign stock benchmarks did the same, including the FTSE All World Stock Index which also...   READ MORE 

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Martin Pring's Market Roundup Video January 2018-01-03

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

This months Market Roundup live video has a lot of information on the bond market. The six-stage cycle is currently in Stage 3. This large overview shows some of the major macro trends that are breaking right now. Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2018-01-03 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good...   READ MORE 

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Dollar Index Is Just Above Make Or Break Support--- Will It Bounce Or Break?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

Dollar Index is in a confirmed bear market * Dollar sympathy indicators are close to a major breakdown * Canadian and Aussie dollars are driven by commodity prices * Emerging Market ETF benefiting from a weaker dollar Dollar Index is in a confirmed bear market As 2018 begins to unfold the Dollar Index...   READ MORE 

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CRUDE OIL HITS ANOTHER HIGH AND NEARS TEST OF $62 -- UNITED STATES OIL FUND NEARS TEST OF SPRING 2016 HIGH -- ENERGY SPDR MAY ON THE VERGE OF A BULLISH BREAKOUT -- ENERGY/SPX RELATIVE STRENGTH RATIO REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL IN EIGHT MONTHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

UNITED STATES OIL FUND NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT ... Energy prices continue to rise. WTIC Light Crude Oil is trading over $61 today for the first time more than two years and is nearing a test of its spring 2015 high just over $62. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund...   READ MORE 

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COMMODITIES ARE AT LOWEST LEVEL RELATIVE TO STOCKS IN HISTORY -- COMMODITIES HAVE A LOT OF CATCHING UP TO DO -- THAT PROCESS MAY BE BEGINNING -- CRB INDEX MAY BE NEARING UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRODUCERS ETF REACHES THREE-YEAR HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COMMODITIES ARE HISTORICALLY VERY CHEAP VERSUS STOCKS... I suggested yesterday that commodity prices (and stocks tied to them) usually do better in the later stages of a business cycle as inflation pressures start to build. We may be entering that stage. One of the reasons why investors may be turning...   READ MORE 

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Four Markets To Watch In 2018 For A Potentially Important Breakout

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* 10-year bond yields could be in the process of a secular reversal. * What odds is the S. Korean ETF placing on the breakout of war? * China has gone uncharacteristically quiet. Is this the quiet before the storm? * CRB Composite just below mega resistance As we approach 2018 I thought it...   READ MORE 

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WEAKER DOLLAR PUSHES COMMODITY PRICES HIGHER -- GOLD AND ITS MINERS CLIMB -- RISING ALUMINUM AND COPPER PRICES PUSH THEIR SHARES TO NEW HIGHS -- SOUTHERN COPPER HITS ALL-TIME HIGH -- RISING COMMODITIES MAY GIVE A BOOST TO CANADIAN STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX WEAKENS ... The U.S. dollar continues to weaken. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares US Dollar Index (UUP) falling today to the lowest level in a month. The dollar is down against all foreign developed currencies except the yen which is marginally lower. The biggest influence on...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS HAVE ANOTHER UP WEEK BUT END QUIETLY -- - SURGE IN BOND YIELDS WAS WEEK'S BIGGEST STORY -- INFLATION-SENSITIVE STOCKS SURGED WHILE RATE-SENSITIVE STOCKS TUMBLED -- THAT SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME HEDGING AGAINST FUTURE INFLATION GOING ON

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SANTA CLAUS RALLY STILL LIES AHEAD... The stock market experienced the second slowest trading day of the year on Friday as traders headed home for Christmas. All major stock indexes, however, hit new records during the week. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index had the week's biggest percentage...   READ MORE 

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The Yield Curve Is Not Forecasting A Recession Right Now

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* What message is the yield curve giving? * Secular reversal in short-term bond yields is being signalled * Energy sector breaks to the upside * Energy strength may breathe life into the CRB Composite What message is the yield curve giving? Despite what you may be reading, the yield curve is not forecasting...   READ MORE 

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DOW JONES HOME CONSTRUCTION INDEX REACHES ELEVEN YEAR HIGH BUT STILL LOOKS CHEAP ON A RELATIVE STRENGTH BASIS -- US HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES ARE HAVING A STRONGER YEAR THAN THE S&P HOMEBUILDER SPDR -- ENERGY SPDR HITS ELEVEN MONTH HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW JONES HOME CONSTRUCTION INDEX REACHES ELEVEN-YEAR HIGH... Recent reports of strong home sales and home construction have boosted stocks tied to the housing sector. The low inventory of existing homes available for sale argues for even more homebuilding in the year ahead. All of which bodes well for the...   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLIMBS TO NINE-MONTH HIGH -- LONG-TERM TREASURY BOND CHART LOOKS BEARISH -- RELATIVE STRENGTH ANALYSIS SHOWS RISING RATES HURTING UTILITIES AND REITS -- BUT BOOSTING FINANCIALS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS NINE-MONTH HIGH ... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield climbing another 3 basis points today to the highest level since March (2.49%). That's most likely tied to the impending passage of the tax bill before Congress with expectations for faster economic growth and...   READ MORE 

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10-YEAR BOND YIELD SURGES TO TWO-MONTH HIGH AND MAY BE ON VERGE OF UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- FOREIGN YIELDS ARE ALSO JUMPING -- THAT'S PUSHING BOND PRICES SHARPLY LOWER -- UTILITIES AND REITS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SERIOUS UNDERPERMANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SURGES... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield ($TNX) jumping 7 basis points today to the highest level in two months in one of the biggest daily gains this year. That puts the yield within striking distance of its late October intra-day peak...   READ MORE 

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STEEL STOCKS LEAD MATERIALS TO NEW RECORD -- STEEL ETF NEARS FIVE-YEAR HIGH -- STEEL LEADERS INCLUDE NUCOR AND STEEL DYNAMICS -- S&P METALS AND MINING SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- STOCKS HAVE ANOTHER STRONG DAY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MATERIALS SPDR HITS NEW RECORD ... In a strong market day, materials led stocks higher. Chart 1 shows the Materials Select SPDR (XLB) breaking out to a new record. The XLB has been finding support along its 50-day average. The XLB/SPX ratio (top of chart) has been lagging behing the...   READ MORE 

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TECHNOLOGY IS WEEK'S STRONGEST SECTOR AND HITS NEW HIGH -- SO DOES THE NASDAQ 100 -- MICROSOFT WAS ONE OF THE BIG REASONS WHY -- RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES BOUNCE OFF 50-DAY AVERAGE -- SMALL CAPS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM TAX CUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TECHNOLOGY HAS A STRONG WEEK... After leading the market higher for most of the year, technology stocks saw some profit-taking near the end of November, and have lagged behind the rest of the market since then. This week, however, technology was the market's strongest sector. And that was...   READ MORE 

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What's The Market Going To Do When The Tax Bill Is Passed?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* General thoughts on the discounting process * Short-term indicators poised for, but not yet signalling a decline General thoughts on the discounting process There is an old adage on Wall Street to the effect that traders should, in the case of war, sell the rumor and buy on the sound of...   READ MORE 

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DISNEY AND FOX SURGE TOGETHER -- TIFFANY BREAKS OUT WHILE NIKE CONTINUES TO RUN -- DELTA AND SOUTHWEST CLIMB TO NEW HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DISNEY AND FOX SURGE ... The announcement that Walt Disney was buying $66 billion worth of assets from Fox sent both stocks surging today. And they helped make cyclical stocks the day's biggest gainer. Chart 1 shows Disney (DIS) surging more than 3% to the highest closing level since...   READ MORE 

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RISING BOND YIELDS BOOSTS FINANCIAL STOCKS -- FINANCIAL SPDR LEADS MARKET HIGHER -- GOLDMAN SACHS SETS A NEW RECORD -- VERIZON SURGE LEADS TELECOM HIGHER -- AT&T CLEARS ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- EDISON INTL WEIGHS ON UTILITY SECTOR

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELD IS CLIMBING... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield climbing 2 basis points to 2.40%. The 5-year Treasury Yield (not shown) has climbed to the highest level in six years. Today's strong PPI report may have something to do with that....   READ MORE 

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INDUSTRIAL SECTOR CONTINUES TO SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP -- DOW JONES HEAVY CONSTRUCTION INDEX MAY BE NEARING UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- QUANTA SERVICES AND JACOBS ENGINEERING HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT -- AMONG RETAILERS, BEST BUY HITS A NEW RECORD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR CONTINUES NEW LEADERSHIP ROLE... Industrial stocks assumed a new market leadership role during November and remained in that role again this week. Chart 1 shows the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) gaining 1.4% during the week which made it second only to the financial sector's gain...   READ MORE 

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Guess What? Short Term Indicators Are Saying That Bitcoin Is Getting A Bit Frothy!

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* 18-month ROC is literally off the charts * Bitcoin and short- term momentum * Comparing Bitcoin to the Bitcoin Trust * Conclusion * Links to videos on Bitcoin 18-month ROC is literally off the charts There are two Bitcoin directly related vehicles that are available on the StockCharts platform. These are the NYSE Bitcoin...   READ MORE 

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December 2017 Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2017-12-06

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

This months Market Roundup highlights the three main assets of bonds, commodities and stocks. Rotations between these asset classes can help find major secular moves. This month shows multiple trends changing. Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2017-12-06 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring...   READ MORE 

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Precious Metals And Commodities Starting To Break Down

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Gold leads commodities * Gold, gold shares and silver complete head and shoulder patterns * Two confidence ratios are forecasting lower gold prices * Commodities headed lower Gold leads commodities Chart 1 compares the price of gold to commodities in the form of the CRB Composite. The green shaded areas represent rally periods...   READ MORE 

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EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES FALL TO TWO-MONTH LOW -- MOST OF THE SELLING IS COMING FROM ASIA, AND TAIWAN IN PARTICULAR -- SELLING IN TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR IS THE MAIN REASON WHY -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETFS HAVE SLIPPED BELOW THEIR 50-DAY LINES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES FALL TO TWO-MONTH LOW... The recent rotation out of technology stocks may be taking a toll on emerging markets which are heavily exposed to that sector. Chart 1 shows Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) falling below its 50-day average to the lowest level in two months. And it&...   READ MORE 

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MONEY CONTINUES TO ROTATE OUT OF TECHNOLOGY AND INTO BANKS, RETAILERS, ENERGY AND TRANSPORTS -- FAANG STOCKS AND SEMICONDUCTORS WEIGH ON TECHNOLOGY SECTOR -- S&P 500 VALUE ISHARES ARE OUTPERFORMING GROWTH ISHARES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CHEAPER STOCKS ARE GAINING ... The rotation into cheaper undervalued stocks that started last week is continuing today on the back of the weekend passage of the tax reform package. The relative strength lines in Chart 1 show the past week's leaders to be banks (blue line), retailers (red...   READ MORE 

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ENERGY SHARES ARE BOUNCING ON OPTIMISM OVER OPEC AGREEMENT -- EXXON MOBIL MAY BE ON THE VERGE OF A BULLISH BREAKOUT -- CHEVRON IS NEARING A NEW RECORD HIGH -- ENERGY SHARES MAY START TO BENEFIT FROM RECENT BUYING OF CHEAP STOCK GROUPS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ENERGY SHARES REBOUND ... Energy shares are finally showing some bounce. The daily bars in Chart 1 shows the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) climbing above its 50-day average today. The XLE is bouncing off chart support along its late October low and its 200-day moving average. Those are logical chart points...   READ MORE 

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RETAIL SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- TODAY'S RETAIL LEADERS INCLUDE NORDSTROM, KOHLS, AND TJX -- TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE RISES SHARPLY -- AIRLINES AND DELIVERY SERVICE STOCKS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P RETAIL SPDR BREAKS OUT TO THE UPSIDE... My Monday message showed the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT) attempting an upside breakout above its October high. Chart 1 shows the XRT accomplishing that in pretty decisive fashion over the last two days. In fact, retailers have been...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIAL SPDR IS FINDING SUPPORT AT 50-DAY AVERAGE -- S&P BANK SPDR IS ALSO TRADING ABOVE ITS 50-DAY LINE -- BANK LEADERS INCLUDE J.P. MORGAN CHASE, REGIONS FINANCIAL, AND ZIONS BANCORP -- INSURERS ARE ALSO HAVING A STRONG DAY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIAL SPDR CONTINUES TO BOUNCE OFF 50-DAY AVERAGE... My message from last Wednesday showed the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) starting to bounce off its 50-day moving average. Chart 1 shows that the XLF continues to find support at its 50-day line. That's an encouraging sign. The gray area...   READ MORE