GROWTH STOCKS ARE LEADING THIS YEAR'S STOCK RALLY... The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit new record highs yesterday, and the Dow isn't far behind. Large parts of the stock market, however, are lagging behind. That's not necessarily a good thing. The... READ MORE
* Lots of supporting breakouts * Confidence ratio on the verge of a major bullish breakout? * Financials: trick or treat? * The US is due for a bounce against the rest of the world * Is it time to play the China card? Lots of supporting breakouts Last week I pointed out that the... READ MORE
INDUSTRIAL SPDR HITS NEW RECORD... Chart 1 shows the Industrial Select SPDR (XLK) trading in record territory today. Today's higher price action is pushing the XLI above a sideways trading pattern that's been in effect since the start of March. Its relative strength line (above chart)... READ MORE
* Dollar Index experiences major trendline breaks and MA crossovers * Dollar sympathy relationships confirm a weaker dollar * Emerging currencies are emerging * Some currencies remain in bear market against the dollar Dollar Index experiences major trendline breaks and MA crossovers This week, the US Dollar Index ($USD) violated several key benchmarks, leading... READ MORE
RISING EUROPEAN CURRENCIES ARE PUSHING THE DOLLAR LOWER... While stocks are rebounding today, the dollar isn't. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index ETF (UUP) falling again today to the lowest level since November. It may seem surprising to see the dollar continuing to drop with bond... READ MORE
* 10-day ROC for the VIX may have a message for traders * Close that gap on your way out * Financials, a canary in the coal line for stocks in general Last week I wrote about the $VIX and concluded that a low reading, such as we recently saw, usually precedes a... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO DROP ... My Saturday message issued some short-term warnings for the market. Part of that warning came from falling bond yields which hinted that fixed income traders were turning more pessimistic. Another came from weak performances by banks, small caps, and transports which are leading the stock... READ MORE
U.S. STOCKS ARE GLOBAL UNDERACHIEVERS... Several of my previous messages have written about foreign stocks doing better than those in the U.S. this year. I'll come back to those foreign charts shortly. Chart 1, however, is designed to show how weak U.S. stocks have been... READ MORE
* Trying to replicate the Shanghai Composite with a Chinese ETF * Global Update Years ago, investing in China was a challenging proposition for US based investors. In recent years though, a number of ETF’s have been listed that embrace Chinese Indexes as well as specific sectors. The big daddy of... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS DROP ON FRIDAY... Some caution crept into financial markets near the end of the week. Part of that was reflected in Friday's sharp drop in bond yields. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield falling back below its 50-day average in pretty decisive fashion. That was... READ MORE
* The VIX * The Dollar Index * The Euro * Swiss Franc * Japanese Yen The VIX Most of this piece is devoted to the dollar and some interesting looking currencies. However, I have been intrigued by a couple of articles and news stories recently appearing in the general purpose media. They have pointed... READ MORE
COMMODITIES DIVERGE FROM EEM... One of the long-held principles of emerging market behavior is that they're closely correlated to the direction of commodity prices. That's because several large emerging markets are exporters of commodities (like Brazil and Russia). China is the world's biggest importer... READ MORE
* $CRB and oil break to the downside * The stock market says commodities are headed lower * Bond market participants leaning in a deflationary way * Watch those commodity currencies The usual “Sell in May and Go Away” articles are starting to appear bigly, and a case can indeed be made in that... READ MORE
SECTOR LEADERSHIP... One of the problems facing the current stock market is that some sectors have been rising, while others have suffered large losses. Since the start of the year, for example, technology has gained nearly 14% versus a 6.7% gain for the S&P 500. Energy stocks,... READ MORE
GOLD ASSETS ARE ALSO FALLING... Add gold and gold miners to the list of former safe havens that are weakening. Chart 1 shows the Gold SPDR (GLD) falling to a seven-week low today and back below its moving average lines. Gold miners are doing even worse. Chart 2 shows the... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD STILL IN UPTREND... Today's Fed announcement contained no surprises. However, the Fed's view that recent economic softness is "transitory" in nature appears to have caused an uptick in bond yields. Technical factors also appear to favor higher yields. I'll... READ MORE
* A few words on long-term charts * US equities starting a period of underperformance? * Overcoming resistance * Chinese equities look vulnerable * Good looking country charts A few words on long-term charts I like looking at short-term charts because you can sometimes pick up some interesting psychological characteristics through divergences, candlesticks and one... READ MORE
Here is the link to the Market Roundup Live by Martin Pring 2017-05-02. Market Round Up Live With Martin Pring 2017-05-02 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring... READ MORE
CONSUMER STAPLES ARE WEAKENING... Defensive parts of the market are starting to weaken. That includes consumer staples. At the same time, money is flowing back into more economically sensitive stock groups like consumer discretionary stocks (more on that shortly). That's normally a good sign for the market. Chart... READ MORE
* Gold’s long term trading range * Watch those Gold shares for clues about Gold * Hail Silver? Gold’s long term trading range Gold is often regarded as a safe-haven investment, but is more normally held as a hedge against inflation. Chart 1 deflates the price by the CPI, so you... READ MORE
HEALTH CARE SPDR NEARS RECORD HIGH... Although it hasn't received much attention lately, the healthcare sector is quietly moving higher. In fact, healthcare is the third strongest sector this year behind technology and consumer cyclicals. And its chart looks promising. Chart 1 shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV)... READ MORE
MARKET INDEXES TURN HIGHER ... The stock market is continuing to benefit from the "risk on" rally that started yesterday after the weekend vote in France. And all signs are currently positive. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares QQQ hitting a new record for the second day in row. The... READ MORE
FRANCE LEADS EUROPE HIGHER... French stocks are leading big gains in eurozone stocks. A strong Euro is giving an even bigger boost to eurozone ETFs. Chart 1 shows MSCI France iShares (EWQ) surging more than 5% to the highest level in three years. That compares with a 4% gain in... READ MORE
EUROZONE STOCKS ARE ATTRACTING GLOBAL FUNDS ... Part of the reason that U.S. stocks haven't been doing so well during 2017 is that global funds are moving into other parts of the world. Especially to Europe. More specifically, the eurozone. The reason is simple. U.S. stocks are... READ MORE
* Bond yields sending a deflationary message * Intermarket signals from equities are close to deflationary signals * So are similar measures for bonds * More on confidence relationships Wednesday’s close saw a lot of key ratios and some markets resting on key trendlines and moving averages. Since these benchmarks represent potential support,... READ MORE
CLIMB IN GASOLINE SUPPLIES HURTS CRUDE... A surprising jump in gasoline supplies caused heavy selling in the price of crude oil and gasoline. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund (USO) falling nearly 4% today to the lowest level in two weeks. The USO also fell back below its... READ MORE
* Recent technical deterioration * Bonds and the recent false upside breakout * Gold’s false breakout also turned out to be “false” The long-term indicators for the equity market continue to look positive, as the major averages are comfortably above their key moving averages. Pretty well all measures of long-term smoothed momentum... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD FALLS TO FIVE-MONTH LOW... Bond yields have been slipping since March as investors have had second thoughts about the so-called Trump bump in stocks and the economy. Geopolitical concerns may also be causing profit-taking in stocks and buying of safe havens like bonds and gold. That risk-off... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 MAY BE SLIPPING BELOW 50-DAY LINES... The short-term trend for the market continues to weaken. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial SPDR (DIA) trading below its 50-day average in early afternoon trading. The DIA hasn't closed below that support line since... READ MORE
1. False moves in the precious metal pits 2. Outside day in silver tips the near-term balance to the bears 3. More false breaks in the bond pits Late last week I wrote that several markets had recently experienced false moves, known as whipsaws. It seems that Friday saw this... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES HOLD 50-DAY LINES ... Entering today's trading, stocks were relatively flat on the week. Bond prices, however, were nearing the top of their 2017 trading range. Other safe haven assets like gold and the yen have been bouncing as well. Yesterday's missile attack on... READ MORE
* A few words on false moves * US market experiences false upside breakout this week * Whipsaws in the sectors * European currency whipsaws A few words on false moves Prices in financial markets are driven principally by psychology. They effectively reflect people in action. The problem is, that people can and do... READ MORE
DOW JONES US PIPELINES INDEX IS TURNING UP ... My last two messages suggested that the energy sector was trying to stabilize near its 200-day average. That's based on the assumption that the price of oil is also bottoming. My Saturday message further suggested that oil service stocks were... READ MORE
Here is a link to this week's video. Market RoundUp With Martin Pring 2017-04-04 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of... READ MORE
MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE... My Thursday message showed three stock groups that had fallen to their 200-day averages and were starting to stabilize. They included commodity-related groups like energy and metals and mining ETFs. They also included heavy construction stocks like Fluor (FLR) and Jacobs Engineering (JEC)... READ MORE
HEAVY CONSTRUCTION INDEX BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE... This week's rebound by major stock indexes off their 50-day averages has been encouraging. So is the fact that several economically-sensitive stock groups are finding support at their 200-day lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones US Heavy Construction Index bouncing... READ MORE
* Two short-term indicators that can support higher prices * Global equities ex the US are poised for a mega breakout * Three markets poised for a major breakout * Commodities coming to life? It’s a well-known axiom on Wall Street that it’s not the news that is important but the market’... READ MORE
STOCK ETFS REBOUND OFF 50-DAY AVERAGE ... Yesterday's message showed major stock indexes stabilizing at their 50-day averages. Today, they're rebounding impressively today off that rising support line. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial SPDR (DIA) having its best day in a month. Chart 2 shows... READ MORE
MARKET INDEXES TRY TO FIND SUPPORT AT THEIR 50-DAY LINES... Today's lower open pushed several stock indexes down to their 50-day averages. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trying to regain lost ground in afternoon trading. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 trying to stay above... READ MORE
* The TIP/TLT Ratio reflects swings in commodity prices * Watch that Technology/Staples ratio for a possible bullish breakout * US breaking down against Global Equities The TIP/TLT ratio reflects swings in commodity prices When bond yields are compared to commodity prices there is definitely a connection, as we can... READ MORE