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ENERGY SHARES LEAD MARKET LOWER AS CRUDE OIL DROPS TO TWO-WEEK LOW -- TWO ENERGY ETFS FALL TO NEW 2017 LOW -- DOW INDUSTRIALS CLOSE AT TWO-MONTH LOW -- S&P 500 REMAINS ON THE DEFENSIVE -- ON BALANCE VOLUME LOOKS WEAK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CLIMB IN GASOLINE SUPPLIES HURTS CRUDE... A surprising jump in gasoline supplies caused heavy selling in the price of crude oil and gasoline. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund (USO) falling nearly 4% today to the lowest level in two weeks. The USO also fell back below its...
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Bull Market Correction Looks Likely To Continue
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Recent technical deterioration
* Bonds and the recent false upside breakout
* Gold’s false breakout also turned out to be “false”
The long-term indicators for the equity market continue to look positive, as the major averages are comfortably above their key moving averages. Pretty well all measures of long-term smoothed momentum...
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BOND YIELD FALLS TO FIVE MONTH LOW -- RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN HIGH YIELD BONDS IS BAD FOR STOCKS -- FINANCIALS AND SMALL CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- S&P 500 CLOSES BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE -- SAFE HAVEN BUYING PUSHES GOLD TO FIVE MONTH HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD FALLS TO FIVE-MONTH LOW... Bond yields have been slipping since March as investors have had second thoughts about the so-called Trump bump in stocks and the economy. Geopolitical concerns may also be causing profit-taking in stocks and buying of safe havens like bonds and gold. That risk-off...
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DOW AND S&P 500 ARE THREATENING THEIR 50-DAY AVERAGES -- TECHNOLGY SELLING WEAKENS THE NASDAQ -- FINANCIALS AND TRANPORTS CONTINUE TO UNDERPERFORM -- VIX HITS FIVE-MONTH HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW AND S&P 500 MAY BE SLIPPING BELOW 50-DAY LINES... The short-term trend for the market continues to weaken. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial SPDR (DIA) trading below its 50-day average in early afternoon trading. The DIA hasn't closed below that support line since...
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Friday's Trading Action Offers More False Signals
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
1. False moves in the precious metal pits
2. Outside day in silver tips the near-term balance to the bears
3. More false breaks in the bond pits
Late last week I wrote that several markets had recently experienced false moves, known as whipsaws. It seems that Friday saw this...
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STOCK INDEXES STAY ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGES AFTER MISSILE ATTACK -- SMALL CAPS AND FINANCIALS NEED TO DO BETTER -- BOND YIELDS BOUNCE OFF BOTTOM OF 2017 TRADING RANGE -- DOLLAR RALLIES AS SAFE HAVEN YEN WEAKENS -- GOLD STRUGGLES AT 200-DAY AVERAGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES HOLD 50-DAY LINES ... Entering today's trading, stocks were relatively flat on the week. Bond prices, however, were nearing the top of their 2017 trading range. Other safe haven assets like gold and the yen have been bouncing as well. Yesterday's missile attack on...
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Markets Have Experienced A Lot Of Fake Breakouts Recently
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* A few words on false moves
* US market experiences false upside breakout this week
* Whipsaws in the sectors
* European currency whipsaws
A few words on false moves
Prices in financial markets are driven principally by psychology. They effectively reflect people in action. The problem is, that people can and do...
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PIPELINES ARE YEAR'S STRONGEST ENERGY GROUP -- ALERIAN MLP ETF COVERS THAT GROUP -- ONEOK AND MPLX ARE PIPELINE LEADERS -- TRANSCANADA CORP HOLDS 200-DAY LINE -- GLOBAL X MLP & ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE ETF BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY LINE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW JONES US PIPELINES INDEX IS TURNING UP ... My last two messages suggested that the energy sector was trying to stabilize near its 200-day average. That's based on the assumption that the price of oil is also bottoming. My Saturday message further suggested that oil service stocks were...
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Market Round Up Video Recording 2017-04-04
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
Here is a link to this week's video.
Market RoundUp With Martin Pring 2017-04-04 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo.
Good luck and good charting,
Martin J. Pring
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of...
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BUILDING MATERIALS STOCKS MAY ALSO BE BOTTOMING -- MARTIN MARIETTA AND VULCAN MATERIALS FIND SUPPORT NEAR 200-DAY AVERAGES -- OIL SERVICE STOCKS LEAD ENERGY SECTOR HIGHER AND SHOW BETTER RELATIVE STRENGTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE... My Thursday message showed three stock groups that had fallen to their 200-day averages and were starting to stabilize. They included commodity-related groups like energy and metals and mining ETFs. They also included heavy construction stocks like Fluor (FLR) and Jacobs Engineering (JEC)...
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HEAVY CONSTRUCTION AND MINING STOCKS TEST 200-DAY AVERAGES -- SO ARE ENERGY SHARES AS CRUDE OIL STRENGTHENS -- % OF NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE REMAINS STRONG -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR HITS NEW RECORD -- SMALL CAPS OUTPACE LARGE CAPS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HEAVY CONSTRUCTION INDEX BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE... This week's rebound by major stock indexes off their 50-day averages has been encouraging. So is the fact that several economically-sensitive stock groups are finding support at their 200-day lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones US Heavy Construction Index bouncing...
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Monday Was A Very Important Inflexion Point For Several Markets
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Two short-term indicators that can support higher prices
* Global equities ex the US are poised for a mega breakout
* Three markets poised for a major breakout
* Commodities coming to life?
It’s a well-known axiom on Wall Street that it’s not the news that is important but the market’...
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STOCKS REBOUND FROM SUCCESSFULL TEST OF 50-DAY AVERAGES -- ECONOMICALLY-SENSITIVE STOCKS LEAD WHILE STAPLES AND UTILITIES LAG -- BOND PRICES WEAKEN WHILE HIGH YIELD BONDS REBOUND -- GOLD AND THE EURO MEET RESISTANCE AT 200-DAY LINES AS DOLLAR REBOUNDS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCK ETFS REBOUND OFF 50-DAY AVERAGE ... Yesterday's message showed major stock indexes stabilizing at their 50-day averages. Today, they're rebounding impressively today off that rising support line. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial SPDR (DIA) having its best day in a month. Chart 2 shows...
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STOCK INDEXES TEST 50-DAY LINES -- BOND PRICES TEST OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- DOLLAR FALLS TO 200-DAY LINE -- GOLD REACHES RESISTANCE -- MARKETS HAVE REACHED INFLECTION POINT WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF THE TRUMP RALLY IS OVER OR JUST PAUSING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MARKET INDEXES TRY TO FIND SUPPORT AT THEIR 50-DAY LINES... Today's lower open pushed several stock indexes down to their 50-day averages. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trying to regain lost ground in afternoon trading. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 trying to stay above...
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What Are Bond Market Intermarket Relationships Saying About Inflation?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* The TIP/TLT Ratio reflects swings in commodity prices
* Watch that Technology/Staples ratio for a possible bullish breakout
* US breaking down against Global Equities
The TIP/TLT ratio reflects swings in commodity prices
When bond yields are compared to commodity prices there is definitely a connection, as we can...
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FALLING DOLLAR CONTRIBUTES TO RISING EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES AND STOCKS -- MEXICAN PESO AND STOCK ETF ALSO GAIN GROUND -- A RISING YUAN IS HELPING BOOST CHINESE STOCKS -- STOCK GAINS EVAPORATE ON POSTPONEMENT OF HEALTHCARE VOTE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES SUPPORT RISING STOCKS... Previous messages have shown the rise in emerging market stocks, partially owing to the drop in the U.S. dollar. The same can be said of EM currencies. The red line in Chart 1 shows Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) rising to the highest level...
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MAJOR STOCK INDEXES SUFFER BIGGEST DROP THIS YEAR -- SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS LOOK EVEN WORSE -- BANKS LEAD FINANCIALS LOWER ON FALLING BOND YIELDS -- FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS GOLD -- EURO NEARS TEST OF FEBRUARY HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCK ETFS SELLOFF... The market is suffering its worst day this year. Chart 1 show the PowerShares Nasdaq QQQ experiencing a downside reversal day after hitting a record high this morning. Its 14-day RSI has fallen out of overbought territory over 70 for the first time since December which shows...
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Five Markets That Are Approaching Critical Junctures
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* US Dollar completes a head and shoulders top
* Dollar right at key up trendline against the rest of the world
* Gold caught in a tight trading range
* West Texas oil also restrained in a tight trading range
* Mexico---a chance to jump over the wall?
* Emerging markets to the rescue
It...
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ALL-WORLD INDEX HITS NEW RECORD -- FOREIGN STOCKS CONTINUE TO RALLY -- ASIA LEADS EMERGING MARKETS HIGHER -- EUROPE ALSO LOOKS STRONG -- THAT INCLUDES IRELAND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FTSE ALL-WORLD INDEX HITS NEW RECORD... Chart 1 shows the FTSE All-World Stock Index ($FAW) trading at a new record high. The FAW includes stocks from 47 developed and emerging markets. It just recently cleared its 2015 high which resumed its major uptrend. That's a positive sign because...
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STOCKS AND BONDS RALLY ON FED ANNOUNCEMENT -- PULLBACK IN YIELDS BOOSTS REITS AND UTILITIES, WHILE BANKS LAG -- DOLLAR DROP BOOSTS GOLD -- STOCK INDEXES REACT POSITIVELY -- EMERGING MARKETS LEAD FOREIGN STOCK ETFS HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FED MOVE VIEWED AS DOVISH... The Fed hiked rates today as expected, with expectations for two more hikes this year. Judging from immediate market reactions, the Fed announcement is being viewed as somewhat dovish. For one thing, bond yields are dropping. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield falling sharply....
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When Will Rising Rates Hit The Stock Market?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* No consistent relationship between rates and equity prices
* Three step and a stumble
* Combining interest rate movements with equity trends
No consistent relationship between rates and equity prices
A lot of prognosticators have recently raised concerns that rising rates will soon affect equities in an adverse way. Last week at...
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SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN -- ENERGY STOCKS CONTINUE TO DROP ON FALLING OIL PRICE -- COMMODITY SELLOFF WEAKENS INFLATION TRADE -- HIGH YIELD BONDS SELL OFF ON COMMODITY WEAKNESS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS WEAKEN ... Bond yields are hitting multi-year highs in anticipation of a Fed rate hike tomorrow. Stocks remain in an uptrend, but weakness in some stock groups is sending short-term caution signals. Small caps and transports continue to weaken. So do energy shares along with falling oil...
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INTEREST RATES CLIMB ALONG WITH THE DOLLAR -- INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATES WEAKEN -- DROP IN JUNK BONDS MAY BE SHORT-TERM WARNING FOR STOCKS -- SMALL CAPS THREATEN 50-DAY LINE -- ENERGY SPDR PLUNGES ON FALLING CRUDE OIL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO CLIMB... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) climbing to 2.55% which is the highest level this year. The 2-Year Treasury yield (most sensitive to a Fed rate hike) has climbed to 1.35% which is the highest level in seven years. Odds for...
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Is The Global Bull Market In Interest Rates Resuming?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* The global picture
* Short-term rates
* Longer-term rates
* International rates
The Global Picture
When I talk about interest rates I am referring to a general advance that takes place at both ends of the yield spectrum. I make this reference because in many situations certain maturities and credit qualities do not...
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HOMEBUILDING LEADERS ARE DR HORTON, LENNAR, AND PULTEGROUP -- HEALTH CARE INSURERS LED HIGHER BY HUMANA, CIGNA, AND UNITEDHEALTH GROUP -- BIOTECH AND DRUG ETFS MEET RESISTANCE -- HEALTHCARE SPDR TESTS OLD HIGHS -- BAXTER INTL RECOVERS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DR HORTON, LENNAR, AND PULTE LOOK STRONG... Recent messages have shown bullish breakouts in a couple of ETFs tied to housing. The stronger of the two is the U.S. Home Construction iShares (ITB) which is the purest play on homebuilders. That's because its five biggest stocks are...
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TWO-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS SEVEN -YEAR HIGH ON INCREASED ODDS FOR MARCH RATE HIKE -- THAT'S BOOSTING THE DOLLAR WHICH MAY BE ENDING ITS 2017 CORRECTION -- GOLD ETF STALLS AT 200-DAY LINE -- GOLD MINERS ARE EVEN WEAKER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TWO-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REACHES SEVEN-YEAR HIGH... Chart 1 shows the 2-Year Treasury yield climbing above 1.30% today for the first time in seven years. That shorter term yield is more sensitive to the potential for a rate hike than longer-range maturities. That suggests that fixed income traders are taking...
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STOCKS HIT NEW RECORDS AS BOND YIELDS AND THE DOLLAR CLIMB -- FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, AND MATERIALS LEAD RALLY -- SO DO SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS -- GOLD AND OTHER SAFE HAVENS WEAKEN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS SURGE TO NEW RECORDS ... Last night's presidential speech appears to have re-energized the reflation trade that favors stocks over bonds, and economically-sensitive stocks in particular. The first three charts show ETFs of the three major U.S. stock indexes gapping into new highs. Their RSI lines remain...
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$GOLD : A Bear Market Rally Or A New Bull Market?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* The all-important trading range
* The short-term trend for Gold
* What’s going on with those Gold shares?
* Hail Silver?
$GOLD has been rallying of late and the question naturally arises as to whether this advance is for real or is a normal bear market counter-cyclical advance. The answer is not...
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BIOTECH ISHARES NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- TWO SMALLER BIOTECH ETFS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT -- TEN YEAR TREASURY YIELD THREATENS 2017 LOW -- SMALL CAPS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BIOTECH ISHARES NEAR SEPTEMBER HIGH... I've been writing about the recent upturn in the healthcare sector. And that the rally was being led higher medical device and equipment stocks, as well as health insurers. Biotechs and pharmaceuticals have lagged behind. Chart 1, however, shows the Nasdaq Biotechnology iShares...
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A Funny Thing May Be Happening On The Way To The Secular Bull Market In Interest Rates
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* How to spot a secular reversal
* Not all maturities are created equal
* The near-term technical picture
How to spot a secular reversal
A secular, or very long-term, trend is one that exists over many business cycles or what are usually called primary bull and bear markets. They vary in length...
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TRANSPORTS DIVERGE FROM INDUSTRIALS -- UTILITY SURGE MAY ALSO SIGNAL DEFENSIVE SHIFT -- UTILITY/TRANSPORTATION RATIO TURNS UP -- CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR NEARS NEW RECORD -- THAT MAY ALSO SIGNAL A MORE DEFENSIVE TONE IN AN OVERBOUGHT MARKET
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TRANSPORTS START TO WEAKEN ... A number of short-term caution signals are showing up for stocks which might be hinting that the current rally is due for a pullback. Some of those caution signals are coming from relationships between the three Dow Averages. Let's start with the transports. Chart...
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HOMEBUILDERS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY -- USING RATIO ANALYSIS TO CHOOSE THE STRONGEST HOUSING ETF -- AMAZON, HOME DEPOT, AND WAL-MART LEAD VANECK RETAIL ETF HIGHER -- S&P 500 VALUE/GROWTH RATIO MAY BE JUST PAUSING IN UPTREND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES HIT NEW HIGHS... Add housing stocks to parts of the stock market that still offer value and are attracting new money. Chart 1 shows the U.S. Home Construction iShares (ITB) climbing today to the highest level in nearly a decade. That's following...
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Is The Dollar Getting Ready To Make A Big Move?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* The Dollar Index -- primary trend
* The Dollar Index viewed from the short-term trend
* The euro
* The yen
* The Canadian dollar
* Emerging market currencies
Expectations were high for the US Dollar ($USD) following the election and indeed, the currency did rally for a while. However, the trend for most of...
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HEALTHCARE SPDR TURNS UP -- HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT AND MEDICAL DEVICE ETFS HIT NEW RECORDS -- HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS ETF TOUCHES 52-WEEK HIGH -- BIOTECHS AND PHARMACEUTAL ETFS SHOW IMPROVEMENT BUT ARE HEALTHCARE LAGGARDS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HEALTH CARE SPDR TURNS UP... In case you haven't noticed, the Health Care SPDR (XLV) has taken a bullish turn. Chart 1 shows the XLV breaking out of a bullish "ascending triangle" that I described in my February 4 message. At the same time, the XLV/...
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BOND YIELDS CLEAR 50-DAY LINE ON YELLEN TESTIMONY -- THAT HELPS FINANCIALS AND HURTS UTILITIES -- FINANCIALS/UTILITIES RATIO TURNS BACK UP -- RISING YIELDS BOOST DOLLAR AND WHICH HURTS GOLD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BOND YIELDS CLEAR 50-DAY LINE... Previous messages have described Treasury bond yields as consolidating within a major uptrend since mid-December . Today's jump in yields supports that view. In testimomy before Congress today, Janet Yellen warned about the danger of the Fed falling behind the inflation curve. That more...
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Market Extends Gains As Breadth Surprisingly Improves
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
More stocks trading above their 150-day MA’s
Last week I pointed out that many indicators were overstretched, thereby indicating the probability of a correction. I also stated that during a bull market, surprises typically develop on the upside. Consequently, if the market was able to shrug off its overbought...
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COPPER AND STEEL STOCKS RESUME UPTRENDS -- CRUDE OIL BOUNCE BOOSTS ENERGY SECTOR -- OIL SERVICE STOCKS ARE ENERGY LEADERS -- CANADIAN STOCKS HIT NEW RECORD ON COMMODITY RALLY -- AUSSIE AND CANADIAN DOLLARS ALSO TURN UP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COPPER AND STEEL STOCKS RESUME UPTRENDS... Economically-sensitive industrial metals are rising again, along with stocks tied to them. The price of copper is up 3.5% today to the highest level in nearly two years. So are copper shares. Chart 1 shows the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) resuming...
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New Highs In The Market ... But Fewer Stocks Are Participating
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Market still overstretched
* Greater selectivity as the market moves higher
* Whatever happened to China?
Last week, I pointed out that several indicators were pointing to a short-term correction. I also said that counter-cyclical corrections are difficult to play, essentially because they are usually over before you realize it. To quote...
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GOLD CONTINUES RALLY BUT NEARS RESISTANCE -- SO DO GOLD MINERS -- EURO STAYS FLAT -- PULLBACK IN BOND YIELDS ARE HELPING GOLD BUT MAYBE NOT FOR LONG -- REBOUND IN SAFE HAVEN BONDS AND THE YEN NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD REACHES THREE-MONTH HIGH... The price of gold continues to rise. Chart 1 shows the Gold Shares SPDR (GLD) trading at the highest level in three months. It has reached a point, however, where some overhead resistance may appear. For one thing, it has retraced 62% of its November/December...
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FINANCIALS LEAD FRIDAY'S STOCK BOUNCE -- SO DO SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS -- HEALTCHARE IS WEEK'S STRONGEST SECTOR -- HCA HOLDINGS ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- AMGEN SURGES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW AND S&P 500 END WEEK ON A STRONG NOTE ... What started off as a soft week for stocks ended on a strong note. Friday's gain was enough to keep stock indexes basically flat for the entire week. But there was some improvement on the charts....
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