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MATERIALS SPDR HITS NEW HIGH -- LEADERS ARE CENTURY ALUMINUM, FREEPORT MCMORAN, INTERNATIONAL PAPER, AND DOW CHEMICAL -- DR HORTON LEADS HOMEBUILDERS HIGHER -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR REACHES NEW HIGH -- S&P 500 IS CLOSE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MATERIALS SPDR HITS NEW RECORD ... Chart 1 shows the Materials Sector SPDR (XLB) surging to a record high. Equally impressive is that the fact that the XLB/SPX ratio (top of chart) has turned up as well. The XLB/SPX ratio has risen to the highest level in eighteen months...   READ MORE 

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Some Country ETF's To Watch If The Rest Of The World Starts To Out Perform The US

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The current status of the US versus the rest of the world * Europe * Asia * Latin America The current status of the US versus the rest of the world Earlier in the week I pointed out that the trend of superior performance by the US against the "rest of the...   READ MORE 

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10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IS BOUNCING OFF ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- DOLLAR INDEX ALSO BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT -- GOLD MARKET MEETS RESISTANCE -- DOW REMAINS FLAT -- STOCK/ BOND RATIO STILL FAVORS STOCKS -- UPTREND IN JUNK BONDS IS ALSO STRETCHED

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BOUNCES OFF 50-DAY AVERAGE ... The pullback in Treasury yields (coinciding with an oversold bounce in Treasury prices) may have run its course. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) bouncing sharply off its 50-day moving average. The two momentum indicators above Chart 1 are also supportive....   READ MORE 

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ALUMINUM, COPPER, AND STEEL STOCKS HAVE A STRONG DAY -- LEADERS ARE CENTURY ALUMINUM, SOUTHERN COPPER, NUCOR AND US STEEL -- THAT'S A POSITIVE SIGN FOR STOCKS AND NEGATIVE FOR BONDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CENTURY ALUMINUM LEADS THAT GROUP HIGHER... Aluminum stocks are leading a rally in the materials group. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones US Aluminum Index surging to the highest level in eighteen months. Chart 2 shows Century Aluminum (CENX) looking pretty much the same. Alcoa (AA) is also having a...   READ MORE 

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Is It Time To Emphasize Overseas Equities?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Gauging the trend between the US and the rest of the world * Relative performance of the US is largely dependent on the direction of the Dollar * Special K is close to a relative sell signal for the US * What does “The rest of the world” look like? * A few comments...   READ MORE 

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SMALL CAPS RECOVER FROM THURSDAY SELLOFF TO KEEP SIDEWAYS TRADING RANGE INTACT -- NASDAQ RISES TO NEW RECORDS -- AN HOURLY LOOK AT FOUR SECTORS THAT SHOW IMPROVEMENT -- BOND YIELDS PULL BACK TO SUPPORT AND ARE STILL IN UPTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL CAPS SURVIVE TEST OF SUPPORT... The stock market continues to trade sideways within the context of an overall uptrend. The fact that small caps stabilized at week's end is an encouraging sign (because they often lead larger stocks). At one point Thursday morning, the Russell 2000 iShares...   READ MORE 

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SMALL CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- S&P SHOWS NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE -- THAT INCREASES THE ODDS THAT THE DOW WON'T REACH 20K ON THIS ATTEMPT -- HEALTHCARE SPDR SELLS OFF ON TRUMP DRUG COMMENTS -- BUT HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS ANTHEM AND CIGNA LOOK STRONG

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SHORT-TERM MARKET TREND WEAKENS... It looks like the Dow probably won't reach the 20K on this attempt. That's because of weaker market action in other stock indexes. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) starting to roll over to the downside after touching...   READ MORE 

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FINDING THE RIGHT LONG-TERM TRENDLINE FOR THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD -- NEXT UPSIDE TARGET FOR THE 10-YEAR YIELD IS 3% -- 10-YEAR BOND PRICE IS BOUNCING FROM SHORT-TERM OVERSOLD CONDITION -- RELATIVE STRENGTH TREND STILL FAVORS TRANSPORTS OVER UTILITIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WHICH TRENDLINE IS BILL GROSS REFERRING TO... I've heard a lot this week about Bill Gross' prediction that a move by the 10-Year Treasury yield above 2.6% would end the secular bull market in bonds. Part of his reasoning is that a rise above 2.6%...   READ MORE 

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Is The Pound About To Head For Parity With The Dollar?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Long-term perspective * The short-term picture * The Pound against other major currencies * Watch that gold! Long-term perspective Last October, I wrote an article entitled “British Pound Headed For Par, But Not Now”. The long-term case rested on the fact that the Pound, when measured against the Dollar, had completed a 30-year...   READ MORE 

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DOW CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH 20K -- WHILE NASDAY CLOSES AT RECORD HIGH -- INTERNET INDEX TURNS UP WITH FANG STOCKS BACK IN FAVOR -- FACEBOOK, AMAZON, AND GOOGLE IMPROVE -- NETFLIX HITS NEW RECORD -- BIOTECHS HELP MAKE HEALTHCARE WEEK'S STRONGEST SECTOR

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW FLIRTS WITH 20K... Let's get this out of the way first. If you've been watching business TV, all they've been talking about is the Dow nearing the 20,000 level. Much to their dismay, it came close on Friday but couldn't...   READ MORE 

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Are Post Election Market Trends Starting To Reverse In 2017?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The long-term equity trend is bullish, but watch carefully * Short-term technicals for equities * Short-term technicals for yields and bond prices * Short-term technicals for the Dollar Index, Gold and Commodities The post-election trends I am referring to in the title refer but are not limited to, the five series plotted in...   READ MORE 

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OVER-EXTENDED TREASURY YIELDS PULL BACK -- DO DOES THE DOLLAR -- THAT'S BOOSTING GOLD AND GOLD MINERS -- WEAKER DOLLAR AND STRONG YUAN ALSO BOOST EMERGING MARKETS -- UPTREND IN FINANCIALS IS STALLING -- WHILE UTILITIES STRENGTHEN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD PULLS BACK ... After the steep ascent in Treasury bond yields since the November 8 election, it's not too surprising to them pulling back a bit. There are a couple of technical reasons for that. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield...   READ MORE 

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AUTOS LEAD CYCLICALS HIGHER -- AUTO LEADERS ARE GM, FORD, AND TESLA -- GENERAL MOTORS NEARS NEW RECORD -- CARMAX COMPLETES MAJOR BASING PATTERN -- TENNECO AUTOMOTIVE LEADS AUTO PARTS STOCKS HIGHER AFTER REACHING TWO-YEAR HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW JONES AUTO INDEX IS BREAKING OUT... For the first time in a long time, auto stocks are showing market leadership. I first wrote about the group in a December 1 message about autos leading consumer cyclicals higher. They're doing that again today. Chart 1 shows the Dow...   READ MORE 

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Three Charts That Suggest Dow 20,000 Will Happen Later Rather Than Sooner

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Signs of short-term exhaustion * Watch those housing ETF’s * Shanghai is down, but is it out? Even bull markets need to pause for breath as profits are digested and doubts sown concerning the validity of the prevailing trend. We may have come to such a moment. Signs of short-term exhaustion...   READ MORE 

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Yes, 20,000 Does Matter, But Not In The Way You Might Think

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Twenty thousand,  a media point on the charts * The real 20,000 event * International markets that deserve a closer look Twenty thousand,  a media point on the charts For some time, our friends in the media have been touting Dow 20,000 ($INDU) as if something magical is going to...   READ MORE 

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STOCK RALLY REMAINS STRETCHED -- AVERAGE DIRECTIONAL INDEX FOR THE DOW SIGNALS THAT RALLY IS VULNERABLE TO A SETBACK -- THE SAME IS TRUE FOR OTHER MARKET LEADERS -- THE 20,000 MILESTONE FOR THE DOW MAY BE PROMPTING SOME PROFIT-TAKING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ADX AND RSI LINES ISSUE WARNINGS... My last couple of messages have repeated the idea that the post-election stock rally looks stretched. Last Friday's message showed the stock/bond ratio, the value/growth ratio, and the transportation/utilities ratio also in overbought territory. Momentum and seasonal factors are...   READ MORE 

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Three Steps And A Stumble?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Three steps and a stumble * Interest rates are now driving the US Dollar * Charts for the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc continue to erode Three steps and a stumble The late great Edson Gould coined the term “Three Steps And A Stumble”. He was referring to his observation that when...   READ MORE 

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STOCK/BOND RATIO STILL FAVORS STOCKS BUT HAS GOTTEN OVERBOUGHT -- SO HAS THE VALUE/GROWTH RATIO -- AND THE TRANSPORTATION/UTILITY RATIO -- ALL OF WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE RECENT SURGE INTO STOCKS AND OUT OF BONDS MAY BE GETTING OVERDONE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK/BOND RATIO IS OVERBOUGHT... Several market messages over the past couple of months used relative strength ratios to paint a more bullish picture of the stock market, and a more bearish picture for bonds. While those ratios have strengthened considerably, especially since the election, I'm a little...   READ MORE 

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FED HIKES AS EXPECTED BUT SUGGESTS MORE TO COME IN 2017 -- BOND YIELDS CLIMB ALONG WITH THE DOLLAR -- GOLD AND RATE SENSITIVE STOCKS LOSE GROUND -- SO DO EMERGING MARKETS -- STOCK RALLY STALLS WHILE IN SHORT-TERM OVERBOUGHT CONDITION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FED OFFERS SLIGHTLY STEEPER PATH FOR 2017... The Fed surprised no one today one by raising short-term rates by a quarter of a point. It did, however, offer a steeper path for rate hikes in 2017. That may have caught more attention. Bond yields climbed which boosted bank stocks initially....   READ MORE 

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Are They About To Take The Punch Bowl Away From The Party?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Some key averages showing signs of temporary exhaustion * Energy burnt out? * Defensives and interest sensitives looking more positive * What about those bonds? I have been bullish on the stock market for some time and in terms of the main trend I still am.  I also council on focusing on the...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ 100 NEARS NEW RECORD -- IT'S BEING HELPED BY REBOUNDS IN APPLE, GOOGLE, AND INTEL -- ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX HITS 18-MONTH HIGH -- VANGUARD FOREIGN STOCK INDEX IS ALSO REBOUNDING -- TEN-YEAR YIELD NEARS CHALLENGE OF MID-2015 HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

POWERSHARES QQQ NEARS NEW RECORD... A lot has been made recently about domestic-oriented American businesses leading the market rally (like small caps, retailers, and transports to name a few). And how large tech stocks have gone from market leaders to market laggards. Technology companies derive nearly two-thirds of their earnings...   READ MORE 

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What Can We Learn From Recent Gold Price Action About Where Commodity Prices Are Headed?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Using Gold as a barometer for commodity prices * Gold versus other precious metals * Gold and the stock market Earlier in the week I wrote an article pointing out the fact that the Gold price ($GOLD), technically speaking, had reached, what seemed to me, to be a critical technical point. That...   READ MORE 

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EURO IS IN DANGER OF DROPPING TO 14-YEAR LOW -- THE FALLING EURO, HOWEVER, IS PUSHING EUROZONE STOCKS HIGHER -- THE WISDOMTREE EUROPE HEDGED EQUITY ETF OFFERS A WAY TO BUY EUROZONE STOCKS WITHOUT LOSING MONEY ON THE EURO

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EURO FALLS ON ECB... The ECB had some good and bad news for the Euro today. The ECB offered to extend its bond buying program for an additional nine months after next March. But it also announced that it was reducing the amount of bond purchases. The market interpreted the...   READ MORE 

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AUTO PARTS LEAD CYCLICALS HIGHER -- LEADERS INCLUDE BORGWARNER, MAGNA INTL, AND TENNOCO AUTOMOTIVE -- USED CAR DEALER CARMAX ALSO COMPLETES BASING PATTERN -- IT MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO BUY SOME AUTO STOCKS FOR CHRISTMAS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

AUTO PARTS INDEX TURNS UP... My message from last Thursday was headlined: "Autos Drive Cyclicals Higher". It showed an index of auto stocks achieving a bullish breakout led by GM and Ford. Auto parts are today's cyclical leaders. That shouldn't be surprising since they&...   READ MORE 

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The Next Two Months Will Be Critical For Gold

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Will the current short-term oversold level in Gold trigger a rally to reverse long-term bear signals? * Gold leads commodities * Gold breaks down against some commodities Will the current short-term oversold trigger a sufficient rally to reverse long-term bear signals? Earlier in the year $GOLD proved to be one of the...   READ MORE 

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AUTOS DRIVE CYCLICALS HIGHER -- GENERAL MOTORS HAS THE STRONGER PATTERN -- BUT FORD TURNS UP -- INDUSTRIAL LEADERS INCLUDE FLOWSERVE, DOVER, AND WW GRAINGER -- MONEY CONTINUES TO ROTATE OUT OF TECHNOLOGY INTO CHEAPER VALUE STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH ... One of the signs of growing strength behind the post-election stock market rally is that it's being led higher by economically-sensitive stocks like cyclicals and industrials. [We'll deal with industrials shortly]. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) finding...   READ MORE 

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Are We At The End Of The Trump Rally?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* A different way of looking at the VIX * What about global equities? * Sectors are largely pointing north * Are commodities about to break out? The market has been rising in an uninterrupted fashion since early November, on the back of a Trump election victory. The question naturally arises as to whether...   READ MORE 

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OPEC PRODUCTION CUT PUSHES OIL SHARPLY HIGHER -- ENERGY STOCKS LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- OIL SERVICES ETF ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- ENERGY LEADERS INCLUDE DEVON, MARATHON, AND MURPHY OIL -- RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST FINANCIALS WHILE UTILITIES FALL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

OIL SPIKES ON OPEC CUT... The agreement by OPEC to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day has pushed the price of crude $3 (7%) higher in today's trading. The spike in oil is giving a huge boost to energy stocks which are leading the...   READ MORE 

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BASE METALS INDEX HITS ANOTHER HIGH FOR THE YEAR -- SO DOES THE S&P 500 METALS & MINING SPDR -- STEEL LEADERS ARE AKSTEEL, CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, AND US STEEL -- RISING DOLLAR, RISING RATES, AND A STRONG STOCK MARKET ARE PUSHING GOLD LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INDUSTRIAL METALS CONTINUE TO CLIMB... The huge rally in industrial (base) metals continues. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (DBB) climbing to the highest level since mid-2015. The DBB reflects rising aluminum, copper, and zinc prices. Iron ore and steel prices are also surging in Chinese trading....   READ MORE 

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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR HITS NEW RECORD -- S&P 500 RETAIL SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT-- MATERIAL SPDR NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- COPPER AND STEEL STOCKS LEAD XLB HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETAILERS LEAD CYCLICALS TO NEW HIGHS... My message from last Monday wrote about apparel retailers leading retail stocks higher which were leading the cyclical sector higher. The same headline could be written again today. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) rising above its August high to a new...   READ MORE 

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CRUDE OIL JUMPS 4% ON HOPES FOR OPEC CUT -- ENERGY SPDR HITS NEW HIGH -- OIL SERVICES ETF MAY BE NEXT -- ENERGY AND MINERS LEAD CANADIAN STOCKS HIGHER -- HUDBAY MINERALS ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- SO DOES FREEPORT MCMORAN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CRUDE OIL CLIMBS ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGE... Renewed optimism for an OPEC output cut has pushed crude oil 4% higher in today's trading and has given a big boost to energy shares and the rest of the stock market. Chart 1 shows WTIC Light Crude oil rising above its...   READ MORE 

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Why Is A Strong Housing Report Is Good For The Stock Market

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Subdued response to great housing numbers is a bullish sign * What does this mean for housing stocks? * Housing conclusion * Small cap big profits? Subdued response to great housing numbers is a bullish sign Sometimes very important developments for the market receive widespread attention, quickly experiencing a swing in sentiment as...   READ MORE 

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THE 2-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IS ALSO RISING, BUT NOT AS FAST AS 10-YEAR YIELD -- TREASURY YIELDS ARE ALSO RISING FASTER THAN FOREIGN YIELDS -- THAT'S HELPING PUSH THE US DOLLAR INDEX TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN THIRTEEN YEARS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TWO-YEAR TREASURY YIELD ALSO HITS NEW 2016 HIGH... Most recent attention has been focused on the surge in the 10-Year Treasury yield to the highest level since last December (middle line in Chart 1). That's based on expectations for stronger economic growth and higher inflation. It's...   READ MORE 

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SOME MONEY FLOWING INTO FINANCIALS HAS COME OUT OF TECHNOLOGY -- INTERNET STOCKS MAY HAVE FOUND A BOTTOM -- TECHNOLOGY SPDR HOLDS CHART SUPPORT -- APPLE AND MICROSOFT ARE HOLDING UP -- ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES LEADS SEMICONDUCTORS HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SOME TECHNOLOGY WINNINGS WENT INTO FINANCIALS... A lot is being made of the fact that technology stocks have underperformed the broader market since last Tuesday's election. I suggested last week that technology selling was most likely a rotation out of some expensive technology stocks (mainly in the Internet)...   READ MORE 

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APPAREL RETAILERS LEAD CYCLICALS HIGHER -- RETAIL LEADERS ARE KOHLS, NORDSTOM, AND URBAN OUTFITTERS -- RAILS LEAD INDUSTRIAL SPDR HIGHER -- UNION PACIFIC AND NORTHERN SOUTHERN IN UPTRENDS -- TRANSPORTATION/INDUSTRIAL RATIO TURNS UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P RETAIL SPDR SURGES ... My last message on Thursday mentioned a rotation into discretionary sectors like retailers and out of defensive consumer staples. That rotation is looking even more impressive today as retail stocks are strong. Chart 1 shows the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT) surging nearly...   READ MORE 

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Why Is 1.75% So Critically Important?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* What’s the direction of the primary trend of interest rates? * What do the shorter-term maturities say? * Appraising the short-term technicals In early September, I wrote an article suggesting that things were beginning to fall in place for higher yields. Since then they have edged up a bit, but look...   READ MORE 

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DOW INDUSTRIALS AND TRANSPORTS ARE FINALLY IN SYNC -- TRANSPORTATION RALLY INCLUDES AIR FREIGHT, RAILS, AND TRUCKERS -- COPPER UPTREND ACCELERATES AS FREEPORT MCMORAN NEARS BULLISH BREAKOUT -- CYCLICAL STOCKS OUTPACE STAPLES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW THEORY LOOKS STRONG... Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading at a new record high today. That's a positive sign. But so is the fact that the Dow Transports achieved a bullish breakout on Monday. That puts both Dow Averages in sync on the upside for the...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS RALLY ON TRUMP VICTORY -- FINANCIALS, HEALTHCARE, INDUSTRIALS, MATERIALS, AND ENERGY HAVE BIG GAINS -- STOCKS TIED TO ALUMINUM, COPPER, STEEL, AND COAL SURGE -- 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SURGES ABOVE 2%

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS SURGE AFTER WEAK NIGHT... Today's strong stock market builds one surprise on top of another. The first surprise was a Trump victory. The second is today's sizable stock market gain. It was widely expected that a Trump victory would push stocks sharply lower. And it...   READ MORE 

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Monday Triggers A Dow Theory Buy Signal

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* A brief synopsis of Dow Theory * Transports could be explosive * Was there anything wrong with Monday’s rally? * Market remains short-term oversold * Good looking ETF’s Monday's explosion in prices sent the Dow Transports well above their previous intermediate high. This price action confirms the buy signal already...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS SURGE ON PRE-ELECTION FBI ANNOUNCEMENT AS SAFE HAVEN ASSETS SLIDE -- RISING DOLLAR HURTS GOLD -- MEXICO LEADS EMERGING MARKETS HIGHER -- RISING BASE METALS BOOST AUSSIE DOLLAR -- AIRLINES LEAD TRANSPORTS IN BULLISH BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FBI ANNOUNCEMENT CAUSES BIG RISK-ON DAY... The Sunday afternoon FBI announcement that it was ending its Hillary Clinton email investigation with no charges caused a huge risk- on trade the day before the presidential election. Stocks have surged as much as 2% around the world. A stronger dollar, and surging...   READ MORE