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SOME MONEY FLOWING INTO FINANCIALS HAS COME OUT OF TECHNOLOGY -- INTERNET STOCKS MAY HAVE FOUND A BOTTOM -- TECHNOLOGY SPDR HOLDS CHART SUPPORT -- APPLE AND MICROSOFT ARE HOLDING UP -- ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES LEADS SEMICONDUCTORS HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SOME TECHNOLOGY WINNINGS WENT INTO FINANCIALS... A lot is being made of the fact that technology stocks have underperformed the broader market since last Tuesday's election. I suggested last week that technology selling was most likely a rotation out of some expensive technology stocks (mainly in the Internet)...   READ MORE 

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APPAREL RETAILERS LEAD CYCLICALS HIGHER -- RETAIL LEADERS ARE KOHLS, NORDSTOM, AND URBAN OUTFITTERS -- RAILS LEAD INDUSTRIAL SPDR HIGHER -- UNION PACIFIC AND NORTHERN SOUTHERN IN UPTRENDS -- TRANSPORTATION/INDUSTRIAL RATIO TURNS UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P RETAIL SPDR SURGES ... My last message on Thursday mentioned a rotation into discretionary sectors like retailers and out of defensive consumer staples. That rotation is looking even more impressive today as retail stocks are strong. Chart 1 shows the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT) surging nearly...   READ MORE 

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Why Is 1.75% So Critically Important?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* What’s the direction of the primary trend of interest rates? * What do the shorter-term maturities say? * Appraising the short-term technicals In early September, I wrote an article suggesting that things were beginning to fall in place for higher yields. Since then they have edged up a bit, but look...   READ MORE 

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DOW INDUSTRIALS AND TRANSPORTS ARE FINALLY IN SYNC -- TRANSPORTATION RALLY INCLUDES AIR FREIGHT, RAILS, AND TRUCKERS -- COPPER UPTREND ACCELERATES AS FREEPORT MCMORAN NEARS BULLISH BREAKOUT -- CYCLICAL STOCKS OUTPACE STAPLES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW THEORY LOOKS STRONG... Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading at a new record high today. That's a positive sign. But so is the fact that the Dow Transports achieved a bullish breakout on Monday. That puts both Dow Averages in sync on the upside for the...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS RALLY ON TRUMP VICTORY -- FINANCIALS, HEALTHCARE, INDUSTRIALS, MATERIALS, AND ENERGY HAVE BIG GAINS -- STOCKS TIED TO ALUMINUM, COPPER, STEEL, AND COAL SURGE -- 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SURGES ABOVE 2%

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS SURGE AFTER WEAK NIGHT... Today's strong stock market builds one surprise on top of another. The first surprise was a Trump victory. The second is today's sizable stock market gain. It was widely expected that a Trump victory would push stocks sharply lower. And it...   READ MORE 

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Monday Triggers A Dow Theory Buy Signal

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* A brief synopsis of Dow Theory * Transports could be explosive * Was there anything wrong with Monday’s rally? * Market remains short-term oversold * Good looking ETF’s Monday's explosion in prices sent the Dow Transports well above their previous intermediate high. This price action confirms the buy signal already...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS SURGE ON PRE-ELECTION FBI ANNOUNCEMENT AS SAFE HAVEN ASSETS SLIDE -- RISING DOLLAR HURTS GOLD -- MEXICO LEADS EMERGING MARKETS HIGHER -- RISING BASE METALS BOOST AUSSIE DOLLAR -- AIRLINES LEAD TRANSPORTS IN BULLISH BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FBI ANNOUNCEMENT CAUSES BIG RISK-ON DAY... The Sunday afternoon FBI announcement that it was ending its Hillary Clinton email investigation with no charges caused a huge risk- on trade the day before the presidential election. Stocks have surged as much as 2% around the world. A stronger dollar, and surging...   READ MORE 

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Is It Time To Give Up On The Stock Market?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* What’s happening at the margin? * Short-term technical position oversold…but * Gold breaks out against bonds * Dollar showing weakness What’s happening at the margin? Last week I wrote an upbeat article pointing out that the stock market was oversold on a near-term basis as it approached a bullish seasonal...   READ MORE 

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RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST INSURERS WHILE HURTING REITS AND OTHER DIVIDEND PAYERS -- LINCOLN NATIONAL, METLIFE, AND PRUDENTIAL RISE ON STRONG EARNNGS -- RISING BOND YIELDS ARE HAVING A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON STOCK INDEXES WITH MOST SECTORS IN THE RED

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

LIFE INSURERS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER ... Rising bond yields continue to give a boost to financial stocks like life insurers. Bear in mind that premium income in insurance stocks is invested mostly in fixed income markets. Higher bond yields mean higher income. Life insurers are leading the financial sector higher today....   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 BREAKS CHART SUPPORT AS THE VIX SURGES -- FALLING DOLLAR PUSHES GOLD HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 BREAKS SUPPORT AS VIX SURGES... Election jitters are taking a toll on stocks. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 falling below its September/October lows to a four month low. All other major stock indexes are falling as well. That leaves the SPX in...   READ MORE 

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LONGER-DATED TREASURY BONDS LEAD FIXED INCOME MARKETS LOWER -- HIGH YIELD BONDS ARE MORE CLOSELY TIED TO STOCKS -- MONEY IS FLOWING INTO TIPS FOR INFLATION PROTECTION -- RISING COAL SHARES ARE ANOTHER SIGN OF A COMMODITY REVIVAL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MORE BOND CHARTS ... I've been writing about how the recent upturn in bond yields has been pushing bond prices lower (primarily due to rising commodity prices). Not all bond categories are falling at the same rate however. When inflationary pressures are starting to pull bond yields higher, longer...   READ MORE 

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RISING COMMODITY PRICES ARE PULLING BOND YIELDS HIGHER -- BASE METALS ETF HITS NEW HIGH FOR THE YEAR -- S&P METALS AND MINING ETF OUTPERFORMS -- STRONG GDP FAVORS ECONOMICALLY-SENSITIVE STOCKS OVER BONDS -- SO DOES RISING STOCK/BOND RATIO

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RISING COMMODITY PRICES ARE BOOSTING GLOBAL BOND YIELDS... I find it amusing listening to TV talking heads trying to explain why global bond yields have started to rise (pushing bond prices sharply lower). They don't seem to have noticed that commodity prices have risen more than 20% since...   READ MORE 

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Bullish Seasonals And A Near-Term Oversold Condition Argue For An Interesting November

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Seasonals are bullish * Current condition of some short-term indicators * The bullish part of the year * Time to raise those beta glasses? The stock  market has really been in a trading range for the last two years. At my bi-weekly webinar this week, I pointed out that several long-term indicators have...   READ MORE 

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RISING BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO BOOST BANKS AND INSURERS -- BANK ETF HITS NEW HIGH -- BANK LEADERS INCLUDE KEYCORP, HUNTINGTON BANKCORP, AND PNC -- INSURANCE LEADERS INCLUDE CHUBB AND HARTFORD FINANCIAL -- RISING RATES HURT REITS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO CLIMB... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield climbing again today after finding support along its 200-day moving average. Rising yields are giving the usual lift to financial shares, banks and insurers in particular. Chart 2 shows the S&P Bank SPDR (KBE) trading at...   READ MORE 

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RISING BASE METALS BOOST MINERS -- COPPER AND STEEL ETFS HAVE STRONG CHART PATTERNS -- MINING LEADERS INCLUDE BHP BILLITON, RIO TINTO, AND VALE -- SHANGHAI INDEX NEARS 2016 HIGH -- EMERGING MARKETS OUTPERFORM -- RISING DOLLAR LOOKS OVERBOUGHT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

POWERSHARES BASE METALS FUND JUMPS 2%... Base metal prices like iron ore and steel are seeing big gains in China. That strength is spilling over into aluminum, copper, nickel, and zinc. That's giving a big boost to global stocks tied to those commodities. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares...   READ MORE 

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Is The Price Of Gold Still In A Bull Market?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Long-term perspective * What are gold shares saying? * Gold and the dollar * Conclusion The question of whether gold is in a primary bull market keeps coming up in the Q & A part of my bi-weekly Tuesday webinars. Given the recent drop in the price, this question is becoming increasingly relevant....   READ MORE 

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STOCKS ARE BEING LED HIGHER BY ENERGY AND FINANCIALS -- OIL SERVICES ETF NEARS SUMMER HIGH -- HALLIBURTON AND SCHLUMBERGER ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUTS -- SO DO COMERICA AND REGIONS FINANCIAL WHICH ARE LEADING BANKS HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CRUDE OIL HITS FOUR-MONTH HIGH... The price of oil continues to rise. Chart 1 shows the United Stated Oil Fund (USO) climbing nearly 3% to reach the highest level in nearly four months. That's giving a big boost to energy shares which are leading the rest of the...   READ MORE 

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TREASURY BOND ETFS ARE TRYING TO BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- SO ARE RATE-SENSITIVE UTILITIES AND REITS -- CONSUMER CYCLICALS TRADE SIDEWAYS BUT UNDERPERFORM S&P 500 -- UNITEDHEALTH KEEPS XLV ABOVE 200-DAY LINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

20+YEAR TREASURY BOND ISHARES TEST 200-DAY AVERAGE... Before getting to rate-sensitive stocks ETFs that are testing their 200-day averages, it's necessary to first look at what Treasury ETFs are doing. That's because they've all been falling together. Chart 1 shows the 20-Year Treasury...   READ MORE 

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EARLY STOCK BOUNCE FADES --BOND YIELD CONTINUES TO CLIMB -- SO DOES THE DOLLAR

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK BOUNCE FADES AS YIELD CONTINUE TO RISE... A morning bounce in stocks faded by the end of the day. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ending the day at its low. That keeps stocks in a short-term downside correction and well below a falling 50-day average (blue...   READ MORE 

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If The Market Gets Liftoff, Which Sectors Are Likely To Lead?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* The long-term perspective * Short-term indicators partially bullish * Sectors offering positive relative action The Long-term perspective The US equity market has been moving sideways since July and has certainly worked off any short-term overbought condition. Some indicators are oversold, while others are still declining. During a bear market, these short-term indicators...   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS FOUR-MONTH HIGH -- RISING TWO-YEAR YIELD SUGGESTS RATE HIKE THIS YEAR -- HIGHER RATES PUSH DOLLAR TO SEVEN-MONTH HIGH -- THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER RATES AND STRONGER DOLLAR ARE PUSHING GLOBAL STOCKS LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLEARS 200-DAY LINE... Bond yields around the world continue to climb, led by U.S. Treasuries. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) climbing 4 basis points to 1.76% which is the highest level in four months. The TNX has also moved above its 200-day...   READ MORE 

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WTI CRUDE NEARS TEST OF NECKLINE -- BRENT TOUCHES ONE-YEAR HIGH -- ENERGY SPDR HITS NEW RECOVERY HIGH -- LED BY PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES AND HALLIBURTON -- OIL SERVICES ETF ALSO NEARS NECKLINE -- LEADERS INCLUDE NABORS AND HELMERICH & PAYNE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BRENT HITS ONE-YEAR HIGH -- WTIC IS CLOSE... The pledge of a joint Russian and Saudi agreement to limit oil output has pushed the commodity even higher, and has increased the odds of a major bottom being completed. Chart 1 shows the price of Light Crude Oil ($WTIC) gaining 3%...   READ MORE 

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British Pound Headed For Par, But Not Now

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Long-term technicals for the pound * Short-term technicals for the pound * TIP of the day! * The potential spoiler? Long-term technicals for the pound Chart 1 shows that the British Pound has completed a 30-year top. The price objective, calculated by taking the maximum depth of the formation and projecting it down...   READ MORE 

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THE JAPANESE YEN MAY BE PEAKING -- THAT WOULD BE GOOD FOR JAPANESE STOCKS WHICH MAY BE BOTTOMING -- THE WISDOM TREE JAPAN HEDGED EQUITY ETF OFFERS A WAY TO BUY JAPANESE STOCKS WITHOUT CURRENCY RISK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CURRENCY DIRECTION REALLY MATTERS IN JAPAN... My Tuesday message explained why foreign currency direction is important when investing in foreign stocks. That message showed why a falling British pound hurts American investors investing in U.K. stocks. Currency direction is also important when investing in Japanese stocks. Chart 1 is...   READ MORE 

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Commodities: On Your Mark, Get Set, Go?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Long-term picture at a critical juncture point * Global commodities poised for an upside breakout * What about commodities against other assets? * If commodities break out so will yields? Long-term picture at a critical juncture point Chart 1 shows the long-term technical position of the CRB Composite ($CRB), where you can see...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIAL SPDR CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- S&P BANK SPDR HITS NEW 2016 HIGH -- BANK BREAKOUTS ARE ACHIEVED BY COMERICA, SUNTRUST BANKS, AND REGIONS FINANCIAL -- FINANCIALS/ UTILITIES RATIO SCORES BULLISH BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIAL SPDR CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE... With bond yields on the rise, financial stocks are starting to show market leadership. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) rising above its 50-day average in today's trading. It's only the fourth sector SPDR to do that (after technology,...   READ MORE 

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TREASURY YIELDS CONTINUE TO RISE -- THAT'S HURTING UTILITIES AND OTHER DIVIDEND PAYERS -- WHILE GIVING FINANCIALS A BOOST -- RISING DOLLAR PUSHES GOLD AND MINERS SHARPLY LOWER -- BRITISH STOCKS HIT RECORD HIGHS -- BUT NOT IN DOLLAR TERMS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TREASURY YIELDS CONTINUE TO REBOUND... The continuing rebound in Treasury yields is helping some stock groups while hurting others. It's hurting dividend-paying stocks like staples, telecom, utilities, and REITs which continue to sell off. Rising rates are also boosting the dollar which is pushing gold and miners sharply...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIALS LEAD FRIDAY STOCK BOUNCE -- DEUTSCHE BANK LEADS EUROPEAN BANKS HIGHER -- BANK OF AMERICA AND CITIGROUP LEAD US BANKS -- TRANSPORTS ARE ON THE VERGE OF BULLISH BREAKOUT -- RAILS LIKE UNION PACIFIC AND CSX HAVE ALREADY TURNED UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DEUTCHE BANK BOUNCE SUPPORTS BANK STOCKS... In a reversal from yesterday, financial stocks are leading a Friday bounce in global stock markets. And, like yesterday, European banks are a big reason why. Concerns about contagion from Deutche Bank weakened bank shares yesterday. The daily bars in Chart 1, however, show...   READ MORE 

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1987 And Now

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Could it be 1987 deja-vu all over again? * Why it’s not 1987 * Conclusion A savvy subscriber to my monthly Intermarket Review sent me a copy of Chart 1 yesterday. Whenever he forwards me a relationship in chart format, it is usually pointing out a different conclusion than that set...   READ MORE 

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ENERGY STOCKS RISE WITH OIL -- RISING OIL MAY BE HURTING UTILITIES -- CYCLICALS CONTINUE TO GAIN ON STAPLES -- TRANSPORT/ UTILITY RATIO IS ALSO RISING -- EUROPEAN FINANCIALS ARE HOLDING EUROPE BACK -- FOOD PRICES REMAIN WEAK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

PROPOSED OPEC CUTS BOOST OIL AND ENERGY STOCKS... Yesterday's announcement of proposed production cuts by OPEC this November pushed the price of crude oil sharply higher along with energy shares. The daily bars in Chart 1 show WTIC Light Crude Oil (plotted through yesterday) trading above its 50-...   READ MORE 

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ANOTHER LOOK AT TRANSPORTATION STOCKS -- FEDEX TURNS UP -- UPS MAY BE NEXT -- MEXICO ISHARES BOUNCE OFF CHART SUPPORT -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY LINE -- CYCLICALS/STAPLES RATIO APPEARS TO BE BOTTOMING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRANSPORTATION ISHARES STILL LOOK POSITIVE... My market message from three weeks ago (Wednesday, September 7) showed Transportation iShares climbing to a five-month high. I took that as a sign that transportation stocks were on the verge of an upside breakout. A pullback in the transportation group since then has prevented...   READ MORE 

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Introducing The Special K Scan

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

Rationale for the Special K At my Chartcon presentation, I outlined the characteristics and uses of my Special K indicator and introduced a new advanced scan for identifying trading signals.  I’ll talk about that, as well as how you can set up such scans later, but first a rationale...   READ MORE 

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The Quiet Before The Storm?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Major stock averages are at major support * Stocks or bonds? * What about the rest of the world? * Inflation/deflation inter-asset relationships The media seems to be fixated with potential central bank action this week but the markets are barely able to keep their eyes open. This is becoming one-big-yawn! I...   READ MORE 

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RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST INVESTMENT SERVICE STOCKS AND LIFE INSURERS -- E*TRADE ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- AMERITRADE MAY BE NEXT -- PRUDENTIAL ALSO BREAKS OUT AS METLIFE CLEARS 200-DAY LINE -- STAPLES AND UTILITIES ARE OVERSOLD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TREASURY YIELDS CONTINUE TO CLIMB... I've been writing about the upturn in global bond yields, which has boosted Treasury bond yields. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield trading above 1.70% in today's trading. Foreign yields are bouncing as well. One of the side-effects of...   READ MORE 

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It May Be Time To Get Bullish Again

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Broadening formation is still bullish * What are the short-term indicators saying? * What are important intermarket relationships saying about the recent drop? * Is Dr. Copper about to make a house call? On balance, the stock market has dropped since early last week, but peripheral price action has been constructive. That leads...   READ MORE 

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ANOTHER JUMP IN TREASURY YIELD PUSHES GLOBAL BOND AND STOCK PRICES LOWER -- EMERGING MARKETS ARE TAKING THE BIGGEST FOREIGN HIT -- BOUNCING DOLLAR PUSHES COMMODITIES LOWER -- ENERGY IS BIGGEST SECTOR LOSER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ANOTHER JUMP IN BOND YIELD PUSHES BOND PRICES LOWER... Treasury yields continue to bounce which is pushing bond prices and stocks sharply lower. Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield jumping another six basis points to 1.73%. That's pushing bond prices lower. Chart 2 shows the 20+...   READ MORE 

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JUMP IN GLOBAL BOND YIELDS SENDS BOND AND STOCK PRICES SHARPLY LOWER -- LONG-TERM CHARTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BOTTOM IN TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD AND A BOND TOP -- S&P 500 FALLS BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE IN HEAVY TRADING -- VIX JUMPS 40% TO TWO -MONTH HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

JUMP IN BOND YIELDS WASN'T A BIG SURPRISE... This week's jump in bond yields started on Thursday when the ECB failed to extend its bond buying program. That helped push the 10-Year German bund yield into positive territory for the first time since July. UK bond...   READ MORE 

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The Case For Rising Rates Is Starting To Fall In Place

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

The long-term picture A couple of weeks ago I started to make the case for rising rates, based partly on the kind of price action featured in Chart 1. However, what was needed to reverse some of the longer term trends of falling yields and rising prices in the credit...   READ MORE 

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JUMP IN GLOBAL BOND YIELDS PUSHES STOCKS INTO DOWNSIDE CORRECTION -- TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS TWO-MONTH HIGH -- STOCKS ARE FALLING WITH BOND PRICES -- THE DOW AND S&P 500 SPDRS ARE BREAKING 50-DAY LINE IN HEAVY TRADING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLIMBS TO TWO-MONTH HIGH... The upturn in global bond yields that started Thursday on ECB inaction continues today. Bond yields are rising sharply around the globe (after hawkish comments from another Fed governor). Ten year yields in Germany and the UK are up 7 and 10 basis...   READ MORE 

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TREASURY BOND YIELDS JUMP ALONG WITH EUROPE ON ECB INACTION -- CRUDE OIL AND ENERGY SHARES JUMP ON PLUNGE IN OIL INVENTORIES -- RISING YIELDS SUPPORT FINANCIALS -- LEADERS ARE BANK OF AMERICA, PNC, MORGAN STANLEY, GOLDMAN SACHS, AND LINCOLN NATIONAL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TREASURY YIELDS FOLLOW EUROPE HIGHER... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) climbing six basis points to 1.60%. That followed a jump in European bond yields following the ECB failure to announce any additional monetary stimulus. That caused selling in European sovereign bonds, which led to selling here....   READ MORE