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EURO IS IN DANGER OF DROPPING TO 14-YEAR LOW -- THE FALLING EURO, HOWEVER, IS PUSHING EUROZONE STOCKS HIGHER -- THE WISDOMTREE EUROPE HEDGED EQUITY ETF OFFERS A WAY TO BUY EUROZONE STOCKS WITHOUT LOSING MONEY ON THE EURO
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EURO FALLS ON ECB... The ECB had some good and bad news for the Euro today. The ECB offered to extend its bond buying program for an additional nine months after next March. But it also announced that it was reducing the amount of bond purchases. The market interpreted the...
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AUTO PARTS LEAD CYCLICALS HIGHER -- LEADERS INCLUDE BORGWARNER, MAGNA INTL, AND TENNOCO AUTOMOTIVE -- USED CAR DEALER CARMAX ALSO COMPLETES BASING PATTERN -- IT MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO BUY SOME AUTO STOCKS FOR CHRISTMAS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
AUTO PARTS INDEX TURNS UP... My message from last Thursday was headlined: "Autos Drive Cyclicals Higher". It showed an index of auto stocks achieving a bullish breakout led by GM and Ford. Auto parts are today's cyclical leaders. That shouldn't be surprising since they&...
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The Next Two Months Will Be Critical For Gold
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Will the current short-term oversold level in Gold trigger a rally to reverse long-term bear signals?
* Gold leads commodities
* Gold breaks down against some commodities
Will the current short-term oversold trigger a sufficient rally to reverse long-term bear signals?
Earlier in the year $GOLD proved to be one of the...
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AUTOS DRIVE CYCLICALS HIGHER -- GENERAL MOTORS HAS THE STRONGER PATTERN -- BUT FORD TURNS UP -- INDUSTRIAL LEADERS INCLUDE FLOWSERVE, DOVER, AND WW GRAINGER -- MONEY CONTINUES TO ROTATE OUT OF TECHNOLOGY INTO CHEAPER VALUE STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH ... One of the signs of growing strength behind the post-election stock market rally is that it's being led higher by economically-sensitive stocks like cyclicals and industrials. [We'll deal with industrials shortly]. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) finding...
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Are We At The End Of The Trump Rally?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* A different way of looking at the VIX
* What about global equities?
* Sectors are largely pointing north
* Are commodities about to break out?
The market has been rising in an uninterrupted fashion since early November, on the back of a Trump election victory. The question naturally arises as to whether...
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OPEC PRODUCTION CUT PUSHES OIL SHARPLY HIGHER -- ENERGY STOCKS LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- OIL SERVICES ETF ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- ENERGY LEADERS INCLUDE DEVON, MARATHON, AND MURPHY OIL -- RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST FINANCIALS WHILE UTILITIES FALL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
OIL SPIKES ON OPEC CUT... The agreement by OPEC to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day has pushed the price of crude $3 (7%) higher in today's trading. The spike in oil is giving a huge boost to energy stocks which are leading the...
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BASE METALS INDEX HITS ANOTHER HIGH FOR THE YEAR -- SO DOES THE S&P 500 METALS & MINING SPDR -- STEEL LEADERS ARE AKSTEEL, CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, AND US STEEL -- RISING DOLLAR, RISING RATES, AND A STRONG STOCK MARKET ARE PUSHING GOLD LOWER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
INDUSTRIAL METALS CONTINUE TO CLIMB... The huge rally in industrial (base) metals continues. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (DBB) climbing to the highest level since mid-2015. The DBB reflects rising aluminum, copper, and zinc prices. Iron ore and steel prices are also surging in Chinese trading....
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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR HITS NEW RECORD -- S&P 500 RETAIL SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT-- MATERIAL SPDR NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- COPPER AND STEEL STOCKS LEAD XLB HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RETAILERS LEAD CYCLICALS TO NEW HIGHS... My message from last Monday wrote about apparel retailers leading retail stocks higher which were leading the cyclical sector higher. The same headline could be written again today. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) rising above its August high to a new...
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CRUDE OIL JUMPS 4% ON HOPES FOR OPEC CUT -- ENERGY SPDR HITS NEW HIGH -- OIL SERVICES ETF MAY BE NEXT -- ENERGY AND MINERS LEAD CANADIAN STOCKS HIGHER -- HUDBAY MINERALS ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- SO DOES FREEPORT MCMORAN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CRUDE OIL CLIMBS ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGE... Renewed optimism for an OPEC output cut has pushed crude oil 4% higher in today's trading and has given a big boost to energy shares and the rest of the stock market. Chart 1 shows WTIC Light Crude oil rising above its...
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Why Is A Strong Housing Report Is Good For The Stock Market
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Subdued response to great housing numbers is a bullish sign
* What does this mean for housing stocks?
* Housing conclusion
* Small cap big profits?
Subdued response to great housing numbers is a bullish sign
Sometimes very important developments for the market receive widespread attention, quickly experiencing a swing in sentiment as...
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THE 2-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IS ALSO RISING, BUT NOT AS FAST AS 10-YEAR YIELD -- TREASURY YIELDS ARE ALSO RISING FASTER THAN FOREIGN YIELDS -- THAT'S HELPING PUSH THE US DOLLAR INDEX TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN THIRTEEN YEARS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TWO-YEAR TREASURY YIELD ALSO HITS NEW 2016 HIGH... Most recent attention has been focused on the surge in the 10-Year Treasury yield to the highest level since last December (middle line in Chart 1). That's based on expectations for stronger economic growth and higher inflation. It's...
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SOME MONEY FLOWING INTO FINANCIALS HAS COME OUT OF TECHNOLOGY -- INTERNET STOCKS MAY HAVE FOUND A BOTTOM -- TECHNOLOGY SPDR HOLDS CHART SUPPORT -- APPLE AND MICROSOFT ARE HOLDING UP -- ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES LEADS SEMICONDUCTORS HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SOME TECHNOLOGY WINNINGS WENT INTO FINANCIALS... A lot is being made of the fact that technology stocks have underperformed the broader market since last Tuesday's election. I suggested last week that technology selling was most likely a rotation out of some expensive technology stocks (mainly in the Internet)...
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APPAREL RETAILERS LEAD CYCLICALS HIGHER -- RETAIL LEADERS ARE KOHLS, NORDSTOM, AND URBAN OUTFITTERS -- RAILS LEAD INDUSTRIAL SPDR HIGHER -- UNION PACIFIC AND NORTHERN SOUTHERN IN UPTRENDS -- TRANSPORTATION/INDUSTRIAL RATIO TURNS UP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P RETAIL SPDR SURGES ... My last message on Thursday mentioned a rotation into discretionary sectors like retailers and out of defensive consumer staples. That rotation is looking even more impressive today as retail stocks are strong. Chart 1 shows the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT) surging nearly...
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Why Is 1.75% So Critically Important?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* What’s the direction of the primary trend of interest rates?
* What do the shorter-term maturities say?
* Appraising the short-term technicals
In early September, I wrote an article suggesting that things were beginning to fall in place for higher yields. Since then they have edged up a bit, but look...
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DOW INDUSTRIALS AND TRANSPORTS ARE FINALLY IN SYNC -- TRANSPORTATION RALLY INCLUDES AIR FREIGHT, RAILS, AND TRUCKERS -- COPPER UPTREND ACCELERATES AS FREEPORT MCMORAN NEARS BULLISH BREAKOUT -- CYCLICAL STOCKS OUTPACE STAPLES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW THEORY LOOKS STRONG... Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading at a new record high today. That's a positive sign. But so is the fact that the Dow Transports achieved a bullish breakout on Monday. That puts both Dow Averages in sync on the upside for the...
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STOCKS RALLY ON TRUMP VICTORY -- FINANCIALS, HEALTHCARE, INDUSTRIALS, MATERIALS, AND ENERGY HAVE BIG GAINS -- STOCKS TIED TO ALUMINUM, COPPER, STEEL, AND COAL SURGE -- 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SURGES ABOVE 2%
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS SURGE AFTER WEAK NIGHT... Today's strong stock market builds one surprise on top of another. The first surprise was a Trump victory. The second is today's sizable stock market gain. It was widely expected that a Trump victory would push stocks sharply lower. And it...
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Monday Triggers A Dow Theory Buy Signal
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* A brief synopsis of Dow Theory
* Transports could be explosive
* Was there anything wrong with Monday’s rally?
* Market remains short-term oversold
* Good looking ETF’s
Monday's explosion in prices sent the Dow Transports well above their previous intermediate high. This price action confirms the buy signal already...
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STOCKS SURGE ON PRE-ELECTION FBI ANNOUNCEMENT AS SAFE HAVEN ASSETS SLIDE -- RISING DOLLAR HURTS GOLD -- MEXICO LEADS EMERGING MARKETS HIGHER -- RISING BASE METALS BOOST AUSSIE DOLLAR -- AIRLINES LEAD TRANSPORTS IN BULLISH BREAKOUT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FBI ANNOUNCEMENT CAUSES BIG RISK-ON DAY... The Sunday afternoon FBI announcement that it was ending its Hillary Clinton email investigation with no charges caused a huge risk- on trade the day before the presidential election. Stocks have surged as much as 2% around the world. A stronger dollar, and surging...
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Is It Time To Give Up On The Stock Market?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* What’s happening at the margin?
* Short-term technical position oversold…but
* Gold breaks out against bonds
* Dollar showing weakness
What’s happening at the margin?
Last week I wrote an upbeat article pointing out that the stock market was oversold on a near-term basis as it approached a bullish seasonal...
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RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST INSURERS WHILE HURTING REITS AND OTHER DIVIDEND PAYERS -- LINCOLN NATIONAL, METLIFE, AND PRUDENTIAL RISE ON STRONG EARNNGS -- RISING BOND YIELDS ARE HAVING A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON STOCK INDEXES WITH MOST SECTORS IN THE RED
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LIFE INSURERS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER ... Rising bond yields continue to give a boost to financial stocks like life insurers. Bear in mind that premium income in insurance stocks is invested mostly in fixed income markets. Higher bond yields mean higher income. Life insurers are leading the financial sector higher today....
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S&P 500 BREAKS CHART SUPPORT AS THE VIX SURGES -- FALLING DOLLAR PUSHES GOLD HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 BREAKS SUPPORT AS VIX SURGES... Election jitters are taking a toll on stocks. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 falling below its September/October lows to a four month low. All other major stock indexes are falling as well. That leaves the SPX in...
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LONGER-DATED TREASURY BONDS LEAD FIXED INCOME MARKETS LOWER -- HIGH YIELD BONDS ARE MORE CLOSELY TIED TO STOCKS -- MONEY IS FLOWING INTO TIPS FOR INFLATION PROTECTION -- RISING COAL SHARES ARE ANOTHER SIGN OF A COMMODITY REVIVAL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MORE BOND CHARTS ... I've been writing about how the recent upturn in bond yields has been pushing bond prices lower (primarily due to rising commodity prices). Not all bond categories are falling at the same rate however. When inflationary pressures are starting to pull bond yields higher, longer...
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RISING COMMODITY PRICES ARE PULLING BOND YIELDS HIGHER -- BASE METALS ETF HITS NEW HIGH FOR THE YEAR -- S&P METALS AND MINING ETF OUTPERFORMS -- STRONG GDP FAVORS ECONOMICALLY-SENSITIVE STOCKS OVER BONDS -- SO DOES RISING STOCK/BOND RATIO
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RISING COMMODITY PRICES ARE BOOSTING GLOBAL BOND YIELDS... I find it amusing listening to TV talking heads trying to explain why global bond yields have started to rise (pushing bond prices sharply lower). They don't seem to have noticed that commodity prices have risen more than 20% since...
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Bullish Seasonals And A Near-Term Oversold Condition Argue For An Interesting November
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Seasonals are bullish
* Current condition of some short-term indicators
* The bullish part of the year
* Time to raise those beta glasses?
The stock market has really been in a trading range for the last two years. At my bi-weekly webinar this week, I pointed out that several long-term indicators have...
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RISING BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO BOOST BANKS AND INSURERS -- BANK ETF HITS NEW HIGH -- BANK LEADERS INCLUDE KEYCORP, HUNTINGTON BANKCORP, AND PNC -- INSURANCE LEADERS INCLUDE CHUBB AND HARTFORD FINANCIAL -- RISING RATES HURT REITS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO CLIMB... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield climbing again today after finding support along its 200-day moving average. Rising yields are giving the usual lift to financial shares, banks and insurers in particular. Chart 2 shows the S&P Bank SPDR (KBE) trading at...
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RISING BASE METALS BOOST MINERS -- COPPER AND STEEL ETFS HAVE STRONG CHART PATTERNS -- MINING LEADERS INCLUDE BHP BILLITON, RIO TINTO, AND VALE -- SHANGHAI INDEX NEARS 2016 HIGH -- EMERGING MARKETS OUTPERFORM -- RISING DOLLAR LOOKS OVERBOUGHT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
POWERSHARES BASE METALS FUND JUMPS 2%... Base metal prices like iron ore and steel are seeing big gains in China. That strength is spilling over into aluminum, copper, nickel, and zinc. That's giving a big boost to global stocks tied to those commodities. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares...
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Is The Price Of Gold Still In A Bull Market?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Long-term perspective
* What are gold shares saying?
* Gold and the dollar
* Conclusion
The question of whether gold is in a primary bull market keeps coming up in the Q & A part of my bi-weekly Tuesday webinars. Given the recent drop in the price, this question is becoming increasingly relevant....
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STOCKS ARE BEING LED HIGHER BY ENERGY AND FINANCIALS -- OIL SERVICES ETF NEARS SUMMER HIGH -- HALLIBURTON AND SCHLUMBERGER ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUTS -- SO DO COMERICA AND REGIONS FINANCIAL WHICH ARE LEADING BANKS HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CRUDE OIL HITS FOUR-MONTH HIGH... The price of oil continues to rise. Chart 1 shows the United Stated Oil Fund (USO) climbing nearly 3% to reach the highest level in nearly four months. That's giving a big boost to energy shares which are leading the rest of the...
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TREASURY BOND ETFS ARE TRYING TO BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- SO ARE RATE-SENSITIVE UTILITIES AND REITS -- CONSUMER CYCLICALS TRADE SIDEWAYS BUT UNDERPERFORM S&P 500 -- UNITEDHEALTH KEEPS XLV ABOVE 200-DAY LINE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
20+YEAR TREASURY BOND ISHARES TEST 200-DAY AVERAGE... Before getting to rate-sensitive stocks ETFs that are testing their 200-day averages, it's necessary to first look at what Treasury ETFs are doing. That's because they've all been falling together. Chart 1 shows the 20-Year Treasury...
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EARLY STOCK BOUNCE FADES --BOND YIELD CONTINUES TO CLIMB -- SO DOES THE DOLLAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCK BOUNCE FADES AS YIELD CONTINUE TO RISE... A morning bounce in stocks faded by the end of the day. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ending the day at its low. That keeps stocks in a short-term downside correction and well below a falling 50-day average (blue...
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If The Market Gets Liftoff, Which Sectors Are Likely To Lead?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* The long-term perspective
* Short-term indicators partially bullish
* Sectors offering positive relative action
The Long-term perspective
The US equity market has been moving sideways since July and has certainly worked off any short-term overbought condition. Some indicators are oversold, while others are still declining. During a bear market, these short-term indicators...
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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS FOUR-MONTH HIGH -- RISING TWO-YEAR YIELD SUGGESTS RATE HIKE THIS YEAR -- HIGHER RATES PUSH DOLLAR TO SEVEN-MONTH HIGH -- THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER RATES AND STRONGER DOLLAR ARE PUSHING GLOBAL STOCKS LOWER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLEARS 200-DAY LINE... Bond yields around the world continue to climb, led by U.S. Treasuries. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) climbing 4 basis points to 1.76% which is the highest level in four months. The TNX has also moved above its 200-day...
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WTI CRUDE NEARS TEST OF NECKLINE -- BRENT TOUCHES ONE-YEAR HIGH -- ENERGY SPDR HITS NEW RECOVERY HIGH -- LED BY PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES AND HALLIBURTON -- OIL SERVICES ETF ALSO NEARS NECKLINE -- LEADERS INCLUDE NABORS AND HELMERICH & PAYNE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BRENT HITS ONE-YEAR HIGH -- WTIC IS CLOSE... The pledge of a joint Russian and Saudi agreement to limit oil output has pushed the commodity even higher, and has increased the odds of a major bottom being completed. Chart 1 shows the price of Light Crude Oil ($WTIC) gaining 3%...
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British Pound Headed For Par, But Not Now
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Long-term technicals for the pound
* Short-term technicals for the pound
* TIP of the day!
* The potential spoiler?
Long-term technicals for the pound
Chart 1 shows that the British Pound has completed a 30-year top. The price objective, calculated by taking the maximum depth of the formation and projecting it down...
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THE JAPANESE YEN MAY BE PEAKING -- THAT WOULD BE GOOD FOR JAPANESE STOCKS WHICH MAY BE BOTTOMING -- THE WISDOM TREE JAPAN HEDGED EQUITY ETF OFFERS A WAY TO BUY JAPANESE STOCKS WITHOUT CURRENCY RISK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CURRENCY DIRECTION REALLY MATTERS IN JAPAN... My Tuesday message explained why foreign currency direction is important when investing in foreign stocks. That message showed why a falling British pound hurts American investors investing in U.K. stocks. Currency direction is also important when investing in Japanese stocks. Chart 1 is...
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Commodities: On Your Mark, Get Set, Go?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Long-term picture at a critical juncture point
* Global commodities poised for an upside breakout
* What about commodities against other assets?
* If commodities break out so will yields?
Long-term picture at a critical juncture point
Chart 1 shows the long-term technical position of the CRB Composite ($CRB), where you can see...
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FINANCIAL SPDR CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- S&P BANK SPDR HITS NEW 2016 HIGH -- BANK BREAKOUTS ARE ACHIEVED BY COMERICA, SUNTRUST BANKS, AND REGIONS FINANCIAL -- FINANCIALS/ UTILITIES RATIO SCORES BULLISH BREAKOUT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCIAL SPDR CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE... With bond yields on the rise, financial stocks are starting to show market leadership. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) rising above its 50-day average in today's trading. It's only the fourth sector SPDR to do that (after technology,...
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TREASURY YIELDS CONTINUE TO RISE -- THAT'S HURTING UTILITIES AND OTHER DIVIDEND PAYERS -- WHILE GIVING FINANCIALS A BOOST -- RISING DOLLAR PUSHES GOLD AND MINERS SHARPLY LOWER -- BRITISH STOCKS HIT RECORD HIGHS -- BUT NOT IN DOLLAR TERMS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TREASURY YIELDS CONTINUE TO REBOUND... The continuing rebound in Treasury yields is helping some stock groups while hurting others. It's hurting dividend-paying stocks like staples, telecom, utilities, and REITs which continue to sell off. Rising rates are also boosting the dollar which is pushing gold and miners sharply...
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FINANCIALS LEAD FRIDAY STOCK BOUNCE -- DEUTSCHE BANK LEADS EUROPEAN BANKS HIGHER -- BANK OF AMERICA AND CITIGROUP LEAD US BANKS -- TRANSPORTS ARE ON THE VERGE OF BULLISH BREAKOUT -- RAILS LIKE UNION PACIFIC AND CSX HAVE ALREADY TURNED UP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DEUTCHE BANK BOUNCE SUPPORTS BANK STOCKS... In a reversal from yesterday, financial stocks are leading a Friday bounce in global stock markets. And, like yesterday, European banks are a big reason why. Concerns about contagion from Deutche Bank weakened bank shares yesterday. The daily bars in Chart 1, however, show...
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1987 And Now
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Could it be 1987 deja-vu all over again?
* Why it’s not 1987
* Conclusion
A savvy subscriber to my monthly Intermarket Review sent me a copy of Chart 1 yesterday. Whenever he forwards me a relationship in chart format, it is usually pointing out a different conclusion than that set...
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