KLA TENCOR IS SPX LEADER... Relative strength in an individual stock during a downside correction is a positive sign. Today, I'm looking at some individual stock leaders who also happen to be in groups that are also showing relative strength. KLAC Tencor (KLAC) is the day's... READ MORE
JAPANESE STOCKS BOUNCE OFF MAJOR SUPPORT LINE... Japan was the only country that didn't participate in yesterday's global stock rally. It's making up for that today in a big way. And at a good time. I've been showing a lot of global... READ MORE
EMERGING MARKETS BOUNCE OFF CHART SUPPORT... Within the exception of Japan, global stocks are bouncing nicely today. It started in Asia with a rebound in Chinese stocks. That gave a much needed boost to emerging markets. And it may be coming just in time. The monthly bars in Chart 1... READ MORE
BANKS BOUNCE OFF CHART SUPPORT... I've explained in previous messages that I lean toward the view that the stock market is in the midst of an overdue correction. It's been four years since the market saw a correction of more than 10%. That's much... READ MORE
WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE? ... There's a debate in professional circles as to whether the stock market is in a correction or a bear market. It makes a difference. Let's define what they are. A stock market "correction" is a drop of more than... READ MORE
* Right shoulder rally is a work in progress. * Dollar Index showing some technical cracks. * Gold breaks out against stocks. Last week I pointed out that the S&P 500 ($SPX), along with several other averages, had experienced a bullish exhaustion day. That fact, along with an excessively high reading... READ MORE
S&P 500 STALLS WELL BELOW SUPPORT BREAK... Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 with a big support break at 2040 and some serious volatility over the last two weeks. Notice that the index fell over 10% and then bounced with a 5+ percent surge back to... READ MORE
3 STRIKES AND A TREND CHANGE... Link for today's video. There has certainly been a lot of noise the last two weeks and this makes it a good time to look at some weekly charts for a little perspective. We will start with the S&P 500... READ MORE
CHINESE STOCKS REBOUND... Global stocks opened higher this morning from deeply oversold conditions. In many cases, those rebounds have also taken place from potential support levels. Chinese shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai jumped 3.6% and 5.3% respectively. That also relieved selling pressure around the globe. While it&... READ MORE
DOW TRIES TO HOLD LAST OCTOBER'S LOW... My Saturday message suggested that U.S. stock indexes could drop to last October lows; but that those lows should hold if this is just a market correction (and not a major top). Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trying to... READ MORE
* Monday’s action suggests a short-term rally is in the cards. * Action by the S&P 48-month ROC argues for a bear market. Catching a falling knife with your bear hands is never fun. Sorry, Freudian slip. Should be bare hands! I am not going to try to call... READ MORE
GRAY MONDAY REARS ITS UGLY HEAD... Stocks are in the midst of a global rout that is turning into another Black Monday - of sorts. So far, there have been three Black Mondays in stock market history. The first was on October 28th, 1929, when the Dow fell 13%. This... READ MORE
AN ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE ... My market message from July 9 offered my Elliott Wave analysis of the NYSE Composite Index. Chart 1 is an updated version of that view. The five red numerals show a five-wave advance from its 2011 bottom. My view was that the May peak in the... READ MORE
EW S&P 500 ETF CONFIRMS REVERSAL PATTERN... Programming Note: We are having technical difficulties with the screen recording software and there is no video today. I apologize and will get it fixed this weekend. The Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) is a good ETF to use... READ MORE
* McClellan Volume Model for NASDAQ goes bearish. * EEM breaks down from a major top. * Chinese equities are right on the brink. The last time I wrote about equities, two weeks ago, I pointed out the dearth of breadth. I also mentioned that following the end of the 'bullish end-of-the-month&... READ MORE
FTSE ALL WORLD INDEX FALLS TO SEVEN-MONTH LOW... Global stock selling is intensifying. Big losses are seen in developed and emerging markets in Asia, Europe, and the Americas. And more technical damage is being done. Chart 1 shows the FTSE All World Index (which includes the U.S.) falling below... READ MORE
EAFE ISHARES FALL BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE... The trend in global stocks continues to weaken. As usually happens sooner or later, weakness in foreign markets is starting to weigh more heavily on the U.S. Chart 1 shows EAFE iShares (EFA) falling below its 200-day today for the first time since... READ MORE
SMALL AND MID CAP ETFS BOUNCE WITHIN CORRECTIONS... Link for today's video. Small-caps have been the Achilles heel of the stock market by showing both relative and absolute weakness the last two months. Even with this poor performance, the decline in the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) over the... READ MORE
S&P 500 SPDR LOSES MOMENTUM... Link for today's video. Before getting too bearish on the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), chartists should keep in mind that this broad index ETF is trading above its rising 200-day SMA, the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day and... READ MORE
DOW GETS DEATH CROSS AS S&P 500 BREAKS 200-DAY... The major index ETFs were down in early trading on Wednesday with the finance, technology and consumer discretionary sectors leading the way lower. It is quite negative to see these key sectors leading on the way down. The Dow... READ MORE
REVIEW OF MAJOR INDEX ETFS (QQQ,SPY,IJR,MDY)... Click here for the webinar recording. The large-cap index ETFs continue to be tossed and turned within trading ranges, while the small and mid cap index ETFs remain in corrective mode. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY)... READ MORE
* Momentum indicators for commodities are turning up. * The Dollar Index has violated a small down trend line. The major averages have moved sideways over the last 12-months or so but under the surface a few sectors have managed to gain in price and some have lost considerable ground. Chart 1... READ MORE
SMALL-CAP ETF TESTS SUPPORT AGAIN... Link for today's video. I noted that the "average" stock is in correction mode in last week's Market Message and also showed the short-term downtrends in the small-cap, mid-cap and equal-weight ETFs. These short-term downtrends remain in play, but... READ MORE
AVERAGE STOCK IS CORRECTING... Link for today's video. As its names suggest, the Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) tells us what is happening to the average stock in the S&P 500. This is opposed to the S&P 500 SPDR, which is weighted... READ MORE
QQQ BREAKS SMALL WEDGE... Weakness in techs and small-caps weighed on the market Thursday. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) falling over 1% with a sharp decline late Thursday afternoon. The ETF is still in an uptrend overall, but today's decline broke wedge support for a... READ MORE
* Special K continues to point to lower stock prices. * Dollar looks set to break out on the upside. * Euro and yen denominated commodities at new lows. The market continues to move sideways, but under the surface things continue to deteriorate. For example, Chart 1 features a cumulative line derived from... READ MORE
SECTOR STALEMATE DEFINES TRADING RANGE... Click here for the Webinar recording. The S&P 500 and SPY are stuck in trading ranges because sector performance is split. Chartists can even see the market split at the industry group level as well. Looking at six-month performance for the 100+ Dow... READ MORE
TLT HITS MOMENT-OF-TRUTH WITH BIG WEEK ... Link for today's video. The first week of the month is always packed with economic reports and employment data, which makes it a big week for bonds. Bonds caught a bid over the last three weeks as the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF... READ MORE
SPY UPTREND CONTINUES TO HOLD... Link for today's video. By now we are all aware of deteriorating breadth on the NYSE and relative weakness in small-caps. We are also well aware of the trading range for the S&P 500 since March. The trading ranges for the... READ MORE
NYSE COMPOSITE FINDS SUPPORT AT MARCH LOW... I wrote a message three Thursdays ago (July 9) on Elliott Waves which suggested that the May high on the NYSE Composite Index had completed a major upwave from its 2011 bottom (Wave 3), and was entering a Wave 4 period of correction... READ MORE
FOUR SECTORS FOR FOCUS ... Click here for the webinar recording. The materials and energy sectors are weighing on the broader market with outsized losses, but the broader market is still holding up relatively well. PerfChart 1 shows the performance for RSP and the nine equal-weight sectors since the beginning of... READ MORE
MARKING KEY SUPPORT FOR BIOTECH ETFS... Link for today's video. Biotechs were star performers in 2012, 2013 and 2014. These stocks, and their respective ETFs, are also leading in 2015, even after last week's big decline. The Biotech iShares (IBB) and Biotech SPDR (XBI) are both... READ MORE
* NASDAQ, IWM and NYSE Composite face key tests early next week. * Confidence in the bond market about to snap? * Dow violates key bull market trendline. Market tops are not usually straight up and down affairs but typically experience a trading range separating the primary bull from the bear. During that... READ MORE
DOW ENDS BELOW 200-DAY LINE -- XLI FALLS TO NEW 2015 LOW... The stock market had a bad chart week. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrial Average closing well below its 200-day moving average and within striking distance of its July low. [Friday's drop marked the first "... READ MORE
UPTRENDS ARE UNDER THREAT, BUT NOT YET REVERSED... Link for today's video. The major stock indices are still in uptrends, but price action has flattened over the last few months. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 is still around 2% from its all time high, while the S&... READ MORE
FIVE SECTORS PULLING S&P 500 LOWER... There are ten major sectors in the S&P 500. Although five of them have held up relatively well, five others are in downtrends and dragging the market lower. Two of the worst sectors are tied to falling commodity prices. Chart... READ MORE
APPLE AND MICROSOFT PULL TECHNOLOGY SECTOR LOWER... Heavy selling in Apple and Microsoft is pulling the technology sector lower today. Chart 1 shows Apple (AAPL) gapping down in morning trading. Chart 2 shows Microsoft (MSFT) trading lower as well. Since those two are among the biggest stocks in the technology... READ MORE
* Dow diffusion indicator still on a buy signal. * Dow Jones Composite Index facing important technical challenge. * The reflation gold rallies in Euro and Yen are over. Long-term Background Last week at the webinar I came to the conclusion that enough short-term indicators were reversing from oversold readings to justify a... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDICES BIFURCATE ... Click here for the webinar recording. The stock market is still positive year-to-date, but we are starting to see some bifurcation in the major indices over the last few months. It is still not clear if these divergences will lead to a significant decline or if... READ MORE
QQQ HITS NEW HIGH, BUT BREADTH LAGS... After a nice vacation and some time away from the market, I am going to start of with the indicator tables for the major index ETFs and sectors to get a broad overview. Before looking at these tables, let's look at... READ MORE