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S&P 500 MAINTAINS ITS LONG-TERM UPTREND -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR ETFS TESTS KEY LEVEL -- MACY'S, NORDSTROM AND TJX LEAD RETAILERS HIGHER -- WHEN IS OVERSOLD REALLY OVERSOLD? -- USING PPO AND RSI FOR TO DEFINE OVERSOLD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 MAINTAINS ITS LONG-TERM UPTREND... Link for today's video. Even though the S&P Small-Cap 600 and S&P MidCap 400 are underperforming and have stalled for several months, the S&P 500 remains in a clear uptrend and over 50 points...
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SMALL CAPS TEST NECKLINE OF POSSIBLE H&S TOP -- MIDCAP INDEX IS IN DANGER OF BREAKING AUGUST LOW -- SO IS THE NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX -- THE U.S. IS BEING LED LOWER BY FOREIGN SHARES -- THE DOLLAR RALLY MAY BE JUST STARTING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL CAP HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP?... A debate is going on within the technical community as to whether or not the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index is in danger of completing a "head and shoulders top". A case can certainly made for it, although it would be an...
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SMALL CAPS BREAK SUPPORT -- MIDCAPS MAY BE NEXT -- DOW AND S&P 500 BREAK 50-DAY AVERAGES -- AIRLINES LEAD TRANSPORTS LOWER AS UTILITIES RALLY WITH BONDS -- EMERGING BONDS FALL ON RISING DOLLAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL CAPS FALL BELOW AUGUST LOW -- MIDCAPS MAY BE NEXT... Arthur Hill and myself have been warning of a potential breakdown in smaller stocks, and the potential damage that could do to the rest of the stock market. That situation has gotten even worse. Chart 1 shows the Russell...
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Silver Breaks to the Downside in a Big Way
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Negative divergences in the equity market continue to build.
* The rest of the world (EFA) completes a head and shoulders top.
* Credit spreads continue to deteriorate.
* Some commodity indexes break down in a major way, others hold fast.
US Equities
In our last issue my basic conclusion on equities was...
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UTILITIES SECTOR RETURNS TO THE LEADERBOARD -- APPLE, AT&T AND VERIZON HOLD STRONG -- SCANNING FOR RELATIVE STRENGTH -- BOEING, BERRY, CALLIDUS AND VEECO MAKE THE CUT -- WHEN TO SELL OR EXIT A POSITION
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
UTILITIES SECTOR RETURNS TO THE LEADERBOARD... Link for today's video. The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is leading the market over the last two days and its StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) is improving. Chart 1 shows XLU trading flat since April as it oscillated around the 42 level for several...
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DIA AND QQQ HOLD UP THE BEST -- RUSSELL 2000 VALUE UNDERPERFORMS GROWTH -- BIG BANKS LEAD, BUT REGIONAL BANKS LAG -- BIOTECHS REFUSE TO BUCKLE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DIA AND QQQ HOLD UP THE BEST... Link for today's video. Most of the major index ETFs broke below their mid September lows with sharp declines last week, but the Dow Diamonds (DIA) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) held these lows and show relative strength. The Dow...
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HOW FAR CAN THE S&P 500 CORRECT? -- NOTHING BULLISH ON SMALL-CAP CHART -- MID-CAPS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE -- 20+ YR T-BOND ETF BOUNCES OF KEY RETRACEMENT -- COMPARING THE 2011 DOLLAR SHOCK WITH 2014 (PERFCHART DEMO) -- OIL FIRMS WITHIN DOWNTREND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HOW FAR CAN THE S&P 500 CORRECT?... Link for today's video. The S&P 500 is down less than 3% from its all time high and still in a long-term uptrend. Even though this week's decline could extend, it would take a lot...
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GLOBAL STOCKS SELL OFF IN RISING VOLUME -- A LOT OF MOVING AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BROKEN -- HIGH YIELD BOND ETF BREAKS 200-DAY LINE -- FOREIGN STOCKS FALL AS WELL -- A RISING DOLLAR IS HURTING EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES AND STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NASDAQ AND S&P 500 BREAK 50-DAY LINES... Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 SPDRS closing below its 50-day line today in heavy trading. That's a negative combination. Chart 2 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index doing the same. Their daily MACD lines remain decidedly negative....
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Global Equities and Some US Averages are Just Above Critical Support - Video Version
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
This is the video version of the Market Roundup.
* Small cap stocks on the verge of a major breakdown.
* Gold shares violate important up trend line.
* Dollar Index due for a correction within a primary bull market.
Click here for the print version.
Good Luck and good charting,
Martin Pring...
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Global Equities and Some US Averages are Just Above Critical Support
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Small cap stocks on the verge of a major breakdown.
* Gold shares violate important up trend line.
* Dollar Index due for a correction within a primary bull market.
Click here for the video version.
For the last few weeks I have been pointing out the gradually deteriorating technical position but...
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FOREIGN STOCK ETFS ARE TESTING MAJOR OVERHEAD RESISTANCE BARRIERS WHICH COULD THREATEN GLOBAL RALLY -- THE % NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE HAS FALLEN TO 2014 LOW -- SMALL CAP RELATIVE WEAKNESS IS WORST IN THREE YEARS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
THE STOCK RALLY IS GETTING NARROWER... Arthur Hill wrote about the negative divergence between small and micap stocks relative to large cap stocks. Let's put that in some perspective. Chart 1 shows that the three stock categories have been rising together since the 2009 bottom (as they usually...
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SCANNING FOR PULLBACKS WITHIN AN UPTREND (LIVE DEMO) -- BIOGEN IDEC BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT -- CVR REFINING FIRMS IN FIBONACCI CLUSTER ZONE -- QLYS AND MON ALSO MAKE THE SCAN CUT -- FRENCH, GERMAN AND UK STOCKS MOVE SHARPLY LOWER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SCANNING FOR PULLBACKS WITHIN AN UPTREND... Link for today's video. As noted on Monday, stocks have weakened this month with small-caps leading the way lower. However, with most of the major indices hitting new highs recently, I still classify these declines as corrections within a bigger uptrend. I...
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SMALL-CAPS CONTINUE TO UNDERPERFORM -- MID-CAPS AND MICRO-CAPS ALSO LAG LARGE-CAPS -- THREE MOMENTUM ETFS BREAK LOWER BOLLINGER BANDS -- WATCHING THE BREAKOUTS IN FINANCE AND INDUSTRIALS -- STEEL STOCKS LEAD METALS AND MINING ETF LOWER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAPS CONTINUE TO UNDERPERFORM... Link for today's video. September continues to be a rough month for mid-caps, small-caps, micro-caps and some of the high-beta groups. Overall, we have a bifurcated market with relative strength in large-caps and relative weakness in the other caps. Don't forget that...
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SETTING A YEAREND TARGET FOR THE S&P 500 -- SMALL AND MID-CAP INDICES HOLD THEIR CHANNELS -- SEASONAL EVIDENCE FOR THE JANUARY EFFECT -- NAT GAS CONSOLIDATES WITHIN DOWNTREND -- FIRSTTRUST NATURAL GAS ETF HITS SUPPORT ZONE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SETTING A YEAREND TARGET FOR THE S&P 500... Link for today's video. The S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P Small-Cap 600 are all in uptrends, and the S&P 500 remains the clear leader. Even though one can...
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LIFE INSURERS AND INVESTMENT SERVICE STOCKS BENEFIT FROM RISING BOND YIELDS -- PRUDENTIAL AND GOLDMAN SACHS ACHIEVE UPSIDE BREAKOUTS -- THE WISDOM TREE JAPAN HEDGED ETF ACHIEVES NEW RECOVERY HIGH ON PLUNGING YEN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RISING RATES HELP INSURANCE PORTFOLIOS... Financial stocks are starting to show upside leadership at the same time that bond yields are starting to rise. Banks usually benefit from rising bond yields because they can charge higher rates for their loans. Two other financial groups have actually done better than banks...
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DOW INDUSTRIALS HIT NEW HIGHS -- BANKS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER -- LENNAR LEADS BIG BOUNCE IN HOMEBUILDERS -- RATE BOUNCE AFTER FED MEETING PUSHES DOLLAR HIGHER AND GOLD LOWER -- RISING SHORT-TERM RATES CAN BE GOOD FOR STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW INDUSTRIALS JOIN TRANSPORTS IN NEW HIGHS... Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports hitting another record high today, and remaining the strongest of the three Dow averages. Today's rally was led by rails and delivery services. Fedex gained 3.5% to lead the latter group higher. Chart 2...
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Five Year Yield Experiences Major Upside Breakout
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* - Brokers experience new bull market closing high.
* - NYSE stocks above their 200-day MA’s continue to shrink.
* - Canadian dollar experiences false break to the downside.
* - Commodities break to the downside. Could it be a whipsaw?
US Equities
Tuesday’s strong equity action could well be a...
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DOW AND S&P 100 HOLD UP THE BEST -- INDUSTRIAL SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH -- BANDWIDTH INDICATOR HITS NEW LOW FOR XLI -- 3M AND GENERAL ELECTRIC -- AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF PACES INDUSTRIALS -- ALLIANT TECH AND ROCKWELL COLLINS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW AND S&P 100 HOLD UP THE BEST... Link for today's video. After a big advance in August, stocks succumbed to some selling pressure in September. This selling pressure, however, has not been uniformly spread throughout the stock market. As noted in Monday's Market...
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SMALL-CAPS LEAD THE MARKET LOWER -- INTERNET ETF LEADS TECH SECTOR LOWER -- GOOGLE AND AMAZON SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- BIOTECHS AND SOLAR STOCKS LEAD MOMENTUM NAMES LOWER -- FINANCE SECTOR MOVES INTO SCTR TOP THREE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAPS LEAD THE MARKET LOWER ... Link for today's video. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) and the S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) are showing relative weakness in September and leading the current correction. There may be some debate on the term "correction" though. The S&...
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SWEDISH KRONA IS EUROPE'S WEAKEST CURRENCY -- FALLING COMMODITIES ALSO HURT AUSSIE AND CANADIAN DOLLARS -- TREASURY YIELDS ARE HIGHLY CORRELATED TO LOWER GERMAN YIELDS -- TREASURY YIELD JUMPS TO TWO-MONTH HIGH -- BOND ETFS HAVE WORST WEEK IN A YEAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MORE CURRENCY WEAKNESS... My mid-week message on the broadbased nature of the U.S. dollar rally showed a number of falling currencies, including the Euro, the Swiss franc, the British Pound, the Japanese yen, and the Canadian Dollar. Chart 1 adds two more. The blue line shows the Swedish Krona...
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MAJOR INDICES STILL CONSOLIDATING WITHIN UPTRENDS -- FINANCE AND TECH SECTORS HOLD NEAR HIGHS -- BANK OF AMERICA AND TYCO BREAK OUT -- RISING 10-YR BOOSTS BANKS AND HURTS REITS -- COPPER ETF REVERSES UPSWING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NIKKEI HITS SEVEN MONTH HIGH... Link for today's video. Despite some stalling over the last few weeks, the major stock indices remain in long-term uptrends. The S&P 500, S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index and the S&P 1500 all hit new highs in early...
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SHORT-TERM RATES REMAIN BELOW LONG-TERM RATES -- BUT THE GAP IS NARROWING -- THAT'S BEEN GOOD FOR STOCKS IN THE PAST -- RISING SHORT-TERM RATES ARE HELPING THE DOLLAR -- BUT ARE BEARISH FOR GOLD -- FALLING BULLION IS WEIGHING ON GOLD MINERS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT YIELD CURVE... My Wednesday message included a paragraph on the yield curve. One of the charts, however, overlaid the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields on the same chart. I was trying to show that short-term rates were rising, while long-term yields were dropping. That chart,...
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Interest Rates are Starting to Rally Across the Board (Video Version)
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
Click here for a written version of this article...
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Interest Rates are Starting to Rally Across the Board
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Equity market short-term momentum starting to roll over but not yet bearish.
* Dollar Index fails to respond to overbought short-term condition, which is a sign of a primary bull market.
* Gold experiencing very constructive sentiment but needs to confirm this with a break in the GLD above $130.
(Click here...
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DOLLAR RALLY IS BROADBASED -- SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE VOTE WEIGHS ON THE POUND -- DOLLAR INDEX APPEARS TO BE FORMING MAJOR BOTTOM -- THAT WOULD BE BAD FOR COMMODITIES, BUT GOOD FOR U.S. STOCKS -- DOW/GOLD RATIO HAS TURNED UP IN FAVOR OF STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOLLAR RALLY IS VERY BROADBASED... The U.S. Dollar has become the strongest currency in the world. Although a lot of the attention has focused on the plunge in the Euro, the fact is that all major currencies are falling against the dollar, as shown in Chart 1. Two of...
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A MOMENT OF TRUTH FOR SMALL-CAPS -- REGIONAL BANKS AND SMALL-CAPS FINANCIALS SWING HIGHER -- CYBER SECURITY STOCKS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- CHECK POINT SURGES TO NEW HIGHS -- PALO ALTO AND FORTINET LEAD SECURITY GROUP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
A MOMENT OF TRUTH FOR SMALL-CAPS... Link for today's video. Small-caps have been lagging large-caps for some time now, but the S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) and the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) have yet to break down and actually weigh on the stock market. Chart 1 shows...
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METALS & MINING SPDR FAILS TO HOLD BREAKOUT -- STEEL ETF TESTS CONSOLIDATION SUPPORT -- RETAIL SPDR STALLS AHEAD OF BIG REPORT -- SOLAR ETF, FIRST SOLAR AND SOLAR CITY HEAT UP -- OIL BREAKS TO NEW LOWS AND TAKES GASOLINE WITH IT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
METALS & MININGS SPDR FAILS TO HOLD BREAKOUT... Link for today's video. Metals and mining stocks are getting hit hard on Monday. Gold, silver and platinum were down around 1% in afternoon trading. Elsewhere, iron-ore prices hit five year lows this month. Overall, gold is trading some $600...
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UKRAINE CEASEFIRE BOOSTS RUSSIAN STOCKS -- AGGRESSIVE ECB ACTION ALSO BOOSTS EUROZONE STOCKS -- FALLING EURO UNDERMINES STOCK ETFS -- ALL THREE CHINESE INDEXES ARE NOW IN UPTRENDS -- DOW INDUSTRIALS ARE STILL TESTING SUMMER HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RUSSIAN RALLY HELPS EUROPEAN STOCKS... Expectations for a cease-fire in Ukraine gave a big boost to Russian stocks as well as European stocks closely tied to Russia. Chart 1 shows the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) climbing 6% during the week to close just above its 200-day moving average average....
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SPY EXTENDS LONG-TERM UPTREND -- SMALL-CAPS ARE DOWN, BUT NOT OUT -- XLF, XLK AND XLY STALL AFTER NEW HIGHS -- XLI FORMS BULLISH CONTINUATION PATTERN -- KEY BREADTH INDICATORS HIT NEW HIGHS -- ECONOMIC INDICATORS SHOW SERIOUS STRENGTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY CONTINUES TO LEAD AND TREND HIGHER... Link for today's video. Stocks stalled over the last two weeks, but the overall trends are up for the major index ETFs. Keep in mind that stocks were short-term overbought at the end of August because the S&P 500...
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Gold and Gold Shares Face an Important Test in the Next Few Days
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Short-term equity rally is still intact.
* Dollar Index experiences major upside breakout.
* Commodities experience a very favorable divergence but the DJP needs to break above $37 to confirm.
US Equities
Last week we talked about the fact that the S&P had broken out to new highs but that,...
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POSSIBLE UKRAINE CEASEFIRE LIFTS GLOBAL STOCKS -- RUSSIAN AND EUROPEAN STOCKS JUMP -- CHINA LEADS EMERGING MARKETS -- DOW INDUSTRIALS AND TRANSPORTS TEST OLD HIGHS -- RISING DOLLAR HURTS COMMODITIES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RUSSIAN STOCKS JUMP 5% ... News of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine has given a big boost to global stock markets. Nowhere is that more evident than in Russia. Chart 1 shows the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) jumping more than 5%. The Russian ETF needs to clear its mid-August peak...
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REGIONAL BANKS AND RUSSELL 2000 LEAD -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES FORMS A HIGH-TIGHT FLAG -- TOLL BROTHERS AND USG GO FOR BREAKOUTS -- GOLD HOLDS LONG-TERM BEARISH PATTERN -- YEN FOLLOWS EURO WITH A BREAK DOWN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
REGIONAL BANKS AND RUSSELL 2000 LEAD... Link for today's video. September trading has started with a bang for the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) and the Regional Bank SPDR (KRE). I am mentioning these two in the same sentence because financial services accounts for 24.19% of IWM and...
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RISING DOLLAR AND PLUNGING EURO REFLECT WEAKER ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN EUROPE -- FALLING EUROZONE BOND YIELDS PULL HIGHER-YIELDING TREASURY YIELDS LOWER AS DEFLATION THREAT WORSENS-- EUROZONE STOCKS ALSO WEAKEN ON UKRAINE TENSIONS AND LOWER RUSSIAN STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOLLAR INDEX REACHES 12-MONTH HIGH ... The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the U.S. Dollar Index now trading at the highest level in a year. Its upturn started in May and was followed by upside breakouts during July and August. The fact...
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SPY AND QQQ STALL ABOVE THEIR JULY HIGHS -- AMAZON, GOOGLE, QUALCOMM AND EBAY LAG -- GOOGLE DOES SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT THOUGH -- RUSSIAN INDEX REVERSES AT SUPPORT BREAK -- 20+ YR T-BOND ETF WHIPS UP ON SPY -- ONLY ONE COMMODITY GROUP SHOWS STRENGTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY AND QQQ STALL ABOVE THEIR JULY HIGHS... Link for today's video. Stocks took a breather this week as the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) moved sideways after a strong open on Monday morning. Considering the negative geopolitical news this week,...
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TALE OF TWO INDUSTRY GROUPS TODAY -- BIOTECHNOLOGY IS THE WILD WEST -- MID CAP AND SMALL CAP BIOTECHS ARE PERFORMING OK AS WELL -- CONDITIONS AROUND $GOLD ARE CHANGING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TALE OF TWO INDUSTRY GROUPS TODAY... Health Care continues to be a leading sector. Within healthcare, the Biotechnology sector is a rapidly changing field with huge medical advancements being made. There are currently 6 SCTR ranked large cap stocks that have really strong SCTR rankings and strong weekly charts in...
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US Dollar Index Tentatively Breaks Out from a Ten Year Base
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Short-term indicators still bullish for stocks.
* Growth (IVE) about to break out against value (IVW).
* Commodity market experiences bullish short-term divergence.
(Click here for a video version of this commentary.)
US Equities
The short-term indicators i.e. those monitoring trends that range from 3-6-weeks remain in a bullish mode and...
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US Dollar Index Tentatively Breaks Out from a Ten Year Base (Video Version)
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
Click here for a written version of this article....
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EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES HIT THREE-YEAR HIGH TO EXTEND BULLISH BREAKOUT -- EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES ARE ALSO HAVING A GOOD YEAR, ESPECIALLY AGAINST THE EURO -- HIGHER YIELDING EMERGING MARKET BONDS ARE ALSO RISING -- CHINA BREAKOUT IS A BULLISH SIGN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EMERGING MARKET ISHARES REACH THREE-YEAR HIGH ... The weekly bars in Chart 1 show Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) now trading at the highest level in three years. Just over a month ago, the EEM broke above its late 2012 high near 44.00. That bullish breakout bodes well for emerging market...
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RUSSELL 2000 ETF LAGS, BUT MAINTAINS BULLISH EDGE -- EQUAL-WEIGHT S&P 500 ETF HITS NEW HIGH -- OIL NEARS SUPPORT ZONE AND REMAINS OVERSOLD -- OIL & GAS EQUIP & SERVICES SPDR FIRMS NEAR KEY RETRACEMENT -- MERCK LEADS HEALTHCARE SPDR TO NEW HIGHS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RUSSELL 2000 ETF LAGS, BUT MAINTAINS BULLISH EDGE... There has been some concern that the Russell 2000 (small-caps) is lagging the Russell 1000 (large-caps). Relative weakness in small-caps detracts from a broad market advance because these stocks represent the appetite for risk and the high-beta end of the stock market....
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INDUSTRIALS, TECH AND DISCRETIONARY SECTORS HIT NEW HIGHS -- SHANGHAI COMPOSITE HOLDS BREAKOUT -- BOVESPA CONFIRMS MAJOR BULLISH REVERSAL PATTERN -- YEN BREAKDOWN IS POSITIVE FOR NIKKEI 225 -- JO PULLS BACK AFTER BIG SURGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
INDUSTRIALS, TECH AND DISCRETIONARY SECTORS HIT NEW HIGHS... Link for today's video. Stocks were broadly higher around midday on Monday with several major index ETFs hitting new highs. The Dow Diamonds, Nasdaq 100 ETF, S&P 500 SPDR and Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF hit new...
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