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OVERBOUGHT DIA AND QQQ ARE VULNERABLE TO CORRECTION -- TREASURY BOND ETFS BECOME SERIOUSLY OVERSOLD -- DOLLAR FIRMS WITHIN FALLING WEDGE PATTERN -- MEASURING THE 10YR-2YR SPREAD -- STEEPENING YIELD CURVE REFLECTS GROWING CONFIDENCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

OVERBOUGHT DIA AND QQQ ARE VULNERABLE TO CORRECTION... Link for todays video. The major index ETFs are in medium-term uptrends, but have become short-term overbought and vulnerable to a correction or consolidation. There are two ways to work off overbought conditions: trade sideways or pullback. Sometimes we see a combination...   READ MORE 

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S&P 100 HITS NEW HIGH ON LOW VOLUME -- SMALL AND MID-CAPS PERK UP -- STILL WAITING ON COPPER AND INDUSTRIAL METALS TO BREAK OUT -- SHANGHAI COMPOSITE ESTABLISHES KEY RESISTANCE -- ALL-ORDS, KOSPI AND SENSEX LEAD ASIA HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 100 HITS NEW HIGH ON LOW VOLUME... Link for todays video. The S&P 100 continues to lead the major indices with a break above its spring highs. Chart 1 shows $OEX surging some 12% since early June and exceeding 650 this week. Even though the...   READ MORE 

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SPY CONSOLIDATES NEAR APRIL HIGHS -- RUSSELL 2000 ETF FORMS TRIANGLE AND POSSIBLE RIGHT SHOULDER -- RISING WEDGE IN XLY DEFINES CURRENT UPTREND -- BULLISH WAVE COUNT SUGGEST FIFTH WAVE ADVANCE FOR XLF -- REGIONAL BANK SPDR HOLDS WEDGE BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY CONSOLIDATES NEAR APRIL HIGHS... Link for todays video. Stocks stalled over the last several days, but this is not necessarily a sign of weakness. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) moving above 140 on August 7th and then moving into a relatively tight consolidation. Ones...   READ MORE 

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S&P 100 CHALLENGES SPRING HIGH -- PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY SURGES -- NY AD LINE HITS NEW HIGH -- SILVER TESTS SUPPORT FROM 2011 LOWS -- GOLD EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION AS BANDWIDTH NARROWS -- DOLLAR CORRECTS, BUT REMAINS IN UPTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 100 CHALLENGES SPRING HIGHS... Link for todays video. S&P 100 is leading the market as it challenges its prior highs. Chart 1 shows the index hitting 645, which marks resistance from the April high. Given the strength of this uptrend, I would not consider the...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND S&P 500 NEAR SPRING HIGHS -- TECHNOLOGY SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH ON TWO TIMEFRAMES -- BROKEN RESISTANCE TURNS FIRST SUPPORT FOR XLK -- KBW BANK INDEX SPDR CHALLENGES RESISTANCE -- RETAIL SPDR BREAKS CHANNEL RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW AND S&P 500 NEAR SPRING HIGHS... Link for todays video. The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 continue to lead the market higher as they close in on their spring highs. Both are within 2% of their all time highs. The medium-term trends turned bullish with...   READ MORE 

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UPTURN IN BOND YIELD AND DOWNTURN IN PRICE SHOW MORE OPTIMISM -- SO DO RISING EURO AND WEAKER DOLLAR -- YEN WEAKENS AS MONEY FLOWS INTO AUSSIE AND CANADIAN DOLLARS -- CANADA ISHARES CLEAR 200-DAY AVERAGE -- FOREIGN STOCK BENCHMARKS TURN UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BONDS BREAK 50-DAY AVERAGE... For the first time in four months, bond yields are rising and bond prices falling. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year T-Note YIeld (TNX) trading above its 50-day average for the first time since early April. At the same time, the 20+Year Treasury Bond iShares (TLT)...   READ MORE 

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RUSSELL 2000 ETF SURGES OFF 200-DAY FOR SECOND TIME -- NASDAQ 100 ETF BREAKS ASCENDING TRIANGLE RESISTANCE -- FINANCE, CONSUMER DISC. AND SEMI ETFS CHALLENGE RESISTANCE -- 20+ YEAR T-BOND ETF BREAKS FLAG SUPPORT ON STRONG JOBS NUMBER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RUSSELL 2000 ETF SURGES OFF 200-DAY FOR SECOND TIME... Link for todays video. Stocks surged as the jobs number and ISM Services Index exceeded expectations. The Labor Department reported that the US economy added 163,000 jobs in July. This number was above the expectations for 100,000 and the...   READ MORE 

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WORLD STOCK INDEX PEAKED IN 2011 -- CANADA SHOWS BIG DIVERGENCE WITH U.S. -- ECB INACTION PUSHES EURO AND EMU STOCKS LOWER -- S&P 500 REMAINS ABOVE SUPPORT BUT WITH WEAKER MOMENTUM

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WORLD STOCK INDEX PEAKED IN 2011... My earlier message showed a rotation out of small cap stocks into mega-caps in the middle of 2011 which continues to this day. That suggests that investors have been growing increasingly defensive over the last year. Chart 1 provides graphic evidence that global stocks...   READ MORE 

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SPY CONTINUES TO STALL AT HIGH LEVELS -- S&P 500 EQUAL-WEIGHT ETF SHOWS SERIOUS RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- DOW TRANSPORTS LEAD THE MARKET LOWER -- UPS AND FEDEX WEIGH ON PRICE-WEIGHTED AVERAGE -- EURO STALLS AFTER SHORT SURGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY EXTENDS HIGH LEVEL STALL... Link for todays video. The Fed came and went, but stocks did not react much. There was a little volatility around announcement time, but stocks settled back into their narrow ranges of the last three days. In its policy statement, the Fed noted that economic...   READ MORE 

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SPY EXTENDS UPTREND AND ESTABLISHES KEY SUPPORT -- IWM FAILS TO CONFIRM HIGHER HIGH IN SPY -- XLF AND XLY BATTLE RESISTANCE -- QQQ AND SMH CHALLENGE JULY HIGHS -- NYSE AD LINE AND NET NEW HIGHS REMAIN STRONG

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY EXTENDS UPTREND AND ESTABLISHES KEY SUPPORT... Link for todays video. It is likely to be a big event-driven week for the market. In addition to over a dozen economic reports, the Fed makes its policy statement on Tuesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) meets on Thursday. The week...   READ MORE 

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EURO BOUNCES OFF MAJOR 120 SUPPORT -- WHILE EUROPEAN STOCKS NEED A STRONGER EURO, US STOCKS NEED A STRONGER EUROPE -- A RISING AUSSIE/YEN CROSS SHOWS MORE OPTIMISM

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

A LONGER TERM VIEW OF THE EURO... Since the Euro is the best barometer of problems in the eurozone, an analysis of the European currency is crucial to any analysis of markets in that region, and global stocks in general. That being the case, a chart analysis of the Euro...   READ MORE 

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EURO PLEDGE BOOSTS EUROPEAN STOCKS -- U.S. STOCK INDEXES BOUNCE OFF MOVING AVERAGE LINES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EURO GAPS HIGHER... A pledge from the ECB president to boost the Euro has caused a strong bid in that currency and European stocks. Chart 1 shows the Europe 350 iShares (IEV) gapping nearly 4% today on the news. That strong bounce has reversed the short-term damage done earlier in...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- IWM AND MDY BREAK 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGES -- NEW LOWS SURGE ON THE NYSE AND NASDAQ -- METALS & MINING SPDR BREAKS TO NEW LOW -- GOLD SURGES OFF LONG-TERM SUPPORT (NO BREAKOUT YET)

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS... Link for todays video. Chart 1 shows the performance for five major index ETFs since June 4th, which is when stocks started a seven week advance. By starting at this level, we can see which ETFs are holding most of their gains and which...   READ MORE 

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FOREIGN SHARES LEAD US MARKET LOWER -- PLUNGING EURO IS TESTING 2010 LOW -- WATCH OUT FOR NEW DOW THEORY SELL SIGNAL AS TRANSPORTS LEAD INDUSTRIALS LOWER -- CYCLICAL STOCKS ARE LEADING THE MARKET LOWER WHICH IS A NEGATIVE SIGN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

VANGUARD ALL-WORLD EX-US INDEX BREAKS SUPPORT... As has been the case since the spring, foreign shares are leading the U.S. stock market lower. More importantly, they've already broken below some short-term chart support. The Vanguard FTSE All-World Index (VEU) includes foreign developed and emerging markets. Chart 1...   READ MORE 

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DOW BACKS OFF 13000 FOR THE SECOND TIME -- RUSSELL 2000 BREAKS KEY SUPPORT -- FINANCE SPDR STARTS POSSIBLE WAVE 3 OF III -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ETF BUCKS THE TREND WITH PENNANT FORMATION -- GOLD AND SILVER ETFS FIRM WITHIN CONSOLIDATIONS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW BACKS OFF 13000 FOR THE SECOND TIME... Link for todays video. Stocks were down on Monday as European issues weighed on the market. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials hitting resistance just below 13000 for the second time this month. Resistance here is proving formidable and chartists should watch...   READ MORE 

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SPY REVERSES COURSE AFTER DOJI -- AD VOLUME LINES REVERSE NEAR BROKEN SUPPORT -- OFFENSIVE SECTORS LAGGING ON ONE AND THREE MONTH TIMEFRAMES -- PRICE RELATIVES BREAK DOWN FOR XLF AND XLY -- 7-10 YEAR T-BOND ETF NEARS HIGH ON FLIGHT TO SAFETY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY REVERSES COURSE AFTER LONG WHITE CANDLE AND DOJI... Link for todays video. After moving higher four of the last five days, stocks are taking a hit today as concerns in Europe bubble up. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) moving higher since early June and...   READ MORE 

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BUYING OF AUSSIE DOLLAR SHOWS MORE GLOBAL OPTIMISM -- AUSTRALIAN ISHARES ALSO HELP LEAD GLOBAL STOCK BOUNCE -- AUSSIE MARKETS ARE CLOSELY LINKED TO CHINA AND COMMODITY PRICES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR RALLIES... Currency trends often us something about the mood of global traders, and which way they're starting to lean. In the ongoing battle between "risk-on" and "risk-off" trades, one of the markets worth keeping an eye on is the Australian Dollar. For...   READ MORE 

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BIG TECHS LEAD MARKET HIGHER AS QQQ HOLDS UPTREND -- SEMICONDUCTORS AND NETWORKING STOCKS LEAD TECHS -- TXN AND INTC LEAD SEMIS -- CSCO AND QCOM POWER NETWORKERS -- FINANCE SECTOR AND REGIONAL BANKS LAG

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BIG TECHS LEAD MARKET HIGHER AS QQQ HOLDS UPTREND... Link for todays video. Stocks moved higher on Wednesday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) leading the way. Chart 1 shows QQQ surging over 1% with a move above 64. With the four day advance, QQQ formed a higher low to...   READ MORE 

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ADD MONSANTO TO LIST OF AG STOCKS BENEFITING FROM RISING GRAINS -- SPRINT NEXTEL LEADS TELECOM ISHARES HIGHER -- PLUNGE IN TRUCKING STOCKS SHOWS THAT DOW THEORY IS ALIVE AND WELL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MOSAIC REACHES FOUR-MONTH HIGH... A recent message (July 5) showed that rising grain prices owing to a midwest drought were driving up the price of fertilzier stocks. One of the stocks featured was Mosaic which is today's biggest gainer in the materials sector. Chart 1 shows Mosaic (MOS)...   READ MORE 

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TREASURIES SURGE AFTER RETAIL SALES REPORT -- 5-YR TREASURY YIELD HITS NEW LOW -- SPY HOLDS BOUNCE TO ESTABLISH KEY SUPPORT -- S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ETF CONTINUES TO UNDERPERFORM -- HONG KONG AND AUSTRALIAN INDICES BREAK DOWN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TREASURIES SURGE AFTER RETAIL SALES REPORT... Link for todays video. The commerce department reported that June retail sales dropped .5%, which was the third consecutive monthly decline. With analysts expecting a small increase, this was yet another key economic report that came in below expectations. A decline in retail sales...   READ MORE 

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RESIDENTIAL REITS HELP LEAD GROUP TO NEW HIGHS -- APARMENT REIT LEADERS INCLUDE AVALONBAY, CAMDEN PROPERTY, AND EQUITABLE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RESIDENTIAL REITS LEAD GROUP HIGHER... My Thursday message showed the Vanguard REIT VIPERS (VNQ) in the process of challenging its yearly high. Chart 1 shows the VNQ hitting a new record high on Friday. The rising relative strength ratio (above chart) show that REITS have been outperforming the S&...   READ MORE 

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A BIG SUPPORT TEST AT HAND FOR QQQ AND DIA -- MAKE-OR-BREAK TIME FOR THE CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR -- USO BREAKS PENNANT RESISTANCE -- XLE AND XES BREAK FLAG TREND LINES -- GOLD GETS ANOTHER BOUNCE OFF SUPPORT -- JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF TEST MAY LOW

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

A BIG SUPPORT TEST AT HAND FOR QQQ AND DIA... Link for todays video. A disparity has opened up among the major index ETFs. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) surged at the end of June and remains well above its late June low. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and Dow...   READ MORE 

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SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD TECHS LOWER -- INDIVIDUAL CHIP LOSERS INCLUDE INTEL, TXN, AND ALTERA -- BIG PHARMA CONTINUES TO RALLY -- MERCK IS HEALTHCARE LEADER -- TECH-DOMINATED NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET LOWER AND HEADS TOWARD 200-DAY LINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

REITS ARE BIG DIVIDEND PAYERS ... Last Tuesday's message focused on dividend paying stock groups that usually do better in a climate of falling bond yields and an uncertain stock market. Those groups included staples, healthcare, telecom, and utilities. Don't forget about Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS)...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS LEAD STOCKS LOWER AFTER FED MINUTES -- TECHNOLOGY SECTOR WEIGHS ON MARKET -- IBM, INTEL AND MICROSOFT LEAD LOWER -- INDUSTRIALS SPDR TESTS WEDGE TRENDLINE -- AIRLINE INDEX GETS A LIFT -- DELTA, JETBLUE AND SOUTHWEST LEAD AIRLINES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS LEAD STOCKS LOWER AFTER FED MINUTES... Link for todays video. Stocks treaded water most of the day and then got hit in the afternoon when the Fed minutes were released. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) falling below 79 and entering last weeks gap zone. A positive...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 FORMS BEARISH WEDGE -- RUSSELL 2000 EXCEEDS CHANNEL TRENDLINE -- TREASURIES HOLD SUPPORT AS 10-YEAR YIELD FAILS AT 1.7% -- TECHNOLOGY SPDR REVERSES AT KEY RETRACEMENT -- NETWORKING AND SEMICONDUCTOR ETFS FAIL AT JUNE HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 FORMS BEARISH WEDGE ... Link for todays video. Stocks fell sharply after payrolls rose less than expected. The Labor Department reported that June non-farm payrolls rose 80,000, which was well below the consensus forecast of 100,000. Non-farm payrolls were also revised down by 1000 for...   READ MORE 

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SURGING GRAIN PRICES PUT STRONG BID UNDER FERTILIZER STOCKS -- MOSAIC AND POTASH EXCEED 200-DAY LINES -- CF INDUSTRIES NEARS RECORD HIGH -- AGRIUM HITS 52-WEEK HIGH -- RYLAND IS LATEST HOMEBUILDER TO EXPERIENCE BULLISH BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CORN LEADS AG MARKETS HIGHER... Agricultural commodities have been on a tear over the last month. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Agricultural Fund (DBA) in a parabolic rise since mid-June. Most of that surge is coming from grain markets as the result of drought conditions in the midwest. Corn,...   READ MORE 

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STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, AND TELECOM ETFS HIT NEW HIGHS -- ALL THREE ARE DIVIDEND PAYING GROUPS WHICH HAVE STRONG APPEAL WITH BOND YIELDS AT RECORD LOWS -- THEY'RE ALSO DEFENIVE IN NATURE WHICH MAKE THEM ATTRACTIVE CHOICES FOR CONSERVATIVE STOCK INVESTORS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DEFENSIVE ETFS HIT NEW HIGHS... The stock market's short term outlook has improved since last Friday's latest Euro bailout. What has caught my attention, however, is that the strongest chart patterns still belong to defensive stock groups. Chart 1, for example, shows a new high by...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND S&P 500 HIT RESISTANCE AT MID JUNE HIGHS -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND RETAIL SDPRS STILL UNDERPERFORMING -- AD RATIOS SHOW HIGH DEGREE OF PARTICIPATION -- S&P 500 %ABOVE 50-DAY SMA REMAINS IN BEAR MODE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW AND S&P 500 HIT RESISTANCE AT MID JUNE HIGHS... Link for todays video. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials with a pattern similar to the October-December surge, only smaller. The Dow surged in October, corrected in November with a sharp pullback and then surged again at the...   READ MORE 

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HOME CONSTRUCTION ETF IS YEAR'S BIGGEST WINNER AND HAS ACHIEVED A BULLISH BREAKOUT -- LEADERS INCLUDE DHI, LENNAR, MERITAGE HOMES, AND TOLL BROTHERS -- RYLAND MAY BE NEXT -- S&P HOMEBUILDERS SPDR ALSO LOOKS STRONG -- USG CORP IS BUILDING MATERIAL LEADER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HOMEBUILDING ETF ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT ... The latest Euro rescue package announced on Friday caused a sharp upturn in risk assets at week's end. Global stocks and commodities soared, while bonds and the dollar fell. The Euro and most other foreign currencies surged. Arthur Hill covered Friday's...   READ MORE 

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EU AGREEMENTS PUSH SPANISH AND ITALIAN STOCKS HIGHER -- S&P 500 ESTABLISHES KEY SUPPORT LEVEL -- ELLIOTT WAVE PROJECTIONS FOR WAVE-C IN $SPX -- GOLD HOLDS SUPPORT WITH BIG SURGE -- SPOT LIGHT CRUDE BOUNCES OFF 2011 LOW

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EU AGREEMENTS PUSH SPANISH AND ITALIAN STOCKS HIGHER... Link for todays video. EU leaders delivered another grand announcement that moved markets all over the world. In short, EU leaders agreed to form a banking union in the future. They also agreed to support sovereign debt markets in Spain and Italy...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE SECTOR WEAKENS AFTER SUPREME COURT UPHOLDS OBAMACARE -- INSURERS FALL WHILE HOSPITAL OPERATORS SURGE -- S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF SUPPORT -- COMMODITIES SLUMP ON RISING DOLLAR -- BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO DECLINE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FALLING BOND YIELDS WEIGH ON STOCKS... Bond yields continue to drop. Chart 1 shows a downtrend line defining the last downleg in the 10-Year T-Note yield that started in mid-March. After consolidating throughout most of June, the TNX may be on the verge of falling even further. The hourly bars...   READ MORE 

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QQQ HITS ITS MOMENT-OF-TRUTH -- DOW TRANSPORTS BREAKS RISING WEDGE TRENDLINE -- DISSECTING THE INDUSTRY GROUPS IN THE INDUSTRIALS SECTOR -- TRUCKING INDEX BREAKS KEY SUPPORT LEVEL -- PORTUGAL VERSUS SPAIN PREVIEW

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQ HITS ITS MOMENT-OF-TRUTH ... Link for todays video. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) breaking below the lower trendline of a rising wedge. This break follows a failure near broken resistance and the 50-61.80% retracement zone. Rising wedges are typically bearish patterns that form as counter trend...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS PLUNGE AHEAD OF HEALTHCARE RULING AND EU SUMMIT -- COMPARING SPY MACD WITH OCTOBER 2011 -- DOLLAR AND TREASURIES SURGE IN FLIGHT TO SAFETY -- S&P 500 %ABOVE 150-DAY SMA ENTERS BATTLE ZONE -- ITALY AND FRANCE LEAD EU STOCKS LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS PLUNGE AHEAD OF HEALTHCARE RULING AND EU SUMMIT... Link for todays video. Technical analysts do not like to focus on the news, but there are two big events unfolding this week. While I do not know how these events will unfold, it is pretty safe to say that these...   READ MORE 

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SETTING DOWNSIDE TARGETS FOR S&P 500 AND THE DOW -- XLY FORMS BEARISH WEDGE AND HITS RESISTANCE -- SILVER TRUST TESTS 2011 LOW AS BASE METALS ETF BREAKS DOWN -- GOLD FAILS TO HOLD BREAKOUT AND SETS UP SUPPORT TEST

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SETTING DOWNSIDE TARGETS FOR S&P 500 AND THE DOW... Link for todays video. The European debt crisis has certainly dominated the news over the last few months and EU problems have been blamed for weakness in US equities. While EU woes may be partly to blame, I think...   READ MORE 

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BIG DROP IN FOREIGN STOCKS PULLS US MARKET LOWER -- DOLLAR BOUNCES AS COMMODITIES DROP -- STOCK INDEXES SLIP BACK BELOW 50--DAY LINES -- FED POLICY MAY ACTUALLY BE HURTING STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FOREIGN STOCK ETFS GAP LOWER ... Foreign stocks are having a really bad day. Chart 1 shows EAFE iShares (EFA) gapping 4% lower. In so doing, the EFA has left a potential "island reversal" top behind. [An island reversal is formed when an up gap is followed shortly by...   READ MORE 

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10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REMAINS BELOW SUPPORT BREAK -- S&P 500 STALLS AT KEY RETRACEMENT LEVEL -- OIL FALLS SHARPLY ON SUPPLY SURGE -- DOLLAR BULLISH ETF HITS SUPPORT FROM RETRACEMENT ZONE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REMAINS BELOW SUPPORT BREAK... Link for todays video. Noting recent weakness in the economy and disappointing employment growth, the Fed voted to extend operation twist until yearend. This means the Fed will sell treasuries with short maturities (three years or less) and buy treasuries with longer maturities...   READ MORE 

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JUNK BONDS JUMP WHILE TREASURIES LOOK TOPPY -- MAJOR STOCK INDEXES CLEAR 50-DAY AVERAGES -- FEDEX JUMPS 3% ON STRONG VOLUME -- FALLING DOLLAR TESTS MARCH PEAK -- COMMODITIES EXPERIENCE MINOR BOUNCE -- FED ANNOUNCEMENT TOMORROW MAY TEST STOCK RALLY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HIGH YIELD BOND ETF SURGES ... Action within the various bond categories show more optimism. Chart 1 shows the IBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG) surging to the highest level in a month. The HYG cleared its 50-day moving average last Thursday. Since junk bonds are highly correlated to stocks,...   READ MORE 

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TECHS LEAD HIGHER AS THE NASDAQ 100 ETF BREAKS RESISTANCE -- BROADCOM AND LINEAR TECH LIFT SEMIS -- AMAZON AND EBAY POWER INTERNET ETF -- RAILS AND TRUCKERS LEAD BIG MOVE IN DOW TRANSPORTS -- EUROPEAN STOCKS MOVE LOWER AFTER STRONG OPEN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TECHS LEAD HIGHER AS THE NASDAQ 100 ETF BREAKS RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. US stocks were mixed on Monday, but the technology sector showed some relative strength with good gains. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) forming an island reversal at the beginning of June, consolidating and...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ETF UNDERPERFORMING -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS OUTPERFORMING ON SPDR PERFCHART -- XLU AND XLP HIT 52-WEEK HIGHS AS XLV BREAKS RESISTANCE -- XLY, XLK, XLF AND XLI CONSOLIDATE WITH TRADING RANGES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 ETF TURNS INDECISIVE BELOW RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. The stock market is looking ahead to next week and the potential for more stimulus. It used to be stimulus first and market response second. Now it appears that the market is getting ahead of the curve...   READ MORE 

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FALLING BOND YIELDS WEIGH ON STOCKS -- WATCHING BOND ETFS FOR SIGNS OF A TURN -- ONLY 45% OF NYSE STOCKS REMAIN ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE -- USE THE SECTOR SUMMARY FEATURE TO DRILL DOWN INTO LEADING SECTORS TO FIND THEIR STRONGEST INDUSTRIES AND STOCK LEADERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FALLING BOND YIELDS WEIGH ON STOCKS... My Tuesday message showed falling commodity prices weighing on stock values. The same is true with Treasury bond yields which have fallen to record lows. Falling bond yields are symptomatic of economic weakness. Chart 1 compares the yield on the 10-Year T-Note (green bars)...   READ MORE