SILVER AND SILVER STOCKS OPEN LOWER ... As a follow-up to my earlier message on the likelihood that silver is peaking, the first three charts show silver assets opening lower today. The 15-minute bars in Chart 1 show Silver iShares trading below yesterday's intra-day low at 44.53. That... READ MORE
OVERBOUGHT SILVER REACHES 1980 PEAK ... We've been enthusiastically bullish on precious metals and silver in particular. The spectacular silver rally now looks dangerously overextended. In addition, it has reached its 1980 high at $50 as shown in Chart 1. The monthly RSI line shows silver to be at... READ MORE
SPY CHALLENGES NECKLINE RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. With last weeks surge back to the February highs, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has traced out an inverse head-and-shoulders. These patterns can form as continuation or reversal patterns. An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern after an extended advance is viewed as... READ MORE
TRIANGLE FORMATION IS BEARISH FOR THE DOLLAR... My market message from two Thursdays ago (April 7) showed a bearish triangle forming on the monthly chart of the US Dollar Index. Chart 1 is an updated version of that chart and shows the two converging trendlines that have been forming since... READ MORE
QQQ FOLLOWS THROUGH ON BIG HAMMER... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) followed Mondays hammer with a small gain on Tuesday and a big gap on Wednesday. This massive hammer was featured in Mondays Market Message. Techs led the charge on Wednesday with QQQ jumping over 2%... READ MORE
MARKETS MOVING BACK TOWARDS RISK-OFF TRADE... Link for todays video. The risk-off trade is making a comeback. A risk-on environment favors stocks, commodities (economic growth) and the Euro (debt stability). Conversely, a risk-off environment favors Treasuries (weak economy) and the Dollar (safety). Stocks and commodities perform poorly in a risk-off... READ MORE
RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN FINANCE AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY PRECEDED 2007 PEAK... Link for todays video. The performance of small-caps and the four offensive sectors is important to the health of the market. Small-caps represent domestic oriented companies that are more sensitive to the economy. The offensive sectors represent four distinct parts... READ MORE
THE SECTOR ROTATION MODEL ... My Tuesday message talked about how sectors rotate near market tops. I explained that market leadership by materials and energy (which carries inflationary expectations) is often a sign of market that's in need of a correction or a consolidation. I also explained that money... READ MORE
SPY GAPS LOWER TO FORGE ISLAND REVERSAL... Link for todays video. With a pair of opposing and overlapping gaps, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) formed an island reversal over the last few weeks. First, chart 1 shows the ETF gapping above 132 with a surge on March 30th.... READ MORE
DEFENSIVE ROTATION ... Last week's messages expounded on a number of intermarket themes, which included the "new normal" relationships among the four main asset classes (bonds, stocks, commodities, and currencies). We're seeing more of that today but in the opposite direction. Stocks and commodities are... READ MORE
SMALL-CAPS LEAD CORRECTIVE PHASE... Link for todays video. There are two ways to work off an overbought condition: pullback or consolidate. Actually, there is a third that is somewhere in between a pullback and a consolidation. Many indices and ETFs became overbought after the surge from mid March to early... READ MORE
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE SURGES ABOVE 111... Link for todays video. Weakness in the Dollar and strength in the stock market continue to support higher oil prices. John Murphy has spoken at length about the inverse relationship between commodities and the Dollar. This means one goes up when the other goes... READ MORE
EUROPEAN CURRENCIES RISE ON HIGHER RATES... As expected, the European central bank raised interest rates by a quarter point today for the first time in two years. Expectations for that hike (and maybe more to come) have helped boost the Euro against the U.S. Dollar over the past few... READ MORE
CHAIKIN MONEY FLOW REMAINS NEGATIVE TO SPY... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) remains in an uptrend overall and is currently challenging the February highs. Chart 1 shows the ETF gapping above 132 and forming six indecisive candlesticks the last six days. Indecisive candlesticks have... READ MORE
GOLD HITS NEW RECORD ... Gold prices are surging to new record high today which is erasing the short-term setback of a couple of weeks ago. Chart 1 shows the Gold Trust Shares (GLD) breaking decisively through its late 2010 highs on rising volume. And, as usual, silver is leading it... READ MORE
INTERMARKET REVIEW... Over the weekend, Chip Anderson reviewed the Intermarket Picture based on the "normal" relationships that have worked for decades in the financial markets. Some of them, however, have changed in recent years (as we've pointed out in our market messages). Those intermarket changes, and... READ MORE
SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDRS BREAK CHANNEL SUPPORT... Link for todays video. The Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) continues to show relative weakness with a short-term support break over the last two days. Chart 1 shows SMH forming a rising channel as it retraced 62% of the prior decline. The ETF hit resistance at this... READ MORE
DOW INDUSTRIALS AND TRANSPORTS EXCEED FEBRUARY HIGHS... Link for todays video. With the surge over the last two weeks, the Dow Industrials moved back above its February high to record a new 52-week high on Friday. Chart 1 shows the mid March reversal around 11600 establishing a key reaction low... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS JUMP ... This morning's March jobs numbers reported U.S. payrolls jumping by 218,000 which was higher than estimates. In addition, the unemployment rate declined to a two-year low of 8.8%. The result is a jump in stock futures which points to a higher open... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 ETF EXCEEDS FEBRUARY HIGH... Link for todays video. Small-caps continue to show relative strength as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) became the first major index ETF to break its February high. The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) is next in line as it trades near its February high. The... READ MORE
SOUTH KOREA LEADS EMERGING MARKETS HIGHER... Last week's upside breakout in emerging markets is still holding. Chart 1 shows Emerging Market iShares (black line) having risen to a new three-month high. The strongest component in that group is Korea iShares (red line) which is nearing its February high.... READ MORE
BOND ETF TESTS NECKLINE BREAKOUT... Link for todays video. The 20+ year Bond ETF (TLT) surged above neckline resistance in mid March, but pulled back as stocks rallied over the last several days. The inverse head-and-shoulders breakout remains in play as broken resistance turns into the first support level to... READ MORE
SMALL-CAPS LEAD THE MARKET HIGHER... Link for todays video. Small-caps led the surge on Monday and are at it again on Friday with another show of relative strength. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) surging over 35% from late August to late February. This move was pretty much... READ MORE
GOLD CLOSES LOWER... My earlier message showed the Gold Trust (GLD) trading at a new record high. By day's end, however, both gold and silver experienced profit-taking. Chart 1 shows GLD closing lower on rising volume (silver did the same). Chart 2 shows the Market Vectors Gold Miners... READ MORE
GOLD HITS RECORD HIGH... Gold prices are hitting a new record today as shown in Chart 1. That shouldn't come as a surprise to readers of our increasingly bullish commentaries on precious metals over the last month. The line above Chart 1 shows silver prices having already risen... READ MORE
GOLD ETF SURGES TO RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. With a surge above 140, the Gold SPDR (GLD) is challenging resistance from its March highs and the ETF is poised to hit a new all time high. Chart 1 shows the Gold SPDR advancing 3% the last six days. The... READ MORE
RISING INFLATION PUSHES POUND HIGHER... The latest British CPI report came in much higher than expected and increased pressure for a British rate boost. That pushed the British Pound to the highest level against the U.S. Dollar in more than a year (Chart 1). The Euro may be next.... READ MORE
SMALL-CAPS LEAD BROAD BOUNCE... Link for todays video. Stocks moved broadly higher on Monday with small-caps leading the way. The major index ETFs were up 1.5% or more on the day. All nine sector SPDRs moved higher with energy and materials leading the charge. Chart 1 shows the Russell... READ MORE
CURRENCY INTERVENTION PUSHES YEN SHARPLY LOWER... Link for todays video. For the first time since propping up the Euro in 2000, the G-7 intervened in the currency markets to push the Yen lower. So far it is working. The Yen surged because many Japanese companies are expected to repatriate money... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX DROPS TO THREE-YEAR LOW... Traders continue to sell the U.S. Dollar. In yesterday's trading, the dollar fell to a 20-year low against the Japanese yen. Today, it's falling against everything else. More importantly, the greenback is breaking important support levels. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
FINANCE AND TECHNOLOGY LEAD MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. Stocks came under selling pressure again on Wednesday. All sectors were down with finance and technology leading the way. Chart 1 shows the Finance SPDR (XLF) breaking the support zone in the 16.25 area with a sharp decline the... READ MORE
JAPAN STOCKS LEAD WORLD LOWER... More shocks coming from Japan continue to unsettle global markets. A 10% plunge in Japanese shares has led other global stock markets lower around the world. Commodity prices are coming under pressure as well. Even precious metals are selling off. Treasury bonds are the day&... READ MORE
QQQQ STALLS NEAR JANUARY-FEBRUARY SUPPORT ... Link for todays video. After a three-prong decline from 59 to 56, chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) finding support with a bullish engulfing on Friday and indecision on Monday. Support in the 55.5-56 zone stems from the late January lows and... READ MORE
RETAIL SPDR FORMS PENNANT CONSOLIDATION... Link for todays video. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales increased 1% in February for the eighth straight monthly gain. Not a bad streak at all. On a monthly basis, the Retail SPDR (XRT) has risen 6 of the last 8 months (March excluded)... READ MORE
LONG-TERM CHARTS SHOWED OVERBOUGHT CONDITION ... Today's sharp selloff in stocks and commodities certainly suggests that the market has entered into a downside correction. The number of 50-day moving averages being broken by most global stocks indexes (including those in the U.S.) has given the first short-term sell... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCKS LEAD THE DECLINE... Stock selling started in foreign markets and is spilling over to the U.S. For the first time in months, a number of 50-day averages are being broken which isn't a good sign. Chart 1 shows Emerging Market iShares (EEM) falling back below... READ MORE
TECHS, INDUSTRIALS AND FINANCE LAG FOR FOUR WEEKS... Link for todays video. The technology, industrials and finance sectors led the market higher to start the year, but these four turned into laggards the last four weeks. The first S&P Sector PerfChart shows the nine sector SPDRs and the... READ MORE
NEW INTEREST IN DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS... I wrote a Janury 13 message entitled: "DIVIDEND APPRECIATION ETFS OFFER CONSERVATIVE ENTRY FOR NERVOUS BOND HOLDERS". Two such ETFS that I showed were Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) and the DJ Dividend Index iShares (DVY). As I explained in that earlier piece,... READ MORE
LARGE-TECHS AND SMALL-CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) led the major index ETFs lower on Monday. Chart 1 shows QQQQ meeting resistance from the 22-February gap over the last two weeks. The ETF gapped up and closed above... READ MORE
S&P 500 ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS - A BIG IMPULSE WAVE HIGHER ... Link for todays video. Even though there is no real change to the Elliott Wave counts put forth on January 21st, a few readers have been asking for an update so now is a good time for... READ MORE