David Keller

David Keller


David is President and Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research LLC, where he helps active investors make better decisions using behavioral finance and technical analysis. He is a former President of the CMT Association. Learn More 

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Avoiding Confirmation Bias: Four Paths for the S&P 500 Into March

As volatility picks up, the S&P 500 sits in a crucial neutral zone. Dave Keller, CMT, uses probabilistic analysis to outline four possible paths for the index into late March—from a renewed bull run to a deeper correction—helping investors prepare for multiple outcomes....   READ MORE 

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AMD Earnings Fallout: What a Break Below $200 Would Really Mean

After a sharp post-earnings drop, AMD remains locked in a multi-month consolidation between $200 and $265. Dave Keller, CMT, breaks down how accumulation, distribution, and consolidation phases form, along with what price levels would confirm a decisive bearish shift....   READ MORE 

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AMD Case Study: Trend Phases, Earnings Risk, and the “Nothing Burger” Range

AMD Case Study: Trend Phases, Earnings Risk, and the “Nothing Burger” Range

Not sure if a stock is breaking out or topping out? Dave Keller, CMT, uses AMD to explain trend phases and how StockCharts tools help investors manage risk and avoid emotional decisions....   READ MORE 

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Beyond the Bull Market: Three Charts Still Showing Technical Strength

Beyond the Bull Market: Three Charts Still Showing Technical Strength

As former market leaders stumble, opportunity still exists for disciplined chart watchers. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights three constructive technical setups—Walmart, CVS Health, and Comcast—that demonstrate how strength, support, and breakouts can emerge even in a choppier market environment....   READ MORE 

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Top 10 Charts Revealed -- February 2026 Market Shifts

Top 10 Charts Revealed -- February 2026 Market Shifts

Grayson Roze and Dave Keller break down the top 10 charts to watch for February, exposing where leadership is changing and where new strength is emerging. From rotation across sectors to key breakouts and bottoming patterns, these charts highlight what’s actually driving the market right now....   READ MORE 

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Failed Breakouts: How to Spot Them, Manage Risk, and Stay with Strong Charts

Failed Breakouts: How to Spot Them, Manage Risk, and Stay with Strong Charts

Markets are feeling uncertain as earnings season unfolds and the Fed meeting approaches, yet overall trends remain surprisingly strong. This week, Dave Keller explores the concept of failed breakouts and why managing risk is just as important as identifying new opportunities....   READ MORE 

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What RSI Is Really Saying About GOOGL, GS, and AAPL

The Relative Strength Index can reveal far more than overbought and oversold levels. Dave Keller, CMT, analyzes RSI structures in GOOGL, GS, and AAPL to show how momentum confirms strong uptrends, warns of divergences, and signals full trend breakdowns....   READ MORE 

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RSI Signals Most Traders Misread — Overbought Levels & Divergences That Matter

RSI Signals Most Traders Misread — Overbought Levels & Divergences That Matter

Dave Keller breaks down RSI signals that many traders misread, including overbought conditions and bearish divergences. Using real chart examples, he explains which RSI signals actually matter as momentum shifts....   READ MORE 

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Defensive Strength: Three Consumer Staples Charts Leading the Market

As growth sectors lagged, Consumer Staples emerged as a rare pocket of strength. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights three standout charts—Costco, Philip Morris, and Dollar Tree—showing bullish technical setups that prove strong trends can appear in any sector....   READ MORE 

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Three Breadth Signals Confirming the Market’s Bullish Trend

Market breadth has improved dramatically as the S&P 500 pushes to new highs. Dave Keller, CMT, reviews three key breadth indicators—including advance-decline lines, new highs vs. lows, and stocks above key moving averages—to assess whether this bullish trend remains intact....   READ MORE 

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5 Breadth Signals Powering the 2026 Breakout and What Would Break It

5 Breadth Signals Powering the 2026 Breakout and What Would Break It

David Keller breaks down five key breadth signals confirming the market’s 2026 breakout. At the same time, he also examines what each indicator could do that would signal weakening participation and a potential breakdown....   READ MORE 

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Financials Leading Tech?

Why Financials May Matter More Than Tech in Early 2026

As we head into 2026, signs of rotating market leadership are already emerging, and the Financial sector is starting to attract attention. In this video, David Keller, CMT, takes a deep dive into the Financial sector, the yield curve, and the shifting interest rate dynamics. Dave breaks down what the...   READ MORE 

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Three Investing Lessons from a Challenging 2025 Market

After a challenging and highly rotational 2025, Dave Keller, CMT, shares three key investing lessons, from focusing on process over prediction to recognizing leadership shifts beneath the surface. Learn how investors can better prepare for market opportunities in 2026....   READ MORE 

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2025 Market Recap & 2026 Outlook: Trends, Psychology, and What Comes Next

2025 Market Recap & 2026 Outlook: Trends, Psychology, and What Comes Next

Grayson and Dave give their year-end thoughts about the wild market action of 2025, what worked (or not) for traders over the course of the year, and what lessons to take for 2026. ...   READ MORE 

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Change of Character: Spotting the Shift From Downtrend to Uptrend

Change of Character: Spotting the Shift From Downtrend to Uptrend

David Keller explains how to spot when a stock transitions from distribution to accumulation, and how you can use scanning, alerts, and scheduled scans to find the next breakout....   READ MORE 

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Traffic light: an approach to trend changes

Is the S&P 500 Stuck in Neutral? A Traffic Light Approach to Trend Changes

Since the April low, the S&P 500 has shifted from a strong uptrend into a clear consolidation. Dave Keller, CMT, introduces a “traffic light” charting technique to define key support and resistance levels—and spot when sideways markets finally break into accumulation or distribution....   READ MORE 

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Hedge Funds AND Mutual Funds Picked These 6 Stocks — Should You?

Hedge Funds AND Mutual Funds Picked These 6 Stocks — Should You?

Dave Keller, CMT reviews six stocks that appeared on both hedge fund and mutual fund “shared favorites” lists in a recent Goldman Sachs study. He evaluates each using StockCharts tools, revealing which setups still show strength and which may be flashing warning signs....   READ MORE 

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Bull or Bear? Dave Keller’s Four Scenarios for the Nasdaq’s Next Move

Bull or Bear? Dave Keller’s Four Scenarios for the Nasdaq’s Next Move

The Nasdaq 100 sits near record highs, but where does it go from here? Dave Keller, CMT, lays out four scenarios—ranging from a Santa Claus rally to a deeper correction—and assigns probabilities to each to help investors prepare for early 2026’s next big move....   READ MORE 

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Top Charts for December: When the 200-Day Becomes the Deciding Factor

The 200-day moving average remains one of the most powerful tools in technical analysis. Dave Keller, CMT, spotlights three stocks—COO, COIN, and HBAN—where this long-term trendline is shaping potential bullish reversals, bearish setups, and breakout recoveries....   READ MORE 

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David Keller's December Playbook: 10 Charts You Should See

David Keller's December Playbook: 10 Charts You Should See

If you're looking for a quick pulse of the stock market heading into the last month of the year, David Keller, CMT, just dropped a video breaking down the 10 charts he's watching, and there's a lot to unpack. Some stocks are powering higher...   READ MORE 

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Apple Leads, Amazon Lags, Nvidia Wobbles: Sorting the Magnificent 7 by Trend Strength

The Magnificent 7 are showing clear divergence from each other in November. Apple continues its breakout, Nvidia struggles after earnings, and Amazon teeters on key support. Dave Keller, CMT, breaks down the technical setups that could shape December’s market trend....   READ MORE 

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Magnificent 7 Breakdown: Leaders, Laggards & the Charts to Watch Now!

Magnificent 7 Breakdown: Leaders, Laggards & the Charts to Watch Now!

The mega-cap growth stocks are no longer moving in sync, and that's creating big opportunities. In this video, David Keller, CMT, breaks down the "Magnificent 7 and Friends" into four clear technical categories to reveal where leadership is emerging and where weakness is starting to bite....   READ MORE 

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A “Change of Character” for Stocks: Key Breakdown Levels to Watch

A “change of character” is emerging as major indexes weaken in November. Equal-weight indexes confirm a bearish turn, Bitcoin’s collapse highlights fading speculation, and the S&P 500’s key support near 6550 may be the final line before a deeper market correction....   READ MORE 

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3 Major Breakdown Signals - Is a Market Top Forming?

3 Major Breakdown Signals - Is a Market Top Forming?

David Keller, CMT uses the modern Dow Theory, sector rotation, and Bitcoin’s decline to illustrate what might be a developing market top. With StockCharts’ tools, Dave tracks weakening momentum, defensive shifts, and the S&P 500’s crucial 6550 support level....   READ MORE 

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Three Stocks That Could Benefit Most from Tariff Relief — If the Charts Agree

With talk of tariffs being rolled back, stocks like Best Buy, Stanley Black & Decker, and Nike could benefit from renewed optimism. But, as Dave, explains, the charts tell the real story, revealing which names are technically ready to lead the next move higher....   READ MORE 

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The Tariff Relief Playbook: 10 Stocks with Upside Potential

The Tariff Relief Playbook: 10 Stocks with Upside Potential

Which stocks could benefit the most if trade tariffs are rolled back? Dave highlights ten potential winners—including CAT, NKE, and more—and shows how to use StockCharts tools to uncover trend strength and opportunities....   READ MORE 

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Juggling different sectors and industry groups

Change of Character: Why the S&P 500’s Uptrend May Be Breaking Down

The S&P 500 has broken below its 21-day EMA and key trend channel support, testing its 50-day moving average as market breadth weakens. With tech leaders like NVDA and AVGO tumbling, investors should watch for a possible rotation toward defensive sectors....   READ MORE 

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Buying the dip in stocks

Will “Buy the Dips” Work Again in November 2025?

Identifying a true uptrend means watching for higher lows and key support levels. Charts of CELH, BAC, and CAT show how dip-buying and moving-average support reveal whether bullish momentum will continue or signal a shift toward a bearish phase....   READ MORE 

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Breakouts, Pullbacks & Setups: 10 Must-Watch Charts for November

Breakouts, Pullbacks & Setups: 10 Must-Watch Charts for November

Grayson Roze and David Keller share ten charts to watch for November, including setups in Celsius, Regeneron, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, and Shopify. Learn how they use StockCharts tools and trend analysis to locate strength and manage risk in a stretched bull market....   READ MORE 

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When Market Leaders Falter: What Recent Moves in the Magnificent 7 Mean for Investors

As the Magnificent 7 dictate the tone for the S&P 500, their charts reveal early signs of fatigue amid mixed earnings reactions. Technical discipline remains essential as investors assess whether these former leaders can sustain their uptrends into year-end....   READ MORE 

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Head and Shoulders Tops: Classic Signals, Key Phases, and a Surprise Reversal

Dave Keller explores the classic head and shoulders top, breaking down its three key phases with examples from JNJ and Dominion, plus a failed pattern in Nucor that turned into a bullish reversal....   READ MORE 

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This Head and Shoulders Pattern Looked Perfect… Until It Failed!

Learn how to spot valid head and shoulders patterns and when to walk away. David Keller, CMT, shows how failed setups can signal strength and potential bullish reversals....   READ MORE 

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Three Charts That Prove the Power of Process Over Prediction

Technical analysis is about having a consistent process of evaluating the evidence. Dave revisits three charts he highlighted at the end of September, reviews how the technical picture has changed, and updates his thesis using price and momentum techniques....   READ MORE 

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Will These Broken Charts Overcome Bearish Divergences?

Bearish momentum divergences can help provide a game plan for confirming potential price breakdowns. We review three charts to see how they have evolved since a bearish rotation, and focus on identifying potential entry points for the next rally phase....   READ MORE 

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5 Charts Holding Strong — And 1 Breaking Down

5 Charts Holding Strong — And 1 Breaking Down

Dave Keller, CMT, uses his go-to StockCharts tools to identify which stocks are displaying technical strength, which ones are testing support, and which ones are trending. Learn how to manage your positions, identify reversals, and know when it's time to reevaluate your portfolio holdings....   READ MORE 

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The Dreaded Hindenburg Omen Fires Again

The Hindenburg Omen is a macro technical indicator which was designed by reviewing the common characteristics of previous bull market tops. Dave breaks down the components of this indicator, reviews signals from the last 10 years, and discusses implications for the S&P 500 in Q4 2025....   READ MORE 

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Hand holding compass trying to figure out which way the S&P will go

Four Roads Diverge in the Market: Which Will the S&P 500 Take?

We outline four potential scenarios for the S&P 500 index through the end of November 2025, along with our probabilities for each of the scenarios. Which one do you feel is most likely to occur?...   READ MORE 

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Avoid This Common Investor Trap: The Charts Don’t Lie!

Avoid This Common Investor Trap: The Charts Don’t Lie!

Endowment bias can hurt your portfolio by keeping you tied to losing positions. David Keller shares how to manage risk, protect profits, and spot weakening charts using technical analysis and automated scans on StockCharts....   READ MORE 

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How High is Too High for Gold?

Gold has pushed above $4000 for the first time in history! We'll recap this historic rally for gold, analyze recent pullbacks during the uptrend phase, and share trend following tools we're using to anticipate a potential downside reversal in gold stocks....   READ MORE 

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Will These Three Promising Charts Hold Key Support?

We highlight three stocks that have experienced strong gains since August, but are now testing key support levels. Will support hold, or will the bull market be brought into question?...   READ MORE