David Keller

David Keller


David is President and Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research LLC, where he helps active investors make better decisions using behavioral finance and technical analysis. He is a former President of the CMT Association. Learn More 

Archived News

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SPX 7000: Evaluating the Past, Present, and Future

The S&P 500’s move above 7000 signals renewed strength after the March low. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights bullish trend model signals, key Fibonacci levels, and improving breadth data that could confirm whether this breakout can continue into Q2....   READ MORE 

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Can This Market Rally Actually Hold? 5 Charts to Watch

Can This Market Rally Actually Hold? 5 Charts to Watch

The market rally has been surprisingly strong—but can it hold? Dave Keller reviews five key charts to determine whether this move has staying power or is at risk of failing....   READ MORE 

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Candlestick chart patterns

Bullish Breakouts, Bearish Candles: What to Watch Next

Several stocks broke out this week, but bearish candle patterns suggest short-term exhaustion. Dave Keller, CMT, reviews VRSN, TGT, and TJX, showing how reversal signals- combined with overbought conditions- could lead to tactical pullbacks within broader uptrends....   READ MORE 

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Top 10 Charts to Watch: April 2026 Breakouts & Key Levels

Top 10 Charts to Watch: April 2026 Breakouts & Key Levels

Dave Keller breaks down the top 10 charts to watch for April 2026, focusing on breakout setups, key support tests, and emerging trends. These charts highlight what matters as the market navigates a potential counter-trend rally....   READ MORE 

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Lady in coffee shop looking at charts on laptop wondering if the rally is real

Is This Rally Real? What Needs to Improve for a Bullish Case

After a sharp countertrend rally, key signals remain mixed. Dave Keller, CMT, outlines three conditions for a bullish turn—rotation into offensive sectors, improving breadth, and breakouts in growth stocks—to determine if the S&P 500 can sustain a recovery in April....   READ MORE 

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Stock market falling below support level

Below the 200-Day: What’s Next for the S&P 500?

The S&P 500 has broken below key support and its 200-day moving average, signaling a confirmed bearish phase. Dave Keller, CMT, outlines a downside target near 6200 and explains how short-term rallies could emerge before the broader downtrend continues....   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 Breakdown: Next Downside Targets to Watch

S&P 500 Breakdown: Next Downside Targets to Watch

The S&P 500 has broken key support, confirming a shift into a downtrend. Dave Keller outlines the next downside targets and the indicators to watch for a potential bounce or continued weakness....   READ MORE 

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Are Sentiment Indicators Bearish Enough to Be Bullish?

Are Sentiment Indicators Bearish Enough to Be Bullish?

Sentiment has turned more bearish, but is it bearish enough to signal a market low? Join Dave Keller as he reviews the VIX, AAII survey, NAAIM exposure, and put/call ratios to show why conditions may not be extreme just yet....   READ MORE 

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falling dominoes

Cracks in Mega-Cap Leadership: What MSFT, AMZN, and TSLA Are Telling Us

Mega cap leaders are beginning to weaken beneath the surface of a rangebound market. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights bearish patterns in Microsoft, Amazon, and Tesla, raising concerns that deteriorating leadership could lead to further downside for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq....   READ MORE 

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These Charts Could Decide the Next Market Move

These Charts Could Decide the Next Market Move

Why hasn’t the market broken down, even amid weakening breadth? Dave Keller shows how a small group of mega-cap stocks may be holding the indexes together, and the key levels that could decide the next market move....   READ MORE 

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Market Breadth Breakdown: Why the Market Has “Bad Breadth” in March 2026

Market Breadth Breakdown: Why the Market Has “Bad Breadth” in March 2026

The S&P 500 may look stable, but market breadth is quietly deteriorating. Dave Keller breaks down key breadth indicators and explains why weakening participation could signal trouble ahead....   READ MORE 

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Bull holding up arrow pointing up: strong stocks

Market Breadth Breaks Down, but These Stocks Still Look Strong

Even as market breadth deteriorates and the S&P 500 slips below key support, strong setups still exist. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights Marathon Petroleum, Target, and Palantir — three charts showing breakouts, trend strength, and improving momentum into March....   READ MORE 

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Dave Keller: Top 10 Stocks for March

Top 10 Charts to Watch | March 2026 Breakouts & Inflection Points

With corporate earnings now behind us, investors can shift their focus to the trends taking shape in Q1. In this video, David Keller, CMT, shares the top 10 charts he's watching for March 2026, and more importantly, why they matter right now. Dave organizes his charts into three...   READ MORE 

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NVDA Earnings Preview: 5 Charts That Could Define the Next Major Move

NVDA Earnings Preview: 5 Charts That Could Define the Next Major Move

With NVIDIA earnings having the potential to trigger a major move, Dave Keller takes a close look at it’s chart across multiple timeframes. From long-term PPO signals to key support and resistance, he explains the critical features that could confirm a breakout or breakdown....   READ MORE 

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Stock chart that is rangebound

Rangebound Market: How to Trade the S&P 500’s Next Move

The S&P 500 remains locked in a multi-month consolidation as leadership rotates from growth into value. Dave Keller, CMT, updates key support and resistance levels and explains how momentum signals, especially RSI, could confirm the S&P 500's next breakout or breakdown....   READ MORE 

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RSI Divergences Can Signal Major Tops — But Only If Confirmed!

RSI Divergences Can Signal Major Tops — But Only If Confirmed!

RSI divergences can warn of potential major tops, but only if confirmed by breakdown signals. David Keller walks through DG, GOOGL, AT&T, and the S&P 500 to show what must happen before a divergence becomes actionable....   READ MORE 

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Bottom Fishing or Breakdown? How to Spot a True Trend Reversal

Bottom Fishing or Breakdown? How to Spot a True Trend Reversal

When high-flying stocks tumble, is it a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper decline? Dave Keller, CMT, uses Alaska Air as a case study to show how momentum divergences and moving averages can confirm a true bottom—then applies the framework to PLTR and COIN....   READ MORE 

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Defensive Sectors Surge as Hindenburg Omen Flashes Warning

Defensive Sectors Surge as Hindenburg Omen Flashes Warning

A confirmed Hindenburg Omen signal and renewed rotation into defensive sectors are raising caution flags for US equities. While the S&P 500 remains in a neutral range, Dave Keller, CMT, highlights key support levels and breadth signals investors should monitor closely....   READ MORE 

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PLTR, BTC, and COIN: How to Spot Bottoming Clues (and Avoid Falling Knives)

PLTR, BTC, and COIN: How to Spot Bottoming Clues (and Avoid Falling Knives)

Dave contrasts trend-following momentum strategies with value-oriented approaches focused on buying weakness, and explains how technical analysis uses leading and lagging signals....   READ MORE 

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Four railroad tracks crossing

Avoiding Confirmation Bias: Four Paths for the S&P 500 Into March

As volatility picks up, the S&P 500 sits in a crucial neutral zone. Dave Keller, CMT, uses probabilistic analysis to outline four possible paths for the index into late March—from a renewed bull run to a deeper correction—helping investors prepare for multiple outcomes....   READ MORE 

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AMD Earnings Fallout: What a Break Below $200 Would Really Mean

After a sharp post-earnings drop, AMD remains locked in a multi-month consolidation between $200 and $265. Dave Keller, CMT, breaks down how accumulation, distribution, and consolidation phases form, along with what price levels would confirm a decisive bearish shift....   READ MORE 

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AMD Case Study: Trend Phases, Earnings Risk, and the “Nothing Burger” Range

AMD Case Study: Trend Phases, Earnings Risk, and the “Nothing Burger” Range

Not sure if a stock is breaking out or topping out? Dave Keller, CMT, uses AMD to explain trend phases and how StockCharts tools help investors manage risk and avoid emotional decisions....   READ MORE 

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Beyond the Bull Market: Three Charts Still Showing Technical Strength

Beyond the Bull Market: Three Charts Still Showing Technical Strength

As former market leaders stumble, opportunity still exists for disciplined chart watchers. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights three constructive technical setups—Walmart, CVS Health, and Comcast—that demonstrate how strength, support, and breakouts can emerge even in a choppier market environment....   READ MORE 

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Top 10 Charts Revealed -- February 2026 Market Shifts

Top 10 Charts Revealed -- February 2026 Market Shifts

Grayson Roze and Dave Keller break down the top 10 charts to watch for February, exposing where leadership is changing and where new strength is emerging. From rotation across sectors to key breakouts and bottoming patterns, these charts highlight what’s actually driving the market right now....   READ MORE 

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Failed Breakouts: How to Spot Them, Manage Risk, and Stay with Strong Charts

Failed Breakouts: How to Spot Them, Manage Risk, and Stay with Strong Charts

Markets are feeling uncertain as earnings season unfolds and the Fed meeting approaches, yet overall trends remain surprisingly strong. This week, Dave Keller explores the concept of failed breakouts and why managing risk is just as important as identifying new opportunities....   READ MORE 

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Chart of stock price displaying indicators

What RSI Is Really Saying About GOOGL, GS, and AAPL

The Relative Strength Index can reveal far more than overbought and oversold levels. Dave Keller, CMT, analyzes RSI structures in GOOGL, GS, and AAPL to show how momentum confirms strong uptrends, warns of divergences, and signals full trend breakdowns....   READ MORE 

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RSI Signals Most Traders Misread — Overbought Levels & Divergences That Matter

RSI Signals Most Traders Misread — Overbought Levels & Divergences That Matter

Dave Keller breaks down RSI signals that many traders misread, including overbought conditions and bearish divergences. Using real chart examples, he explains which RSI signals actually matter as momentum shifts....   READ MORE 

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Defensive player tackling offensive running back

Defensive Strength: Three Consumer Staples Charts Leading the Market

As growth sectors lagged, Consumer Staples emerged as a rare pocket of strength. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights three standout charts—Costco, Philip Morris, and Dollar Tree—showing bullish technical setups that prove strong trends can appear in any sector....   READ MORE 

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Three Breadth Signals Confirming the Market’s Bullish Trend

Market breadth has improved dramatically as the S&P 500 pushes to new highs. Dave Keller, CMT, reviews three key breadth indicators—including advance-decline lines, new highs vs. lows, and stocks above key moving averages—to assess whether this bullish trend remains intact....   READ MORE 

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5 Breadth Signals Powering the 2026 Breakout and What Would Break It

5 Breadth Signals Powering the 2026 Breakout and What Would Break It

David Keller breaks down five key breadth signals confirming the market’s 2026 breakout. At the same time, he also examines what each indicator could do that would signal weakening participation and a potential breakdown....   READ MORE 

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Financials Leading Tech?

Why Financials May Matter More Than Tech in Early 2026

As we head into 2026, signs of rotating market leadership are already emerging, and the Financial sector is starting to attract attention. In this video, David Keller, CMT, takes a deep dive into the Financial sector, the yield curve, and the shifting interest rate dynamics. Dave breaks down what the...   READ MORE 

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Target with three arrows

Three Investing Lessons from a Challenging 2025 Market

After a challenging and highly rotational 2025, Dave Keller, CMT, shares three key investing lessons, from focusing on process over prediction to recognizing leadership shifts beneath the surface. Learn how investors can better prepare for market opportunities in 2026....   READ MORE 

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2025 Market Recap & 2026 Outlook: Trends, Psychology, and What Comes Next

2025 Market Recap & 2026 Outlook: Trends, Psychology, and What Comes Next

Grayson and Dave give their year-end thoughts about the wild market action of 2025, what worked (or not) for traders over the course of the year, and what lessons to take for 2026. ...   READ MORE 

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Change of Character: Spotting the Shift From Downtrend to Uptrend

Change of Character: Spotting the Shift From Downtrend to Uptrend

David Keller explains how to spot when a stock transitions from distribution to accumulation, and how you can use scanning, alerts, and scheduled scans to find the next breakout....   READ MORE 

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Traffic light: an approach to trend changes

Is the S&P 500 Stuck in Neutral? A Traffic Light Approach to Trend Changes

Since the April low, the S&P 500 has shifted from a strong uptrend into a clear consolidation. Dave Keller, CMT, introduces a “traffic light” charting technique to define key support and resistance levels—and spot when sideways markets finally break into accumulation or distribution....   READ MORE 

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Hedge Funds AND Mutual Funds Picked These 6 Stocks — Should You?

Hedge Funds AND Mutual Funds Picked These 6 Stocks — Should You?

Dave Keller, CMT reviews six stocks that appeared on both hedge fund and mutual fund “shared favorites” lists in a recent Goldman Sachs study. He evaluates each using StockCharts tools, revealing which setups still show strength and which may be flashing warning signs....   READ MORE 

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Bull or Bear? Dave Keller’s Four Scenarios for the Nasdaq’s Next Move

Bull or Bear? Dave Keller’s Four Scenarios for the Nasdaq’s Next Move

The Nasdaq 100 sits near record highs, but where does it go from here? Dave Keller, CMT, lays out four scenarios—ranging from a Santa Claus rally to a deeper correction—and assigns probabilities to each to help investors prepare for early 2026’s next big move....   READ MORE 

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Top Charts for December: When the 200-Day Becomes the Deciding Factor

The 200-day moving average remains one of the most powerful tools in technical analysis. Dave Keller, CMT, spotlights three stocks—COO, COIN, and HBAN—where this long-term trendline is shaping potential bullish reversals, bearish setups, and breakout recoveries....   READ MORE 

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David Keller's December Playbook: 10 Charts You Should See

David Keller's December Playbook: 10 Charts You Should See

If you're looking for a quick pulse of the stock market heading into the last month of the year, David Keller, CMT, just dropped a video breaking down the 10 charts he's watching, and there's a lot to unpack. Some stocks are powering higher...   READ MORE 

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Arrows moving up and down

Apple Leads, Amazon Lags, Nvidia Wobbles: Sorting the Magnificent 7 by Trend Strength

The Magnificent 7 are showing clear divergence from each other in November. Apple continues its breakout, Nvidia struggles after earnings, and Amazon teeters on key support. Dave Keller, CMT, breaks down the technical setups that could shape December’s market trend....   READ MORE