I'm a big fan of playing the long game as an investor, particularly for long-term accounts that should arguably not be affected by short-term market fluctuations. Talking with experts like Jon Markman, author of Fast Forward Investing, has reminded me that overarching themes like artificial intelligence, electric vehicles,... READ MORE
My conversations with Chris Verrone, Adrian Zduńczyk, and Mary Ellen McGonagle this week on The Final Barleft me striving to simplify my analysis of the S&P 500. It's been a confusing time for stocks and as a result, my main daily chart of the S&... READ MORE
One of my early mentors often remarked, "Nothing good happens below the 200-day."This was his way of recognizing that, while stocks can certainly pop higher from beaten down levels, you're more likely to experience sustained advances once the price is above the 200-day moving average.... READ MORE
People absolutely love to not love gold. When I post bullish gold comments on social media, I am guaranteed to get some not-so-constructive pushback on an optimistic thesis. Why do people love to hate the gold trade? Well, for starters, it hasn't worked in a long time. But... READ MORE
I've recognized the strength displayed by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite off the October lows. I've written about the New Dow Theory buy signaland the improvement in breadth indicators like thepercent of stocks above moving averages.So, while I am not as all-in... READ MORE
While the technical analysis toolkit has certainly evolved over time, having benefitted from advances in computing and data analysis, in many ways, the tools of the modern technical analyst are not far from the original work of Charles Dow in the early 20th century. But an updated version of his... READ MORE
How much weight should we put on the fact that the S&P 500 index powered above its 200-day moving average (MA) this week? If history is any indication, then this is actually a fairly momentous occasion. Unless it's a repeat of March 2022, in which case... READ MORE
I like to keep my process simple. That means I define the market trend using a simple combination of exponential moving averages. That also means that my charts are relatively straightforward, avoiding too many indicators and sticking to what I consider simple measures of trend and momentum. So when I... READ MORE
Position for the most probable scenario, but plan for alternative scenarios. Why is this a sentence that should be printed out and taped to your monitor, now if not sooner? Because, as investors we often become very tied to a particular narrative. The Fed is wrapping up its tightening cycle... READ MORE
As the great bear market of 2022 was really hitting its stride, the 3800 level came into view as a likely support level for stocks. We keyed in on that level based on Fibonacci Retracements using the March 2020 low and the January 2022 high. At the time, that seemed... READ MORE
When I worked on the institutional buyside, we had the opportunity to hear from lots of brokers, strategists, and analysts in the industry. And I was thrilled to have some of the top technical analysts around coming through to talk charts with us. One of my favorite questions to ask... READ MORE
Charts give you a window into the collective psychological state of investors. Are people excited or panicky? Euphoric or despondent? Optimistic or pessimistic? All of that is embedded in price action if you know how to analyze the trends. As the market rallied strongly off the October lows, fueled by... READ MORE
I've now been hosting our closing bell show, The Final Bar, for over three years. It's been such a fascinating experience to use my daily show as a way to focus my own analytical process, and I truly believe that hosting a show like this has... READ MORE
In early October, market trends appeared to make sense—at least, as much as could be expected in 2022. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) had just made a new 52-week low, the U.S. dollar had just achieved a new 52-week high, and the 10-Year Treasury yield had... READ MORE
I was reviewing my weekly ChartList reports this afternoon and noticed this one, showing the top performing sectors for the week. Only three of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were up on the week: Consumer Staples, Utilities and Health Care. Not exactly an offensive powerhouse on the top... READ MORE
While gold has not done much in 2022 in terms of absolute returns, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has indeed outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) by about 11% year-to-date. Why has gold not done better as a safe haven? It's all about the U.S.... READ MORE
Bruce Fraser joined me on The Final Bar this week and shared a thought-provoking point & figure chart of the S&P 500 index. With the recent upswing, you can use a horizontal count to identify potential upside targets for the bear market rally. (Yes, I am still labeling... READ MORE
When someone sends me a ticker to review, the first thing I do is bring up my standard two-year daily chart on StockCharts. And the very first question I ask myself is always the same: is this chart in an accumulation phase or a distribution phase? Now that is a... READ MORE
On Thursday, the S&P 500 index opened around 3500, which is a fairly significant level. That price point represents a 50% retracement of the 2020-2022 bull market phase. Was I surprised to see a bounce off the 50% retracement level? Absolutely not. As Katie Stockton shared on The... READ MORE
OK, so we know the market is going down. And, save for a mid-summer bear market rally, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been in fairly consistent downtrends. Last week, I highlighted the extreme bearish readings in the AAII Survey(it's worth noting that this weekNAAIM... READ MORE
I have very fond memories of time spent in the Fidelity Chart Room, from discussing the merits of contrary opinion with teams of financial advisors to teaching student investment clubs about the value of technical analysis. But one of my favorite "behind the scenes" moments came in 2009.... READ MORE
I was taught early on that "a rising tide lifts all boats" and that the real game as an equity investor was to get the market call right. Forget about the individual stocks and instead focus your attention on the macro call. Because most stocks just follow the... READ MORE
I find semiconductors to be an important group to watch, given that they essentially provide the "backbone" to our modern information economy. Pretty much every product we use at this point has a chip involved, so if chip makers are doing well, then I can assume the economy... READ MORE
Friday's sudden 3-4% drop felt like a wake-up call of sorts. At least it did for me, as I remained bearish through much of the recent rally phase. How could the market rally given all the macro headwinds -- inflationary pressures, higher interest rates, a hawkish Fed? Tony... READ MORE
A key breadth indicator, which has indicated every swing top thus far in 2022, generated another sell signal on Friday. By the way, in case you're wondering, today's title is a direct reference to my friend Tom Bowley's quite well-timed show on StockCharts TV,... READ MORE
Since the initial rally off the June low, we've been reinforcing the importance of upside resistance in the 4150-4200 range. This is based on an initial Fibonacci retracement off the lows, and also happens to be the peak from early June. On Wednesday, we finally closed above this... READ MORE
While the VIX is often termed the "fear gauge" because of its inverse relationship to stocks, it's really more of a measure of volatility -- implied volatility, that is, which means it's looking at the S&P 500 options market, which then "... READ MORE
If you found this article through the Saturday, August 6 ChartWatchers newsletter, please click on this link to read this week's article instead. If I had just one thing to use to understand the markets and predict what was coming next, it would be a daily chart of... READ MORE
For the last couple months, when someone would bring up some bullish argument, my response would usually be something like, "Sure, but we're still below the 50-day moving average." I've learned that this game is all about identifying a key level, price, signal, or... READ MORE
The top gainer in the S&P 500 index on Friday was Citigroup (C), up over 13% on a strong earnings report. So the chart is obviously bullish, right? Not so fast. It is very easy to get drawn into short-term signals like one-day price movements. But the trick... READ MORE
Despite the long-term macro trends of higher interest rates, higher inflation and a hawkish Fed, growth stocks have managed to log some pretty decent gains in recent weeks. I've spoken often on the importance of the FAANG stocksdue to their outsized influence on our very growth-oriented equity benchmarks.... READ MORE
Semiconductors are what I consider a "bellwether" group. These companies truly provide the backbone of the modern information economy, so, when these stocks are doing well, the economic conditions are most likely strong. The SMH is featured a number of times on my Mindful Investor Live ChartList, mainly... READ MORE
Most of my conversations this week on The Final Barwere related to the tactical upswing in risk assets this week, paired with the realities of a long-term bear market phase.At what point does the market rally enough that a short-term gain becomes more of a long-term recovery? Well, first... READ MORE
When the market is in a confirmed downtrend, which I certainly believe it is, your investor game needs to rotate from a focus on capital growth to a focus on capital preservation.As long as the trend remains negative, and the price momentum remains bearish, there is no real reason... READ MORE
One of my early mentors, Ralph Acampora, suggested that, if you want to understand the trend in the S&P 500, you simply need to look at the chart of the S&P 500.What is the trend? Are we seeing higher highs or lower lows? Where are... READ MORE
I've written that bear market rallies can be sudden, severe and seductive. The move off the lows in May certainly seems to check all three boxes!Using analysis of price action, breadth indicators and volume techniques, I'll show how the similarities between the current market upswing... READ MORE
2022 has been a clear bear market phase for risk assets, particularly the equity markets. The signs were building in January, seemed validated by a new low in February, then were absolutely confirmed with the failed breakout above 4600 in late March. Somewhere in the first three months of the... READ MORE
It is super difficult to disconnect from the emotional impact of investing. I've often spoken of the dangers of endowment bias, where we tend to hold on to a losing position despite very clear evidence that we should cut our losses.As legendary technical analyst Ralph Acampora told... READ MORE
We are now in the seasonally weakest half of the year, which is why "sell in May and go away" comments have made the annual rounds. While the Sell in May approach has not been particularly successfulin recent years, it is indeed based on the general tendency of... READ MORE
Some of my most painful experiences as an investor have come when I have been undisciplined. I would get away from my daily and weekly routines, act rashly when I noticed a compelling chart, and usually end up regretting that decision in a big way. I learned that, by going... READ MORE