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Seasonality Expects a Decline For SPY in September and an Underperformance for Technology
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Last Tuesday in Sector Spotlight, as well as in my last article of the RRG blog, I discussed seasonality for US sectors. While going over the table showing the average returns per sector per month, my eye fell on another number... the minus-one percent (-1%) for the Technology sector. This...
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Sector Spotlight: Avoid Materials in September
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of Sector Spotlight, I look at last week's rotations using daily Relative Rotation Graphs and go over the completed monthly charts for August to catch up on the long-term trends. After the break, I analyze the seasonality for US sectors and look for alignment of...
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September Seasonality Points to Sector Rotation from Materials into Communication Services
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The graph above shows the percentage of months in which sectors have outperformed the S&P 500 in the past. For most sectors, the data go back 20 years, with the exceptions of XLC and XLRE, as these sectors were only introduced more recently and the historical data does...
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Swap From XLK to RYT to Mitigate The Increasing Risk For AAPL
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Last week, I wrote an article titled "What Can We Learn From Equal Weight vs. Cap Weighted Rotations on RRG". In that article, I touched upon distortions between EW and CW sector ETFs because of the large and increasing weight of a few Mega-Cap stocks.
In this week&...
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NKE Starts Running!
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
On the weekly Relative Rotation Graph for the DJ Industrials universe, NKE is inside the weakening quadrant following a completed rotation on the right side of the graph (Leading-Weakening-Leading). And over the last few weeks, the tail on NKE has again started to curl back up. These sort of rotations...
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Sector Spotlight: Putting Industries Inside Technology
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of Sector Spotlight, I work my way through the investment pyramid in a top-down fashion using RRGs. After the break, I analyze an RRG that holds the industry indexes that make up the technology sector to get a more granular handle on the rotations of various groups...
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What Can We Learn From Equal Weight vs. Cap Weighted Rotations on RRG?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
By far the most-watched Relative Rotation Graph is the one that shows the rotation for the 11 S&P sectors, and for good reason; it shows very clearly where the strengths and weaknesses in the various areas of the market are.
But we have to realize that some of...
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Trains Trump Planes!
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Last Tuesday in Sector Spotlight, I covered the Industrials sector. While looking into the constituents of the sector and the group breakdown, it was pretty clear that the group "airlines" is not doing very well.
UAL, DAL and LUV are all inside the improving quadrant, but they also...
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Sector Spotlight: Opportunities in the Industrials Sector
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of Sector Spotlight, I put last week's rotations for asset classes and sectors into a longer-term perspective. After the break, I perform a deep dive into the industrials sector, showing some stocks with potential but also a group that, as a whole, is better off...
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Not All Tech Stocks Look Good... But the Most Important Ones Still Do!
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The technology sector sparks a lot of interest, and for good reason - it has turned into a safe(r) haven when things get rough in the markets, but it's also everybody's baby when the market goes up. "What could possibly go wrong?", one...
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Break to New Highs in $SPX is Crucial for Leadership vs. Rest of the World
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Towards the end of May, the US stock market ($SPX) started to lose relative strength vs. other major world market stock indexes.
Around that time the $SPX tail vs. $DJW, the Dow Jones Global Index, rolled over inside the leading quadrant and started to rotate into and through weakening. This...
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Sector Spotlight: Four Interesting Sector Rotations
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of Sector Spotlight, I look at the rotations for Asset Classes and US sectors, zooming in on the combination of weekly and daily rotations for Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Communication Services and Technology. After the break, I touch on the current positions in the long short baskets and...
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Sector Rotation From Materials and Discretionary to Tech and Communication
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The weekly Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors shows four sectors at the right-hand side of the plot, JdK RS-Ratio > 100 and all seven other sectors at the left-hand side. This indicates that, from a relative strength perspective, the market is driven by only four sectors. But those four...
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Break from "Pennant" Targets $500 for AAPL
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
To get some inspiration for a nice subject or stock to show in this article, I went to my dashboard, on which I have one widget that shows the most actively traded stocks in the Dow Jones Industrials index.
A nice little gimmick is that you can run an RRG...
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Sector Spotlight: Bonds are Looking Good
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
As is usual for the first episode of Sector Spotlight of a new month, I take an in-depth look at developments on the monthly charts for Asset Classes and Sectors. There's also a short intermezzo on Flag patterns and a book suggestion!
This video was originally broadcast on...
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Watching Rotations into Real Estate and Technology (again)...
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
At the start of the week, two tails on the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors are showing interesting rotations. These are the tails for for XLRE and XLK.
Real Estate
The positive rotation for the daily tail on the RRG coincides nicely with the improvement for XLRE on a...
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Will The Next Big Move Be in Bonds?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
(Financial) Markets rotate, that's a given. When we look at the stock market, we call it sector rotation, which is probably the most widely-used term. But there is definitely also rotational action going on in other markets or cross assets. Think in terms of country or regional stock...
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Real Estate Emerging Out of Doldrums
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Ok, the header image may not be entirely accurate to the message of this article, as it deals with the Real Estate sector which is all about listed REITs, but I could not resist using it ;)
When I looked at the Relative Rotation Graphs for sectors this morning, I noticed...
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Sector Spotlight: Seasonality and RRGs
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
It's a very full show on this episode of Sector Spotlight. After a quick overview of what happened in asset classes and sectors last week, I take a look at seasonality combined with rotations on the RRG. Finally, I finish up the show by answering two mailbag questions...
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Sector Rotation Shows Weakness for Technology and Communication Services
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Following Friday's close, we are facing a daily Relative Rotation Graph with some interesting (sector) rotations underway.
Energy
The Energy sector had a pretty good week. This comes after I suggested more weakness for this sector in Sector Spotlight on Tuesday 7/21... I recorded that show on...
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Here's a Materials Stock With Potential
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
With the Materials sector (XLB) moving into the leading quadrant on the weekly RRG, it makes sense to look for some individual stocks that may offer upside potential. Using Relative Rotation Graphs, we can do just that by loading all members of the Materials sector and using XLBas the benchmark...
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Sector Spotlight: Short-Term Sector Rotation Out of Technology
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
On this episode of Sector Spotlight, after a quick overview of Asset Class and Sector rotation, I go over and update my longer-term views using the investment pyramid. In the second half of the show, I give a thorough update of the Long/Short baskets while putting these picks in...
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XLB Picking Up More Strength as Sector Rotates Further into Leading; XLK Loses Relative Momentum inside Weakening
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
On the weekly Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors, there are five sectors rotating at the right hand side of the graph, either inside the leading quadrant (XLB,XLC,XLK,XLY) or inside the weakening quadrant (XLV). On the daily RRG, it's also only these sectors at the...
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What About Growth vs. Value Going into the Second Half?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The last time Value took over from Growth was at the end of 2018, and even that was only for a short period going into and following the Christmas Crash. But that situation rapidly reversed a few weeks into 2019, when the uptrend in the Growth-Value ratio continued strongly.
If...
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This Thing Has 70% Upside Potential...
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
I got triggered to watch the chart printed above when I was scrolling through the pre-defined RRG groups.
This is a routine I go through on a regular basis; just flip through all pre-defined RRGs and see if I note any strange or particularly strong or weak rotations. Literally right...
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Sector Spotlight: Charting Mid-Year Sector Rotation
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
On this episode of Sector Spotlight, I spends the full show in line with StockCharts TV's theme of the week "Charting the Second Half," examining what may be in store for the markets in the next part of 2020. I look at the rotation on the...
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XLY Simultaneously Breaking to New Highs in Price and Relative Strength
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
On the daily Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors, the Consumer Discretionary sector rotated back into the leading quadrant last week, coming up from weakening. Generally, this is a positive/strong rotation as it reflects the second (or third, etc.) leg within a relative uptrend that is already underway.
Looking...
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This BIG (BLUE) Tech Stock Is On The Verge Of Breaking Lower
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
There is no doubt that the technology sector is still the strongest segment in the US stock market, but, in the near term, it is losing some of its relative momentum, as you can see on the daily Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors. One of the stocks in that...
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Sector Spotlight: Why 322 is Important for SPY
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The first half of 2020 is "done and dusted." On this episode of Sector Spotlight, I start with a quick look back at the performance and rotations for asset classes and Sectors last week. Then, I take a closer look into the long-term trends using monthly charts in...
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The Materials Sector (XLB) is Lining Up For a Good Week!
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
I hope all of you had a great (long) 4th of July weekend. At the end of the short trading week, the Materials sector turned into a 0-90 degree heading on the Relative Rotation Graph as it crossed over into the improving quadrant from lagging at the same time.
This...
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AMZN Move Over Please... Coming Through
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
One of the ratios that a lot of market watchers and commentators look at is the relationship between Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary stocks. The assumption or rationale behind watching this pair is that Consumer Discretionary stocks usually do well in a rising market (SPY), while Consumer Staples stocks tend...
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Three Tweets and you're......
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
On the weekly chart of Twitter (TWTR), a clear downward trend is visible. The last three peaks are lining up nicely and connecting a downward-sloping resistance line. Parallel to that downward sloping resistance line, there is an also downward-sloping support line that connects the last three lower lows.
This channel...
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Sector Spotlight: S&P Losing Momentum
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
On this episode of Sector Spotlight, I check the seasonality for the month of July, but no clear over- or underperforming sectors are visible. The rotation of international stock markets is sending a clearer message; the US is losing momentum vs the rest of the world, especially Japan. Following some...
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Watching the Health Care Sector This Week As It Started Rotating at a Strong RRG-Heading
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Last week's sector rotation has pushed the Health Care sector into the improving quadrant at a positive RRG-Heading. This makes the sector stand out in a positive way on the DAILY Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors.
The only two other sectors that are rotating from left to...
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Turtle Soup Scan Triggers 29 Alerts, VRSN Ticks All The Boxes!
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
One of the scans that I run on a daily basis is my scan for "Turtle Soup" Buy signals. Actually, I have two versions of that scan - one that runs at last day's close and one that runs on last intraday update.
For the scan...
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Sector Spotlight: Sector Rotation Using Breadth Data
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
On this episode of Sector Spotlight, I perform a quick overview of asset class and sector rotation, then focus in on plotting breadth data on Relative Rotation Graphs. After the break, I answer two questions from the RRG mailbag.
This video was originally broadcast on June 23rd, 2020. Click anywhere...
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XLE is Down 9%, But Still Moving Up Into the Leading Quadrant.... Why?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
This question was forwarded to me by Dave Keller after he received it in the mailbag for his show The Final Bar.
"The RRGs attached all make sense except for XLE. It was down nearly 9% the last two days, but the RRG has it moving up from weakening....
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Where Wall Street Meets Broad Street - Using Breadth Data to Confirm Sector Rotation
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Technical analysts use a lot of breadth data in their work, which is understandable as it can give us a lot of useful information about how a market as a whole, usually a broad index level, behaves. Plus, it can help us to find developments "under the hood"...
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(Sector) Breadth Confirms Weak Rotation for Utilities
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Relative Rotation Graphs are not just good for showing you the relative rotation based on price, but can also help you to see the relative development (rotation) of breadth on a sector level. There are many measures for breadth available in the StockCharts.com database, including several breadth indexes that...
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Sector Spotlight: Steepening Yield Curve a Threat?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
On this episode of Sector Spotlight, I work my way through the Investment pyramid, introducing a new universe for commodity sub-indexes. In particular, I highlight the steepening of the yield curve, which could be a threat for the S&P.
This video was originally broadcast on June 16th, 2020....
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