Wall Street is betting on certain industry groups to weather this COVID-19 storm much better than others. Knowing which groups are favored is very important, especially if we suffer another bout of impulsive selling. Gold mining ($DJUSPM) and mining ($DJUSMG) are the two best performers, gaining 19.51% and 18.... READ MORE
Let me first say that arguing the bullish case for U.S. equities immediately puts me in the minority, which also would be my first bullish argument. When the masses believe we have nowhere to go but down, that's typically a sign that a bottom is near. Extreme... READ MORE
I'm personally trading stocks in very limited circumstances, mostly because you can't trust what you see from one hour to the next. While the bigger-picture downtrend remains in play, there's a lot of rotation taking place in stocks beneath the surface. For instance, as... READ MORE
I've been watching in horror at some of the recent economic reports, especially the initial jobless claims, which yesterday sported a second consecutive week above 3 million. It was just a few short weeks ago that we were seeing 200,000-220,000 every week. We live in a... READ MORE
I've been spending much of my time lately ignoring the recreational products group ($DJUSRP). And for good reason. This industry ranked 75th in performance out of 104 groups over the period February 19th through March 23rd - the period in which the S&P 500 fell from... READ MORE
My background is in public accounting. I spent two decades there and I always like to say that "I never met a spreadsheet that I didn't like!" I love to analyze. I actually enjoy studying numbers and relationships and read into the subtleties of what'... READ MORE
During tumultuous times like these, I pay particular attention to sentiment levels. Extreme fear tends to mark market bottoms, just as the recent Volatility Index ($VIX) reading above 80 coincided with this week's stock market bottom. It's simply the way bottoms form. However, last week we... READ MORE
At this exact moment? Yes. Am I a fan longer-term? No. Gold ($GOLD) nearly always is a good choice during periods of anxiety and we sure have plenty of that right now. So owning a piece of it would make sense for anyone wanting a hedge against the stock market... READ MORE
I'm a historian at heart. I absolutely love analyzing history to see what makes the market tick. It's why I turned my attention from fundamentals to technicals a few decades ago. Technical analysis is the study of price action to help forecast future price action. The... READ MORE
It's time to take a new approach to the stock market. There are plenty of times where it's just "rinse and repeat" and we use the same old strategies we've always used. Well, those days are gone. For me, it's... READ MORE
On Tuesday, I held a special webinar for EarningsBeats.com members to discuss the massive amount of net in-the-money put premium on major ETFs and many individual stocks. I can't say with any certainty, but I believe the current strength likely won't last. We could see... READ MORE
The stock market has a mind of its own, so I never like to say that it MUST do one thing or another. But I'm firmly in the camp of this being a cyclical bear market, rather than a secular bear market. Historically, cyclical bear markets within secular... READ MORE
Trying to call bottoms is a difficult exercise, but human behavior can be quite predictable. Long-term investors are definitely long-term....as long as the market goes higher. But when we see the type of selling and panic that we've experienced these past few weeks, even the most disciplined... READ MORE
Enjoying the ride? I've made a conscious decision to sit this wild ride out. I write a Daily Market Report (DMR) to our EarningsBeats.com members every day and last Tuesday (February 25th), I wrote the following (an excerpt): "I'm bullish. I've remained... READ MORE
100 component stocks. 99 losers and 1 winner last week. That's how negative the breadth was for the week. I'm not surprised that a biotechnology stock ($DJUSBT) was the sole winner. While the coronavirus negatively impacted nearly all stocks last week, biotech names that offer potential... READ MORE
The selling we saw this week was one for the ages. Yes, I've been extremely bullish for a long time and it's primarily because of the economic environment. There's never been a time when we've been looking at moderate growth, historically-low interest... READ MORE
The selloff has been sharp, it's been fast, and it's been severe. And it may not be over. Huge spikes in the Volatility Index ($VIX) establish major market bottoms and Thursday's VIX close at 39 certainly qualifies as that. The following chart shows you... READ MORE
One week ago, the U.S. stock market was euphoric and it had a right to be. Companies that have been able to grow earnings rapidly in a historically low interest rate environment, with rates likely to move even lower, were seeing those earnings valued at a record level. GDP... READ MORE
I heard one unmistakeable sound on Thursday and Friday. It was the sound of market makers driving away in Brinks trucks, you know, the kind that transports boatloads of money. Before I delve into the thievery that took place on Wall Street last week, let me first remind you of... READ MORE
I write about this a lot. Putting a group of stocks together that have (a) beaten Wall Street revenue and EPS estimates in its latest quarter, (b) belong to one of the "favored" industry groups on Wall Street, and (c) show strong technicals, including bullish volume trends leads... READ MORE
I've never really thought about it before, but putting together a portfolio is very similar to drafting NFL or NBA players. The idea in professional sports is to select someone who you believe will provide a major positive impact on your organization and to establish a winning tradition,... READ MORE
Embrace this rally. As far as bull markets go, this is truly the Perfect Storm. Never in my lifetime have I seen a stock market environment where we're experiencing modest growth, strong jobs, lower-than-target inflation, historically-low treasury yields and a Fed that honestly should cut rates again. If... READ MORE
Below is today's Daily Market Report that I send out to EarningsBeats.com members every day, usually between noon and 1pm EST. Enjoy! Executive Market Summary * Wall Street opened lower, but key indices are now flirting with positive territory * January CPI indicated inflation remains modest * The 10 year... READ MORE
I've written about this industry group on many, many occasions, but up until today, we've simply seen a bunch of false hopes. Today is THE BREAKOUT. We gapped above resistance and, thus far, are adding to early gains. A strong afternoon would seal the deal -... READ MORE
I see so many comparisons to what was happening in 2007, as if the current market environment somehow should be compared to 2007. It shouldn't. 2007 was part of a 12-13 year secular bear market. 2020 is part of a lengthy secular bull market. The bullish boundaries of... READ MORE
I know. I know. It's been the worst sector and the second worst sector isn't even close. Look at this sector leaderboard for the past six months: The XLE is the ONLY sector in negative territory. Its SCTR score is 2.3. What the heck could... READ MORE
The selling was coming, we just weren't quite sure when. Well, it's here now, so how long might it last and how much pain might we endure? Both questions are difficult to answer, but I do know the 3-4 month channel has been broken. That tells... READ MORE
The selling that we saw last week was long overdue. Many are panicking over the coronavirus, which is easy to do when it's the only thing that the media is covering. After all, there has to be some fundamental reason that will lead to the next market collapse,... READ MORE
Relative strength. It seems easy enough. Wall Street meets with management teams continuously throughout the year (except during quiet periods). Analysts evaluate not only business strategy, but also business integrity. It's an opportunity for executives to lay out their business plans and strategies to the people that matter... READ MORE
At the start of the week, I held a members-only webinar at EarningsBeats.com to provide my "predictions" of upcoming earnings reports based off of the charts. I've turned it into a formal study where I've been summarizing results all week. The best charts... READ MORE
If a company is likely to report strong results, Wall Street knows it. Analysts have met with management and discussed targets, competition, product strategies, margins, etc. If they like what they hear, they return to their offices and buy for themselves and clients. That's how it works. Astute... READ MORE
Special Event Below is a sample of the Daily Market Report that I sent to EarningsBeats.com members this afternoon. Also, I'd like to extend an invite to everyone to join me at 4:30pm EST today as I will host our "Sneak Preview - Q4 Earnings&... READ MORE
I believe all 5 FAANG stocks - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Alphabet (GOOGL) - will end 2020 higher than they started. The question is, how much higher? Which one is THE stock to own? If you asked me which company I believe is simply the... READ MORE
Calling tops in a secular bull market advance is not typically a wise thing to do, because it rarely works. But it's very difficult to ignore sentiment readings that border on the absurd. Three months ago, the S&P 500 broke out of a bullish ascending triangle... READ MORE
In my last article, I discussed the possibility that we could see a short-term top form and many of those warning signs continue to persist. Of course, in a secular bull market advance, trying to predict short-term tops can be a constant disappointment as prices seemingly rise every single day.... READ MORE
Hey, I'm bullish longer-term so I'm not talking about a major bear market ahead, nothing like that. But as a short-term trader, I need to heed the signs of a potential top and I'm beginning to see them. There are a number of these... READ MORE
A common question I hear now that we've seen a significant advance in U.S. equities is, "when should I get in"? Well, we're in a secular bull market. It started in 2013 and won't end, in my opinion, until the end... READ MORE
Let's first look at our sector SPDR funds, in SCTR order: It's important to note that SCTR scores are calculated as of today. Performance ranks will change based on whether we look at one day performance, one week performance, six months performance, etc. SCTRs remain the... READ MORE
December nonfarm payrolls were just released and they were solid, though slightly below expectations. They suggest moderate economic improvement and the very slight increase in average hourly earnings confirms that the labor market, while tight, is not too tight. That combination, moderate growth and tame inflation, along with the reduced... READ MORE
Happy New Year and welcome to a brand new decade! A century later, I believe the stock market is about to repeat itself as I'm expecting another roaring 20's! And yes, that could lead to another rough 30's decade, but let's worry... READ MORE