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How Do Stock Market Tops Form? Part 1
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Wow, this is a loaded question and it will take a few articles to try to address it. For every bear market, we seem to have a different reason. Since the turn of the century, we've seen two significant bear markets - one that gripped the market from 2000...
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Utilities Running Out Of Power?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Perhaps one of the biggest mistakes we make is to misinterpret normal stock market rotation as a predecessor to a bear market. During a bull market, money rotates from sector to sector, from industry group to industry group and from stock to stock. Of course there are outperformers throughout a...
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Are Banks Topping or Pausing Before Next Rally?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I know looking at one industry group is taking a very small sample of the entire stock market, but throughout much of history the stock market has performed strongest when financial stocks, especially banks, at least go along for the ride. Let me show you a long-term chart of...
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Using the SCTR Rankings To Boost Your Trading Results
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
From a technical perspective, the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) makes a TON of sense. It's a very quick way to see how a stock is performing relative to its peers (ie, large cap, mid cap, small cap). These rankings are based on technical scores developed by John Murphy...
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Netflix (NFLX) Impresses With Blowout Earnings
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
After the close on Wednesday, Netflix (NFLX) topped revenue and earnings expectations and promptly rose to all-time highs. NFLX had been consolidating in bullish sideways fashion for over one year following its prior uptrend. Volume today is extremely heavy suggesting accumulation and, in my opinion, likely higher prices ahead....
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Smith & Wesson (SWHC) Fires Back At Its Naysayers
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Better than expected earnings and technical price action follow through is perhaps my favorite combination when trading a stock. My background in public accounting leaves a warm place in my heart for management teams that execute on their business plan and are able to surprise Wall Street to the upside....
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Small Caps Print Bearish Shooting Star Doji
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
On Monday, the Russell 2000 ($RUT) was breaking out to an all-time high intraday. Unfortunately, it wasn't confirmed on the close as this benchmark of small cap stocks reversed late in the day. It not only left a bearish tail to the upside and closed at its...
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Tax Time Selling: Fact or Fiction?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Most everyone knows that Uncle Sam is waiting anxiously for April 15th to arrive. Don't look now, but it's almost here! Even if you decide to extend the filing date for your tax return, any balance due must be paid now. The payment generally cannot be...
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Rising VIX Could Spell Trouble Ahead
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
The volatility index ($VIX) charts the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. It's a sentiment indicator that measures the stock market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 day period. I could spend time talking about square roots, variance swaps and standard deviations,...
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SouFun Holdings (SFUN) Soaring With China Rally
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
SFUN serves as a real estate internet portal in the Peoples Republic of China and is rallying strongly today on the heels of overall strength in most Chinese shares. Technically, the downtrend in SFUN has been reversed on a series of positive technical developments. First, SFUN had been in a...
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Semiconductors: Consolidating or Reversing?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Technology stocks have been lagging throughout 2015. One of the primary reasons for their uninspiring performance has been the underwhelming action in the Dow Jones US Semiconductor Index ($DJUSSC). Before we delve into the semiconductors, let's see what technology as a whole is facing - take a look at...
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Weakening Dollar Providing Short-Term Opportunity In Oil
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
FMC Technologies (FTI) provides technology solutions for the energy sector. Much of the energy space has struggled for the last several months for a number of reasons, one of which has been the higher dollar. The rising greenback has provided a headwind for energy companies, but with the suddenly weak...
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Negative Divergence Hampers Electrical Components & Equipment Stocks
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Two months ago, there weren't many better looking industry groups than the Dow Jones US Electrical Components & Equipment Index ($DJUSEC). The breakout above price resistance was clear, but after a continuing advance of another 10% into mid-March, the DJUSEC ran into technical issues. Take a look...
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Buying Is Easy, When Should I Sell? Part 4 (Final)
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Generally, I review my trading positions on a stock by stock basis. If I've hit my target on one, I try to be disciplined and take the profits - or at the very least partial profits. If my stop loss has been triggered, it's time to take...
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Buying Is Easy, When Should I Sell? Part 3
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I discussed how using the MACD in concert with price/volume can be instrumental in making a high probability exit in Parts 1 and 2. Today, I want to focus on candlesticks. I'm a fan of Steve Nison's and have read his books on candlesticks. The...
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Buying Is Easy, When Should I Sell? Part 2
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Let's continue the discussion from yesterday. Broadcom (BRCM) had fallen back in late January to test both price and multiple gap supports, with an intraday move beneath both that suggested we could be witnessing a breakdown. By the close, however, BRCM printed a very bullish reversing candlestick (hammer)...
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Buying Is Easy, When Should I Sell? Part 1
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Trading successfully certainly requires a ton of patience and discipline. Emotions run high when it comes to your money and the prospects of losing it. Panicked selling is the easiest kind because you simply can't take the pain any longer. The best way to rid yourself of the...
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Colfax (CFX) Bottoming in Reverse Head & Shoulders Fashion?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Industrial machinery ($DJUSFE) stocks have been consolidating in what some technicians might argue is a bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern. If the group does eventually see money rotate back into it, Colfax Corp (CFX) could be a direct beneficiary. CFX lost 40% of its market capitalization in the second...
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Can You Time The Stock Market?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Well, I suppose it depends on your view and what you believe in. For me, there's no question about it. The stock market can be timed as history repeats itself over and over and over again. The stock market timing that I'm talking about, though, isn&...
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Lexmark (LXK) Challenges Wedge Resistance On Increasing Volume
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Lexmark (LXK) announced after the closing bell on Tuesday that it was acquiring enterprise software company Kofax (KFX) for $1 billion, its largest acquisition in its history. Traders were initially excited by the announcement, driving LXK's stock price higher by more than 11% and LXK cleared bullish wedge...
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Flying High With Aerospace ($DJUSAS) and United Technologies (UTX)
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
The aerospace industry ($DJUSAS) is a component of the industrial sector (XLI). Industrials have been a key driver of the S&P 500 since the turn of the century. There's a clear relative uptrend channel in play that was broken temporarily in 2009 as the 2007-2009...
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Interface (TILE) Floors It, Approaches Major Resistance
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
TILE is an industrial goods company that designs, produces and sells modular carpet products internationally. Strong quarterly results reported in February, exceeding Wall Street estimates, has sent TILE's shares surging 27% higher in just the past month. Major overhead price resistance is approaching, however, so it will be...
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Aggressive Small Cap Indices Break Out Again
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Both the Russell 2000 Index ($RUT) and S&P 600 Small Cap Index (SML) broke out to all-time highs last week as money continued to rotate towards aggressive small cap stocks and that should be seen as a bullish sign for equities. In the case of the $RUT,...
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Dissecting The Technology Sector
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Technology has outperformed every other sector over the past year - except for healthcare. So it begs the question - is there any more gas left in the technology tank? We've seen money rotate to various sectors throughout the past year. Most of the industry groups within technology remain bullish...
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Many "Under The Surface" Technical Signals Strong
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I'm not ready to give up on this bull market. While anything is certainly possible, traders are not positioning themselves for a steep market decline. Perhaps we'll see a bit of selling, maybe even a correction, but the longer-term bull market still remains intact in...
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Crane (CR) Confirms "W" Bottom, Testing Support
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Crane (CR) is a part of the Industrial Machinery ($DJUSFE) space, which has been consolidating since last summer and is poised to break out once again. CR printed a "W" bottom in December and January, with this bottom confirmed with the high volume gap up and breakout in...
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Home Construction ($DJUSHB) Tests Triangle Support
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
March has been a little rough for the stock market thus far, but there are a few areas where the pullback has represented welcome relief. Home construction ($DJUSHB) is one of those areas. Cyclical stocks, of which home construction is a part, seemed to take a much needed breather in...
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Exploration and Production Index ($DJUSOS) Bottoming?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
While most of the U.S. stock market enjoys quite a bull market dating back to March 2009, that's not the case currently for exploration and production stocks ($DJUSOS) - at least not in the near- to intermediate-term. A topping head & shoulders pattern confirmed in late November...
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Cisco Systems (CSCO) Tests 14 Year High
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Since the tech bubble popped in the early 2000s, CSCO has slowly risen from the ashes. It fell a remarkable 90% from its high in 2000 to its low in late 2002. Keep in mind, however, that it made a parabolic move higher prior to this drop. 2000 started a...
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KLA-Tencor (KLAC) Testing Key Support Zone
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Semiconductors ($DJUSSC) are one of the worst areas of the market today and have been one of the worst areas of technology over the past week. KLA-Tencor (KLAC) has hit a key area of support, however, and certainly presents a much better reward to risk opportunity. 60.53 represents...
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Internet Stocks Showing Renewed Relative Strength
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
When we look back at last week's action, a few things stand out to me. First, the aggressive sectors - financials, consumer discretionary, technology and industrials - held up quite well on a relative basis. That should be seen as a positive. The worst performing group was utilities, which makes...
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Cardtronics (CATM) Fills Earnings Gap
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Cardtronics (CATM) reported stellar quarterly results on February 4th after the close, beating Wall Street estimates with respect to both revenues ($283.9 million actual vs. $270.6 million estimate) and EPS ($.64 actual vs. $.57 estimate). At the open on February 5th, CATM gapped higher to 40.00 from...
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Welcome to Trading Places!
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Hello! I'm Tom. Welcome to my new blog - "Trading Places with Tom Bowley."
First off, I'd like to thank you for stopping by. I'm thrilled to be writing blogs and hosting webinars exclusively at StockCharts.com while doing so among the finest...
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BABA: Breaking Down or Reversing With Positive Divergence?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
On Monday, BABA closed at 84.00, its lowest close since its IPO in September. However, that close was very close to support and BABA is currently oversold with its RSI below 30 and its stochastic reading at 11. Note there's a long-term positive divergence that'...
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Defensive Stocks Lagging Although One Group Poised For Rebound
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
We've seen a very nice rally in U.S. equities during February, erasing all of January's losses with most of our major indices now breaking out to all-time highs. The NASDAQ has been leading the charge and that indicates that we're in a...
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Consumer Discretionary Stocks Fuel Rally
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
There's been much said and written about rapidly-declining crude oil prices ($WTIC). But one thing makes perfect sense to me. When American consumers save TONS of money when filling up at the pump, they tend to spend it elsewhere. It's simply what we like to...
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Key Tests Approaching in Technology
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
The nearly six year bull market lives on, but the bulls have been taking several body blows of late. Whether this bull market continues could depend on a couple of key industry groups within the technology space.
First, let's take a look at computer hardware ($DJUSCR). This is...
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Industrial Machinery Index Seems Poised for 2015 Rally
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
It's easy to follow the crowd and buy what keeps going higher. But generally larger gains can be found in healthy areas of the market where we've seen months of consolidation, awaiting that next breakout. As an example, it wasn't that long ago that...
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Business Support Services Index Breaks Out After Long Base
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Stock market action played out the past two weeks almost perfectly according to historical plan. In my last article, I discussed the bearish tendencies of equities from December 7th through December 15th and the S&P 500 promptly lost 85 points, or more than 4% during this period in...
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Small Caps Ready to Make a December Run?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
As a student of stock market history, I'm often astonished by historical facts about market performance. December is generally a very solid month for equities and no index benefits more from this seasonal bullishness than the Russell 2000. Since 1987, the Russell 2000 has risen 24 of 27...
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