There are a lot of people worrying about a major market top, and there are just as many (mostly in the fundamental camp) confident that we're on the verge of another major up leg. We can see the logic of both positions, so how can we sort it... READ MORE
In this edition of Trading Simplified, Dave brings more lessons with the market update. He continues his series "If I Can Do It" with establishing Free Positions and the discussion "Listening to the Database." Dave also presents a Mystery Chart Follow-Up, then brings 3 new Mystery... READ MORE
We knew that the VIX readings were sliding lower, but today it finished at 19.79. The VIX has not closed below 20 since the 2020 bull market top. We invert our VIX because we view the VIX as a sentiment indicator. Sentiment is contrarian, so in order to have... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, I begin with a quick look at last week's rotations in asset classes and sectors. Then, I look into the RRG mailbag and present in-depth discussion of a recent 3-part question that came in. All three elements that... READ MORE
The Equal Weight version of the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors shows an interesting divergence in rotation for the Consumer Discretionary sector. Two weeks ago, 3/2, I showed the RRG for small-cap sectors and analyzed the discrepancies between the small-cap and the large-cap sector rotations. Here also, the... READ MORE
I have learned over my career to be skeptical. I have learned to question my investment thesis and actively argue the other side of any position to challenge my own analysis. I have learned to actively search out people that disagree with me and try to see what they are... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin give us a complete market overview, including Dollar, Gold, Gold Miners, Crude Oil and Bonds. Carl specifically addresses problems in crypto right now, as well as a review of valuations as they continue to get more and more overbought. Erin tells you... READ MORE
Cannabis has seen a huge increase this year as the Biden administration took office. Though it is not completely clear if the Federal government will push for widespread legalization, its last bill to further decriminalize cannabis makes it easier for states to push their own legalization agendas. With 11 states... READ MORE
The longer-term indicators have been bullish on bond yields (bearish on prices) for a while now. However, they are now being joined by a number of commentators offering a similar view, which makes me uncomfortable. Don't get me wrong, the indicators are still pointing to a primary yield... READ MORE
Recently, we talked about Transportation (IYT) and Retail (XRT) sectors as indicators for market strength/weakness. Transportation shows the movement of goods and travel expectations, while retail shows the consumer sentiment side. Both help us understand investor expectations of the economy reopening and therefore help us understand if we are... READ MORE
We've been in a solid secular bull market for years, but the past couple years have been difficult for sure. Still, we've seen plenty of stocks breaking out over and over again (ie, autos, renewable energy, etc.). But not all stocks have participated, even those in... READ MORE
As its name suggests, multiple timeframe analysis looks at two or more timeframes to find a setup. Typically, the longer timeframe is used to define the long-term trend and set the trading bias. The shorter timeframe is then used to find setups in harmony with the bigger trend. Nothing is... READ MORE
In a truncated week, the Indian equities failed to take any directional cues and traded all over the places over for four trading sessions, before ultimately ending the week with a modest gain. The start of the week stayed volatile, with the NIFTY trading in a wide range. However, the... READ MORE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average powered to its fifth consecutive record high today as investors bought shares of companies that'll benefit from a strong reopening of the U.S. economy. Rising yields have also triggered the recent rotation away from growth-oriented stocks, including large-cap tech-related shares, into more... READ MORE
At the time of my last ChartWatchers article two weeks ago, the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) had just closed at 1.46% after reaching an intra-week high at 1.61%. Well, we didn't stop there. The TNX had a big day on Friday, gaining nearly 11 basis points... READ MORE
I have learned over my career to be skeptical. I have learned to question my investment thesis and actively argue the other side of any position to challenge my own analysis. I have learned to actively search out people that disagree with me and try to see what they are... READ MORE
Is it time to buy the dip? In this episode of StockCharts TV'sThe MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reviews new areas of the market, as well as select stocks that are showing relative strength and are poised to trade higher. She also shares her outlook on recovery areas that... READ MORE
The Growth/Value relationship is always interesting to keep an eye on -- but even more so recently. For a long period of time, roughly from late 2018 until Q3 2020, Growth stocks were beating Value hands down. The chart above shows the Growth/Value relationship in the big pane... READ MORE
10-YEAR YIELD EXCEEDS 1.60%...After a modest consolidation, bond yields are spiking again. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield climbing 10 basis points to 1.63% which puts it at the highest level in more than a year. The weekly bars in Chart 2... READ MORE
Buying is easy, selling is much harder. In this week's edition of Chartwise Women, Erin and Mary Ellen concentrate on exit strategies. Follow along as both explain how they set stops and which key signals they use to exit their holdings. It doesn't have to be... READ MORE
NASDAQ AND TECH SPDR REGAIN 50-DAY AVERAGE...The tech-dominated Nasdaq market led a broad rally in stocks today. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index gaining 2.5% and trading back above its 50-day moving average. It was the strongest of the three major stock indexes. The Dow Industrials and... READ MORE
The market is confused and choppy. This can be seen by looking at the major indices, as most disagree with each other. This is important because when the overall market moves together, it makes trading easier as it allows traders to better time their entries based on pullbacks and breakouts.... READ MORE
TECH NEARS OVERHEAD RESISTANCE... While the Dow and S&P 500 are trading higher today, with the Dow in record territory, the tech-dominated Nasdaq market continues to lag behind the rest of the market. Chart 1 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) nearing a test of its 50-day moving average... READ MORE
In this edition of Trading Simplified, Dave returns to follow up on his last presentation. He focuses on his core methodology and shows how you, as a trader, can do it as well. Finally, Dave shows how to establish free positions. This video was originally broadcast on March 10th, 2021.... READ MORE
Back in the opening week of the yearl I wrote an article entitled Four Charts and Four Themes of the First Half of 2021. Three of them - higher stocks, higher commodities and value starting to outperform growth - are so far on track, but my negative analysis concerning US... READ MORE
When looking for stocks that will continue to perform in 2021, we can look at the megatrends that will continue to grow considering the pandemic will be in the rear-view mirror. On top of the list of trends is blockchain technology-and alternative currency. With Bitcoin above 52k and stocks like... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, I start with a look at what happened last week in terms of rotation for asset classes and sectors. After that, I put these rotations in longer-term perspective using weekly charts and Relative Rotation Graphs while overlaying the 12-month rolling... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin dive into the SPY, particularly into the Technology Sector with Carl reviewing the FAANG+. Erin gives us a sector overview and discusses the new rotation into defensive areas of the market. She covers her favorite sectors and defensive industry groups to consider,... READ MORE
Monday's strange price action looks as though the market shrugged off the stimulus money in some areas, yet not others. While there are many factors at play, the most notable shift is in big tech, which continues to show weakness. The tech-heavy index Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) sold off... READ MORE
In last weekend's Part 1 of 2, I discussed what divergences are and provided an analogy. Divergences can flash a refueling warning light during a long-term journey higher. If you recall, I illustrated it by using Starbucks (SBUX) as an example: Divergences can mark long-term tops, but I&... READ MORE
ENERGY STILL IN THE LEAD... After a hectic week when a rise in bond yields caused some profit-taking in technology stocks and the Nasdaq market, a strong jobs report on Friday helped stocks end the week on a strong note. One of the factors driving bond yields higher is expectations... READ MORE
Both the trend and the sentiment in the equity markets were affected due to a spike in the US Treasury Bond yields, which had its obvious effect on the emerging markets in general. The spikes and the strengthening US Dollar index caused some gap down opening and corrective moves in... READ MORE
This is an update to an important blog I wrote three years ago. Investors have once again been misled by the media and bamboozled by ETF sponsors such as iShares, SPDRs and Invesco. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are not the panacea for every asset class as they all want you... READ MORE
Technology, as reflected in the tech-dominated NASDAQ Composite, peaked as a group in 2000 and sank in popularity for the next 3 years. Since then, as shown by the relative graph in Chart 1, it has recaptured all of that lost ground. Now, its long-term KST may have started to... READ MORE
Carl Swenlin ingeniously created the newest DecisionPoint indicators, called the "Golden Cross Index" and "Silver Cross Index". It is actually a simple concept, and one he and I were both surprised hadn't been created yet. Most are familiar with a "golden cross,"... READ MORE
The market has stopped the bleeding with a rally into Friday's close. The Small Caps index Russell 2000 (IWM) held over its 50-day moving average of 213.40. Additionally, the retail (XRT) and transportation (IYT) sectors never broke under their 50-DMAs, with IYT going on to clear its... READ MORE
Is it time to buy the dip? In this episode of StockCharts TV'sThe MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reviews what to be on the lookout for with stocks reversing their downtrends, while also highlighting attractive charts in strong areas of the market. This video was originally recorded on March... READ MORE
Everyone is giving up on growth stocks, especially given the sharp rise in rates, with the 10 Year US Treasury Note rising as high as 1.62% on Friday. And now, any good news - i.e., a solid jobs report - is seen as bad news, with concerns of... READ MORE
Two items are dominating the news narrative right now: the rise in interest rates and the decline in tech stocks. Are rising rates really an issue for tech stocks? The charts suggest that the evidence is mixed, at best. In fact, it is not very hard to find periods when... READ MORE
In this week's edition of Chartwise Women, Mary Ellen and Erin share their outlook for the current market while also reviewing select growth, high-yield and headline-making stocks that have positive charts in an otherwise dismal environment. This video was originally recorded on March 4th, 2021. Click on the... READ MORE