For a very long time equities have been the dominating asset class, stuck at the right-hand side of the Relative Rotation Graph showing six different asset classes. That situation is now changing. Equities (SPY) is still at the right hand (positive) side of the RRG but inside the weakening quadrant,... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 DIP BELOW 200-DAY LINES... Stocks started the day under pressure. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading below its 200-day moving average this morning (before recovering later in the day). A close below the red line would signal that a test of... READ MORE
Market Recap for May 2, 2018 Well, the Fed spoke and Wall Street listened. While there weren't any dire warnings from the Fed about inflation, simply acknowledging that inflation could be returning to its target 2% rate spooked traders for an afternoon. If you were wondering if the... READ MORE
* Breadth Falls Short. * Chart Links and Video. * Looking for a Breadth Thrust. * Still a Correction? * %Above 200-day Indicator Waffles. * The Weight of the Evidence. * Where to Find the Symbols. Breadth Falls Short Enthusiasm among the bulls is waning and this is reflected in the breadth stats over the last two... READ MORE
As noted in the signal table below, the Dow logged a new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signal. I've included the chart below with commentary. The other important news is two new negative divergences showing on the DP indicator charts for the short term and intermediate term! And,... READ MORE
* Dollar Index breaks to the upside * Dollar sympathy relationships * The Aussie Dollar close to a mega signal for itself and commodities Dollar Index breaks to the upside Chart 1 shows that the Dollar Index falsely broke to the downside at the very beginning of the year. In the last couple... READ MORE
Market Recap for May 1, 2018 The Dow Jones led the early selling on Tuesday as traders were not impressed with quarterly earnings results from two pharma giants, Pfizer (PFE, -3.31%) and Merck (MRK, -1.51%). Both were down considerably more in the morning session, but rebounded to make... READ MORE
It has been a rough year for Alphabet, also known as Google, but the stock is still in a long-term uptrend and firming near a solid support zone. This could give way to a bounce. First, the stock advanced some 30% and hit a 52-week high in January. Second, the... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX HITS NEW 2018 HIGH... Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Dollar Index (UUP) rising today to the highest level since last December. It's also climbed back above its 200-day moving average and a falling trendline extending back to the start of 2017. The UUP may now be... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, April 30, 2018 Monday was a "rinse and repeat" session from Friday. We opened higher, sold off for 90 minutes, then consolidated the balance of the day. Since Thursday's close, the NASDAQ has fallen 0.75%, but it seems like much more... READ MORE
All of our monthly charts went "final" today so it is time for a review of the current signals and their implications. The DecisionPoint Scoreboards show BUY signals on all of the four major indexes and that is not changing today. However the DP Scoreboards don't... READ MORE
Visa (V) is leading the stock market as it breaks out of a triangle and records a fresh new high. The stock is now setting its sights on its big rival, Mastercard. The chart below shows Visa in the top window with a steady advance from May to January and... READ MORE
* Throwbacks after Breakouts. * Triangles within Bigger Uptrends. * Stock with Fresh Breakouts. * Corrections within Uptrends. * Two Dozen Strong Uptrends. As noted in Friday's commentary, the performance of stocks in the S&P 500 is split and it a stock picker's market. I am even seeing divisions... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, April 27, 2018 The news heading into Friday couldn't have been much better. The initial reading of Q1 GDP came in stronger than expected at 2.3% vs. 2.0%. We had blowout earnings from key leaders including Amazon.com (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and... READ MORE
Two events happened this week that captured the attention of Wall Street. There was much buzz about both and they seem to be related. On Tuesday the stock market took a big tumble, with the Dow Jones Industrials falling 424 points. The next day the Ten-Year US Treasury Yield ($TNX)... READ MORE
The Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) switched from NEUTRAL to BUY when the 20EMA crossed up through the 50EMA. For me this is a low-confidence signal because XLY has been moving sideways, with price chopping above and below those EMAs with enough range to cause the dreaded whipsaw. Also undermining my... READ MORE
If you didn't catch my interview on Wednesday morning, I joined Tom Bowley and Erin Swenlin on their StockCharts TV show, MarketWatchers LIVE, for a special presentation: "The Two Pillars of Probability Enhancement". I demonstrated the asset allocation strategies and routines I use to reduce risk... READ MORE
* Small-caps Continue to Lead. * IJR Remains with Bullish Continuation Pattern. * Large-cap Techs are Lagging, but Trending Up. * A Divided Market. * The S&P 500 is Stuck in the Middle. * %Above 50-day EMA Struggling. * Countering the Downward Breadth Thrusts. * Healthcare Perks Up. * Biotech ETFs Get Oversold Bounces. * Notes from the... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, April 26, 2018 Two familiar areas - technology (XLK, +1.82%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, +1.62%) - saw money rotate their way on Thursday, with especially strong action in both internets ($DJUSNS, +4.11%) and semiconductors ($DJUSSC, +2.35%) leading the technology space. Discretionary stocks... READ MORE
Not surprisingly, the NDX which had triggered a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL yesterday, whipsawed into a new PMO BUY Signal. With a rally that moved price higher by 2.08%, the PMO was jerked back up. Unfortunately, the margin remains thin between the PMO and its signal line so... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET REBOUND... Stocks are enjoying a rebound today off chart support near 200-day moving average lines. And the Nasdaq is leading it higher. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) rising 2% today to outpace other stock indexes. After finding support from just above its 200-day... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, April 25, 2018 Wall Street was able to find equity buyers yesterday, despite the 10 year treasury yield's ($TNX) first close above 3.00% since 2014. The Volatility Index ($VIX) settled back down after approaching 20 for the second consecutive day. It has closed... READ MORE
* SPY Tests Upswing Support. * Finance Sector Holds Up Best. * Two Down and Three to Go. * KRE Still Looking Positive. * Bullish Continuation Patterns in Energy-Related ETFs. * A Few Telcos Come Alive. * Four Stocks to Watch. SPY Tests Upswing Support... I marked upswing support for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY)... READ MORE
* Technical position for yields still looks bullish * International rates look higher * Dollar breaks out, but will it hold? * Finely balanced Gold picture needs some guidance from the Dollar If you have punched up the symbol $TNX, you will know that the 10-year yield has recently hit 3%. Chances are that... READ MORE
All four DecisionPoint Scoreboard indexes logged ST Trend Model SELL signals yesterday and now the NDX has added insult to injury with a new PMO SELL signal. This SELL signal was generated when the NDX Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossed below its signal line. Below is the daily chart for... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) broke down with a sharp decline the last five days and this pushed RSI(5) below 30 for a short-term oversold reading. The breakdown is bearish, but it has also created a short-term mean-reversion opportunity. I first introduced a mean-reversion trading system using RSI in... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, April 24, 2018 Pre-market action on Tuesday was solid and that's just about where the bullishness ended. With the Kentucky Derby just around the corner, let me summarize Tuesday's action from the opening bell in different fashion: "And they're... READ MORE
This is a bulletin to let you know that the DecisionPoint Short-Term Trend Model has generated new SELL signals for all four indexes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. After the sizable decline to finish off today, the 5-EMAs all tumbled below the 20-EMAs. The 20-EMAs were below the 50-EMA so it... READ MORE
SECTOR ETFS TAKE A BIG HIT ... The three stock ETFs shown below are leading the stock market sharply lower. Chart 1 shows the Industrial SPDR (XLI) losing more than 3% and once again threatening its 200-day average. Caterpillar (CAT) is one of its biggest losers with a drop of -6%... READ MORE
Market Recap for April 23, 2018 A significant bullish breakout in the U.S. Dollar ($USD) occurred on Monday and the push higher is likely to just be beginning. Before I look at possible ramifications, let's look at the chart itself: Monday's close was the USD&... READ MORE
* SPY Pulls Back within Channel. * Monitoring Upswings in the Big Sectors. * Regional Bank ETF Extends Short-term Bounce. * Smelly SOXX. * Google Holds the Gap. * Nike Forms Flag within Triangle. SPY Pulls Back within Channel... There are three stages to a trend reversal. First, there is the bottom picking stage when momentum... READ MORE
There was one indicator that gave us a very good warning sign just prior to the Jan/Feb correction. The same warning sign is flashing right now. The Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) have a breadth version and a volume version. When we see divergent tops on these indicators, bad things... READ MORE
Costco (COST) is showing some upside leadership this year with a triangle breakout and challenge to the January high. Long-term trend identification is important because it sets my bias going forward. My bias is bullish when the long-term trend is up and this means I favor bullish patterns over bearish... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, April 20, 2018 The big news on Friday was the bond market. The 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) closed just a tad above 2.95% and that was the highest close since late-2013/early-2014. The TNX has climbed another couple basis points in early action this... READ MORE
Periodically I write an article that reviews the past few months of articles. Why on Earth would I do this? Primarily for two reasons. One is that many new readers are involved and often they do not go back and look at the past articles. Two is that my articles... READ MORE
Let’s review the concept of the ‘Creek’. This is a nuanced Wyckoff principle, but once understood, it becomes a very powerful trading edge. Support and Resistance zones are typically understood to exert their influence at linear price levels. Horizontal lines are drawn on charts to represent these important levels.... READ MORE
Editor's Note:This article was originally published inJohn Murphy's Market Messageon Thursday, April 19th at12:11pmET BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS NEAR AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT... This week's surge in commodity prices is starting to attract a lot of attention. That's because rising commodity... READ MORE
One of the most over used cliches in the stock market, in my opinion, is "go away in May". First of all, it's simply bad investment advice. Since 1950 on the S&P 500, the May 1st to July 17th period has produced annualized returns... READ MORE
The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is mostly used as a momentum oscillator, but chartists can also use it to define the trend, even the long-term trend. Chartists interested in trend signals can simply ignore the wiggles and the signal line, and instead focus on zero line crossovers. As noted in... READ MORE
* The primary trend * The short-term picture * The Dollar, Copper and Gold The Dollar Index showed some green shoots at the end of the week that might lead to greater things. That’s important in its own right, but since the dollar often moves inversely with commodities and gold its direction... READ MORE