* The underlying trend of improving confidence continues * Several indicators are pointing to some kind of a correction * Small caps are lagging The underlying trend of improving confidence continues The longer-term indicators monitoring the primary trend of the US stock market continue to point north. So too, do the various confidence... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, January 31, 2018 Following the heavy selling on Tuesday, the bulls were just hoping to stop the bleeding. I'd say they had some success as the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all finished in positive territory. Overall action was bifurcated, however,... READ MORE
* Filter Group 1: General Symbol Conditions. * Scanning Specific Indexes. * Filter Group 2: Broad Technical Conditions. * Cutting to the Chase with Indexes. * Eliminating a Sector or Industry Group. * Filter Group 3: Technical Signals. * Wendy's and Micron Make the Cut. * Conclusions and Complete Scan Code. Chartists use scans to narrow... READ MORE
S&P 500 IS DUE FOR A PAUSE ... There are a number of ways to tell when a market is stretched too far. My January 6 message pointed out that the 14-month RSI for the S&P 500 was the most overbought since the late 1990s (twenty years... READ MORE
The chart for CBS Corp (CBS) is already bad news and the news could get even worse. First and foremost, the long-term trend is clearly down as the stock hit a 52-week low in early November and remains below the falling 200-day SMA. The stock also broke below the May-June... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, January 30, 2018 This day was a long time coming. The U.S. stock market's uninterrupted surge to record all-time highs day after day, week after week and month after month needed a break. It needed relief. Yesterday that relief was found....and it... READ MORE
One chart that I have been watching very closely is the DecisionPoint Climactic Indicator chart. I use this chart to give me an idea of very short-term sentiment and how to use it to determine possible tops and bottoms. Today I'm seeing some extremes that could be telling... READ MORE
The other morning, I joined Tom Bowley and Erin Swenlin on their daily MarketWatchers LIVE web show. My appearance was part of the weekly "Everything StockCharts" segment, which covers important tips, tricks and other information that all StockCharts users can benefit from. The show got a little, well.... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, January 29, 2018 We saw something different in the U.S. stock market on Monday. We closed in negative territory on all of our major indices and we closed at or near lows for the day. There was little or no bargain hunting at the end... READ MORE
* VIX Disconnnet Signals Caution. * Charting Past Occurrences. * Correction Targets for the S&P 500. * More Industry Groups Join Correction. * 3 Semiconductor Stocks to Watch. VIX Disconnet Signals Caution The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) usually moves opposite the S&P 500, but this is not the... READ MORE
It is very tough to find weakness in the major indexes as they continue to fly higher. However, I was reviewing my DecisionPoint LIVE ChartList and noted that we are seeing a few warning signs on the small and mid-cap ETFs, IJR and IJH. Currently, both IJH and IJR have... READ MORE
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) broke out of a long consolidation and looks poised to hit new highs soon. The long-term trend is up as the stock surged to new highs with a 50+ percent advance from November 2016 to August 2017. Also note that the PPO(50,200,0) is... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, January 26, 2018 The bears were absolutely stymied on Friday as the major indices surged to unprecedented levels. Despite the very overbought conditions that have persisted on many indices for four months now, bulls dominated the action and show no signs of letting up. When you... READ MORE
We are still in the preliminary stages of defining tools that will be used in the rules-based trend following model. Here I want to explain a unique concept I call Compound Digital Measures. They are an advanced form of the Digital Measures discussed in the BaR-BTFM – 2 (Building a Rules-Based... READ MORE
The Relative Rotation Graph shows the positions of US sectors against SPY as of 26 Jan. Sometimes the rotational patterns are not so clear but in this example, there is one observation sending a screaming message: Avoid Real-Estate and Utilities. At the other end of the spectrum inside the leading... READ MORE
CRB INDEX ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT ... A couple of messages during the week showed the Bloomberg Commodity Index nearing a two-year high. It broke through those highs during the week. Today's message shows the more widely-followed Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index accomplishing a bullish breakout of its own by rising... READ MORE
* Dollar experiences a short-term reversal * Commodities are in a bull market but adversely affected near-term * Gold showing signs of tiredness but still within a base building process Dollar experiences a short-term reversal It’s a funny thing in markets, when you have just grown comfortable with a move, it sometimes... READ MORE
Our resident Intermarket and Business Cycle experts, John Murphy and Martin Pring, have done a masterful job of evaluating the recent emergence of commodity prices. One proxy for commodity prices, the Commodity Research Bureau Index ($CRB), has come to life after a decade long downtrend. Is this evidence of an... READ MORE
This week the market underwent a horrifying intraday reversal. Just kidding. There was a surprising reversal on Wednesday, but by the close SPY was virtually unchanged. We can see on the chart that at the intraday low the steep January rising trend line was barely tested. And in the context... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE SECTOR IS PLAYING CATCH-UP ... Healthcare stocks are off to a good start for the new year, and are one of the market's strongest sectors. That's a big change from the past three years when healthcare was one of the markets weakest laggards. That's... READ MORE
* New Highs in Major index ETFs (again). * SPY: As Boring as Boring Gets. * Materials SPDR Breaks Out of Bullish Pennant. * REIT SPDR Springs a Bear Trap. * XLI Forms Bullish Pennant. * Some Groups are Already Correcting. * ITB, IYT and SOXX Move into Corrective Mode. * TLT Holds Neckline Support (for now). * Oil... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, January 25, 2018 Utilities (XLU, +1.55%) easily enjoyed its best day of 2018 on Thursday as significant price support, combined with falling treasury yields, triggered an explosive move higher as buyers could not get enough of the beaten-down sector. Here's the chart: The... READ MORE
Many of you may not be aware, but DecisionPoint has charts for most of the volatility indexes in the DecisionPoint Market Indicator ChartPack. We're in the process of updating the ChartPack, but there's no reason you can't download it now and enjoy the plethora... READ MORE
* Looking for Future 52-week Highs. * 3 Stocks with Corrections after 52-week Highs. * Goldman Sachs Surges to a New High. * Two Materials Stocks with Recent Upturns. Looking for Future 52-week Highs Stocks in long-term uptrends are more likely to hit 52-week highs than stocks in downtrends. Furthermore, stocks that hit 52-week... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, January 24, 2018 Only the Dow Jones was able to end Wednesday's session in positive territory, but all of our major indices remain very strong with accelerating bullish price momentum. Sectors and industries have taken their turns leading U.S. stocks higher and yesterday... READ MORE
The DecisionPoint Scoreboards remain green as momentum is positive and price trends continue higher in this seemingly unending bull market rally. I'm seeing a few cracks in the pavement right now in the short-term indicators with a negative divergence between breadth and volume. USO began executing a bull... READ MORE
BRITISH POUND RISES WITH UK BOND YIELDS ... It's now official that the U.S. government wants a weaker dollar. Speaking in Switzerland, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that a weak dollar is good for the U.S. economy, and would help reduce the U.S. trade deficit. That'... READ MORE
The 10-year Treasury Yield peaked near 16% in 1982 and fell as a secular bear market took hold for over 30 years. After stabilizing the last few years, the 10-year Yield traced out a large bullish reversal pattern and confirmation would end the secular bear market. Note that the 10-yr... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, January 23, 2018 The tech-laden NASDAQ powered forward to new all-time highs on Friday, closing above 7400 for a second consecutive session and now approaching 7500. All of our major indices ended higher, except for the Dow Jones, which saw a last minute bout of selling... READ MORE
On Monday's MarketWatchers LIVE program during the "DecisionPoint Report", I highlighted a divergence between the Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs). I admitted that I hadn't seen a divergence lasting over a day or two. These are short-term indicators that generally travel in concert. The difference... READ MORE
DOLLAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES RISE... Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Dollar Index (UUP) falling today to the lowest level in three years. The dollar is losing ground against virtually all major foreign currencies. Most of the upward movement in the UUP is coming from buying of the... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, January 22, 2018 There was a lot of good things happening on Monday. First of all, one of the worst days historically has been the Monday after options expiration Friday. That historical weakness never materialized yesterday as all of our major indices trended up throughout the... READ MORE
* SPY Extends Extraordinary Run. * Biotech ETFs Lead Healthcare Sector. * Finance-Related ETFs Extend Breakouts. * Copper ETN Pulls Back within Trend. * Is Telecom Turning the Corner? SPY Extends Extraordinary Run The major index ETFs remain in strong uptrends, both short-term and long-term. The S&P 500 SPDR and Dow SPDR are... READ MORE
* Last week’s bearish dark cloud cover fails * These confidence ratios are breaking to the upside and that’s bullish for stocks Last week’s bearish dark cloud cover fails Last week I pointed out that many of the principal indexes had traced out bearish dark cloud cover candlestick patterns.... READ MORE
The chart for H&R Block (HRB) shows two corrective patterns, one confirmed and one working. First, HRB retraced around 61.8% of the February-August advance and formed A big wedge. The wedge pattern and the retracement amount are typical for corrections after a sharp advance. HRB broke out... READ MORE
Welcome to 2018! I was born in the 1940s and am delighted to be here. If you were a trend follower with reasonable stop placement, 2017 was a fabulous year. If you were a buy and hold investor in most stocks, then 2017 was a fabulous year. If you were... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, January 19, 2018 Strength resumed on Friday, with three of our four major indices closing at record highs. Only the Dow Jones managed to come up short as losses in Dow components IBM, General Electric (GE) and American Express (AXP) held back the index, although it... READ MORE
2017 was the year of the ‘Uni-Market’ where leading stocks, industry groups and indexes marched higher from start to finish. Many important stocks got into a lockstep trend beginning in 2016. Two-Way markets are more common and we should see more of this in 2018. Markets are typically a cacophony... READ MORE
The direction of currency markets tells us a lot about the relative strength (or weakness) of global markets. As a rule, stronger economies have stronger currencies, while weaker economies have weaker currencies. As a result, the direction of the U.S. dollar tells us whether to favor U.S. stocks... READ MORE
Earnings season is about to kick into high gear. Over the next few weeks thousands of companies will report their numbers. Some will beat expectations and some will disappoint. And some will present some great opportunities to make nice money, especially for those of you who are patient enough to... READ MORE