If you are looking for ways to manage risk in an increasingly volatile environment then you should start by searching for the "best of the best"; those companies that beat earnings expectations and have solid charts. This makes an awful lot of sense if you think about it;... READ MORE
Albert Einstein famously said, “If I had one hour to save the world, I would spend 55 minutes defining the problem and five minutes implementing the solution.” If you were in a life threatening situation and had only one hour before it proved fatal, what would you do? Einstein said... READ MORE
CRB INDEX IS TRADING AT LOWEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN A YEAR... Ever since Wednesday's Fed rate hike, and the press conference by Janet Yellen, I've been thinking a lot about inflation. I believe the Fed is underestimating how weak inflation really is. I also believe... READ MORE
* New Highs in Six Major index ETFs * Index AD Lines Hit New Highs * Mid-cap and Small-cap AD Volume Lines Lag * SPY Forms High Flag as QQQ Tests Support * IJR Leads for Four Weeks * Finance and Materials Lead New High List * Finance and Regional Bank SPDRs Hold Breakouts * Chemicals Lead Materials... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, June 15, 2017 There's been marked improvement in the relative strength of industrials (XLI, +0.60%) in recent weeks and that was on full display Thursday. Despite all of our major indices finishing lower, the XLI managed to end the session in positive territory... READ MORE
No new signal changes to report, but I do want to mention that the PMO for the NDX continues lower with no hesitation. For the other three indexes, the PMO BUY signals are intact, but short-term PMOs are now all declining. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is... READ MORE
One look at the 10 year treasury yield's ($TNX) decline the past several months provides proof that the bond market isn't exactly agreeing with the Federal Reserve's stated position that they see economic improvement in the months ahead. The Fed announced on Wednesday that... READ MORE
.... Does the VIX Add Any Value? .... Setting the Benchmark .... System Ground Rules .... Consulting, Software and Data .... Normalizing the VIX with the PPO .... Testing Different PPO Extremes .... Testing with the VIX PPO Histogram .... Conclusions and Caveat Emptor .... Does the VIX Add Any Value? The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX)... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, June 14, 2017 The FOMC concluded its two day meeting on Wednesday afternoon and, for the most part, followed its prior script. They stuck to their previous plan to raise interest rates for a third time in six months and maintain their forecast for another rate... READ MORE
Hello again, everyone! Just a quick note to tell you about an awesome new feature that we just rolled out. We've updated the Members' Dashboard so that it is now even more customizable and useful. The change is subtle - you would probably miss it if you... READ MORE
Celgene (CELG) is a large biotech stock that is part of the Biotech iShares (IBB) and the Biotech SPDR (XBI). Overall, I would suggest that the long-term trend is up because the stock hit a 52-week high in mid-March and the 50-day EMA is above the rising 200-day EMA. The... READ MORE
This Relative Rotation Graph for Asset Classes shows Commodities (DJP) far away in the bottom-left corner of the chart, completely detached from the others. At, by far, the lowest readings on the JdK RS-Ratio axis, DJP moved higher on the JdK RS-Momentum axis for a few weeks but recently turned... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, June 13, 2017 Technology (XLK, +0.72%) rebounded after two days of brutal selling. It occurred after a hammer printed off a 50 day SMA test on Monday. That was a relief for many market participants as the XLK has been the undisputed sector leader for... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD FALLS BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE... Expectations are for another Fed rate hike this afternoon. Bond yields, however, are falling sharply. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) falling 9 basis points to the lowest level since last November. The yield has also slipped below its 200-day average... READ MORE
Yesterday saw the addition of a PMO SELL signal in the short term (daily chart) for the Nasdaq 100. Interestingly, if you look at the other three, their PMOs have turned up today. Despite a slowing market, Gold has struggled since its unsuccessful test of overhead resistance and now Bonds... READ MORE
* Widespread dissemination of tech sell-off * Bears, not so fast * Not all tech sub groups experienced Friday’s selling spree * Commodities are down, but are they out? Widespread dissemination of tech sell-off In the last few days, we have seen a tremendous amount of financial media space alerting us to Friday&... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, June 12, 2017 U.S. indices fell in unison on Monday and the tech-laden NASDAQ led the action, but after Friday's bloodbath, it certainly could have been worse. Based on overall action Friday and Monday, it appears to be a healthy rotation from the... READ MORE
.... QQQ Suffers Biggest Loss since early November .... EW Industrials Sector Nears New High .... Cummins and JetBlue Lead Industrials .... New Highs for EW Materials ETF and Cemex .... CA Forms Out-of-Place Ascending Triangle .... Cypress Semi Falls Back into Correction .... Double Top and Death Cross for F5, but .... Zimmer Biomet Fills Gap with... READ MORE
As the market closed, I received a Technical Alert that the NDX had triggered a PMO SELL signal. Additionally, I received notice that a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY signal just occurred today on the Financial SPDR (XLF). I've updated the NDX Scoreboard. It is the first... READ MORE
Nucor (NUE) is flat year-to-date and lagging the S&P 500, but the bigger trend is up and short-term momentum is turning up. The bigger trend is up because Nucor surged to a 52-week high in early December and the 10-week EMA remains above the 40-week EMA, even after... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, June 9, 2017 They say a picture can say a thousand words so before I further discuss the carnage from Friday, take a look at this performance chart of NASDAQ 100 components: Several of the best performing stocks (based on SCTR scores) were absolutely hammered on... READ MORE
The first thing you must realize is that you won’t know it is peaking until the decline is well underway. Market tops are extremely difficult to identify. That might seem hard to believe if you watch the financial media as those 'experts' are calling the top multiple... READ MORE
If you're someone that finds great investments among the high SCTR (StockCharts Technical Rank) stocks, you probably enjoy better than average returns most of the time. However, Friday was not one of those times. The NASDAQ 100, clearly the best performing index among our major indices in 2017,... READ MORE
Last week I wrote: ". . . the spike in S&P 500 New Highs makes me think that the market may be on the verge of another consolidation or correction that could last several weeks." I still think that outlook is viable, based upon this week's price... READ MORE
Tesla has just achieved a market capitalization that is larger than either Ford or General Motors. Currently Tesla manufactures just two different models (with a third on the way). How is it possible that Tesla has a valuation that exceeds these two Detroit behemoths? As a Wyckoffian I will tell... READ MORE
As the week closes, we did see one new signal change on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards that I wanted to point out. The S&P 100 (OEX) triggered a new PMO BUY signal on the weekly chart. I wouldn't get overly excited given the PMO has flattened and... READ MORE
* The head and shoulders that did not “work” * Inflation versus deflation sectors * Which are the financial sector stars? * Why financials matter The head and shoulders that did not “work” On this same date in May we published an article suggesting that financials could be an interesting area to monitor for... READ MORE
At a May 20th presentation to the Seattle chapter of the AAII, Paul Merriman confirmed to me his standing as a respected elder of investment management. Since selling his multi-billion dollar advisory firm in 2012, he has been running a financial education foundation. His motto “knowledge is power” is an... READ MORE
HEAVY PROFIT-TAKING IN TECHNOLOGY... An overbought technology sector is being sold heavily today. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) tumbling in heavy trading. That's mainly big technology stocks. Chart 2 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) looking just as bad. The FANG stocks are a big part... READ MORE
.... Bullish until it Ain't (seasonality) .... SPY Extend Higher .... Small-caps Challenge for Leadership .... Finance Sector Bids to End Correction .... Insurance Leads and Regionals Play Catch Up .... Materials Sector Hits New High .... XME Makes a Bid to End Correction (plus steel) .... Copper and Aluminum Bid to End Corrections .... Four Aluminum... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, June 8, 2017 Small caps were the clear and undeniable leader on Thursday as the Russell 2000 gained 1.36% while the NASDAQ was the second best performing index at +0.39%. I posted yesterday in this blog that the Russell 2000 needed to clear 1420... READ MORE
Over the past week, it's been about an even split among sectors in terms of winners and losers. Industrials (XLI) is one sector that's been slightly lower over the past week, but technically things still look very bright in this space. Broken price resistance generally becomes... READ MORE
.... Finding Strong and Persistent Uptrends .... Understanding Your Indicators .... A Simple Trend Following .... Measuring Trend Strength .... Focus on a Failure .... Strong Uptrend Scan Code .... Current State of the Market .... Finding Strong and Persistent Uptrends There are some incredibly strong and persistent uptrends in the market right now and I would like... READ MORE
FINANCIAL SPDR TURNS SHARPLY HIGHER... Financial stocks are having a very strong day. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) surging to the highest level in a month and, in the process, clearing its 50-day average. That puts the XLF in position to challenge its spring highs. A decisive... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, June 7, 2017 Crude oil ($WTIC) took a dive on Wednesday as inventories rose unexpectedly, causing a bit of panic among traders. Inventory supplies had fallen for eight straight weeks and traders were anticipating another drop of 3.5 million barrels. Instead, at 10:30am EST,... READ MORE
During today's MarketWatchers LIVE Show (12:00 - 1:30p MWF), the big news was the correction on Oil. Oil prices dropped more than 5 percent after the government reported an unexpected increase in crude inventories. After global producers cut inventories, the hope had been that supplies would... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO GAIN... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Dow Jones Transportation Average reversing higher today to continue its recent upturn. After finding support at its 200-day average during May, the TRAN rose above a three-month resistance line last week to signal its takeoff. It now appears... READ MORE
After struggling the first three months of the year, Vulcan Materials (VMC) is showing signs of life since late March with good upside volume and a breakout in early May. Notice that the stock broke above a resistance zone in the 122-125 area and this zone turns into support. The... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, June 6, 2017 Energy (XLE, +1.18) was easily the best performing sector on Tuesday as materials (XLB, +0.06%) was the only other sector to finish in positive territory - barely. Over the last five trading days, the XLE has printed a hollow candle (closing... READ MORE
The markets have been backing off this week but so far it hasn't shifted any short-term timing signals on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Gold rallied today and finally hurdled long-term overhead resistance along a declining tops trendline that originally formed in 2012. Price has made numerous attempts at pushing... READ MORE