Market Recap for Friday, April 21, 2017 The S&P 500 trended lower from midday Thursday through Friday's close and that extended a much longer downtrend that began after the gap higher back on March 1st. Futures are very bright green this morning, however, so we could... READ MORE
The Eurotop 100 Index surged over 2% and hit a new high to affirm its current uptrend, which began with the breakout and golden cross in early December. The index established support around 2900 over the last two months and this is the first area to watch going forward. A... READ MORE
First of all, I must apologize for my lack of creativity for these article titles. The previous two “Filtering the Noise” and “Filtering the Noise II” were about moving averages and suggesting a better way to use a relationship between two moving averages, similar to the ubiquitous MACD. In this... READ MORE
Last week I wrote, "The first necessary signal that the correction is over would be for the daily PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) to turn up." That happened on Thursday, but there was no follow through on Friday due to, I believe, it being options expiration day, which tends... READ MORE
----- Video Link ----- Art's Charts ChartList (updated 22-Apr) ----- This video is a companion to the written commentary, which was posted on Friday. Small-caps and mid-caps led a market rebound this past week and we even saw a breadth improvement. This is an encouraging spark, but the... READ MORE
.... Weekly Market Review & Outlook .... Economically Sensitive Groups Take the Lead .... Small-caps Get a Breadth Thrust .... New Highs Hit 4-week High .... IJR and MDY Lead Bounce .... More Consolidation than Correction for SPY .... QQQ Continues to Lead .... Ranking the Sectors for the Four Day Surge .... Sector SPDRs Still Tilting Bullish .... EW... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, April 20, 2017 We've yet to see the breakouts in our major indices that we're looking for, but yesterday's rally was quite bullish with leadership coming from the small cap Russell 2000 ($RUT, +1.24%), financials (XLF, +1.69%) and... READ MORE
Today the Nasdaq 100 triggered a new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signal. This replaces a Neutral signal from exactly one week ago. In the thumbnail of the chart below the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, you can that the Neutral signal was the victim of whipsaw. I've been bearish on... READ MORE
Our major indices have been consolidating for many weeks and that's enabled many individual stocks to consolidate in bullish continuation patterns. Dycom Industries (DY) is one such stock as it formed a long-term cup from early-August to late-February before printing a handle throughout March. The right side of... READ MORE
EUROZONE STOCKS ARE ATTRACTING GLOBAL FUNDS ... Part of the reason that U.S. stocks haven't been doing so well during 2017 is that global funds are moving into other parts of the world. Especially to Europe. More specifically, the eurozone. The reason is simple. U.S. stocks are... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, April 19, 2017 The U.S. equity market enjoyed strong early gains on Wednesday only to see them mostly evaporate throughout the balance of the session. The Dow Jones lagged badly all day as one of its components - IBM (-4.92%) - disappointed Wall Street... READ MORE
* Bond yields sending a deflationary message * Intermarket signals from equities are close to deflationary signals * So are similar measures for bonds * More on confidence relationships Wednesday’s close saw a lot of key ratios and some markets resting on key trendlines and moving averages. Since these benchmarks represent potential support,... READ MORE
.... High-Beta/Low-Vol Ratio Reflects Risk Environment .... Risk Ratios Stabilize within Downtrends .... Stock:Bond Ratio Turns Down .... High Yield Bond SPDR Could be Vulnerable .... Internet, Software and Cloud-Computing Hold Up .... Gold Miners ETF Underperforms Gold .... High-Beta/Low-Vol Ratio Reflects Risk Environment There are a number of ways to measure the risk... READ MORE
During today's MarketWatchers LIVE show (12:00p - 1:30p EST MWF), Tom will review and annotate ten charts in ten minutes at ten minutes to one. We call it the "Ten in Ten to One". One of the first charts he reviewed was Ionis Pharmaceuticals... READ MORE
CLIMB IN GASOLINE SUPPLIES HURTS CRUDE... A surprising jump in gasoline supplies caused heavy selling in the price of crude oil and gasoline. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund (USO) falling nearly 4% today to the lowest level in two weeks. The USO also fell back below its... READ MORE
It has been a rough year for small-caps because the Russell 2000 iShares is up just 1.34% year-to-date and severely trailing the S&P 500 SPDR, which is up around 5.5%. Chartists looking for clues of a small-cap revival may want to watch E-Trade Financial (ETFC) and... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, April 18, 2017 The Dow Jones U.S. Industrial Suppliers Index ($DJUSDS) tumbled more than 6% on Tuesday as the group absorbed its second earnings shock in the past week. W.W. Grainger (GWW) came up short of its earnings expectations, then lowered guidance and traders... READ MORE
The Relative Rotation Graph above holds the stocks that, together, make up the Utilities sector index (XLU). The keen observer may notice that there is one stock, NRG, positioned in the "gutter" of the chart. This is done on purpose as NRG is so far out to the... READ MORE
A look at the DecisionPoint Scoreboards reminds us that the short term is weak. Don't be fooled by the IT PMO BUY signals on the boards right now, I happen to know we have negative crossovers showing up on the weekly charts for three of these indexes. It&... READ MORE
Wyckoffians are always on the search for Causes being built. A trend will end and a Cause will start. A Cause will end and a trend will start. The Wyckoff Method is centered around the interpretation of these conditions and the appropriate tactics. The Composite Operator (C.O.) is our... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, April 17, 2017 If you're in the bullish camp, you have to be breathing a sigh of relief following yesterday's action. It was only one day, but after the bulls' grip on the market really seemed to be slipping at the... READ MORE
.... SPY Remains with Bearish Bollinger Band Signal .... QQQ Counters with Bullish Band Signal .... GOOGL Springs to Life - Plus FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT .... A Year of Frustration for IJR .... Airlines Remain Strong Overall .... Stocks: CTRL, FEYE, SQ, TDC, MDT and MRK .... The major stock indices are downright boring right now... READ MORE
Tom Bowley and I host the MarketWatchers LIVE webcast M/W/F 12:00p - 1:30p EST. During Monday's second market update, I like to review the DecisionPoint indicators to look at indicator expectations for the week. The chart that really stood out to me was the... READ MORE
The Industrials SPDR (XLI) is at an interesting juncture because the long-term trend is up and it is testing the January breakout. After hitting a 52-week high in February, the ETF fell back to the breakout zone in the 63.50 area and firmed with a long white candlestick four... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, April 13, 2017 The big news on Thursday - at least technically - was the breakdown in the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) to its lowest close since early November. Most traders have been expecting continuing economic strength based on wisdom from the Federal Reserve. However,... READ MORE
The first article of Filtering the Noise dealt with smoothing the data with moving averages. Here I want to discuss a really popular concept popularized by an indicator called Moving Average Convergence Divergence or MACD. MACD is a concept using two exponential averages developed by Gerald Appel. It was originally... READ MORE
* Recent technical deterioration * Bonds and the recent false upside breakout * Gold’s false breakout also turned out to be “false” The long-term indicators for the equity market continue to look positive, as the major averages are comfortably above their key moving averages. Pretty well all measures of long-term smoothed momentum... READ MORE
The green bars in the chart below show the iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond iShares (LQD) trading at a new five-month high after clearing its 200-day average. The red bars, however, show the iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond iShares (HYG) backing off from its early March high. The fact that... READ MORE
At the time of the last ChartWatchers article, I didn't really see a whole lot to be nervous about. However, the bullish picture certainly is getting a bit murkier based on developments since then. After a very strong ADP employment report on April 5th, most everyone was expecting... READ MORE
It's that time of the year, a time when all attention is turned to the bottom line of corporate America. It happens every quarter and it always has a major impact on the direction of the market. And the bottom line almost always trumps everything else. Of course... READ MORE
Most of us are aware of the tracking error between oil and the US Oil Fund. There is indeed a tracking error, but a few charts reveal that this tracking error is subject to fluctuations and can even remain stable for extended periods. Today I will show how to measure... READ MORE
----- Video Link ----- Art's Charts ChartList (updated 14-Apr) ----- Note that the Art's Charts ChartList has been updated with 30 annotated charts covering the industry group ETFs. Not all of these charts are covered in the written commentary. See the video timeline (above) for details.... READ MORE
One look at the DP Scoreboards and it is apparent there are problems in the short term. It appears that the intermediate term is sitting comfortably on BUY signals. That is true for the IT Trend Models (20/50-EMA crossover signals on daily chart), but momentum had already starting waining... READ MORE
Financial investment losses are the markets’ way of telling you to make adjustments and to correct your present course of action. The parallels between how American investors deal with financial pain and how individuals deal with physical pain is illuminating. According to a recent article in Consumer Reports, 80% of... READ MORE
S&P 500 earnings results for 2016 Q4 are in, and the market is still grossly overvalued. The chart below shows the S&P 500 Index (black line) in relation to where it would be if it were undervalued (green line), fair value (blue line), or overvalued (red... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD FALLS TO FIVE-MONTH LOW... Bond yields have been slipping since March as investors have had second thoughts about the so-called Trump bump in stocks and the economy. Geopolitical concerns may also be causing profit-taking in stocks and buying of safe havens like bonds and gold. That risk-off... READ MORE
.... Applying Standard Deviation and BandWidth to the VIX .... Trade XIV Instead of SPY .... Combining Technicals and Fundamentals .... Monthly MACD for Long-term Trend .... Charting the Fear & Greed Index .... Machines Dominate the Bond Market .... I will post the Weekly Market Review & Outlook on Friday with a video. Instead of the... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, April 13, 2017 It was another day of not-so-great action in the U.S. stock market on Wednesday as our major indices finished lower as this lengthy period of frustrating consolidation continues. A problem is definitely brewing, though, as the Volatility Index ($VIX) pushes higher and... READ MORE
A new Long-Term Trend Model signal triggered on Gold today. This occurs when the 50-EMA crosses above the 200-EMA. When this happens, DecisionPoint theory is that any stock, ETF, index, etc. with a 50-EMA above the 200-EMA is in a technical bull market. What does this mean? If you are... READ MORE
The Utilities SPDR (XLU) surged as the S&P 500 fell below its 50-day SMA on Wednesday. Overall, notice that the 50-day EMA crossed the 200-day EMA in mid December and the ETF hit a 52-week high in late March. XLU is the strongest of the nine sectors since... READ MORE