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INTEREST RATES CLIMB ALONG WITH THE DOLLAR -- INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATES WEAKEN -- DROP IN JUNK BONDS MAY BE SHORT-TERM WARNING FOR STOCKS -- SMALL CAPS THREATEN 50-DAY LINE -- ENERGY SPDR PLUNGES ON FALLING CRUDE OIL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO CLIMB... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) climbing to 2.55% which is the highest level this year. The 2-Year Treasury yield (most sensitive to a Fed rate hike) has climbed to 1.35% which is the highest level in seven years. Odds for...
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Is The Global Bull Market In Interest Rates Resuming?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* The global picture
* Short-term rates
* Longer-term rates
* International rates
The Global Picture
When I talk about interest rates I am referring to a general advance that takes place at both ends of the yield spectrum. I make this reference because in many situations certain maturities and credit qualities do not...
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Microsoft Stalls within Uptrend as Stochastic Oscillator Starts to Turn
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It always piques my interest when a stock bucks the broader market. Note that SPY and QQQ closed lower the last two days and Microsoft (MSFT) closed higher. Even though it is only for two days, this little morsel of relative strength could foreshadow a bullish resolution to the current...
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Treasury Yield Shows Building Expectations For Next Rate Hike
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Tuesday, March 7, 2017
Next Tuesday, another FOMC meeting begins with their policy decision announced next Wednesday. Expectations are that we'll see another quarter point rate hike. It's not a slam dunk and there are some who believe we should wait to see...
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New NDX PMO SELL Signal Likely the First of Many
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
Many of you may have noticed yesterday's DecisionPoint Alert blog headline, "New PMO SELL Signal for the NDX". I had thought we'd make it to DP Scoreboards with all BUY signals, but the NDX refused to give up the Long-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)...
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Webinar Reminder 4:30pm EST Today
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I just wanted to send out a quick reminder about a webinar that I'll be conducting with EarningsBeats.com President and CEO John Hopkins. It starts in roughly an hour with the webinar doors opening as the stock market closes. I will be discussing trading strategies during earnings...
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HOMEBUILDING LEADERS ARE DR HORTON, LENNAR, AND PULTEGROUP -- HEALTH CARE INSURERS LED HIGHER BY HUMANA, CIGNA, AND UNITEDHEALTH GROUP -- BIOTECH AND DRUG ETFS MEET RESISTANCE -- HEALTHCARE SPDR TESTS OLD HIGHS -- BAXTER INTL RECOVERS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DR HORTON, LENNAR, AND PULTE LOOK STRONG... Recent messages have shown bullish breakouts in a couple of ETFs tied to housing. The stronger of the two is the U.S. Home Construction iShares (ITB) which is the purest play on homebuilders. That's because its five biggest stocks are...
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Double divergence building up in SPY:IEF ratio and commodities need another rotation through lagging.
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Summary
* Opposite rotations for Equities and Bonds on both weekly and daily RRGs
* Rapid weakening of commodities over past six weeks
* Current positioning of SPY suggests some short-term weakness before resuming trend
* IEF in consolidation pattern after breaking long-term uptrend
* Double divergence in SPY:IEF ratio points to potential corrective...
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Evaluating The Technical Health Of Energy And Healthcare
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Monday, March 6, 2017
U.S. equities experienced a little profit taking on Monday, nothing technically damaging, but all our major indices did finish lower. The only sector to escape damage was energy (XLE, +0.22%), while all the others declined. On a relative basis, the XLE...
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Small-Cap Breadth Deteriorates - Bonds Could Hold the Key for Stocks
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
.... Small-cap Breadth Deteriorates
.... TLT Tests Support and 2-yr Yields Hits 52-week High
.... Mind the Gaps in these 4 Bank Stocks
.... Where to Check Earnings and News
.... 12 Stocks with Bullish Charts
.... PCN, CX, NUE, EOG, LNG, GE, ATI, JNPR, AKAM, T, EXPE, CAKE
Small-cap Breadth Deteriorates
Stocks declined for the,...
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Intel Struggles as Bearish Patterns Take Shape
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Intel is not keeping pace with the broader market and chartists should watch the bearish wedge for signs of further weakness. There are two patterns at work on the price chart. First, INTC formed a rising wedge after a sharp decline and this looks like a short-term bearish continuation pattern....
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Sticking With Global Theme, China Stocks Look Bullish
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Friday, March 3, 2017
We saw bifurcated action on Friday with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all posting minor gains while the Russell 2000 fell slightly. Sector action behaved similarly as about half the sectors climbed fractionally while the rest finished in negative...
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GOLD: Slight Breakdown
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
On Friday gold broke below the rising trend line that forms the bottom of a rising wedge pattern. A breakdown was expected because that is the normal and highly reliable resolution of most rising wedge patterns. The minimum downside target is 1180, but downside estimates for rising wedge patterns are...
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Two-Year Treasury Yield Reaches Seven-Year High, Dollar Turns Up
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Chart 1 shows the 2-Year Treasury yield climbing above 1.30% on Thursday, for the first time in seven years. That shorter term yield is more sensitive to the potential for a rate hike than longer-range maturities. That suggests that fixed income traders are taking expectations for a March rate...
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Get to the Point and Figure
by Bruce Fraser,
Industry-leading "Wyckoffian"
Sector activity can illuminate important thematic trends unfolding within the market. Point and Figure studies identify large Accumulation and Distribution Structures related to these themes poised to be campaigned over many months and years. The Sector can be campaigned using Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Also, by drilling down into the...
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Treasury Yields Rising As Home Construction Breaks To 10 Year High
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
The FOMC will be meeting to discuss a potential rate hike in less than two weeks. A hike would continue the hawkish tone that began when the FOMC increased interest rates in December 2015 for the first time in nine years. It was about six months later that the 10...
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Special Home Construction Review - Stocks To Consider
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I'm providing this special Saturday edition of Trading Places as a result of a very significant breakout in the home construction index ($DJUSHB). One way to participate in this breakout is to buy an ETF that tracks home construction stocks. One example is the ITB. The latest disclosure...
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Actual Price Action versus Relative Price Action
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The price relative tells us how a stock is performing relative to a market benchmark, such as the S&P 500. Even though this relative performance indicator is good for measuring relative momentum, it does not always tell the entire story. A stock can show weakness in relative momentum,...
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Weekly Market Review & Outlook 4-Mar-17 (w/ video) - Breadth is Strong Enough
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
----- Video Link ----- Art's Charts ChartList (updated 4-Mar) -----
Weekly Market Review & Outlook 4-Mar-17
Financials, healthcare and energy stocks led the stock market higher this week with the S&P 500 SPDR, Nasdaq 100 ETF and S&P MidCap SPDR hitting new highs. The...
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Chart Spotlight: Exxon-Mobil (XOM) Reveals Possibilities
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
During the DecisionPoint Report webinars I've added a "chart spotlight". For those of you who were members of the original DecisionPoint website, you probably remember Carl's "Chart Spotlight" on Fridays. Viewers and readers offer up some symbol suggestions via Twitter (@_DecisionPoint) and...
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Patience in an Overbought Market
by John Hopkins,
President and Co-founder, EarningsBeats.com
The rise in the major indexes since the election has been stunning. The S&P alone is up over 15% in just over 3 months. That would be a terrific year by any measure. The Dow was up 18% since the election at its all time high on Wednesday,...
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Heavy Construction Ready To Do Some Heavy Lifting
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Thursday, March 2, 2017
Thursday was a day of profit taking as all of our major indices retreated with the small cap Russell 2000 taking the biggest hit, falling 1.27%. Every sector finished lower with the exception of the defensive utilities sector (XLU), which actually gained...
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SystemTrader - Testing a 58-ETF Portfolio using Trend-Timing and Momentum-Rotation
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
.... Introduction
.... Review of the Testing Period
.... Universe, Timeframe and Data
.... Stock Market and Portfolio Benchmark
.... Trend-Timing System using the PPO
.... Different Faces of Momentum
.... Market Filter, Trend Filter and Momentum
.... Scanning Code Sample
.... Testing Four Momentum Indicators
.... Equity Line and Drawdown Chart
.... Conclusions
Introduction
Last week I presented a trend-timing...
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Energy SPDR Showing No Improvement - XLE Reaching a Decision Point
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
Every Wednesday and Friday, I review the DecisionPoint Market/Sector Summary with my webinar viewers. It is actually only one table that is taken from the full Market/Sector Summary found in the "DP Reports" blog. This table shows us the DecisionPoint Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) "posture&...
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This Part Of Europe Just Made A Major Long-Term Breakout
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
The London Financial Times Index ($FTSE) had sideways consolidated for 17 years after topping back in 2000. That consolidation period has ended in a big way in 2017 and this index appears poised for a very significant rise. Despite how you might feel about Brexit, the market has casted its...
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The Secret of Making an Investment Methodology Produce Consistent Profits
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
“I have heard many men talk intelligently, even brilliantly, about something – only to see them proven powerless when it comes to acting on what they believe. Investors must act in time.” -- Bernard Baruch
There is a fine line between embracing your methodology, trading it, trusting it, understanding all its...
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TWO-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS SEVEN -YEAR HIGH ON INCREASED ODDS FOR MARCH RATE HIKE -- THAT'S BOOSTING THE DOLLAR WHICH MAY BE ENDING ITS 2017 CORRECTION -- GOLD ETF STALLS AT 200-DAY LINE -- GOLD MINERS ARE EVEN WEAKER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TWO-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REACHES SEVEN-YEAR HIGH... Chart 1 shows the 2-Year Treasury yield climbing above 1.30% today for the first time in seven years. That shorter term yield is more sensitive to the potential for a rate hike than longer-range maturities. That suggests that fixed income traders are taking...
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Article Summaries - 11-2016 to 2-2017
by Greg Morris,
Veteran Technical Analyst, Investor, and Author
Periodically I write an article that reviews the past few months of articles. Why on Earth would I do this? Primarily for two reasons. One is that many new readers are involved and often they do not go back and look at the past articles. Two is that my articles...
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Dow Jones Soars 300 Points, Breaks 21000; FTSE Very Bullish
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Wednesday, March 1, 2017
U.S. equities surged on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 gaining 1.46% and 1.37%, respectively. The small cap Russell 2000 rebounded big time after its Tuesday drubbing, spiking 27 points, or 1.94%, to 1413 -...
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STOCKS HIT NEW RECORDS AS BOND YIELDS AND THE DOLLAR CLIMB -- FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, AND MATERIALS LEAD RALLY -- SO DO SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS -- GOLD AND OTHER SAFE HAVENS WEAKEN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS SURGE TO NEW RECORDS ... Last night's presidential speech appears to have re-energized the reflation trade that favors stocks over bonds, and economically-sensitive stocks in particular. The first three charts show ETFs of the three major U.S. stock indexes gapping into new highs. Their RSI lines remain...
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EuroTop 100 Index Ends Consolidations and Resumes Uptrend $EUR
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The EuroTop 100 ($EUR) has further room to run after breaking out of a bullish continuation pattern. The price chart shows the index basing from March until November and then breaking above a major resistance zone in early December. After a 13.1% advance in nine weeks, the index paused...
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Overbought Aggressive Sectors Lead Decline In U.S. Equities
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Tuesday, February 28, 2017
It was a day of profit taking on Tuesday. All of our major indices declined, although the selling was certainly contained. The S&P 500, for instance, dropped just 0.26% and remains near its all-time high. Weakness in consumer discretionary (XLY,...
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SPX and OEX - Two New Long-Term PMO BUY Signals - Monthly Chart Review of DP Scoreboards
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
The DecisionPoint Scoreboards in the DP Chart Galleries are now almost completely bullish. Two new Long-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signals appeared for the S&P 500 and S&P 100 when the monthly charts went final today. We don't tally up our Long-Term PMO...
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$GOLD : A Bear Market Rally Or A New Bull Market?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* The all-important trading range
* The short-term trend for Gold
* What’s going on with those Gold shares?
* Hail Silver?
$GOLD has been rallying of late and the question naturally arises as to whether this advance is for real or is a normal bear market counter-cyclical advance. The answer is not...
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BIOTECH ISHARES NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- TWO SMALLER BIOTECH ETFS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT -- TEN YEAR TREASURY YIELD THREATENS 2017 LOW -- SMALL CAPS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BIOTECH ISHARES NEAR SEPTEMBER HIGH... I've been writing about the recent upturn in the healthcare sector. And that the rally was being led higher medical device and equipment stocks, as well as health insurers. Biotechs and pharmaceuticals have lagged behind. Chart 1, however, shows the Nasdaq Biotechnology iShares...
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History Suggests Energy, Financials And Industrials Are Poised To Lead U.S. Stocks
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Monday, February 27, 2017
Energy (XLE, +0.86%) led the market advance on Monday and that hasn't happened much over the past few months. But as I have shown below in the Sector/Industry Watch section, I believe there are several technical signs that we...
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Fibonacci Retracements are Not Science and 17 Stocks to Watch
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
.... Small-caps Hold Breakout, but Still Lag
.... A Classic Throwback for Nucor
.... Oil Remains Stuck in Consolidation
.... Watch the Big Three (XOM, CVX, SLB) for Clues on XLE
.... Two Oil Refiner Stocks (MPC, VLO)
.... Four Oil & Gas Equipment and Services Stocks (NE, NOV, RDC, RIG)
.... Fibonacci Retracements are Not Science...
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TJX Companies Looks Poised to Extend Uptrend $TJX
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
TJX Companies (TJX), which operates TJ Maxx and Marshalls, recently broke out of a corrective pattern and this argues for a continuation of the bigger uptrend. It has been a rough year for most retail stocks with the Retail SPDR (XRT) down around 1% year-to-date. In contrast, TJX is up...
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Utilities Taking Advantage Of Tumbling Treasury Yields
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Friday, February 24, 2017
The 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) tumbled 7 basis points on Friday and that continued the recent string of solid days for utilities (XLU, +1.52%). Healthcare (XLV, +0.48%) is also benefiting from the rotation to defensive areas of the market as...
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Bye bye NVDA, WDC, MU and Hello, ADBE, AAPL, SWKS
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Summary
* XLK only sector inside leading quadrant for S&P 500 universe
* QCOM nosediving inside Lagging quadrant
* NVDA rapidly losing its top position within the sector
* WDC tracking MU lower into the weakening quadrant
* GLW providing excellent example of stable uptrend (price and relative)
* ADBE pushing into leading from...
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