Market Recap for Monday, June 27, 2016 The U.S. bond market closed sharply higher on Monday, sending treasury yields tumbling to lows not seen since the post-QE (quantitative easing) days of 2012. Everyone is seeking safety and it was evident throughout trading on Monday. Money rotated into safety and... READ MORE
Oversold versus Panic OVERSOLD // IWM Holds the May Low // Housing and Retail Test Benchmark Lows // XSD Becomes Most Oversold // Revisiting the Sovereign Debt Crisis // Brexit View from Belgium //// ..... Oversold versus Panic Oversold Stocks plunged the last two days and most are short-term oversold. Not just oversold, but panic oversold. Note... READ MORE
U.S. STOCK INDEXES BREAK CHART SUPPORT... The global selling of stocks that started on Friday continued into today. Big losses in Europe signaled another bad day. The British Pound fell to another 30-year low (Chart 1). Chart 2 shows London's FTSE 100 losing more than 2% and... READ MORE
* Low momentum close to price highs is often followed by above-average declines * Failed patterns are often followed by above average price moves * Those credit spreads are widening again Last week I wrote that there were some positive short-term signs that suggested the reaction to Brexit might be overdone. Monday’s... READ MORE
Stocks were hit hard on Friday and again early Monday, but Kroger (KR) bucked the selling pressure with a bullish engulfing on Friday and further gains early Monday. Even though the overall trend for KR remains down, a double bottom could be forming as the stock gets its second bounce... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, June 24, 2016 The market has spoken and we need to listen. Volume on the S&P 500 totaled 4.5 billion shares and the index dropped a hefty 3.59% on Friday. The Brexit vote clearly caught global markets by surprise with most market... READ MORE
Flag Breakout Fails for S&P 500 // AD Percent Remains on a Bull Signal // New Lows have yet to Expand // %Above 200-day Near Bearish Signal for Nasdaq 100 // Consumer Discretionary Remains the Weakest Sector // Finance Sector Weakens Considerably //// ..... Friday's sharp decline is just a blip on the... READ MORE
Using the Dow Jones Industrials ($INDU) as a proxy for the U.S. stock market, let’s look at the market’s response to the Brexit vote. Is there a Wyckoffian theme unfolding that possibly provides some early advice on how to proceed from here? Wyckoffians think in terms of... READ MORE
The Brexit vote was a solid win for "Leave," even though the margin wasn't huge. The resulting market correction was not really so bad for U.S. markets; although, for global markets it was another story. Below we can see the sucker rally early in the... READ MORE
When you look at the Relative Rotation Graph (below) holding the members of the Dow Jones Industrials index without knowing what date the snapshot was taken you would not be able to tell that a major historical event had just happened.... Obviously, I am talking about the surprising outcome of... READ MORE
After the stock market closed on May 23rd, Nordson Corp (NDSN) reported quarterly earnings results that absolutely blew away Wall Street's consensus estimates. The next morning, as you might expect, NDSN shareholders were rewarded with a huge gap higher and continuing interest throughout the trading day. Volume was... READ MORE
.... Testing the PPO Strategy .... Beware of Survivorship Bias .... Setting the Ground Rules .... Putting Three PPOs to the Test .... Reducing Drawdowns with Trend Filters .... Boosting Returns with a Pullback Rule .... Backtesting the Trend Filters and the Dip .... Testing the Original PPO Strategy .... Final Thoughts ..... Testing the PPO Strategy Today I will... READ MORE
WORLD MARKETS ARE SHOCKED AT BRITISH VOTE... Even though polls showed the British vote to be very close, a lot of money bet that the Brits would vote to stay in the European Union. That was true with London bookies and global investors. Strong currency and stock action on Wednesday... READ MORE
* Selling climax at the opening * UK versus European Monetary Union * What are global equities saying? * What’s up with the pound? Selling climax at the opening There is an old saying on Wall Street that the market does not discount the same thing twice. Back in early June, we saw... READ MORE
I think of this weekly blog as a sort of view from the kitchen. Mine is not some candy-coated representation of a non-existent financial Valhalla being peddled by someone who is trying to sell his black box with the holy grail formula. This is a weekly experience where I invite... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, June 23, 2016 The Britons have voted and it's to exit the European Union. It's almost pointless to discuss what happened yesterday because any gains from Thursday will likely be long gone at the open this morning, unless you're holding... READ MORE
Keep Calm and Carry On // S&P 500 Set for Key Support Test // FTSE Gets Turned Inside Out with Volatility // Smoothing out the Volatility // French and German Markets Bear the Brunt //// ..... Keep Calm and Carry On The markets are reacting violently to the Brexit vote and one could even... READ MORE
Today's rally was impressive after three days of consolidation, but indicators suggest it won't last. Below I've annotated ultra-short-term and short-term indicator charts for the S&P 500. See if you agree with my conclusion. Reading ultra-short-term indicator charts can be tricky. First,... READ MORE
Broadcom (AVGO) posted quarterly EPS in early June that topped Wall Street forecasts and the stock gapped higher from 155 to above 165. Now, just a few weeks later, AVGO has returned to the scene of the crime, testing gap support and its rising 20 day EMA. Volume has been... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, June 22, 2016 Volatile action continued as the UK referendum day approached. Today, Britons are voting to determine whether Britain remains in or leaves the European Union. There has been lots of back and forth action this week, although trading has been contained within a fairly... READ MORE
Keep Your Eye on the Rising Channels // Small-caps and Mid-caps are Leading // Healthcare and Finance Not doing That Bad // 10-yr Yield Springs a Bear Trap // Rising Yields Could Lift Banks // What does a High Volume Spinning Top Suggest? // Five Annotated Stock Charts worth Watching //// ...... Keep Your Eye on the Rising... READ MORE
The London FTSE is still down year-to-date, but it is the best performing index in Europe for 2016. The PerfChart below shows year-to-date performance for nine European stock indexes. The London FTSE is in the middle (light blue) and down less than 1% this year. In comparison, the Madrid IBEX... READ MORE
STERLING SHOULD BE BOTTOMING... I'm going to take the chance of ignoring the British vote on Thursday and concentrate instead on the charts themselves. If it's true that markets have a way of discounting (or anticipating) events, that's the best we can do. The... READ MORE
Why are there entire businesses setup to make forecasts? The answer is quite simple; forecasting exists because there is a giant market for it. Investors/traders thirst for forecasts. Here is the real question; why do investors want to hear/read forecasts? “Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, June 21, 2016 Small cap stocks did not participate in Tuesday's rally as the Russell 2000 finished lower by 0.33%. But our other major indices all gained, led by the S&P 500's 0.27% rise. Energy (XLE, +1.19%... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, June 20, 2016 Over the weekend, a poll indicated that the "remain" camp was winning the Brexit war, helping to relieve a bit of market anxiety that has been building as the UK referendum on whether the British will remain or leave the European... READ MORE
Thinking about Stops and Exits // Surge and Zigzag Advance // Small-caps Continue to Lead // Brexit, the FTSE and the Pound // Industrials Sector Remains Strong // Sector Table Supports Broad Market Uptrend // Index Table Remains Firmly Bullish // Webinar Preview // Scan Code for Outperformance //// ..... Thinking about Stops and Exits Before getting into some broad... READ MORE
UK LEADS GLOBAL RALLY ... Stocks around the world started the week on a strong note which appears to be tied to shifting sentiment in Britain. Chart 1 shows the British Pound surging more than 2% for its biggest gain in years. British stocks are sharply higher as well. Chart 2... READ MORE
Chartists looking for the movers and shakers of the day need look no further than the StockCharts home page. Tables for most actives and SCTRs can be found midway down on the left-hand side. These tables can be viewed by Top 10, Bottom 10, Top Up and Top Down (click... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, June 17, 2016 It was more of the same on Friday. Our major indices fell despite a rally that took place late in the morning session. Early losses were cut, but overall the bulls weren't able to totally recover from the morning weakness. The... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Lots of changes in the wind these days both in the stock market and at StockCharts.com. Here's my 2 minute review of everything coming up over the next couple of months: Big Volume Spike on Friday Fridays are typically slow days for the market... READ MORE
The reason for the cryptic title is that I bet Erin that I could write an article without using the word "Brexit." Doh! Whatever. The big event next week (Thursday) is the British vote to leave or remain in the European Union. As to what the U.S.... READ MORE
I wrote an article on Cincinnati Bell (CBB) at the end of May. I stated back then that a move to $4.00 was likely. The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) had bottomed but had yet to deliver a BUY signal. Since then CBB has gone through a few changes. The... READ MORE
All eyes are on the British Brexit vote this coming Thursday (June 23) on whether to stay in the European Union or leave. Latest polls show the "leave" vote in the lead. A relief bounce on Friday in Britain and Europe was encouraging, but not enough to turn... READ MORE
Last week was rough on stocks as fear engulfed the market. All of the major indexes remain below key technical levels with the NASDAQ in particular very weak. And the fear was evident as the VIX rose sharply, hitting levels not seen since February of this year when the market... READ MORE
A FRIDAY REBOUND IN BRITAIN AND EUROPE... All eyes are on the British Brexit vote this coming Thursday (June 23) on whether to stay in the European Union or leave. Latest polls show the "leave" vote in the lead. A relief bounce on Friday in Britain and Europe... READ MORE
A sharp decline in Treasury yields is lifting the Utilities SPDR (XLU) and weighing on the Finance SPDR (XLF). First, let's look at the correlations to better understand the relationships. The chart shows the 10-yr Treasury yield in the top window and the Correlation Coefficients in the lower... READ MORE
Mr. Wyckoff created a methodology that requires the trader to use judgment for positioning trades. We live in an era where sophisticated computer algorithms are all the rage in trading circles. These automated systems are designed to remove trading judgment from the human process and build it into the computer’... READ MORE
* Stocks show signs of a near-term reversal * What about those bonds? * Gold showing signs of tiredness Stocks show signs of near-term reversal On Thursday, several markets started off strongly in one direction but by the end of the day, these same markets reversed course. Normally when one market or an... READ MORE
SystemTrader // Review of the Golden Cross Tests // Testing Short-term Moving Averages // A Basic 10-50 SMA Cross // Testing the Classic 13-34 EMA Cross // Does a Trend Filter Improve Results? // Final Thoughts //// ........ Last week I tested the golden cross for five major stock indexes and optimized these two moving averages to see... READ MORE