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FRIDAY JUMP KEEPS STOCKS IN UPTREND -- PRICE PATTERN LOOKS POSITIVE -- GOLD STOCKS JUMP ON WEAK DOLLAR -- PROSPECTS FOR HIGHER RATES BOOST BANKS -- FALLING OIL HELPS AIRLINES RISE -- NASDAQ 100 NEARS NEW RECORD -- APPLE MAY BE TURNING UP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SHORT-TERM PATTERN LOOKS POSITIVE... A strong rally on Friday more than erased losses from Thursday and left the market in much better shape. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ending the week back above its 200-day average after bouncing off its 50-day line on Thursday. Chartwatchers will now...
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Finance Sector Comes to Life and Leads
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The finance sector is one of the stronger sectors right now and this is positive for the overall market. As the table below shows, the Finance SPDR (XLF) has the fourth highest StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) of the nine sector SPDRs and the EW Finance ETF (RYF) has the third...
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This Is How Money Rotates Prior To Bear Market
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
The start of every bear market is different. Sometimes it's driven by technology stocks, other times it's a financial crisis. Whatever the case, one common denominator seems to be that aggressive areas of the stock market are abandoned as final tops are made or challenged. In...
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Positive Divergence Suggests CA Likely To Resume Uptrend
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
CA Inc (CA) topped in March 2015 and was in the midst of an 8 month downtrend - until last week's action. Prior to the break of this downtrend and key 20 week EMA resistance, CA had printed a fresh weekly CLOSING low that was accompanied by a...
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STOCKS HAVE A HUGE FRIDAY -- NEWMONT MINING LEADS GOLD STOCKS -- FINANCIAL LEADERS ARE CME GROUP, CHARLES SCHWAB, AND PNC FINANCIALS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCK INDEXES GAIN 2%... Stocks are having a huge day on Friday. Stock indexes are showing gains of 2%. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 gaining 40 points nearing the close. Its ability to bounce back above its 200-day line is also impressive. That gives its recent pattern...
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The Laws of Wyckoff
by Bruce Fraser,
Industry-leading "Wyckoffian"
Three Principles or Laws govern the structure of the Wyckoff Methodology. Procedurally there are a series of Tests that determine buying and selling decisions. There are nine of these Tests, or thresholds, to be passed for making a buying decision, or a selling decision. The Nine Buying Tests and the...
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This Investor's Take on the "Pyramid of Success"
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
“Success is peace of mind which is a direct result of self-satisfaction in knowing you made the effort to become the best of which you are capable.” – Dr. John Wooden
Yes, it’s that time of year again, and I thought I’d invite you into my trading room. I...
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Trend vs Noise - Small and Mid Caps Hold the Key - Biotechs Look Vulnerable
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Click here for today's video // Trend versus Noise // Small-caps and Equal-weights Struggle // Two Different Trends for the Same Index // Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap 400 Hold the Key // Sector Leaders and Laggards // Sector High-Low Percent Rankings // REITs and Biotechs Look Vulnerable // Friday Food For Thought ////
Trend...
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ECB Falls Short Of Expectations, Global Markets Plunge
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for December 3, 2015
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced additional measures to stimulate economic growth, but it clearly was not enough for traders who've grown accustomed to quantitative easing (QE) in all shapes and sizes. That, combined with a very disappointing ISM manufacturing report a...
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Double-Tops Abound - Will They Pan Out?
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
I purposely have not mentioned the possible double-top formation on the SPY in the DecisionPoint Alert and in my webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays. I felt it was too early and indicators weren't looking bearish enough to discuss not only a drop to the "neckline" but...
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Adobe Losing Momentum One Week Before Earnings
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Negative divergences on the MACD and light volume on breakouts are two important criteria in identifying a possible top. Accumulation requires volume so I'm always suspicious if advances begin to run out of it. In the case of Adobe Systems (ADBE), it has these markers in place just...
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ECB DISAPPOINTS MARKETS -- EURO JUMPS AS DOLLAR FALLS -- TREASURY YIELDS FOLLOW EUROPE HIGHER -- EUROPEAN STOCKS TUMBLE -- RISING RATES HURT UTILITIES, SUPPORT BANKS -- KROGER BREAKS OUT TO NEW HIGH -- ENERGY SECTOR WEAKENS -- S&P 500 RETESTS 200-DAY LINE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DRAGHI DISAPPOINTS... Mario Draghi promised more stimulative measures to boost eurozone inflation and economic growth. The ECB today lowered its deposit rate 10 basis points to -0.3%. It also extended its QE bond buying program for an additional six months. Either those moves were already expected, or the markets...
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A New Breadth of Fresh Air
by Greg Morris,
Veteran Technical Analyst, Investor, and Author
StockCharts.com has vastly updated not only its raw breadth database but now there are hundreds and hundreds of new market breadth indicators available to everyone. This is not really an article but an information piece about StockCharts.com’s vast amount of breadth material and where to find it;...
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Energy Tumbles, S&P 500 Faces Key Test
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Wednesday, December 2, 2015
Wednesday was a very difficult day for energy stocks (XLE) as this sector fell more than 3%, its worst day since the heavy August selling. The culprit is what you would expect - falling crude oil prices ($WTIC). The WTIC finished just above...
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SPY Holds Breakout - 2 Commodities in Uptrends - 15 Stock Charts to Watch
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
SPY Holds Short-term Breakout // IWM Shows Relative Chart Strength // 2-yr Yield versus the 10-yr Yield // Watching the Channel in IEF // Two Commodities in Uptrends // Legacy Airlines Sport Constructive Chart Patterns // Big Banks Consolidate after Surge // Short-term Bearish Patterns in XOM and CVX // Other Charts: ADI, APD, CAT, CAMP, NOK, SIGI,...
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Volume Is About To Expand, But Which Way Will It Send Prices?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Two bar reversal for the S&P says the rally is over
* Volume is oversold. That means volume is likely to expand on the downside.
* Credit spreads challenging their bear market lows
* Commodities breaking down in a very big way
* This week's two-bar reversal says the market...
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TECHNOLOGY ETFS TEST NOVEMBER HIGHS -- ALTHOUGH BIG TECHS LEAD RALLY, EQUAL WEIGHT ETF SHOWS STRENGTH -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETF AT SIX-MONTH HIGH -- INTEL AND NVIDIA ARE CHIP LEADERS -- STRONG DOLLAR MAY HELP AIRLINES BY MAKING INTL TRAVEL CHEAPER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TECHNOLOGY STOCKS CONTINUE TO LEAD THE MARKET HIGHER... It's usually a good sign when the economically-sensitive technology sector is leading the market higher. And it is. Chart 1 shows the Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) in the process of testing its November high. Its relative strength ratio (above chart)...
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CA Forms a High and Tight Flag
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
CA Inc (CA) remains in a downtrend, but a reversal could be brewing as the stock forms a high and tight flag just below key resistance. CA was trending down most of the year and then formed a selling climax with a sharp decline on high volume in August. The...
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Is The Fed Really Going To Raise Rates?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Tuesday, December 1, 2015
Equity markets enjoyed a very strong Tuesday, although it wasn't all good news. Money flowed into treasuries on a relative basis and this represents defensive action. It also occurred at a fairly critical short-term support area (20 day EMA) on the...
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Healthcare, Consumer Stocks Drive Market Lower
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for November 30, 2015
All of our major indices finished lower on Monday's session, but there was plenty of sector rotation. Despite the overall losses, four of the nine sectors managed to finish higher, led by energy (XLE), materials (XLB) and utilities (XLU). Technology (XLK) also...
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Small Caps Come Alive - Bullish Pattern for SPY - Current Market Themes
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Small and Mid Caps Come Alive // Bullish Continuation Pattern for SPY // Utilities and Energy Look Vulnerable // Housing Gets a Breakout as Retail Rebounds // Cloud and Internet Continue to Lead // Regional Banks and Insurance Power Finance Sector // Current Market Themes ////
Market Overview
While we still have some day-to-day noise and the...
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A Boring Biotech that Deserves a Second Look
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Gilead is up for the most boring biotech award because the stock has traded relatively flat since September 2014. Despite numerous crosses of the 105 area, the overall trend is still up and chartists should watch for a breakout to signal a continuation of this uptrend. On the price chart,...
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CGMBI-Composite Indicators-Chap 9
by Greg Morris,
Veteran Technical Analyst, Investor, and Author
Before we being the review of Chapter 9 for the 2nd Edition of The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators, I am proud to announce that after over a year of work with many of the fine folks at StockCharts.com, the book is now available in Kindle format from...
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Bullish Continuation Patterns Emerge; Stocks Poised To Move Higher
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Friday, November 27, 2015
Action was solid on Friday, although a bit bifurcated. The Dow Jones was the only major index to finish in negative territory as this index of behemoth blue chip companies tries to negotiate short-term resistance from 17800-18000. Check out the visual:
The Dow...
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Strong rotation for AFL within the financials universe (XLF)
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Summary
* MS weakest stock in the universe
* Don't chase PSA
* AXP continues to nose-dive
* VTR accelerating into lagging quadrant
* BK ready to break higher
* AFL offering opportunities
In my previous blog, we looked at sector rotation in the US based on the traded (State Street) ETFs. The headline...
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Understanding What Works For You
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
The first thing to investing or trading smarter is understanding your own personal strategy - what works best for you. Are you a short-term trader? Do you swing trade? Do you prefer longer-term holding periods? Without understanding that basic personal trait, deciding whether to buy or sell becomes a very...
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$SPX: Volume and Momentum Issues
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
When performing index analysis, I normally prefer to use the SPDR because that is the trading vehicle, as well as a "total return" view of the index. In this case we are looking at on-balance volume (OBV), and I wanted to be sure we were considering all the...
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SMALL STOCKS START TO SHOW LEADERSHIP -- DOLLAR NEARS 13-YEAR HIGH AS EURO WEAKENS -- COMMODITY DEFLATION HOLDS BOND YIELDS DOWN -- SO DO NEGATIVE EUROZONE YIELDS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL CAP INDEXES TURN UP -- MIDCAPS ARE RIGHT BEHIND... Smaller stocks are not only catching up to larger stocks, they're starting to do better. That normally happens near yearend in anticipation of the "January Effect" when investors favor smaller stocks. Chart 1 shows the S&...
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How A Fellow Investor Critiqued This Trader
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
My motives in writing these weekly blogs and in teaching investment classes are in part selfish ones. I write and teach to become a better trader myself. By weaving together the key attributes that I deem most useful in trading the stock market and sharing them with other investors, I...
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What To Expect From Friday After Thanksgiving
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Wednesday, November 25
Healthcare (XLV) and consumer discretionary (XLY) were the two best performing sectors on Wednesday, leading the U.S. stock market to gains in most of our major indices. The S&P 500 saw a late selloff take that index to a loss of...
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Classic Ascending Triangle Breakout On This Software Stock
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Imperva Inc (IMPV) made a steady move higher from April through July before consolidating in a very bullish ascending triangle continuation pattern over the past four months. On Tuesday, volume accelerated and triangle resistance near 74.00 was cleared as IMPV extends its prior uptrend. The measurement of this pattern...
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Time To Watch Those Commodities Like A Hawk
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* CRB Composite touches a 40-year low but is deeply oversold
* Oil is also at critical support
* Short-term commodity picture finely balanced but narrowly favors the bears
* Dollar Index is back at its March 2015 high
* Some short-term dollar indicators starting to roll over
Long-term commodity picture
Chart 1 shows that...
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THANKSIVING WEEK IS USUALLY GOOD FOR THE MARKET -- SO IS THE MONTH OF DECEMBER -- THAT'S ESPECIALLY TRUE OF SMALLER STOCKS WHICH ARE TURNING UP -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR NEARS RECORD -- ALEXION AND AMGEN LEAD HEALTHCARE SECTOR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
THANKSGIVING TREAT ... Stocks are approaching the Thanksgiving holiday in an optimistic mood. That's not unusual. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving are up days most of the time. Following that, stocks enter December which is usually the strongest...
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Home Construction iShares Goes for a Breakout
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After lagging the market in October, the Home Construction iShares (ITB) is perking up with a breakout on the price chart and upturn in the price relative. ITB peaked in August and fell into September. Even though the market rallied in October and early November, ITB did not partake and...
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Weak Start Tuesday, Bulls Roar Back
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Apparently, the U.S. stock market's shock absorbers are working just fine. After being dealt multiple blows in the early pre-market action - (1) weak European indices, (2) a list of poor quarterly results from the retail space and (3) a...
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Mid-Caps and Small-Caps Trigger PMO Crossover BUY Signals
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
Interestingly, small- and mid caps received Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossover BUY signals before the large cap indexes. In last weekend's ChartWatchers article I pointed out how all of the major indexes had little to no momentum during this rally. The PMO readings had been flat throughout the...
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Consolidation Continues As Market Looks For Direction
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Monday, November 23, 2015
The Russell 2000 was clearly the big winner on Monday as this small cap index rose .44% on a day when the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all had fractional losses. The NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) fell .25% to perhaps paint...
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Big Candlesticks Form Potential Reversal Pattern in Alcoa
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The overall trend for Alcoa is currently down, but the ETF is showing signs of life with a bullish reversal pattern taking shape. The chart shows AA making a round trip from 8 to 8 with a double top at 17 in between. Chartists can apply the inverse logic of...
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Consumer Discretionary Leads Friday Surge
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Friday, November 20, 2015
Consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) led six sectors higher on Friday. The only three that did not participate were energy (XLE), materials (XLB) and consumer staples (XLP). Crude oil ($WTIC) reversed on Friday and finished near its low of the session, just above $41...
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Negative sector rotation expected for XLE and XLB
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Summary
* XLE and XLB expected to turn back to lagging quadrant again
* XLI improving further towards leading
* XLK holding up well inside positive territory
* XLP and XLU both weakening but wider rotation for XLU
* XLF bottoming out in relative trading range?
Quick scan
The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the...
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