Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! The markets had a very good week last week and are trying to climb above lots of built-up resistance from earlier in the year. On the Dow chart, that means that the index struggles each time it nears 18,000 - something it is doing once again.... READ MORE
S&P 500 REGAINS ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- EQUAL WEIGHTED VERSION LAGS... This time last week, the S&P 500 Index had fallen back below its 200-day average and was testing chart support at its September peak at 2020 (and its 50-day moving average). It survived that test... READ MORE
After gapping up off its recent uptrend, the buying continued on Intel (INTC) intraday on Friday as it surged to a high of 35.29. By day's end, however, INTC closed at 34.66 - EXACTLY where it closed on its recent high on October 23rd. Volume was... READ MORE
After a short correction last week, Nike (NKE) reversed course this week and charged upward, nearly reaching new, all-time highs. With such positive price action, what could be wrong? For one thing, on the monthly chart we can see that NKE is in a parabolic up move, and price is... READ MORE
On the surface, the rout that took place in August has been completely reversed and, three months later, it's like nothing ever happened, right? Wrong. What has happened is that the S&P 500 rose from August 19th's close of 2079.61 to Thursday, November... READ MORE
The most recent bounce/rally was impressive, pushing prices toward overhead resistance at the November high or even to all-time highs. The problem is that during that rally, the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) didn't react. It did turn negative momentum to "positive" but barely. Take a... READ MORE
At EarningsBeats.com we focus squarely on stocks that beat earnings expectations and also have strong charts. We do this as we have found that companies who report strong numbers get a lot of attention which makes sense given the single most important attribute investors look for in a company... READ MORE
MORE STOCKS CLEAR THEIR 200-DAY AVERAGES ... My Wednesday message showed that the percent of NYSE stocks above their 200-day average had declined during November to as low as 27% (about where it was at the same time in 2011). I suggested that the number needed to exceed its earlier peak... READ MORE
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) acted just like a roller coaster the last two weeks. It took traders for a wild ride and then dropped them off right where they started - a little frazzled no doubt. SPY opened near 209 on Monday, November 9th, and then plunged... READ MORE
It might be human nature, but it’s not a good thing. In my Tensile Trading seminars, investors study six essential stages of stock market mastery before they ever arrive at Stage #7 – Buying. This foundation building is imperative if investors expect to achieve consistent profitability, but it takes some... READ MORE
We have just completed a walk around the classic market cycle. Let us take some time for review before we move on to other aspects of the Wyckoff Method. If we are all on the same page regarding the structure of prices during each stage of Accumulation, Markup, Distribution and... READ MORE
Lines in the Sand for Three Key ETFs // SPY and IJR are Bullish // MDY is Lagging // Using Weekly Breadth Indicators // High-Low Percent Stalls for NYSE and Nasdaq // Will a Broad Surge follow the Broad Decline? // Scan Code for Rate-of-Change and Ranking // AD Percent Indicators Surge // Friday Food for Thought //// Lines... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, November 19, 2015 The U.S. stock market was bifurcated on Thursday with the NASDAQ 100 able to eke out small gains while the others were fractionally lower. Utilities were easily the sector performance leader, but it's been a rough few weeks for the... READ MORE
After the recent bounce off of the September high for the SPY, its short-term indicators finally began to move out of oversold territory. They are only neutral now. I'm looking for these indicators to move into overbought territory. Somewhat overbought territory is fine as this rally appears to... READ MORE
The Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction index ($DJUSHB) hit its highest level in two months this morning and a close above 600 would likely signal more strength to come. DR Horton (DHI) and NVR, Inc (NVR) represent two of the strongest stocks in the group technically and are both... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, November 18, 2015 There was strength everywhere on Wednesday. All nine sectors were higher and utilities represented the only sector that was not higher by at least 1%. Healthcare (XLV) rallied 1.95% while materials (XLB) and financials (XLY) both rose by an identical 1.78%... READ MORE
QQQ Continues to Lead // SPY Gets a Breakout // IWM Follows Through on Engulfing Pattern // Long-term Trend Change in Nektar // Uptrends Edge out Downtrends in S&P 1500 // New Lows Edge out New Highs // Market Themes // 5 PPO Setups //// QQQ Continues to Lead QQQ firmed at support on Monday with... READ MORE
There is no doubt that investors are attracted by positive performance. Unfortunately, most investors stop there and never accomplish the due diligence to confirm that the returns are meaningful. In most cases they usually place entirely too much emphasis on performance without putting it into the context of the market... READ MORE
BIOTECH ISHARES TRIES TO REGAIN UPTREND... Chart 1 shows Biotech iShares (IBB) testing a falling trendline drawn over its July/September peaks. It has already regained its 50-day average, but remains below its 200-day line. Its relative strength ratio (top of chart) is also starting to recover from its September... READ MORE
The PerfChart below tells the story for the Dollar, Treasury bonds and commodities since late September. Note that stocks, the Dollar Index ($USD) and the 10-YR Treasury Yield ($TNX) are down, while the 10-yr Note ($UST), Spot Gold ($GOLD), Spot Crude ($WTIC) and Spot Copper ($COPPER) are down. It is... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, November 17, 2015 The U.S. dollar index ($USD) neared 100 for the first time since the second week of April and that sent shock waves throughout commodities once again. Gold, in particular, was hit very hard as GLD broke to fresh lows beneath four month... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, November 16, 2015 All nine sectors moved higher on Monday and the wide participation was evident in the 1%+ gains across the board. Leadership in energy (XLE) was clear with that sector's 3.33% advance off key support near 66.00. This level was... READ MORE
Mister Market is Mixed Up // QQQ Holds the Gap // Short-term PPO Holds for SPY // IWM Holds Support with Engulfing Pattern // %Above Indicators Trigger Bullish Signal // High-Low Indicators Turn Bearish // EW Finance, Technology and Staples are the Leaders // 4 PPO Strategy Charts ///// Mister Market is Mixed Up The overall market is... READ MORE
* Two bar reversal says the market is going higher near-term * Credit spreads at key juncture point * Oil showing tentative sign of a short-term reversal but confirmation is required They say that a market that does not decline on bad news is usually ready to reverse to the upside. Over the... READ MORE
Introduction // Moving Averages and Trend // Creating a Smooth Operator // Slope of an EMA // Commodity Channel Index // Putting it All Together // Conclusions // Scan Code //// Introduction Trend is a very important aspect of technical analysis and investing. It is often pretty easy to identify the current trend, but it is much harder... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) was hit quite hard last week, but the ETF is making an attempt to firm on Monday and chartists should watch three things. First, the ETF gapped up and surged above 115. This gap was part of a 16% advance off the September low and... READ MORE
Summary * Big rotation among members of the Dow Jones Industrials Index * DD came to life surprisingly strong * CVX and UTX still expected to rotate back down again to lagging quadrant * WMT, CAT and IBM all moving further into the lagging quadrant confirming their relative weakness * UNH and AXP entering the... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, November 13, 2015 Retailers were slammed on Friday after October retail sales came up short of expectations. Retail sales for the month gained 0.1% while expectations were for a much stronger 0.3% rise. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.2%, one half of the... READ MORE
At DecisionPoint we track the status of short-term and long-term mechanical signals so that we can get an idea of the level of participation in each of those time frames. The chart below shows the shorter-term Percentage of PMO Crossover BUY Signals as well as the longer-term Percent Buy Index... READ MORE
Retailers were rocked on Friday with the five worst performing industry groups all in the retail space. The S&P Retail index (XRT) dropped nearly 4% on Friday and more than 8% last week. Many of the retail industry groups and stocks within those groups are at or challenging... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES FALL BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGES... The market suffered a setback this week when major U.S. stock indexes fell back below their 200-day averages. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite ending below that support line on Friday. Chart 2 shows the Dow Industrials spending Thursday and Friday below... READ MORE
The case study method is a preferred teaching tool in the Wyckoff classroom. Past real life market situations can be explored on an accelerated basis. Students are able to gain market experience (in the safety of the classroom) from a myriad of different and illustrative trading environments. Here is a... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR LOSES LEADERSHIP... One of the more positive signs throughout 2015 has been leadership by consumer discretionary stocks. In fact, cyclicals have been the market's strongest sector all year. That can be seen by its rising relative strength ratio on top of the chart. But not... READ MORE
When seasoned traders get together, we have a sort of “secret handshake” that the uninitiated may not notice. We ask each other if they’ve read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. The insiders reply by telling you the number of times they’ve read the book. Novices ask for the... READ MORE
SCTR Drops for EW Consumer Discretionary // EW S&P 500 Fails to Keep Pace // S&P 500 Pulls back after Big Surge // Russell 2000 Remains a Problem Child // 2011 Redux // Watching High-Low Percent Before Flinching // Stocks Outperforming Other Assets // Retailers Cast a Dark Cloud // Friday Food for Thought... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, November 12, 2015 Over the past 5-6 trading sessions, the selling was fairly contained and appeared to be nothing more than normal profit taking after a lengthy advance from the depths of the late September lows. That changed yesterday. I'm not writing off the... READ MORE
Today the DecisionPoint Scoreboards from our DecisionPoint Chart Gallery lit up with four new Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signals. I don't think any of us are too surprised (especially those who attended my webinar yesterday!) that so many PMO crossovers occurred on the major indexes. The... READ MORE
Prior to this week, energy had seen its strongest rebound since topping in June 2014. But a long-term negative divergence and slowing volume suggested the rally was long in the tooth. After hitting nearly 72.00, the XLE has retreated and the energy bulls will now be tested. During an... READ MORE
RISING DOLLAR PUSHES CRB INDEX NEAR AUGUST LOW ... My previous message explained that one of the casualties of a rising U.S. Dollar would be weaker commodity markets. With the dollar having recently risen to a new seven-month high, commodity prices are in retreat. The brown line in Chart 1... READ MORE
A Market for All Seasons // New Market Theme Added // 52-week Lows Remain High // High-Low Lines Still Rising // QQQ, SPY and IWM Charts Updated // Electronic Payments and Big Tech Rock // AAPL Fires a Warning Shot // PPO Strategy: 5 Signals and 2 Setups ///// A Market for All Seasons This stock market has... READ MORE