I noted yesterday that the NDX, SPX and OEX all had Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossover SELL signals. The DecisionPoint Scoreboard is below. Let's look at the crossovers and then we will discuss the NDX Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal and INDU Short-Term PMO BUY signal. Just... READ MORE
* Test of the August 24 intraday lows is at hand * Junk bonds complete 3-year top * Credit spread may be leading the Dollar Index higher * The yields on short-term treasury maturities may be peaking Testing the lows Normally I like to use the KST to determine when momentum has reversed direction.... READ MORE
BOND ALIGNMENT SHOWS CAUTION ... Money has been flowing into the relative safety of bonds as stocks prices have slid. That money hasn't been flowing equally into all bond categories however. Most of the money has been flowing into Treasury bonds which are the safest of all. Investment Grade... READ MORE
Cash Outperforms Defensive Sectors Correlations rise when the major stock indices are in downtrends. In addition, the deeper and sharper the decline, the higher the positive correlation among stocks. This means there are few places to hide when the stock market turns down. Healthcare, consumer staples and utilities are traditionally... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, September 28, 2015 It was another case of the Monday blues. Following the lead in Europe, the U.S. indices gapped lower and continued selling throughout the session with barely a pause. It was a distribution day for sure and small caps (Russell 2000) were among... READ MORE
The biotech ETFs have gone from leaders to laggards as the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) plunged double-digits over the past week. The image below shows the ETFs with the biggest decline in their SCTR over the past week. You can set the time period using the drop down at the... READ MORE
Bigger Trend and Breadth Remain Bearish Programming note: I will add a video to this commentary by 10AM ET. Also note that I will not be doing a webinar on Tuesday, but will post a commentary. There is no change in the medium-term trends and indicators for the major index... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, September 25, 2015 Friday looked like two different markets. The Dow Jones gained 113 points, the S&P 500 finished flat and the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 both fell more than 1%. Talk about bifurcation. Crazy. But in the end, the problems remained across the... READ MORE
Healthcare stocks led much of the market's rally off the 2009 lows - especially since early 2011. That was then. This is now. Technical conditions have deteriorated immensely since the Spring of this year when warning signs emerged (see "Healthcare Stocks Are Vulnerable To Weakness Ahead"... READ MORE
The Rydex Asset Ratio is a solid sentiment indicator because it is based upon an analysis of where people are actually putting their money, not just how they are feeling about the market. It is calculated by dividing *Rydex Bear Fund plus Money Market Assets by *Rydex Bull Fund Assets.... READ MORE
BIOTECHS CONTINUE TO TUMBLE... Biotechs have gone from market helpers to market hurters. The daily bars in Chart 1 show Biotech iShares (IBB) falling to the lowest level since August, and the lowest closing price in more than six months (in very heavy trading). The IBB lost 13% on the... READ MORE
Years ago when I was a novice investor, I’d exhaust myself trying to figure out why things were happening in the markets. I would struggle to comprehend it all, and when there were market forces I couldn’t understand or explain, it would simply eat away at me. I... READ MORE
The next charts show mostly stocks in uptrends with recent breakouts. For example, AMZN broke out on September 8th and this breakout is holding. The ability to hold a breakout in a weak market shows both absolute and relative strength. There are two setups for stocks that are in downtrends... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, September 24, 2015 It wasn't so much about what happened during the trading session on Thursday as it was about what happened after it. U.S. equities were sharply lower in the first half of Thursday's session as the Germany drubbing continued,... READ MORE
Using Volatility-Adjusted Channels Note that I will be making a second post today with some individual stock charts (AMZN, AAPL, FB, NFLX, PANW, TASR, TSLA, UA, XOM and more). If you would like to receive email notifications when I post, check out the "yes" button at the bottom... READ MORE
It’s no secret that I have been bearish on the equity market for some time. Nevertheless, it's always a good idea to remain flexible and look at all angles, so at Tuesday's webinar Greg asked me a great question. What would need to happen to... READ MORE
In recent weeks we have covered much ground on the concept of Distribution. We now know that Distribution is a process, and that it takes time. Our mission, as Wyckoffians, is to become a keen observer of these Phases and Events within Phases, which are markers along the evolution of... READ MORE
AUTOS AND BIOTECHS WEAKEN ... Two groups that had recently held up better than others have experienced heavy selling this week. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Automobile Index falling back below its 50-day line. Its relative strength line (top of chart) has started to weaken as well. Volkswagen has lost... READ MORE
Medium-term (MT), the major index ETFs are in downtrends after the August support breaks. In addition, the PPO (20,120,1) and PPO (10,60,1) are in negative territory to confirm these downtrends. Short-term (ST), the major index ETFs are mixed. IWM and SPY broke down this week and... READ MORE
This is the second part of the Technical Analysis Magic article published a while back – click here. I wanted to wait to see if there were any remaining readers. Apparently I did not offend everyone. Some of the introductory material is the same as last time just in case someone... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, September 23, 2015 The S&P 500 keeps trying to regain its footing as it watched its German counterpart (DAX) lose August support two days ago and then fail to recapture that support level on Wednesday when it had the opportunity. 9648 was that August... READ MORE
One cool feature at StockCharts.com is the ability to check the seasonal tendencies of stocks. For instance, I can tell you that Amazon.com (AMZN) performs its best during the month of September, which is odd because September is the worst month of the year historically for the S&... READ MORE
In addition to this successful ad campaign, Aetna sports a bullish looking chart that argues for higher prices. First note that it has been a tough month for stocks with the S&P 500 down around 1.5% month-to-date. Aetna, in contrast, is holding up rather well and up... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, September 22, 2015 Simply put, it's ALWAYS better to see afternoon buying. Despite the late day strength, all 9 sectors finished lower on Tuesday, but most areas finished well off their intraday lows, a positive sign at least for the very near-term. Healthcare (XLV)... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has been the leading index for the recent rally. It was the first to move from short-term Neutral and SELL signals to BUY signals on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. However, the rally has lost its legs and the NDX is the first show this, whipsawing from a... READ MORE
With the Fed noise behind us, for the most part at least, we can now focus on some untainted price action to define trends in the stock market. I view this week as important because there is less noise and chartists should watch for a decisive move - one way... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, September 21, 2015 Impulsive selling has been the signature of the past month. Beginning with the August free fall, when the selling has hit, it's hit in a hurry. Monday was a perfect example of why we are not out of the woods just... READ MORE
The chart of the S&P 500 index ($SPX) or its ETF equivalent (SPY) has popped up in almost every blog article on the site over the past few weeks/months and the vote has been almost unanimous : It's not looking good! From an absolute point of... READ MORE
There are lots of technology-consumer companies out there, but few are bigger than the big five: Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google and Microsoft. While I am not sure if it is a zero-sum game for these behemoths, two are emerging as the leaders over the last few weeks. The SharpChart below... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, September 18, 2015 Traders were not thrilled by the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged as they quickly turned their attention to defensive bonds. The 10 year treasury yield ($TNX), after closing above 2.30% for the first time in two months... READ MORE
Wedges are Still Rising - Despite the Noise The stock market has certainly seen its fair share of noise in September. This noise includes the usual chatter from the talking heads and the Fed, as well as some volatile price action. Over the last 13 trading days, SPY gapped down... READ MORE
We track the percentage of stocks above their 20EMA, 50EMA, and 200EMA because this helps us determine market condition in the short, medium, and long time frames. While this indicator is available for numerous market and sector indexes, we usually concentrate on the stocks S&P 500 Index for... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! The Fed's announcement on Thursday was the big news of the week both fundamentally and technically. Prior to the announcement, stocks had moved up nicely. After the announcement, those gains were all given back and then some. It was a pivotal moment. In a flash,... READ MORE
My September 2 message addressed the question about whether the market is in a normal correction or something more serious. We'll find out soon enough. I've leaned toward the correction view (a drop of 10-15%), but a lot of longer-term indicators suggest a more serious decline... READ MORE
To say the past three weeks have been wild would be a major understatement. For example, the S&P lost 11% of its value in just 4 trading days ending in the most recent low of 1867 on August 24. Then it gained over 8% from that August 24... READ MORE
FED DECISION TO LEAVE RATES ALONE SHAKES MARKETS ... I'm not sure what the Fed said on Thursday that got everyone upset. It acknowledged weakness in foreign markets (like China) and low inflation. We already knew about plunging Chinese stocks and weak commodity prices. Even so, markets took a... READ MORE
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the 7-10 YR T-Bond ETF (IEF) are going their separate ways as opposing wedges takes shape and IEF outperforms SPY (bonds outperform stocks). First, note that I am using close-only price charts to filter out some of the noise few weeks. This... READ MORE
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the 7-10 YR T-Bond ETF (IEF) are going their separate ways as opposing wedges takes shape and IEF outperforms SPY (bonds outperform stocks). First, note that I am using close-only price charts to filter out some of the noise few weeks. This... READ MORE
As we approach the end of the third quarter in 2015, it's time to unveil a few "Best Of" awards as they pertain to the NASDAQ 100. Let's get this party started: Best Buy & Hold Google (GOOGL). The long-term chart speaks for itself.... READ MORE
U.S. equities have been very weak since mid-August with many sectors, industry groups and individual stocks broken down technically. In recent days and weeks, many high profile stocks have struggled to clear falling 20 day EMAs. So it's always nice to see industry groups or stocks bucking... READ MORE