* -Some short-term momentum indicators weaken but are not yet bearish. * -Dollar related relationships close to an upside breakout * -Gold and silver under pressure US Equities They say that the most critical points of a flight are takeoff and landing. The same is true in technical analysis where the most critical... READ MORE
SPY FILLS THE GAP AND CHALLENGES RESISTANCE ... Link for today's video. Stocks got a big bounce on Monday morning as the major index ETFs erased most of the losses from Friday. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) moving back above 209 in early trading... READ MORE
Perhaps one of the biggest mistakes we make is to misinterpret normal stock market rotation as a predecessor to a bear market. During a bull market, money rotates from sector to sector, from industry group to industry group and from stock to stock. Of course there are outperformers throughout a... READ MORE
Stocks meandered from Monday to Thursday and then got pummeled on Friday. There were two bouts of selling pressure that lasted less than two hours in total. The S&P 500 declined sharply on the open (45 minutes), firmed and then fell another ten points in the early afternoon... READ MORE
The U.S. Dollar has been chopping around its recent high for over a month, and we think it is probably topping out after a major advance. While the current EMA structure is still strongly bullish (50EMA above the 200EMA, and 20EMA above the 50EMA), we can see some technical... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Over the past couple of weeks, we been revamping our Point & Figure charting tool. The new version was released last week. It has several key improvements including: * You can now add up to 6 chart overlays per chart * You can save your settings as the "... READ MORE
Carl presented his chart that illustrates typical market cycles at our DecisionPoint LIVE! Webinar last Wednesday (Here is a link to that broadcast). (P.S. Don't miss the next episode! Watch for the link on the homepage this week under "What's New"') As... READ MORE
Chinese stocks have been on a tear over the last year. Mainland stocks are up 25% just this year. They were probably due for a pullback and they got one on Friday. Chinese authorities tightened rules on margin selling (and made it easier to do short selling). But they did... READ MORE
As traders we are faced with multiple decisions each day. This could include deciding when to enter a trade, deciding if what we see on a chart is valid, deciding what a reasonable price target might be and deciding where to place a stop loss in case a trade goes... READ MORE
I know looking at one industry group is taking a very small sample of the entire stock market, but throughout much of history the stock market has performed strongest when financial stocks, especially banks, at least go along for the ride. Let me show you a long-term chart of the... READ MORE
CHINESE ETFS DROP 5% ON FRIDAY... Chinese stocks have been on a tear over the last year. Mainland stocks are up 25% just this year. They were probably due for a pullback and they got one on Friday. Chinese authorities tightened rules on margin buying (and made it easier to... READ MORE
With a gap up and a gap down, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) formed an island reversal over the last four days. This is short-term bearish, but not enough to affect the longer trend, which is still up. To emphasize the short-term nature of this reversal, I am... READ MORE
SPY EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION ... Link for today's video. Stocks were down sharply in early trading on Friday. I think it is because there were more sellers than buyers, but media outlets seem to be blaming Europe and China. The Eurotop 100 ($EUR) fell 1.54% on Friday, but is... READ MORE
From a technical perspective, the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) makes a TON of sense. It's a very quick way to see how a stock is performing relative to its peers (ie, large cap, mid cap, small cap). These rankings are based on technical scores developed by John Murphy... READ MORE
Trading camaraderie provides inspiration and motivation, but it does not always emanate from fellow traders. The quest to become a consistently profitable trader demands ongoing discipline, and I often find that in unlikely places. I spent half my life being a business entrepreneur and the last 25 plus years engaging... READ MORE
After surging to new highs in February, Salesforce.com moved into a consolidation as volatility contracted. Notice that the Bollinger Bands narrowed over the last few weeks the BandWidth moved to its lowest level since mid October. Even though a volatility contraction does not give us directional clues, the stock... READ MORE
Stocks meandered on Thursday as the S&P 500 started negative, moved into positive territory and then finished slightly negative. The major index ETFs ended mixed with fractional gains in DIA and the Russell MicroCap iShares (IWC), but fractional losses in QQQ and IWM. The sectors were also mixed... READ MORE
Carl always told me that usually when bloggers state a question as the title of their blog, they never end up answering it. I plan on answering the question. We know that technical analysis is not a science, it is an art. Meaning that two people can look at the... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX IS WEAKENING... For the first time in nearly a year, the U.S. Dollar is showing signs of weakness. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the PowerShares US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) trading lower after forming two declining peaks since mid-March. It's now headed... READ MORE
After the close on Wednesday, Netflix (NFLX) topped revenue and earnings expectations and promptly rose to all-time highs. NFLX had been consolidating in bullish sideways fashion for over one year following its prior uptrend. Volume today is extremely heavy suggesting accumulation and, in my opinion, likely higher prices ahead. The... READ MORE
When we were young, we learned many things from our parents, older siblings, and teachers. Most of us generally accepted them as fact and did not bother to check to see if they were in fact true. Hey, I remember my Father telling me that if a turtle bit me,... READ MORE
Stocks gained ground on Wednesday with the major index ETFs posting modest gains. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) led the way with a .70% gain and a new high. The Energy SPDR (+2.4%), Materials SPDR (+1%) and Technology SPDR (.9%) led the sector SPDRs. The tech sector got a... READ MORE
NYSE INDEX TRADES AT NEW RECORD... Last Saturday's message showed the NYSE Composite Index ($NYA) testing its all-time highs formed over the last year. Chart 1 shows the NYA trading above those highs in record territory in morning trading. I take that as a positive sign for the... READ MORE
Better than expected earnings and technical price action follow through is perhaps my favorite combination when trading a stock. My background in public accounting leaves a warm place in my heart for management teams that execute on their business plan and are able to surprise Wall Street to the upside.... READ MORE
Stocks finished the day mixed with not a lot going on in the market. QQQ and IWM edged lower, while DIA and SPY edged higher. And I do mean "edged" because the gains and losses were minimal. Energy was the stand out performer in an otherwise lackluster day.... READ MORE
Prices continued to fall, carrying yesterday's decline slightly further. However, losses were recouped early as price bounced right off of the slow moving EMA. This price movement formed an ultra-short-term bull flag that if executed would bring price above yesterday's high. The purpose of the DecisionPoint... READ MORE
WEBINAR CHARTS AND NOTES... The following charts come from the Webinar on Tuesday, April 14th, featuring myself and Julius de Kempenaer of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs). Julius used a top-down analytical approach by starting with the big sectors, drilling down into the industry groups and then highlighting interesting stocks in... READ MORE
Stocks did the old pop and drop on Monday. The S&P 500 surged above 2105 on the open, peaked in the first hour and worked its way to the 2092 level by the close. It was a rather orderly decline. Small-caps bucked the selling pressure as IWM finished... READ MORE
On Monday, the Russell 2000 ($RUT) was breaking out to an all-time high intraday. Unfortunately, it wasn't confirmed on the close as this benchmark of small cap stocks reversed late in the day. It not only left a bearish tail to the upside and closed at its open... READ MORE
* - Confidence trying to improve in the bond market so that it can support higher equities. * - Oil trying to form a base. * - Declining peaks and troughs still in force for the Bloomberg Commodity ETN. Global Equities Throughout most of the bull market my Global A/D Line, comprising... READ MORE
MATERIALS ETF FIRMS IN RETRACEMENT ZONE... Link for today's video. The materials sector is at an interesting juncture because the long-term trend is up and it is trading near broken resistance after a throwback. Chart 1 shows the Equal-weight Materials ETF (RTM) within a long-term uptrend over the... READ MORE
Most everyone knows that Uncle Sam is waiting anxiously for April 15th to arrive. Don't look now, but it's almost here! Even if you decide to extend the filing date for your tax return, any balance due must be paid now. The payment generally cannot be... READ MORE
The performance pecking order changed in April as large-caps and techs moved from under performers to out performers. Even though small-caps and mid-caps are underperforming so far in April, they are still outperforming on a longer timeframe (since early February). The PerfChart below shows month-to-date performance for nine major index... READ MORE
Stocks finished strong on Friday and ended the week with modest gains. QQQ led the way with a 2.5% advance and is also the strongest for April. IWM and MDY lagged because they gained less than 1%. Industrials, energy, healthcare and technology led the sectors last week. Healthcare was... READ MORE
During our last webinar we received questions and comments to which we were unable to respond due to time constraints, so we will take this opportunity to address some of them. Q: On $GOLD you see a double bottom. I see a potential head and shoulders top, implying further declines.... READ MORE
DJ STOXX EUROPE 600 AND FTSE ALL WORLD INDEX HIT RECORD HIGHS ... The major uptrend in foreign stocks took another big step to the upside this week. That was especially true in Europe and Asia. The monthly bars in Chart 1 show the Dow Jones STOXX Europe 600 Index ending... READ MORE
QQQ SURGES OFF SUPPORT ZONE... Link for today's video. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) getting another bounce off support this week and leading the major index ETFs over the last five days. Note that QQQ is up over 2% this week, which is more than... READ MORE
The volatility index ($VIX) charts the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. It's a sentiment indicator that measures the stock market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 day period. I could spend time talking about square roots, variance swaps and standard deviations,... READ MORE
Thomas Jefferson opined that “Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty.” For modern investors, I’d say, “Eternal vigilance is the price of profits.” This being the last installment of my three part series, I want to pull together the key pieces before I segue into the final Q &... READ MORE
Stocks started weak, but quickly found their footing and moved higher. SPY and QQQ led and closed at their highest levels of the month. Small-caps lagged as IWM and IJR closed slightly lower. Eight of the nine sectors were up with the Energy SPDR (XLE) as the only standout performer... READ MORE