PACIFIC EX-JAPAN ETF HITS NEW HIGH ... I wrote recently about strong uptrends in China and Hong Kong. I was asked by one reader why I hadn't included Japan. The reason is because Japan isn't doing nearly as well as the rest of Asia and the... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS NEAR MAY HIGH ... One of our readers asked about the lack of upside confirmation by the Dow Transports. According to Dow Theory, a bull market rally should be confirmed by new highs in both the transports and the industrials. Those concerns are being reduced by this week's... READ MORE
BIG DROP IN PPI HELDS BONDS AND BUILDERS... The biggest drop in core wholesale inflation in thirteen years had a beneficial effect on bonds and stocks today. [The only group that lost ground was basic materials which are tied to commodity prices like copper which have been falling]. The huge... READ MORE
LAM RESEARCH AND NVIDIA NEAR RECORD HIGHS ... On Friday, I listed a number of large technology stocks that were leading the Nasdaq market higher. With the Nasdaq market finally exceeding its spring highs (and leading the rest of the market higher today), I thought I'd look at some... READ MORE
A VISUAL COMPARISON WITH THE NYSE ... On Wednesday, I wrote that the Nasdaq market could start doing better than the broader market. The main reason simply has to do with the fact that the Nasdaq is cheap relative to NYSE issues. Chart 1 is a simple visual comparison of the... READ MORE
PRICE OF DEMOCRATIC VICTORY... Yesterday I showed drug stocks selling off on heavy volume. That continued again today and spread to the entire healthcare sector which was the day's weakest group. Chart 1 shows the Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV) not only breaking its 50-day moving average... READ MORE
THE CHINESE MAY DIVERSIFY AWAY FROM THE DOLLAR ... I've been writing recently about new signs of weakness in the U.S. Dollar. Two side-effects of a weaker dollar are stronger foreign stock markets (especially foreign ETFs) and stronger commodity markets, especially precious metals. Reuters reported today that... READ MORE
PHARM HOLDERS SELL OFF ON VOLUME ... The Democratic victory in yesterday's midterm election caused some selling in the healthcare sector today and drug stocks in particular. As a result, the day's weakest stock ETF was the Pharm Holders. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the... READ MORE
FOREIGN ETFS CONFIRM US BREAKOUT ... One of the recent concerns among market analysts was the lack of upside confirmation by foreign markets. Although most of the U.S. stock indexes have cleared their spring highs, foreign markets had been lagging behind. That's no longer the case. Chart 1... READ MORE
On the technical side, we believe the combination of price and volume is paramount to successfully trading the stock market. A strong second place finish goes to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or the "MACD". The standard settings on the MACD are 12, 26, 9. On daily charts,... READ MORE
The Semiconductor group is important to the performance of the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq is important to the performance of the overall market. Recent bearish developments in the Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) bode ill for the group and this is likely to weigh on both the Nasdaq and the S&... READ MORE
Since gold peaked around $725 in May of this year, it has been going through the process of digesting the huge advance that took place a year prior to that peak. At first it was not clear whether or not the gold bull market was over, but, as you can... READ MORE
The broader market rally off the June/July lows has pushed all the major indices higher; and in particular the Nasdaq Composite has outperformed rather noticeably if one looks at the Composite/S&P 500 Ratio. It has moved from 1.625 to 1.725; not a very large... READ MORE
Our servers are now safely relocated to their new (temporary) home and the construction of our new server room has begun.... READ MORE
The last time I showed the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) it was starting to bounce off chart support along its 2006 lows (see circles). Chart 1 shows that the XLE has climbed back over its moving average lines and may be heading toward the top of its 2006 trading range.... READ MORE
There is a lot more power inside our SharpCharts2 charting engine than we currently make available to our users. The problem is making that power available in an easy-to-use way. A great example of that is the ability to calculate indicators based on something other than the closing... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS JUMP SHARPLY ... Unexpectedly strong job figures caught the bond market by surprise today and pushed bond yields sharply higher. The latest unemployment number fell to a five year low and payroll numbers for August and September were revised sharply higher. In addition, wages rose more than expected. Rising... READ MORE
INDIA HAS BEEN A WORLD LEADER ... I've received requests to look at some of the world's leading foreign markets. I thought I'd take the opportunity to look at some the big Asian leaders that I haven't written about before. This is also... READ MORE
PREVIOUS CYCLE BOTTOMS SAW A HIGHER VIX ... There was a lot of discussion about the four-year cycle at the conference of the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA) in Switzerland. Most of the discussion centered around the unusual nature of this year's rally. In most instances, the... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS FALL SHARPLY ... An unexpected drop in September consumer confidence and a drop in manufacturing activity have raised fears of an economic slowdown. That's pushing bond prices higher and bond yields lower. Chart 1 shows the 10-year T-note yield falling to the lowest level in... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX FAILS TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- EURO CLEARS 50-DAY LINE ... The last time I showed the U.S. Dollar Index, it was testing its July high and its 200-day moving. Since then it has weakened noticeably. Chart 1 (plotted through Friday) shows the USD falling below... READ MORE
A BIG WEEK FOR STOCKS... EDITOR'S NOTE: John is travelling this week. Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. John will be back next week. The bulls were out in force this week. The Dow and NYSE Composite reached all time highs,... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 AND NASDAQ LEAD BROAD ADVANCE ... Editor's Note: John Murphy is travelling this week and will return on Monday. The follow article was written by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. Stocks were broadly higher on Thursday with the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq leading the way. Large-caps... READ MORE
THE FED DOES AS EXPECTED... Editor's Note: John is travelling this week and will be back next Monday. Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. For the third straight time, the Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds target unchanged at 5.25%... READ MORE
OIL SERVICE HOLDRS BREAKS RESISTANCE... NOTE: John is travelling this week and will be back next Monday. Today's update is provided by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. The Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) led a rebound in the Energy sector on Tuesday with a surge above 134. This move... READ MORE
BIG BLUE HITS NEW 52-WEEK HIGH ... Two of the stocks that are leading the Dow to new highs are IBM and Walmart. That's interesting because both blue chips have been market laggards for a long time. Not anymore. Chart 1 shows IBM breaking through the highs of... READ MORE
Recall in my last article the "axis of normal returns" showing the potential move of the NASDAQ over the next 2-3 years to return to its "normal line". This time I'd like to approach the NASDAQ's potential move from another angle... READ MORE
The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) was a top performer from April to September, but went through a period of underperformance over the last 4-5 weeks. The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 kept right on trucking in September and October. The Dow recorded a new all time high... READ MORE
For several months these articles have included a reminder that "Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball." To clarify, a windsock is used to ascertain the current wind direction and intensity. A crystal ball is used to predict the future. As a practical matter, if we... READ MORE
First, much continues to be made of the decline in crude oil prices, and the positive impact of lower energy prices upon the world consumer et al. This much is known; but oil service stocks have been "taken to the proverbial woodshed" and beaten to death, which creates... READ MORE
JOHN MURPHY TRAVELLING THIS WEEK - John will be presenting at the IFTA Conference in Switzerland this week and will not be online after Monday. We've arranged for Arthur Hill (you can read he column below) to contribute commentary while John is away. NEW METHOD FOR REQUESTING MISSING STOCKS... READ MORE
CATERPILLAR HURT BY WEAK HOUSING ... A plunge in Caterpillar on Friday, Oct 20th, unsettled the market. And for good reason. The bad news from the stock was blamed on a weak housing sector. Why that's worth noting is because Wall Street seems to be dismissing the housing meltdown... READ MORE
The Dow Industrials continued to set new highs last week and several interesting sectors led the way - but I'm not going to talk about that. (Our expert columnists have it covered below anyways.) I'm going to share some interested statistics with you about how StockCharts.com... READ MORE
AIRLINES BENEFIT FROM FALLING OIL ... One of the cliches of the market is that the transportation sector is very energy sensitive. Over the last few years, however, that hasn't necessarily been the case. Rails and truckers have done reasonably well in the face of rising energy prices. Part... READ MORE
BOUNCE IN ENERGY SECTOR ... With the Nasdaq starting to slip a bit, and the Dow struggling with psychologicl resistance around 12,000 (in a generally overbought market), one of our readers if there were any new signs that the market was turning a bit defensive. Actually there are, but they&... READ MORE
DRUGS REACH NEW FOUR-YEAR HIGH ... Drug stocks were the day's strongest market group today. That's coming at a very good time for this formerly neglected group. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the AMEX Pharmaceutical Index (DRG) breaking through its early 2004 peak to... READ MORE
NASDAQ LEADS MARKET LOWER ... Yesterday I wrote about the Nasdaq market being up against potential chart resistance at its spring high and the possibility of at least a pullback from that level. Adding to that concern is the fact that the Nasdaq (and the rest of the market) is over-... READ MORE
NYSE HITS NEW RECORD ... The market passed one test today and has another one right behind that one. Chart 1 shows the New York Composite Index clearing its May high to reach a new record. That puts it in upward sync with the Dow and the S&P 500.... READ MORE
NASDAQ NEARS ITS SPRING HIGH ... It seems like the market has to prove itself every time a major stock index approaches a previous peak. With all of the attention being given to upside breakouts in the Dow and the S&P 500, it shouldn't go unnoticed that... READ MORE
ENERGY SPDR BOUNCES OFF 2006 LOWS ... With oil prices starting to bounce, money is flowing back into the energy sector. Earlier in the week I showed the Energy Select SPDR (XLE) stabilizing above chart support formed along its 2006 lows. I suggested that the group looked oversold. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE