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SMALL CAPS HAVE BEEN WEAKER THAN LARGE CAPS THIS YEAR -- A WEAKER DOLLAR MAY BE A REASON -- FALLING RATES ARE MORE LIKELY -- FINANCIALS ARE BIGGEST SMALL CAP SECTOR -- PREFERENCE FOR LARGE DIVIDEND-PAYING STOCKS MAY ALSO BE HURTING SMALL CAPS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL CAPS CONTINUE TO UNDERPERFORM...Small cap stocks have been lagging behind larger stocks for most of this year.   And in a big way.   The black bars in Chart 1 show the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (RUT) lagging behind the S&P 500 Large Cap Index (gray area)...   READ MORE 

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Four Reasons Why The Gold Breakout Is Likely To Be Valid

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* A Weaker Dollar is Bullish for Gold * The Gold 6/15 PPO Model for Gold is Bullish * Global Gold is Breaking Out * Gold Shares Showing Signs of Strength * Gold Special K Crossed its Bear Market Trend Line Last week, Gold experienced an upside breakout from a multi-year base. I always...   READ MORE 

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FALLING FOREIGN BOND YIELDS ARE PULLING TREASURY YIELDS LOWER -- GLOBAL STOCK INDEXES HAVE A STRONG WEEK AND NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUTS -- FALLING YIELDS AND A WEAKER DOLLAR PUSH GOLD TO SIX-YEAR HIGH -- GOLD MINERS ALSO HAD A BREAKOUT WEEK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NEGATIVE FOREIGN YIELDS LEAD TREASURY YIELDS LOWER...Bond yields are dropping all over the world.  The British 10-Year yield fell this week to the lowest level since 2016 (0.80%).   The Japanese yield remains in negative territory.   Nearly a quarter of bond yields in global developed markets are already negative...   READ MORE 

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FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED BUT SETS STAGE FOR JULY RATE CUT -- BOND AND STOCK PRICES GAIN -- BIG DROP IN BOND YIELDS WEAKENS BANK STOCKS -- WEAK DOLLAR PUSHES GOLD TO NEW HIGH FOR THE YEAR -- HEALTHCARE SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS GAIN ON EXPECTED RATE CUT... The Fed left rates unchanged today, but dropped the word "patient" from its statement, and gave the strong impression that a rate cut is likely. Fed fund futures are betting on a rate cut in July. That sent bond and stock prices...   READ MORE 

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REGIONAL BANK LEADERS INCLUDE SUNTRUST, CITIZENS FINANCIAL, AND BB&T -- ALL THREE APPEAR TO BE FORMING SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRIANGLES ON DISPLAY...Today's earlier message showed the S&P Bank SPDR (KBE) trying to rise above its 200-day moving average. It also mentioned that regional banks were leading today's bank rebound. While drilling down through some regional bank charts, I noticed that many of...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE SPDR NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- DRUG STOCKS ARE ALSO BREAKING OUT -- BANKS RALLY ON FED DAY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE SPDR NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT...Money has been flowing into healthcare stocks since the end of April. And the sector may be on the verge of a bullish breakout. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Health Care SPDR (XLV) testing its early March intra-day peak at 93.10....   READ MORE 

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S&P Composite Continues To Lead The World Higher As More Short-Term Indicators Go Bullish

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* US Breaking Out Against the World * The World Itself Looks to be in Pretty Good Technical Shape * NYSE A/D and Upside/Downside Lines at Record Levels * More Short-Term US Market Indicators Turn Bullish * Multiple Momentum Trend Line Breaks is Very Positive * There Is Always Something to Worry About US...   READ MORE 

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MONTHLY SECTOR RANKINGS SHOW DEFENSIVE LEADERSHIP THAT INCLUDES UTILITIES, HEALTH CARE, REAL ESTATE, AND CONSUMER STAPLES -- GOLD MINERS LED MATERIALS HIGHER -- HOMEBUILDERS ARE LEADING CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR HIGHER TODAY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SHOWS DEFENSIVE LEADERSHIP...Chart 1 is taken from the Sector Summary page for the past month. And it shows that investors are still gravitating toward defensive issues. Four of the top sectors are utilities, health care, real estate, and consumer staples. All four are defensive in nature. Even...   READ MORE 

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GOLD SHARES ARE RISING WITH THE METAL -- AND ARE NEARING A TEST OF 2019 HIGHS -- THE FACT THAT GOLD MINERS ARE RISING FASTER THAN BULLION IS ANOTHER POSITIVE SIGN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD MINERS ETF NEARS TEST OF 2019 HIGH...Yesterday's message wrote about the price of gold being in the late stages of a potential bottoming formation. It also suggested that three intermarket forces were working in gold's favor. They include a weaker dollar, falling interest rates,...   READ MORE 

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INTERMARKET TRENDS ARE STARTING TO FAVOR GOLD -- A WEAKER DOLLAR IS ONE OF THEM -- AND FALLING INTEREST RATES -- GOLD HAS DONE BETTER OVER THE LAST YEAR WHEN STOCKS HAVE WEAKENED -- GOLD IS TESTING MAJOR OVERHEAD RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

A WEAKER DOLLAR INCREASES APPEAL OF GOLD... The brown monthly bars in Chart 1 show the price of gold forming a potential bottoming formation that started nearly four years ago when it hit bottom in late 2015. Since then, the price of bullion has traded between that low and a...   READ MORE 

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THE McCLELLAN OSCILLATOR TURNED POSITIVE THIS WEEK -- THAT'S BOOSTING THE McCLELLAN SUMMATION INDEX AND KEEPING ITS 2019 UPTREND INTACT -- BOTH ARE MEASURES OF MARKET BREADTH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOTH McCLELLAN BREATH INDICATORS TURN UP...  Chart 1 includes two breadth indicators that work together.   Both are compared to the NYSE Composite Index (upper box).  The dashed line in the lower part of the chart plots the McClellan Summation Index.  That's a long term measure of market breadth....   READ MORE 

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STOCKS START THE WEEK ON A STRONG NOTE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK INDEXES CLEAR 50-DAY AVERAGES... Stocks are starting the week on a strong note.   Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow and S&P 500 trading above their 50-day averages.   The Dow has also cleared initial resistance at 26,000.  Chart 2 shows the SPX also exceeding overhead resistance...   READ MORE 

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Seven Reasons For Being Bullish

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Financial Velocity Indicator Poised to Go Bullish * Oversold NASDAQ Volume in a Position to Support a Rally * Rapid Expansion of Net New Highs is Bullish * Global Breadth Turning? * When Stock Exchanges Break to the Upside, That’s Usually Bullish for Stocks Financial Velocity Indicator Poised to Go Bullish One of...   READ MORE 

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DOW ENDS WEEK ON A STRONG NOTE -- TECHNOLOGY LEADS FRIDAY RALLY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW ENDS WEEKLY LOSING STREAK The Dow Industrials gained 263 points today (1.02%) to end the week on a strong note.  That also ends a six-week losing streak for the blue chip index.  Chart 1 shows the Dow regaining its 200-day average on Wednesday, and ending the week right...   READ MORE 

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10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HEADED TOWARD TEST OF 2017 LOW -- THAT'S HELPING PUSH DIVIDEND PAYING STOCK SECTORS INTO RECORD TERRITORY -- BUT IS CAUSING BANKS TO LAG BEHIND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD NEARS TEST OF 2017 LOW... The 10-Year Treasury yield is falling another 6 basis points today to 2.06% which is drawing dangerously close to its 2017 low. The weekly bars in Chart 2 show that year's intra-day yield low at 2.03%. Its lowest...   READ MORE 

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PHARMACEUTIALS LEAD HEALTH CARE SPDR TO POSSIBLE UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- DRUG LEADERS ARE ABBOTT LABS, MERCK, AND PFIZER -- MEDICAL EQUIPMENT STOCKS ALSO LOOK STRONG -- THAT INCLUDES BOSTON SCIENTIFIC, MEDTRONIC, AND THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE SPDR MAY BE TURNING UP ... The health care sector may be nearing an upside breakout. The daily bars in Chart 1 shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV) trading above its 200-day average in today's trading; and testing its late May intra-day peak at 90.18. A close...   READ MORE 

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Martin Pring's Monthly Market Roundup 2019-06-03

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

The monthly Market Roundup video for June is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of Pring Turner Capital Group of Walnut Creek or its affiliates....   READ MORE 

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Can They Pull The Trigger On Gold And The Yen?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Long-Term Picture Shows Gold Close to a Breakout * The Shares Are on the Cusp As Well * Short-Term Indicators for Gold Go Bullish * Yen Emerging From a Breakout I like to use an indicator that I call “Risk On Risk Off,” which combines an index comprising several risky entities with another...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS RALLY ON INCREASED HOPE FOR A RATE CUT -- S&P 500 REGAINS 200-DAY LINE -- TECHNOLOGY AND CYCLICAL SPDRS HOLD THEIR 200-DAY LINES -- WHILE FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, AND MATERIALS REGAIN THEIR RED LINES -- VIX FALLS FURTHER BELOW 20

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 TRADES BACK OVER ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE... A combination of a short-term oversold condition and dovish sounding comments from the head of the Fed are giving a big lift to stocks today. All major indexes are are showing strong gains with the Nasdaq in the lead (+2....   READ MORE 

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THREAT OF MEXICAN TARIFFS PUSHES GLOBAL STOCKS LOWER -- 200-DAY AVERAGES ARE BEING BROKEN -- AUTOS ARE BEING HIT ESPECIALLY HARD -- INCLUDING GENERAL MOTORS -- THERE'S A REASON WHY BANKS AND ENERGY STOCKS ARE FALLING TOGETHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

200-DAY AVERAGES ARE BEING BROKEN... The threat of tariffs on Mexican imports is rattling global markets today. And more technical damage is being done. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling below their March low near 25,200. That puts the Dow at the lowest level since late January. Chart...   READ MORE 

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Deteriorating Confidence Is Not Good For Stocks And Commodities But Is For Bonds

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Flight to Safety Leaves Stocks Behind * S&P vs. Gold is Another Measure of Confidence That’s Deteriorating * High-Quality Bonds Like Deteriorating Confidence * A Rising Gold/Commodity Ratio is Actually Bearish for Commodities Flight to Safety Leaves Stocks Behind Last week, I wrote that it was nail-biting time for...   READ MORE 

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FALLING BOND YIELDS CAUSE FLIGHT TO SAFETY OF TREASURY BONDS -- TEN YEAR - 3 MONTH YIELD CURVE INVERTS -- STOCKS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN -- DOW TRADES BELOW ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- NASDAQ AND S&P 500 ARE THREATENING THEIR RED LINES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD MAY BE HEADING TO 2%... The surprising drop in global bond yields is continuing. The weekly bars in Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield falling today to 2.22% which is the lowest level since September 2017. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the next...   READ MORE 

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Interest Rates Are Breaking Down On A Worldwide Basis

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Current Trend of Declining Rates Seen as Part of a Large Base * Downside Breakouts in Yields are Worldwide in Scope * US Short-Rates Look Vulnerable as Well * 30-Year Yield Completes a Top * Stocks and Commodities versus Bonds Current Trend of Declining Rates Seen as Part of a Large Base This week...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE SPDR IS TRYING TO CLEAR MOVING AVERAGE LINES -- MEDTRONIC AND BOSTON SCIENTIFIC LEAD MEDICAL EQUIPMENT GROUP HIGHER -- MERCK AND MCKESSON ARE DRUG LEADERS -- TECH SECTOR IS ONE OF MAY'S WEAKEST GROUPS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE IS GETTING BETTER ... While a lot of attention is being given to stock market swings over the last month, and recent selling in everything related to tariffs and global trade, one group has been quietly getting stronger. And that's healthcare. Healthcare remains this year's weakest...   READ MORE 

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STOCK SELLING INTENSIFIES -- DOW TRADES BELOW ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- NASDAQ AND S&P 500 ARE DROPPING TOWARD THEIR 200-DAY LINES -- IF THEY DON'T HOLD, A TEST OF THEIR MARCH LOWS WOULD BE NEXT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRADE TENSIONS CONTINUE TO WEIGH ON STOCKS... Stocks are under heavy selling pressure today. Energy stocks are leading the market lower with a drop of more than -3%, while oil is dropping nearly twice as much. Technology, industrials, and financials are down -2% or more. As has been the case...   READ MORE 

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DOW TRANSPORTS FALL BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE -- AMERICAN AIRLINES, FEDEX, AND JB HUNT ARE LEADING IT LOWER -- WHILE UTILITIES REACH NEW RECORD -- TECHS, INDUSTRIALS, AND CYCLICALS WEAKEN DURING MAY -- WHILE DEFENSIVE GROUPS TAKE LEADERSHIP ROLE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW TRANSPORTS FALL BACK BELOW 200-DAY LINE... Transportation stocks are one of the weakest parts of the market today. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Transportation Average now trading below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Not surprisingly, tranports are also showing relative weakness. The blue line in Chart 1...   READ MORE 

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Nail Biting Time For Equities, Green Shoots For Agricultural Commodities

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Top or Consolidation for Equities? * Agricultural Commodities Perking Up Following a Severe Sell-Off * Grains Fully Supporting Price Action in the DBA Top or Consolidation for Equities? The S&P, like the other market averages, has been in a trading range since March. We will have to see how it...   READ MORE 

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WEEKLY SECTOR RANKINGS SHOW A DEFENSIVE MARKET -- SAFE HAVENS WERE MARKET LEADERS -- WHILE TRADE SENSITIVE GROUPS FELL THE MOST -- FINANCIALS WERE THE WEEK'S WORST PERFORMERS -- FALLING BOND YIELDS HAVE HURT BANKS WHILE BOOSTING HOMEBUILDERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WEEKLY SECTOR RANKINGS SHOW DEFENSIVE MARKET ... The table in Chart 1 plots the relative performance of the eleven market sectors for the week. And they show a generally defensive market. That can be seen by the fact that REITs, utilities, and consumer staples are the three top sectors for the...   READ MORE 

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AMAZON.COM AND LENNAR LEAD CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR HIGHER -- ADOBE AND CISCO LEAD TECHNOLOGY -- DRUG STOCKS BOOST HEALTHCARE -- MERCK IS LEADING -- NASDAQ AND S&P 500 REGAIN 50-DAY LINES AS ALL ELEVEN SECTORS GAIN GROUND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR REGAINS 50-DAY LINE... Stocks are having another strong day today with all eleven market sectors in the red. Cyclical stocks are helping lead it higher. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) trading back over its 50-day average (blue line). Two of its biggest gainers are...   READ MORE 

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SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES BOUNCE OFF CHART SUPPORT -- WITH APPLIED MATERIALS AND LAM RESEARCH IN THE LEAD -- INTERNET STOCKS LEAD COMMUNICATION SECTOR HIGHER -- FACEBOOK AND GOOGLE ARE HOLDING MOVING AVERAGE LINES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES BOUNCE OFF CHART SUPPORT... Technology stocks are helping lead today's stock rebound. With help from semiconductors. Chart 1 shows the PHLX Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) bouncing off potential chart support along its August/September highs near 190. Its 9-day RSI line (upper box) is also bouncing from...   READ MORE 

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Gold Breaks Out Against Stocks; What Does That Mean, Apart From The Obvious?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Gold Breaks Out against Stocks * Gold Itself is about to Test Mega-Resistance * When Gold Beats Stocks, that’s usually Bullish for Gold - and Bearish for Stocks * Gold Leads Commodities Gold Breaks Out against Stocks Monday saw the gold/stock ratio break decisively above its 2019 downtrend line. The line...   READ MORE 

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CHINESE RETALIATORY TARIFFS SEND GLOBAL STOCKS LOWER AGAIN -- TRADE-SENSITIVE ASSETS LEAD TODAY'S RETREAT WHILE SAFE HAVENS CONTINUE TO GAIN -- ARE DRUG STOCKS THAT DEFENSIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK SELLING CONTINUES ... Stock prices fell sharply again today and are continuing the trade-inspired selling that started last week. Retaliatory tariffs announced by China appear to be the main catalyst pushing global stocks lower. As a result, markets with the most exposure to trade tensions and Chinese tariffs are falling...   READ MORE 

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TRADE TENSIONS LEAD TO BAD WEEK FOR GLOBAL STOCKS -- CHINESE STOCKS LEAD GLOBAL RETREAT -- TRADE SENSITIVE SECTORS DROP THE MOST WHILE SAFE HAVENS LEAD -- A LATE FRIDAY REBOUND KEPT STOCK INDEXES ABOVE MOVING AVERAGE LINES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CHINESE STOCKS LEAD WEEKLY RETREAT ... An escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China pushed global stocks lower this past week. The S&P 500 lost -2.2% which was its biggest weekly drop this year. Canadian and U.S. stocks are meeting resistance at their 2018...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE IS ONE OF THE DAY'S WEAKEST SECTORS AND NOT ACTING LIKE A SAFE HAVEN -- BIOTECHS ARE LEADNG THEM LOWER -- STAPLES, UTILITIES, AND REITS ARE THE REAL HAVENS -- SECTOR SUMMARY TABLE SHOWS A MORE DEFENSIVE SECTOR ALIGNMENT AS STOCK PRICES WEAKEN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE SECTOR DOESN'T LOOK VERY DEFENSIVE... During a guest appearance yesterday on StockChartsTV with Erin Swenlin and Tom Bowley, one of our viewers asked if healthcare was considered a defensive sector, and was it a good sector to hold in the current environment. My response was that some...   READ MORE 

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The China Trade Talks And The Technical Position Of The Equity Market

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Long-Term Divergences * Some Short-Term Technical Sell Signals Triggered in the Last Few Days * Prices May Be Falling, But Bond Spreads (Confidence) are Holding in There Long-Term Divergences My first reaction to this week’s stock market tantrum (in response to the China trade talks) was to brush it off as...   READ MORE 

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WORLD STOCK INDEXES ARE TESTING OVERHEAD RESISTANCE AND LOOKING OVER-EXTENDED -- THAT MAY EXPLAIN THEIR BAD REACTION TO TRADE TENSIONS -- WORLD STOCKS HAVE TO CLEAR RESISTANCE LEVELS TO RESUME THEIR 2019 UPTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRADE TENSIONS RATTLE OVEREXTENDED GLOBAL STOCKS ... Renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China rattled global stocks this week. Stock prices are rising and falling with each news report. After falling sharply yesterday (Tuesday), stocks are rebounding today on more optimistic news reports about the meeting between U.S....   READ MORE 

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STOCK PULLBACK CONTINUES -- ALL MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ARE BACK BELOW LAST YEAR'S PEAK -- MOVING AVERAGE LINES ARE BEING TESTED -- ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND INDUSTRIALS ARE AMONG BIGGEST SECTOR LOSERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MAJOR STOCK INDEXES LOSE MORE GROUND ... The stock market pullback that started yesterday is continuing again today. And all three major stock indexes appear headed for a test of underlying moving average lines. First and foremost, it's where this pullback is starting from that's most concerning....   READ MORE 

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STRONG JOBS REPORT BOOSTS STOCKS -- TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP -- S&P 500 NEARS ANOTHER RECORD -- INSURANCE STOCKS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER -- METLIFE NEARS MAJOR UPSIDE BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 TRIES TO REGAIN RECORD HIGH ... A surprisingly strong jobs report this morning has given stocks a big boost today. All major indexes are having a strong day with the Nasdaq and small caps in the lead (more on that shortly). Transports are also having an especially...   READ MORE 

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Commodities: Down Now, Up Later?

by Martin Pring,

President, Pring Research

* Two Key Commodity Benchmarks Violated Trend Lines * Commodity Sector ETFs Breaking as Well * Longer-Term Picture May be Reversing In early April, I tacked on a couple of commodity charts at the end of an article that commented on global equities breaking out. There, I noticed that some commodity indexes were...   READ MORE 

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WEAK INFLATION ISN'T TRANSITORY -- COMMODITY PRICES HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR A DECADE -- A RISING DOLLAR IS ONE REASON WHY -- STOCKS REACT BADLY TO LESS DOVISH FED -- RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST THE DOLLAR -- CRUDE OIL LEADS COMMODITIES LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COMMODITIES HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR A DECADE ... Yesterday's message suggested that weaker commodity prices should provide some comfort to the Fed since subdued inflation would allow the Fed to keep rates on hold and prolong the decade-long economic recovery. It turns out the Fed is more worried than...   READ MORE