DOW ENDS WEEKLY LOSING STREAK The Dow Industrials gained 263 points today (1.02%) to end the week on a strong note. That also ends a six-week losing streak for the blue chip index. Chart 1 shows the Dow regaining its 200-day average on Wednesday, and ending the week right... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD NEARS TEST OF 2017 LOW... The 10-Year Treasury yield is falling another 6 basis points today to 2.06% which is drawing dangerously close to its 2017 low. The weekly bars in Chart 2 show that year's intra-day yield low at 2.03%. Its lowest... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE SPDR MAY BE TURNING UP ... The health care sector may be nearing an upside breakout. The daily bars in Chart 1 shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV) trading above its 200-day average in today's trading; and testing its late May intra-day peak at 90.18. A close... READ MORE
The monthly Market Roundup video for June is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of Pring Turner Capital Group of Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
* Long-Term Picture Shows Gold Close to a Breakout * The Shares Are on the Cusp As Well * Short-Term Indicators for Gold Go Bullish * Yen Emerging From a Breakout I like to use an indicator that I call “Risk On Risk Off,” which combines an index comprising several risky entities with another... READ MORE
S&P 500 TRADES BACK OVER ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE... A combination of a short-term oversold condition and dovish sounding comments from the head of the Fed are giving a big lift to stocks today. All major indexes are are showing strong gains with the Nasdaq in the lead (+2.... READ MORE
200-DAY AVERAGES ARE BEING BROKEN... The threat of tariffs on Mexican imports is rattling global markets today. And more technical damage is being done. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling below their March low near 25,200. That puts the Dow at the lowest level since late January. Chart... READ MORE
* Flight to Safety Leaves Stocks Behind * S&P vs. Gold is Another Measure of Confidence That’s Deteriorating * High-Quality Bonds Like Deteriorating Confidence * A Rising Gold/Commodity Ratio is Actually Bearish for Commodities Flight to Safety Leaves Stocks Behind Last week, I wrote that it was nail-biting time for... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD MAY BE HEADING TO 2%... The surprising drop in global bond yields is continuing. The weekly bars in Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield falling today to 2.22% which is the lowest level since September 2017. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the next... READ MORE
* Current Trend of Declining Rates Seen as Part of a Large Base * Downside Breakouts in Yields are Worldwide in Scope * US Short-Rates Look Vulnerable as Well * 30-Year Yield Completes a Top * Stocks and Commodities versus Bonds Current Trend of Declining Rates Seen as Part of a Large Base This week... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE IS GETTING BETTER ... While a lot of attention is being given to stock market swings over the last month, and recent selling in everything related to tariffs and global trade, one group has been quietly getting stronger. And that's healthcare. Healthcare remains this year's weakest... READ MORE
TRADE TENSIONS CONTINUE TO WEIGH ON STOCKS... Stocks are under heavy selling pressure today. Energy stocks are leading the market lower with a drop of more than -3%, while oil is dropping nearly twice as much. Technology, industrials, and financials are down -2% or more. As has been the case... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS FALL BACK BELOW 200-DAY LINE... Transportation stocks are one of the weakest parts of the market today. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Transportation Average now trading below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Not surprisingly, tranports are also showing relative weakness. The blue line in Chart 1... READ MORE
* Top or Consolidation for Equities? * Agricultural Commodities Perking Up Following a Severe Sell-Off * Grains Fully Supporting Price Action in the DBA Top or Consolidation for Equities? The S&P, like the other market averages, has been in a trading range since March. We will have to see how it... READ MORE
WEEKLY SECTOR RANKINGS SHOW DEFENSIVE MARKET ... The table in Chart 1 plots the relative performance of the eleven market sectors for the week. And they show a generally defensive market. That can be seen by the fact that REITs, utilities, and consumer staples are the three top sectors for the... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR REGAINS 50-DAY LINE... Stocks are having another strong day today with all eleven market sectors in the red. Cyclical stocks are helping lead it higher. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) trading back over its 50-day average (blue line). Two of its biggest gainers are... READ MORE
SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES BOUNCE OFF CHART SUPPORT... Technology stocks are helping lead today's stock rebound. With help from semiconductors. Chart 1 shows the PHLX Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) bouncing off potential chart support along its August/September highs near 190. Its 9-day RSI line (upper box) is also bouncing from... READ MORE
* Gold Breaks Out against Stocks * Gold Itself is about to Test Mega-Resistance * When Gold Beats Stocks, that’s usually Bullish for Gold - and Bearish for Stocks * Gold Leads Commodities Gold Breaks Out against Stocks Monday saw the gold/stock ratio break decisively above its 2019 downtrend line. The line... READ MORE
STOCK SELLING CONTINUES ... Stock prices fell sharply again today and are continuing the trade-inspired selling that started last week. Retaliatory tariffs announced by China appear to be the main catalyst pushing global stocks lower. As a result, markets with the most exposure to trade tensions and Chinese tariffs are falling... READ MORE
CHINESE STOCKS LEAD WEEKLY RETREAT ... An escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China pushed global stocks lower this past week. The S&P 500 lost -2.2% which was its biggest weekly drop this year. Canadian and U.S. stocks are meeting resistance at their 2018... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE SECTOR DOESN'T LOOK VERY DEFENSIVE... During a guest appearance yesterday on StockChartsTV with Erin Swenlin and Tom Bowley, one of our viewers asked if healthcare was considered a defensive sector, and was it a good sector to hold in the current environment. My response was that some... READ MORE
* Long-Term Divergences * Some Short-Term Technical Sell Signals Triggered in the Last Few Days * Prices May Be Falling, But Bond Spreads (Confidence) are Holding in There Long-Term Divergences My first reaction to this week’s stock market tantrum (in response to the China trade talks) was to brush it off as... READ MORE
TRADE TENSIONS RATTLE OVEREXTENDED GLOBAL STOCKS ... Renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China rattled global stocks this week. Stock prices are rising and falling with each news report. After falling sharply yesterday (Tuesday), stocks are rebounding today on more optimistic news reports about the meeting between U.S.... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES LOSE MORE GROUND ... The stock market pullback that started yesterday is continuing again today. And all three major stock indexes appear headed for a test of underlying moving average lines. First and foremost, it's where this pullback is starting from that's most concerning.... READ MORE
S&P 500 TRIES TO REGAIN RECORD HIGH ... A surprisingly strong jobs report this morning has given stocks a big boost today. All major indexes are having a strong day with the Nasdaq and small caps in the lead (more on that shortly). Transports are also having an especially... READ MORE
* Two Key Commodity Benchmarks Violated Trend Lines * Commodity Sector ETFs Breaking as Well * Longer-Term Picture May be Reversing In early April, I tacked on a couple of commodity charts at the end of an article that commented on global equities breaking out. There, I noticed that some commodity indexes were... READ MORE
COMMODITIES HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR A DECADE ... Yesterday's message suggested that weaker commodity prices should provide some comfort to the Fed since subdued inflation would allow the Fed to keep rates on hold and prolong the decade-long economic recovery. It turns out the Fed is more worried than... READ MORE
Here is the link to this month's Market Roundup video. There are a significant number of long-term charts that are starting to turn higher suggesting, that the brief economic slowdown in late 2018 is behind us and we are starting the next major leg higher. Market Roundup with... READ MORE
COMMODITY PRICES WEAKEN ... One of the factors the Fed is now considering to help formulate its monetary policy for the rest of the year is the question of inflation. Rising inflation puts pressure on the Fed to raise rates. Flat or falling inflation allows the Fed to stick with its... READ MORE
APRIL REBOUND IN FINANCIALS IS GIVING A BIG BOOST TO SMALL CAPS... I've been writing about the recent upturn in financial stocks and, to a lesser extent, small cap stocks. I also suggested that a stronger dollar might be helping smaller stocks. That's because a rising... READ MORE
INDUSTRIAL SPDR GAPS LOWER ... In a mixed market day, industrials are the weakest sector. Chart 1 shows the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) gapping lower today. That hasn't caused any serious chart damage with the XLI still trading well above its blue 50-day average. It is worth noting, however,... READ MORE
* The SPY/EFA Ratio Completes an Inverse Head-and-Shoulders * SPY/EFA Breakout also Bullish for the Dollar * The Euro, Swiss Franc and Yen * China Bucks the Flow The SPY/EFA Ratio Completes an Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Yesterday’s all-time new high in the S&P was well documented by the media,... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 TRADES ABOVE ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE... In the midst of a strong market day, small caps are showing a bigger percentage gain than large caps. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT) trading above its (red) 200-day moving average today. The RUT still needs to clear... READ MORE
RAILROAD STOCKS HAVE BECOME MARKET LEADERS... Two stock groups did better than the rest of the market this week. Transportation stocks had another strong week. As did the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) which was the week's strongest sector. Both have one group to thank for their strong performance.... READ MORE
BANKS, ENERGY, AND SMALL CAPS STRUGGLE WITH THEIR 200-DAY LINES... Three stock groups are still struggling to clear their 200-day lines. Chart 1 shows the KBW Bank Index sitting just below its red line. Lower bond yields today may be holding it back. But the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) has... READ MORE
* The Long-Term Picture Looks Positive * Gold’s Tuesday Downside Breakout Could Be the Spoiler * Platinum is Trying to Break Out Against Gold - Why That’s Important for the Economy The Long-Term Picture Looks Positive Over the last 6 years, it appears that the gold price has been trying to... READ MORE
ASSET MANAGERS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER ... Financials are the day's strongest sector. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) trading today at the highest level since last October. The solid gray line is a relative strength ratio of the XLF divided by the S&P 500; and... READ MORE
BANKS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER ... Strong earnings from three banks this morning have helped push that group sharply higher; and they're leading the financial sector and the market higher. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) gapping up to the highest level of the year (after regaining its... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 SMALL CAP INDEX IS TRYING TO CLEAR ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE... Last Wednesday's message showed the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index clearing its 200-day average; and suggested that left only the small caps to join the market rally. That may be about to happen. Chart... READ MORE
* Global Stocks Join Global A/D Line Above Key Trend Lines * Bitcoin Looking Better After an 80% Drop * Inflation vs. Deflation Global Stocks Join Global A/D Line Above Key Trend Lines Global stocks, represented in the form of the MSCI World Stock ETF (ACWI), peaked in January of last... READ MORE