Last November and December, it looked as if gold had broken out from a multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders. Since then, the price has dropped below the breakout area, and the long-term KST has begun to roll over. Just like takeoff and landing are the critical points for an aircraft, breakouts are... READ MORE
Today, Larry Williams will be hosting a "Family Gathering" meeting at 2pm Eastern Standard Time (11am Pacific). Sign-in in begins 5 minutes prior. The show will be recorded and posted online for those of you who cannot attend. Use the link below to join: Link to Join Webinar:... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom this coming Thursday, February 15 at 2:00pm Eastern Standard Time. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current... READ MORE
The vast majority of the primary trend indicators are pointing to a bull market and have been doing so for the better part of a year. Chart 1, for instance, shows that NYSE Margin Debt, or rather its long-term KST, has only recently gone bullish. The vertical lines point out... READ MORE
Let's begin this month with a look at ... Home Prices and Stocks Most people have the majority of their money in homes and/or stocks. Thus, I thought that this month, I would take a look at what should be happening in the real estate market. Let'... READ MORE
Oil is not only an important commodity in and of itself, but is also one has a substantial influence on commodity indexes in general. Its weight in the CRB Composite is 23%; for energy in total, it is 39%. Chart 1 compares the oil price to the CRB Composite, where... READ MORE
Some tools in technical analysis are totally objective, such as a moving average crossover. It may be debatable whether it's a decisive signal or not, but a crossover is nevertheless a crossover. Dow Theory, on the other hand, is much more subjective and, therefore, open to interpretation. For... READ MORE
In this video, Larry digs into rate cuts and how they affect the markets. When interest rates are high, money is in circulation. He's been watching the rate of inflation; as he notes, an object in motion tends to stay on the same path. He also warns against... READ MORE
Today, Larry Williams will be hosting a "Family Gathering" meeting at 2pm Eastern Standard Time (11am Pacific). Sign-in in begins 5 minutes prior. The show will be recorded and posted online for those of you who cannot attend. Use the link below to join: Link to Join Webinar:... READ MORE
Last week, eight new Bitcoin-based ETFs began trading courtesy of recent SEC approval. This launch was well anticipated, as the price had already run up in the hope that these new buyers would push it to an even higher level. The thought occurred to me that the situation is not... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom this coming Tuesday, January 16 at 2:00pm Eastern Standard Time. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current... READ MORE
A couple of weeks ago, I took note of the widespread interest in small caps amongst the technical community. I don't normally follow cap plays, but my contrary bones began to shake when I saw such acclaim at their recent performance following several false dawns in the last... READ MORE
In this must-see once a year special, Martin breaks down his comprehensive equity market outlook for 2024, accompanied by Bruce Fraser. Encompassing a secular (multi-business cycle) perspective of the forces that are likely to influence stocks and bonds over the coming years, Martin presents a look ahead at what'... READ MORE
It has been a great rally, but this week has seen the DJIA violate its post November up trendline. In addition, the 9-day RSI has retreated below its 70 overbought zone for the first time since early November, and the daily KST has triggered a sell signal. Is it time... READ MORE
Let's Get This Out of The Way Right Now For the last 18 years, I've had a love affair with my annual forecast report. Until I began writing this letter, it was the only thing I did. Many of you purchased it last year, and some... READ MORE
S&P 500 TESTS OLD HIGH... A lot of attention is being paid to the S&P 500 which is in the process of testing its record high. That can be seen in Chart 1. In addition, its 14-day RSI line is in a very overbought condition. That... READ MORE
Over the years, emerging markets as a group have experienced huge swings in relative performance. The latest one, which began in 2010, has been quite bearish. When such linear trends dominate the scene, reliable cyclical indicators, such as the long-term KST or monthly MACD, often give premature buy signals and... READ MORE
In this video, Larry presents his forecast for FANG stocks, including an analysis of the stock selloff for META. He then digs into the cycle of debt and why he's bothered about credit card writeoffs. After that, he examines the weekly economic index and GDP and how they... READ MORE
SPX RALLY BROADENS OUT... Two inflation reports this week showed consumer and producer price inflation cooling off. Then on Wednesday afternoon the Fed suggested that it may be ending its rate hikes, and might even lower rates three times in the coming year. That combination resulted in a big drop... READ MORE
Today, Larry Williams will be hosting a "Family Gathering" meeting at 2pm Eastern Standard Time (11am Pacific). Sign-in in begins 5 minutes prior. The show will be recorded and posted online for those of you who cannot attend. Use the link below to join: Link to Join Webinar:... READ MORE
I like to start off my approach to any market by taking a look at the long-term trend. That's because a rising tide not only lifts all boats, but the direction of the long-term trend determines the characteristics of those below it. For example, if the primary trend... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom this Thursday, December 14 at 2:00pm Eastern Standard Time. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current market... READ MORE
Technology (XLK) and Communications Services (XLC) have been the leaders since the bull market began in October of last year. However, they may need to look over their shoulders, as financials have been creeping up since the October 27 intermediate low. The short answer to the question posed by the... READ MORE
Santa Comes to Wall Street Maybe St. Nick gets into the eggnog before he visits Wall Street each year, because the trading pattern has been a step up, then a stumble down before recovering at the end of the year. I first noticed this Up-Down-Up pattern back in the early... READ MORE
SECTOR SPDRS IN UPTRENDS... The number of sectors in rally mode has broadened out which is a positive sign for stocks. You may recall concerns in recent months that the market rally was too concentrated in large growth stocks and lacked market breadth. That's no longer the case.... READ MORE
A lot of the time, I write articles that focus on markets or technical situations that should be monitored for a potential turn. This one is no different, except to say that these markets are not close to breakout points, but right at them. In short, it's fish-or-cut-bait... READ MORE
We spend a lot of time analyzing sector rotation, but there are also other relationships that can offer useful insights to internal market dynamics. One aspect of this is the relationship between market averages. NASDAQ vs. the DJIA As an example, Chart 1 plots the relationship between the NASDAQ Composite... READ MORE
PEAK IN OIL LED TO PEAK IN BOND YIELDS... Previous messages have shown a drop in bond yields starting a month ago coinciding with the fourth quarter rally in stocks. But there's another element in that story which is a sharp drop in the price of oil. That&... READ MORE
In this video, Larry begins with a followup on the October rally kickoff. He then covers stocks like CRWD, META, NVDA, LULU, and DKNG. Larry answers questions about seasonal and cyclical differences, his personal indicators, and what retailers rely most on for the Christmas season. He highlights some trades that... READ MORE
Today, Larry Williams will be hosting a "Family Gathering" meeting at 2pm Eastern Standard Time (11am Pacific). Sign-in in begins 5 minutes prior. The show will be recorded and posted online for those of you who cannot attend. Use the link below to join: Link to Join Webinar:... READ MORE
Larry is going LIVE! Don't miss the upcoming "Family Gathering" webinar with Larry Williams, airing live through Zoom this Thursday, November 16 at 2:00pm EST. In this must-see event, Larry will be presenting his current opinions on a broad variety of current market topics, directly... READ MORE
I last wrote about bonds and interest rates in August, as they were in the process of challenging their October 2022 highs. My conclusion at the time was that they were likely to go through, but that upside potential would be limited due to what seemed at the time to... READ MORE
NASDAQ CLEARS OCTOBER HIGH.. .After spending the week in a holding pattern, stocks are ending the week on a strong note and appear poised to continue their fourth quarter uptrend. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 testing its mid-October high and nearing an upside breakout. Odds for an... READ MORE
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an upbeat article on the market, pointing out the fact that many short- and intermediate-term indicators were in a potentially bullish position at a time when stocks seemed impervious to bad news. I concluded "That does not mean the market will go... READ MORE
TEN YEAR BOND YIELD MEETS RESISTANCE AT 5%... The 10-Year Treasury yield backed off sharply this week from long-term resistance near 5.00%. The upper box in Chart 1 also shows its 14-day RSI line peaking from overbought territory over 70 and falling to the lowest level in several months.... READ MORE
Understandably, most Middle Eastern country ETFs have performed poorly since the war broke out, but there is one noticeable exception, which I will get to later. Israel First, as might be expected, the iShares Israel ETF (EIS) has moved lower and completed what looks to be a massive top. The... READ MORE
The Million Dollar Stock Market Bet Warren Buffett proved his point in 2016 when he bet $1,000,000 that the S&P 500 Stock Index would outperform hedge funds. His bet was that active investment management by professionals would under-perform the returns of people who were passively investing.... READ MORE
S&P 500 BREAKS 200-DAY LINE...Last week's message showed the S&P 500 testing important support lines which included its 200-day moving average. Those support levels are being broken to the downside. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the SPX falling below its 200-... READ MORE
When Anwar Sadat, President of Egypt was assassinated in 1981, gold rallied sharply over the near-term, but the advance soon petered out. The reason was that gold was in a primary bear market, so the advance merely represented a counter-cyclical move. Gold has rallied sharply since the Middle East crisis... READ MORE
October is a significant month in the stock market, and in this pre-election year, there's a lot of uncertainty among investors, which makes the stock market more volatile. In this video, Larry discusses the October Seasonality and talks about stocks that generally perform well during the month. You&... READ MORE