Charts have always fascinated me, so I plow through a lot of them in the course of a typical week. To me, breakouts hold a similar buzz as a striker scoring a great goal from the edge of the penalty box in soccer. To boot, I do not see any... READ MORE
MORE NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES... My message from a couple of weeks ago showed various measures of market breadth failing to keep up with the S&P 500 which suggested that the current stock rally was on weak technical footing. Unfortunately, that situation hasn't improved. A number of breath... READ MORE
Chart 1 below shows that, on a monthly close basis, gold broke out from a large consolidation formation in March. It has built on that move in the first part of April by moving slightly higher. The implication is obviously for higher gold prices, once the overbought condition laid out... READ MORE
GOLD RALLY STALLS AT OVERHEAD RESISTANCE... Gold has risen to the highest level in a year and has been attracting a lot of attention lately. Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe haven asset when investors are concerned about the state of the economy in an inflationary environment. The weekly... READ MORE
These are not my words, but those of Mr. Market, who is doing his best to let the central bank know that rates are too high. Chart 1, for instance, compares the market-driven 5-year yield to that of the Effective Federal Funds. The dashed green arrows indicate that, in 2021,... READ MORE
EQUAL WEIGHTED SPX LAGS BEHIND...Stocks were little changed on the shortened trading week and have maintained their intermediate uptrend. The black bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 having reached the highest level in two months. The SPX also remains above moving average lines and may... READ MORE
Global equities have risen for the last three weeks and now are at or just below key chart points. Chart 1, for instance, shows that the S&P 500 index ($SPX) is close to breaking above resistance in the form of its 2022–23 down trendline. In reality, that... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES HAVE A STRONG WEEK...Although the stock market's long-term trend may still be in doubt, stocks are ending the quarter on a strong note. Starting with the weakest, Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials ending the quarter back above its 200-day moving average and in... READ MORE
Remember the wall-to-wall coverage concerning the FTX crypto collapse? It's a great example of why conventional wisdom and groupthink are usually wrong. The prevailing hysteria had most traders brainwashed into expecting further crypto collapses and price drops. The simple fact is that, the market had been anticipating trouble... READ MORE
BANK INDEX WEIGHS ON STOCKS...Despite day to day volatility, major stock indexes are trying to hold onto small gains for the week and are trying to hold underlying support levels. The black bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 bouncing last week off potential support at... READ MORE
In early February, I pointed out that five consistently correct long-term indicators had triggered primary bull trend buy signals. The article certainly did not represent good timing from a short-term point of view, as the market has been selling off ever since. Nevertheless, these indicators remain in the bullish camp.... READ MORE
S&P 500 STABILIZES NEAR DECEMBER LOW...A short-term oversold condition helps support stocks. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 bouncing off potential chart support at its December low. In addition, its 9-day RSI line in the upper box is bouncing off its... READ MORE
When Larry talks, you listen. It's a great rule to live by. Anyone who has followed Larry Williams' legendary work in the markets knows the expertise he brings and the value of his analysis. So, when Larry called and said "I've got thoughts to... READ MORE
There is a well-known saying going around Wall Street that, when the Fed hits the brakes, someone inevitably crashes through the windscreen. That obviously applies to shareholders and directors of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB), though depositors, following a nail-biting weekend, are apparently off the hook. It also warns the central... READ MORE
BANK INDEX COLLAPSES... A plunge in bank stocks this week has inflicted heavy technical damage on that group and is weighing heavily on the rest of the market. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the KBW Bank Index losing -16% on the week and falling to the lowest level... READ MORE
Last May, I wrote an article entitled "Bitcoin Bubble Finally Bursts", where I laid out the technical case for substantially lower prices. It was partially based on the fact that the 18-month ROC had peaked from a level in excess of 200%. My research, featuring 26 case studies... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES HOLD 200-DAY LINES...After a weak month of February, major stock indexes are finally attracting some new buying. More importantly, this week's rebound is happening at some important moving average lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials bouncing off potential chart support along its late December... READ MORE
Commodity prices are an imperfect but useful forecaster of consumer price inflation. A key secular trend indicator that I use for industrial commodity prices went bullish last year. Since then, prices have corrected. However, it makes sense to take the pulse of the commodity markets from time to time, in... READ MORE
DOW FAILS TEST OF AUGUST PEAK... The Dow Industrials led the three-month rally from their October low; and may be now leading the market lower. Chart 1 shows the Dow failing to clear a major resistance barrier at its August high and now falling back to the lowest level of... READ MORE
We are all aware of the investment principle that it's time to buy when the news is blackest. Even knowing this, it's always difficult to step up and click on that buy button, because the problems seem unsolvable. Moreover, how do we know for sure that... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR YIELD TESTS 3.90%... Bond yields climbed this week on two reports showing that inflation gained during January. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield testing some resistance at 3.90% formed at the end of December. A close above that level would put the TNX at the highest... READ MORE
The US Dollar Index ($USD) has taken a hit in the last few months, causing many commentators to cry "bear market." However, an examination of the long-term indicators doesn't indicate a consensus pointing in a southerly direction. Neither is there unanimity that the recent setback represents... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS ARE CLIMBING... Last week's message showed the 10-Year Treasury yield bouncing off its 200-day moving average suggesting that a rebound in yields might be starting. Chart 1 shows the TNX climbing above its 50-day moving average and a falling trendline extending back to its October high.... READ MORE
Every business cycle has an inflationary and deflationary part to it. And if you know the prevailing phase, it can be enormously helpful. For example, when inflation is dominating, it's usually a favorable environment for commodities and commodity defensive sectors, such as mining and energy. At such times,... READ MORE
SMALL CAP LEADERSHIP... The last couple of messages have shown improvement in market breadth. That improvement was reflected in rising advance-declines lines and percent of stocks over moving average lines. Here's another example of improving breadth in the form of small cap leadership. The daily bars in Chart... READ MORE
I have been negative on the market for some time. I believe that it's a wiser policy to wait for the long-term indicators to turn bullish, rather than trying to capture every twist and turn of those bear market rallies, pregnant as they are, with false breakouts and... READ MORE
NEXT TEST IS DECEMBER HIGH... The technical condition of the stock market continues to improve. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 clearing its 200-day moving average. Although not shown here, it also cleared a falling trendline extending back a year. Both are positive signs. The next test will... READ MORE
From the financial crisis in 2008 until October of last year, the U.S. stock market handsomely outperformed the Dow Jones Global Index ($DJW). However, recent price action suggests that this relationship may be about to change. Stated more accurately, U.S. relative performance may have peaked last October, just... READ MORE
S&P 500 REMAINS IN MAJOR DOWNTREND...Although stocks have experienced a counter-trend rally over the last three months, their major trend is still down. One way to measure that is by looking at where moving averages and trendlines are located. Chart 1 show the S&P 500... READ MORE
In the last couple of weeks, I've had a couple of conversations with clients asking how I go about selecting promising sectors, even when not much excites me at the moment. To start with, I'm a believer in the principle that the character of short-term moves—... READ MORE
Last week's message showed how a falling dollar was boosting the price of gold and its miners. The falling dollar may also be lending support to material stocks tied to various commodities which can also benefit from a weaker dollar. FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS MATERIAL STOCKS The green area... READ MORE
Most of the time, the major indexes move in tandem. Occasionally, they'll throw up positive and negative divergences that technical analysts can use to better identify important trend reversals. Today, we will look at two market averages whose 2022 price action has resulted in completely different potential chart... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS AND THE DOLLAR WEAKEN... The direction of interest rates plays a big role in determining the direction of the dollar. Rising U.S. rates during 2022 helped push the dollar to the highest level in twenty years. Chart 1, however, shows the 10-Year Treasury yield peaking during October... READ MORE
The Boy Scout Motto "Be Prepared" is apt for the year 2023. In this exclusive StockCharts TV special, Larry shows you the things you should be prepared for and some of his expectations for what's coming in the new year. This video was originally broadcast on... READ MORE
I don't usually get into individual stocks, but, back in August, I found Tesla's price action to be quite interesting. That's because I felt the stock, along with its fearless leader Elon Musk, were important icons of the 2020–2022 phase of the post-financial... READ MORE
STOCKS END YEAR UNDER PRESSURE... Little has changed since the last message written a couple of weeks ago. At that point, major stock indexes had failed a test of overhead resistance levels and were starting to weaken. They've weakened even further since then. Chart 1 shows the Dow... READ MORE
Statistically speaking, the last half of December is the best seasonal period of the year, part of which serves as what is popularly known as the Santa Claus rally. The first half of the month also has a slight edge to the upside, though that has not worked out so... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES ARE FAILING AT OVERHEAD RESISTANCE LEVELS... The year-end stock market rally appears to have run its course. A more hawkish Fed on Wednesday suggesting that rates will be higher for longer started the stock selling. This mornings's economic reports for November showed a drop in retail... READ MORE
One of my favorite chart lists is one called Interasset Ratios. As the name implies, it contains a library of charts that plot various long-term relationships between asset classes, such as the stock/bond ratio, bond/commodity relationship, and so forth. It's not something you want to focus... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH OVERHEAD RESISTANCE... The expected yearend rally has taken major stock indexes up against some formidable overhead resistance barriers. So far, the rally hasn't been enough to reverse the market's major downtrend. While seasonal trends are usually favorable during the fourth... READ MORE