S&P 500 REMAINS IN DOWNTREND...Stock prices continue to weaken with no sign of a bottom. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 having fallen to the lowest level in more than a year and nearing a 20% loss which signals a bear... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking Fund could be on the verge of breaking out from a 3-month consolidation pattern. It also points out that the number of commodities participating in the rally has been narrowing of late. That's because the indicator monitoring a universe... READ MORE
INFLATION REMAINS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO MARKETS... It was reported this morning that April's Producer Price Index for the past year came in at 11%. That followed yesterday's report that the Consumer Price Index was 8.3%. Both reports confirm that inflation remains dangerously high with... READ MORE
I have written two articles about Bitcoin in recent months. The first,last December, concluded that "there are definitely some cracks appearing (in the technical structure), but a shrinking consensus of evidence continues to point to an uptrend." Thesecond, entitled "Has the Bitcoin Bubble Burst", noted... READ MORE
STOCK SELLING RESUMES... Stocks are being sold heavily today and are totally reversing yesterday's Fed relief rally. Stocks have given back all of Wednesday's price gains and look poised to fall further. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling sharply today after meeting resistance at their... READ MORE
I'll get to the Fed element later, but, first, a few words on the Dow Jones Global Stock Index. Chart 1 shows that it has been experiencing a series of declining peaks and troughs since last November. That's not a bullish sign. Neither is the fact... READ MORE
A BAD APRIL ENDS UNDER PRESSURE... Stocks fell sharply on Friday to end one of the weakest months in recent memory. The Nasdaq market lost -13.2% to register its worst month since 2008. The S&P 500 and Dow lost -8.8% and -4,9 % and experienced the... READ MORE
A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece entitled "The Fed Raises Rates; What if it's Already Priced into the Market?". The idea was to point out that the Fed is a lagging indicator and that multiple bond yields had already reached mega resistance in the... READ MORE
50-BASIS POINT HIKE ON THE TABLE FOR FED MAY MEETING... Today's statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that a 50-basis point rate hike was on the table for May, combined with other hawkish comments, pushed stocks sharply lower today. And their technical condition continues to weaken. Particularly disturbing... READ MORE
I've been reading and hearing a lot about an impending recession, which reminds me of the saying that, when everyone thinks alike, everyone is usually wrong. That's not to say everyone is expecting a recession, but we may have reached a point where there is sufficient... READ MORE
Larry is back in this new StockCharts TV special! There's a lot of opinions out there about what the curve means and talking heads are flapping all over about inflation. In this video, Larry shows the actual history of what this means so you can make informed decisions.... READ MORE
STOCKS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... The technical condition of major U.S. stock indexes continues to weaken. All three shown below lost more ground during the week. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials meeting overhead resistance near their red 200-day moving average. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 trading... READ MORE
In early December of last year, I wrote an article on whether Bitcoin had reached the tipping point in terms of signaling a peak in the crypto bubble. Some may disagree about the "bubble" label; however, it seems to me that a financial category coming out of nowhere... READ MORE
WEEKLY SECTOR RANKING... A rebound on Friday leaves the major stock indexes either flat or with minor losses for the week. The weekly sector rankings in Chart 1, however, show a lot of movement beneath the surface. One factor that stands out is that defensive stock groups continue to show... READ MORE
At the turn of the century, this ETF achieved a ten-timer, rallying from $4 in 2002 to $40 in 2008. It's been consolidating for the last 12 years and looks set to embark on a move to new all-time highs. It's not a tech stock, nor... READ MORE
STOCKS HAVE WORST QUARTER IN TWO YEARS...The month of March has seen a rebound in stocks. Even with that rebound, however, the first quarter of this year has been the weakest in two years. Which raises the bigger question of whether or not the recent rebound is the start... READ MORE
Markets discount the future, so if the Fed tells the market it's going to raise rates, it goes ahead and raises them anyway. Why wait on the railroad tracks when you know a train is coming? Ironically, the widely-telegraphed rate rise has arrived at a time when bond... READ MORE
STOCKS ADVANCE FOR A SECOND WEEK...Major U.S. stock indexes gained ground for the second week in a row building the case for a short-term bottom having been formed. And one of them has cleared an important resistance line. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 moving back... READ MORE
Changing relationships between differing asset classes and markets do not speak that often. When they do, strong evidence that important changes may be afoot is often provided. One of the characteristics that has caught my attention since the beginning of the year is that, on one side, stocks been reacting... READ MORE
STOCKS HAVE VERY STRONG WEEK... Major U.S. stock indexes registered their strongest week since November 2020. And they also broke through some initial resistance levels. The week's strong action signals that stocks have put in a short-term bottom and may continue to gain some ground. Their longer-range... READ MORE
I've been bearish on the NASDAQ -- or, more specifically, on its relative action against the S&P Composite -- for about a year. Now that the financial press has announced that the Index, by virtue of passing the somehow magic -20% level, has "entered bear... READ MORE
STOCKS USUALLY PEAK AFTER BONDS... One of the most important features of intermarket analysis is the rotation that normally takes place between bonds, stocks, and commodities at major turning points in the business cycle. That rotation between the three asset classes is especially relevant to the current global situation. Those... READ MORE
The Business Cycle and Sector Rotation The business cycle undergoes a set series of chronological events which are also related to primary trend peaks in bonds stocks and commodities, as laid out in Figure 1. You can read about this concept in greater detail here. Based on the position of... READ MORE
WEST TEXAS CRUDE OIL REACHES 11-YEAR HIGH... The war in Ukraine continues to push oil prices sharply higher along with other commodities. That includes metals and agricultural products. Gold continues to gain ground as a traditional haven during times of rising inflation and increased global tensions. Some defensive money is... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that, starting in early 2020, stocks began to slowly but quietly underperform commodities. Since the start of this year, though, this trend has begun to really accelerate on the downside, i.e. moving in favor of commodities. The center window also shows when a lengthy trendline of... READ MORE
SELLING THE RUMOR AND BUYING THE FACT... Thursday morning's heavy selling of stocks and the buying of traditional safe havens like bonds, gold, and oil reversed sharply that same afternoon. Stocks rose while safe havens lost most of their morning's gains. That more positive trend continued... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES REACH NEW LOWS ON RUSSIAN INVASION... News of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is pushing global stocks sharply lower and pushing money into traditional safe havens like gold, oil, and bonds. The price of West Texas crude oil spiked to $100 this morning while gold prices also... READ MORE
In a recent late January article,I pointed out that many market averages had fallen to key support levels at a time when a lot of them were experiencing selling climaxes. This kind of condition is usually followed by a rally or basing period, but I also noted that other... READ MORE
RISING TENSIONS BOOST GOLD... With increased warnings that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely, investors are selling stocks around the world. And they're buying gold which is usually viewed as a traditional safe haven in times of heightened global tensions. Chart 1 shows the Gold Shares SPDR... READ MORE
Since its August 2020 high, gold has been a very tricky market to call. Let me put it another way; it has been easy to call, but exasperatingly difficult to call correctly because of the numerous false breakouts that have taken place in the last 18 months-or-so. Monday's... READ MORE
In this new StockCharts TV special, Larry Williams shares what he thinks is coming up. He walks us through the historical data, shares the points he believes are the most important to take into consideration and goes on record with his answer to the question everyone is asking - are... READ MORE
STOCKS FAIL TEST OF MOVING AVERAGE LINES... Thursday's CPI report showed January inflation rising 7.5% on an annual basis which was the highest number in four decades (since 1982). That higher inflation number raised prospects for a more aggressive Fed starting next month, and pushed stocks sharply... READ MORE
Before we look at the two-bar reversal, let's first review the long-term technical position for the Dollar Index. It's laid out on a quarterly basis in Chart 1, along with a Coppock momentum indicator. The first thing to note is that the Index is positioned below... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM BOUNCE RUNS INTO RESISTANCE... My last message showed the three major stock indexes in an oversold condition and trying to bounce from underlying chart support. So the recent stock rebound wasn't a surprise. Neither was the size of the rebound. The combination of overhead resistance and today&... READ MORE
Usually, when we are identifying one or two bar price patterns or candlesticks, it's because they appear close to a turning point, thereby giving us a trading edge. From a practical point of view, it makes sense to observe daily or intraday price action. That's because... READ MORE
OVERSOLD MARKET ATTEMPTS TO STABILIZE... After an incredibly volatile week of trading, stocks are in a short-term oversold condition and attempting to stabilize near chart support. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials stabilizing near a flat support line drawn under their June low. At the same time, the 14-day RSI... READ MORE
I am a great believer in the principle of false breaks being followed by above-average moves in the opposite direction to the break. It happens because those who bought on it are caught on the wrong side of the market and are forced to re-position themselves, just as correctly positioned... READ MORE
NASDAQ CONTINUES TO LEAD MARKET DECLINE...Stocks are suffering through another bad week, with the Nasdaq market continuing to lead the decline. The Nasdaq Composite Index has also suffered the most technical damage. It fell below its 200-day moving average last week. Chart 1 shows the COMPQ falling below its... READ MORE
Recently, I have been drawn to two specific-but-unrelated areas of market activity. Both are experiencing an extremely fine balance between buyers and sellers and, as a result, are likely to experience a big move in one direction or the other. These are the copper price and small cap stocks. Let&... READ MORE
NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES ON SPX... A number of negative divergences have shown up on the major stock indexes which have weakened the market's technical condition. Those divergences are showing up mainly in daily momentum oscillators. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 rallying to a new record at... READ MORE