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FXB Gets A Momentum Surge
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The British Pound ETF (FXB) came across the Commodity Channel Index scan as the indicator surged above 100. While some may consider CCI overbought when above 100, it is also a show of strength when CCI moved from -100 to +100 in less than two weeks.
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Breadth & Dollar Keep Stocks in Bull Mode
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
-Evidence Remains Bullish For Stocks
-Weak Dollar Helps Stocks and Commodities
-Major index ETFs Hit New Reaction Highs
-Breadth Remains Bullish Overall
-Small-caps Leading Large-caps
-Nasdaq Lagging NY Composite
-Stocks: ACS, ADSK, APD, ATVI, DVN, HRB, RTN, S, VZ
-Link to today's video (click here)
-Next update: September...
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XLE Hits Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Energy SPDR (XLE) broke above wedge resistance with a big gap on Tuesday, but formed a shooting star candlestick on the day. Notice the spike and failure to hold above 54 intraday. Resistance in the 53-55 area is also confirmed by a bearish engulfing in late August.
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Net New Highs Stay Positive
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Net New Highs for both the Nasdaq and the NYSE remain positive. Net New Highs equals new 52-week highs less new 52-week lows. The last dip into negative territory occurred in early July. With Tuesday's surge, Net New Highs on the NYSE hit +151 and Net New Highs...
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A Cup-with-Handle for SLX
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After a big advance from March to June, the Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX) formed a classic cup-with-handle pattern. This is a bullish continuation pattern that would be confirmed with a break above rim resistance. Conversely, a break below the August lows would call for a reassessment.
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August-September Lows Mark Key Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
-Market Overview
-RSI Holds for QQQQ
-August Lows Mark Key Support
-Defensive Sectors and Technology Lagging
-XLB and XLY Hold Breakouts
-OIH forms Falling Flag
-KRE Hits Key Retracement
-IYT and IYR Bounce off August Lows
-Stocks: AA, DRI, DRYS, EXPD, RIG, SLE, XTO
-Link to today's video....
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BONDS AND GOLD LEAD THE WAY HIGHER
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Intermarket analysis shows strength in bonds and gold, but weakness in the Dollar and oil. Strange days indeed. The Intermarket Perfchart below shows performance over the last sixty days, from June 11th to September 3rd. Relative strength in bonds is the first thing that jumps out. Performance for the 20+...
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Lumber Forms Lower High
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Lumber Continuous Futures ($LUMBER) did not have a good August. Lumber formed a lower high in early August and moved lower throughout the month. As a key component in housing, lumber should be watched for clues on the homebuilders and the economy. Other futures contracts available at Stockcharts.com include...
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Wave 4 Continues Up for SPY
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
-SPY Nears Long-term Retracement
-Current Advance Looks Like Wave 4
-Momentum Wanes on Daily SPY Chart
-Net New Highs Form Negative Divergence
-AD Lines and AD Volume Lines Remain Bullish
-McClellan Oscillator Turn Bearish
-Volatility Indices Break Resistance
-Link to today's video
-Next update: September 8th (Tuesday) around...
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XLB Tests Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After breaking above resistance in July, the Materials SPDR (XLB) moved into a holding pattern as broken resistance turned into support. Notice how the ETF bounced off 28.5 in mid August and is testing this level again in early September. A move below support would show weakness.
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Info from the Bollinger Band Scan
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stockcharts.com provides a number of pre-defined scans using classic indicators. In particular, I always keep an eye on the Bollinger Band scan that shows stocks moving above their upper band and stocks moving below their lower band. Selling pressure is picking up as many more stocks moved below their...
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Financials Back in Spotlight
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
A look at the Market Carpet on Tuesday (11AM ET) shows the finance sector with the most red. In addition, four of the top five losers in the S&P 500 come from the finance sector. Notice the numbered red squares (2-5). Technology is holding up the best with...
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Negative Divergences and Weakness in China
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
-Back in the Saddle
-RSI Negative Divergence for SPY
-China Could Foreshadow Market Top
-Nasdaq Lagging NY Composite
-Interest Rates Continue to Fall
-Dollar Remains in Quiet Downtrend
-Gold Stalls Around 950
-Video Includes some Stock Setups
-Link to today's video
The next update will be September 4th...
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Hang Seng Lagging S&P 500
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
While the S&P 500 sports a small gain for the month of August, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index ($HSI) is actually down and lagging. The S&P 500 (black) moved above its early August high last week, but the Hang Seng Index (red) formed a lower...
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When to Ignore Gaps
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Nokia is a $49 billion company that trades on the NYSE - as an ADS (American Depository Shares). Nokia also happens to trade on the Nasdaq OMX Helsinki. Yes, Nasdaq bought the Helsinki exchange. Anyhow, this means Nokia starts trading long before the NYSE opens. Because prices have already moved...
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Combining Factors
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Candlesticks are more powerful when combined with other aspects of technical analysis. Noble Energy (NE) gapped down and formed a hammer in early July. Over the next two days, a piercing pattern formed to further affirm support around 28. The catalyst came when the stock surged above 29 with good...
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Bullish Engulfing Reinforces Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There are bullish engulfing patterns and then there are BULLISH ENGULFING patterns. Kohls (KSS) successfully tested support from its May lows with a bullish engulfing on high volume. Three items came together for this bullish signal: support, a bullish candlestick reversal and high upside volume. The more, the merrier. Note:...
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Bearish Engulfing Marks Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The bearish engulfing pattern is a short-term candlestick reversal, but it can also mark future resistance. Jabil Circuit (JBL) formed a bearish engulfing in early May and this area marked resistance a month later. The stock formed a rising wedge that peaked just below the early May high and then...
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Looking for Volatility Contractions
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Volatility contractions often precede volatility expansions. This is the rational behind Bollinger Bands. After surging above 5.5, Ford (F) formed a long consolidation and Bollinger Bands contracted as the range narrowed. The subsequent move above resistance and the upper Bollinger Band triggered the volatility expansion (breakout). Note: This is...
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Using the Price Relative
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The price relative can be used to show relative strength or relative weakness. While the S&P 500 moved to new lows in March, Broadcom (BRCM) held support around 16 from mid January to early March. As a result of relative strength, the price relative (BRCM:$SPX ratio) surged...
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Detecting a Fade in Downside Momentum
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Positive divergences in MACD show waning downside momentum that can lead to a breakout. DR Horton (DHI) forged a lower low in early July, but MACD held above its June low for a positive divergence. Despite a lower low in the stock, downside momentum was fading. MACD's subsequent...
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Volume By Price Confirms Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The volume-by-price bars for Bank of America were the longest between 11 and 13. Even though the red and green portions were relatively equal, it is clear that many positions were established in this range. Remember, there is a buyer for every seller. With so much volume, the 11-13 area...
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RSI Breakouts
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Momentum indicators like RSI can be used to define periods when there isn't much momentum, such as a consolidation. Applied Materials (AMAT) was largely range bound from mid May to mid July (yellow area). So was RSI. The breakout in the stock corresponded with a range breakout in...
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Volume By Price Confirms Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The volume-by-price bars for Bank of America were the longest between 11 and 13. Even though the red and green portions were relatively equal, it is clear that many positions were established in this range. Remember, there is a buyer for every seller. With so much volume, the 11-13 area...
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Envelope Surges Show Strength
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The chart below shows DIA with a 20-day SMA and an envelope set 4% above/below the 20-day SMA. Notice how the January plunge below the lower envelope triggered an extended decline. Conversely, the March surge above the upper envelope kicked off the current rally. Not all signals are this...
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Keeping an Eye on Bullish Percent
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Bullish Percent Indices measure the percentage of stocks on a Point&Figure buy signal for a given index. In general, an index has a bullish bias when its Bullish Percent is above 50% and a bearish bias when below 50%. Stockcharts.com users can easily keep an eye...
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Gamestop Moves above Upper Band
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Gamestop (GME) came across the Bollinger Band screen with a move above the upper band on Thursday. Such moves show underlying strength. Notice how GME plunged below the lower band in early May and then worked its way lower until July with the 20-day SMA acting as a short-term bearish...
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Dollar Hits Resistance as Gold Hits Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
-Bulls Still Dominate
-A Close-Only View of QQQQ
-SPY Stalls around 100
-Short-term Momentum Deteriorates
-Breadth Remains Bullish Overall
-VIX Shows Short-term Abnormality
-Dollar Reinforces Resistance
-Gold Holds Support and Dollar Falls
-Bonds Bounce off Support After Fed
-Stocks: LMT, PFCB, RIMM
-Click here for today's video.
-Vacation...
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NDX Consolidates After the Fed
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There are three distinct periods over the last two days. First, stocks surged as the Nasdaq 100 advanced above 1620 before the Fed meeting. Second, stocks gyrated rather wildly as NDX moved above and below 1620 after the announcement. Third, stocks consolidated as the market digested the Fed statement. Watch...
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Oil and Base Metals Keep Pace With Stocks
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The PerfChart below shows the key commodity related ETFs and the S&P 500 since early March. As the stock market surged, the US Oil Fund ETF (USO) and the Base Metals ETF (DBB) were the only two commodity ETFs able to keep pace. The Natural Gas ETF (UNG)...
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Steel ETF Hits Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After surging to the June high, the Steel Vectors (SLX) met resistance and pulled back over the last two days. Notice that the August 3rd gap did not hold and the price relative formed a lower high. SLX is starting to show relative weakness.
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A Trend in Motion Stays in Motion
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
-A Trend in Motion Stays in Motion
-High/Low Range Narrows for SPY
-QQQQ Volatility Contracts Further
-Short-term Uptrends Remain In Place
-XLY Forms Inside Day
-OIH Forges Island Reversal
-IGN Stalls at Resistance
-SMH Declines Five Days Straight
-Stocks Covered: AAPL, ARO, AVY, CHRW, DYN
-Click here for today&...
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Bullish Percent Index Shows Strength
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index stands at 80%, its highest level since February 2007. Above 70% is generally regarded as overbought because this indicator spends most of its time fluctuating between 30% and 70%. However, 80% testifies to underlying strength within the index and this indicator favors...
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Sunoco Surges to Broken Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Sunoco (SUN) broke support around 26 with a sharp decline in June. After reversing course in early July, the stock surged back to broken support, which now turns into resistance. Notice how the stock pulled back with high volume on Thursday. This is a big resistance test.
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A Volatility Contraction for QQQQ
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
-QQQQ Extends Volatility Contraction
-SPY Hits Broadening Resistance
-Short-term Momentum Turns Bearish
-AAII Bulls Hit 50%
-Breadth Remains Bullish Overall
-Nasdaq Lags NY Composite
-Finance Sector Pushes Small-caps Higher
-VIX and VXN Diverge
-Intermarket Correlations
-Link to today's video
-Next update will be Tuesday (August 11) by 7AM...
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An Inverse HS for the Aluminum Index
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The DJ US Aluminum Index ($DJUSAL) traced out a massive inverse head-and-shoulders over the last nine months and broke above neckline resistance this week. With this pattern representing a large base, the breakout is bullish and targets further strength towards 140. Careful though, the index is already up over 40%...
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Financials Dominate Most Active List
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
From the NYSE most active list on the stockcharts.com home page, we can see that banks take up half the list (5 of 10). Although not a bank, GE has a large financial services arm and was third on the list. Also notice that all six of these finance...
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Nasdaq Lags, But Gaps Prevail
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
-Market Overview
-Stock Setups: AMZN, AZO, BA, DRI, ERTS, HAS, POT, RIMM
-Link to today's video.
-Next update will be Friday (August 7) by 7AM ET.
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Market Overview
Stocks rallied on Monday with a fairly broad-based move. The major indices gained 1.5% on average and all sectors...
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Transports Near January High
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Despite rising oil prices, the Dow Transports surged on Monday with a move above 3600. This key average is now within spitting distance of its January high. Also of note, the Dow Industrials broke above its January high last month....
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McClellan Oscillators Remain Bullish
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The McClellan Oscillators moved from bearish to bullish with the July surge in stocks. Basically, the McClellan Oscillator is the 19-day EMA of Net Advances less the 39-day EMA of Net Advances (advances less declines). As the difference of two moving averages, this indicator oscillates above/below the zero line...
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