Trend > Seasonality // QQQ and IWM Hold Support // EW Finance ETF Nears 52-week High // Measuring Correlations with the 10-yr Yield ///// ..... Trend > Seasonality .... I pointed out the negative seasonal pattern for August over the last 20 years, but this does not guarantee a correction or pullback in the... READ MORE
One would not think it from the price charts, but the Finance SPDR (XLF) and several banking stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) since late June. XLF, KRE and many banking stocks are trading below their spring highs and SPY is trading near a 52-week... READ MORE
Tuesday's webinar for Art's Charts was cancelled due to technical difficulties. Most of the webinar is based on the charts from Tuesday's commentary, which are posted again below. In addition to these charts, I am also covering the nine sector SPDRs, T-Bond ETFs,... READ MORE
Breadth Indicator Review // New Highs Soften in late July // %Above 200-day Remains Strong // Marking First Support for S&P 500 // Dealing with the Spike in QQQ // SPY Extends Trading Range //// ..... The stock market environment remains bullish, but the major index ETFs are extended after big gains the last... READ MORE
Chartists can plot 52-week highs right on the price chart by using the Price Channels overlay. The upper line of a 52-week Price Channel marks the high of the last 52-weeks, the lower line marks the low and the middle line is the average of the two.... READ MORE
Waning Momentum is Not Always Negative // Selling Pressure Remains Muted // IWM Breaks Out of Flag // Here Comes August // Positive Correlation between Bonds and Gold // Adding Parabolic SAR to IEF Signal // Gold Follows Through on Bullish Signal // Scanning the S&P 1500 for RSI-StochRSI Signals // Scan Code //// ..... Waning Momentum... READ MORE
There were dozens of gaps today with most coming to the upside. Down gaps in Akamai (AKAM) and Lumber Liquidators (LL) were countered with up gaps in Apple (AAPL) and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD). At midday on Wednesday, the Predefined Scan results showed 22 up gaps on the NYSE-Nasdaq,... READ MORE
SPY Stalls and Gains Hold // Marking First Support for QQQ // IWM Forms High and Tight Flag // Energy Sector Nears Make-or-break Level // XES Breaks Channel Trend Line // Oil Resumes Long-term Downtrend // Webinar Preview //// ..... Click here for Webinar Video SPY Stalls and Gains Hold There is no real change... READ MORE
SystemTrader // Introduction - Measuring Trend Participation // 200-day EMA versus 200-day SMA // Backtesting the Moving Averages // Percent above 200-day Breadth Indicator // Smoothing and Reducing Whipsaws // Capturing Broad Market Participation // Conclusions on Trend Participation // Stocks Above EMA Symbols at StockCharts //// . . . . . Introduction - Measuring Trend Participation The humble moving average remains on... READ MORE
Tesla (TSLA) caught my eye on Monday because its StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) surged over 20 points. The image below shows the SCTR tables for large-cap stocks and ETFs. Notice that I clicked the Top Up tabs to view those with the biggest SCTR gains. Micron (MU) is the... READ MORE
SystemTrader // System Rules and Conditions // Why 5-day RSI? // Testing with S&P 500 Trend Condition // Surviving Some Bad Signals // Sensitivity Testing // Reducing the MDD with Another Trend Condition // Testing Each SPDR Individually // The Power of the Portfolio // Further Study //// ........ Today's Trading Strategy article will test different... READ MORE
Nothing to Do but Trail a Stop // Reviving the Raff Regression Channel for QQQ // Chandelier Exit for IWM // Retail Continues to Impress // Applying the 5-day RSI-StochRSI Strategy to IEF and TLT // USO, BNO and XES Stutter after Bullish Signals // Scan Code for RSI-StochRSI Strategy // Emerging and Latin... READ MORE
The surge in stocks entered its fourth week with QQQ extending its channel breakout. The chart below shows the ETF surging earlier this year and then embarking on a correction with a falling channel into June. This correction clearly ended with the breakout near 110 and this zone now becomes... READ MORE
Webinar Video SPY Continues to Lead the Big Three // RSI Nears 70 for IWM // Sector SPDRs Reflect Broad Market Strength // Webinar Preview - Using Breadth Indicators // Submit a Webinar Question //// ..... SPY Continues to Lead the Big Three Stocks are up sharply over the last three weeks with small-caps leading the... READ MORE
The S&P Small-Cap 600 has been leading the S&P 500 since mid February as a key ratio chart hit a multi-month high last week. The main window in the chart below shows the $SML:$OEX ratio, which plots the performance of the S&... READ MORE
SystemTrader // Introduction - the Bias is Obvious // High-Low Percent Calculation // Massaging the Data with Different Indicators // Setting Bullish and Bearish Thresholds // Breaking Down the S&P 1500 for more Clues // Conclusions on this Trend Following Indicator // High-Low Percent Symbols at StockCharts //// . . . . . Introduction - the Bias is Obvious 52-week... READ MORE
SystemTrader // Introduction // Picking the Market Benchmark // Advance-Decline Percent // Massaging the AD Data // Measuring Significant Shifts // Dividing, Conquering and Affirming // Conclusions AD Percent Indicators at StockCharts //// . . . . . Introduction This is the first in a multi-part series on the key breadth indicators I use to determine the broad market environment. Most... READ MORE
Webinar Video for Tuesday, July 12th S&P 500 Reaches Uncharted Territory // Support and Resistance for Indexes and ETFs // Small-caps and Mid-caps Outperforming // S&P 500 Breadth Finally Confirms // Small-cap New Highs Surge // Percent above 200-day Stays Bullish // Webinar Preview //// ..... S&P 500... READ MORE
Quanta Services (PWR) is showing signs of a long-term trend reversal with its third resistance break this year. The weekly chart shows PWR breaking down in October 2014 and trending lower until early 2016. This downtrend showed its first sign of reversing with the February surge and breakout near... READ MORE
Bullish Resolution to an Already Bullish Chart // QQQ Breaks Channel Trend Line // New Highs Surge in Nasdaq 100 // Creating an Up-Down Pair Chart // Small-caps Come Alive // Consumer Discretionary Leads all Sectors // RCD Breaks June High //// ..... Bullish Resolution to an Already Bullish Chart The stock market is up sharply... READ MORE
SPY Looks More Bullish than Bearish // QQQ and IWM Hold the Gaps // Measuring the Sector Balance in the S&P 500 // All Nine Sector SPDRs have Golden Crosses Working // Healthcare SPDR Clears Benchmark High // Overbought, Oversold and the Bigger Trend // Amazon and Home Depot Power MarketVectors Retail ETF // Retail... READ MORE
Verisk (VRSK) was not immune to the volatility of the last two weeks, but the stock held up well during the dip and outperformed during the bounce. First, notice that the stock ultimately held the mid May low and 200-day SMA during the late June dip. Second, notice that... READ MORE
Still Watching the Swing within Trading Range // Mid-caps Outperform Large-caps // Small-caps Hold Support Zone // Breadth Indicators Hit New Milestones // Bonds Extend Surge as Yields Fall // Falling Yields Weigh on Finance-related Groups // Break Down Holds for Finance SPDR // Webinar Preview //// ..... Still Watching the Swing within the Range... READ MORE
The S&P 500 surged over the last four days and new highs in the S&P 500 expanded to their highest level since March 2015. The chart below shows $SPX surging around 5% in four days and new highs exceeding 80 the last two days. Even though... READ MORE
Chartists will look back at the long-term charts and try to figure out where exactly this big Brexit panic actually occurred. Was there even such an event? There is something to be said for monthly close-only charts because they filter a lot of noise, and June was definitely... READ MORE
SystemTrader // Testing a Basic Mean-Reversion System // Tweaking RSI for Sensitivity // Setting the Ground Rules // Mean Reversion Scan Code // Buy the Falling Knife // Buy after the Bounce // And the Best System Is.... // A Portfolio with No Exceptions // Would You have the Guts? // Further Study //// ........ Testing a Basic Mean Reverions System... READ MORE
S&P 500 Affirms Uptrend with Big Bounce // Short-term Smoothing Improves Returns and Reduces Drawdowns // QQQ leads Recover as IWM Forms Island Reversal // HealthCare SPDR Shows Some Resilience // EW Technology Holds May Low // Five Stocks to Watch: ORCL, CMCSA, ABBV, CERN and ZTS //// ..... S&P 500 Affirms... READ MORE
Chartists need just two plots to find leaders and stocks in uptrends: price and the price relative. Price, of course, can be a line chart, bar chart or candlestick chart. Stocks hitting 52-week highs are in clear uptrends and often leading the market. Bristol Meyers is one such stock... READ MORE
Oversold versus Panic OVERSOLD // IWM Holds the May Low // Housing and Retail Test Benchmark Lows // XSD Becomes Most Oversold // Revisiting the Sovereign Debt Crisis // Brexit View from Belgium //// ..... Oversold versus Panic Oversold Stocks plunged the last two days and most are short-term oversold. Not just oversold, but panic oversold.... READ MORE
Stocks were hit hard on Friday and again early Monday, but Kroger (KR) bucked the selling pressure with a bullish engulfing on Friday and further gains early Monday. Even though the overall trend for KR remains down, a double bottom could be forming as the stock gets its second bounce... READ MORE
Flag Breakout Fails for S&P 500 // AD Percent Remains on a Bull Signal // New Lows have yet to Expand // %Above 200-day Near Bearish Signal for Nasdaq 100 // Consumer Discretionary Remains the Weakest Sector // Finance Sector Weakens Considerably //// ..... Friday's sharp decline is just a blip on... READ MORE
.... Testing the PPO Strategy .... Beware of Survivorship Bias .... Setting the Ground Rules .... Putting Three PPOs to the Test .... Reducing Drawdowns with Trend Filters .... Boosting Returns with a Pullback Rule .... Backtesting the Trend Filters and the Dip .... Testing the Original PPO Strategy .... Final Thoughts ..... Testing the PPO Strategy Today I will... READ MORE
Keep Calm and Carry On // S&P 500 Set for Key Support Test // FTSE Gets Turned Inside Out with Volatility // Smoothing out the Volatility // French and German Markets Bear the Brunt //// ..... Keep Calm and Carry On The markets are reacting violently to the Brexit vote and one could even... READ MORE
Keep Your Eye on the Rising Channels // Small-caps and Mid-caps are Leading // Healthcare and Finance Not doing That Bad // 10-yr Yield Springs a Bear Trap // Rising Yields Could Lift Banks // What does a High Volume Spinning Top Suggest? // Five Annotated Stock Charts worth Watching //// ...... Keep Your Eye... READ MORE
The London FTSE is still down year-to-date, but it is the best performing index in Europe for 2016. The PerfChart below shows year-to-date performance for nine European stock indexes. The London FTSE is in the middle (light blue) and down less than 1% this year. In... READ MORE
Thinking about Stops and Exits // Surge and Zigzag Advance // Small-caps Continue to Lead // Brexit, the FTSE and the Pound // Industrials Sector Remains Strong // Sector Table Supports Broad Market Uptrend // Index Table Remains Firmly Bullish // Webinar Preview // Scan Code for Outperformance //// ..... Thinking about Stops and Exits Before getting into some... READ MORE
Chartists looking for the movers and shakers of the day need look no further than the StockCharts home page. Tables for most actives and SCTRs can be found midway down on the left-hand side. These tables can be viewed by Top 10, Bottom 10, Top Up and Top Down... READ MORE
A sharp decline in Treasury yields is lifting the Utilities SPDR (XLU) and weighing on the Finance SPDR (XLF). First, let's look at the correlations to better understand the relationships. The chart shows the 10-yr Treasury yield in the top window and the Correlation Coefficients in the... READ MORE
SystemTrader // Review of the Golden Cross Tests // Testing Short-term Moving Averages // A Basic 10-50 SMA Cross // Testing the Classic 13-34 EMA Cross // Does a Trend Filter Improve Results? // Final Thoughts //// ........ Last week I tested the golden cross for five major stock indexes and optimized these two moving... READ MORE
Finance Sector Weighs on Broader Market // Using Vortex Indicators with SPY // QQQ Lags with Lower High // A Choppy Advance for IWM // 5-yr Yield hits 2016 Low // Oil Falls within Rising Channel // New High, New Low and Back Again // Large-cap Techs Weigh on XLK // Aluminum Surges to High of... READ MORE