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Two Developments Have Changed My Trading Strategy Heading Into 2020; They Should Change Yours Too
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I am extremely bullish as we head into 2020. Everything is lining up, but there are two factors that I believe will help us help our members - both professionals and individual traders.
First, the Fed has finally moved into the dovish position it should have been in one year ago....
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Top Sectors And Industry Groups According To My Proprietary Momentum Ranking System
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
It made sense to underweight healthcare (XLV) throughout much of 2019, but that's no longer the case. In fact, my proprietary momentum ranking system ranks healthcare behind only technology (XLK) and financials (XLF) in terms of sector momentum. The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) has the same ranking as...
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Two Drug Retailers That Could Be Very Compelling Buys
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
It wasn't too long ago that no one wanted to own a drug retailer ($DJUSRD), but after the group pushed to 9 month absolute and relative highs, a few stocks in the group suddenly became fashionable once again. Perhaps the biggest turnaround came in the form of PetMed...
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This ETF Will Likely Be A Great Stocking Stuffer
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
The S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) broke out again on Friday, closing above 1000 for the first time since October 9, 2018. Its all-time high close is 1098, so the index still has a lot of work to do. I believe this work is likely to...
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To Profit from Trading, You Must Allow Trades to Come To You; Don't Chase
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
One of the great features of our service at EarningsBeats.com is maintaining a Strong Earnings ChartList (SECL) for our members and running scans against it daily to identify trade setups. I do a lot of research every quarter, tracking those companies that beat Wall Street consensus estimates as to...
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Does A Bull Market Depend On Leadership From Growth Stocks? You Might Be Surprised
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
My favorite ratio to watch in order to gauge the market's appetite for growth stocks is the Russell 1000 Growth ETF vs. the Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWF:IWD). When this ratio is moving higher, we want our portfolio to be weighted more toward growth. When the opposite...
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Based On The Charts, These 2 Stocks Could Explode With Earnings
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I have found there are no guarantees when it comes to earnings and how a company will report. We can make educated guesses, though, especially when you consider that Wall Street has access to management teams before their "quiet period". A quiet period is simply the time from...
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This Group LOVES December Historically.......And It Just Broke Out Technically!
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Welcome to December! It's hard to believe we're one month away from a new year and a new decade. While 2019 has been exciting for investors and traders, recovering from that massive Q4 2018 decline, I believe 2020 will be very solid as well. We'...
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Finding The Best Stocks To Make Your Money Grow Faster
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I know it seems like a daunting task, but it's not nearly as hard as it seems. Obviously, the first step requires finding a method or strategy that works. At EarningsBeats.com, we've found what works for us. It's combining our strengths with StockCharts....
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To Chase Or Not To Chase? The Truth Behind Earnings Gaps
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
For years, this question was left unanswered. Honestly, I couldn't figure out this answer for a long, long time. I've come to realize through years of experience, however, that I simply needed to watch the action after the gap and show a little patience. It seems...
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Uncovering "Value" In Uptrending Stocks
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Last week when I identified the Top 10 stocks in our Model, Aggressive, and Income portfolios, I provided a bonus to EarningsBeats.com members when I unveiled my first ever Value Portfolio. I'm primarily a momentum trader and you rarely associate momentum stocks with value stocks. But the...
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Rotation is Yielding New Leaders; Here are Two of My Favorites
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Over the past few months, we've seen some new market leadership emerge. If you're simply following the S&P 500, then you probably haven't noticed much difference. We consolidated a bit in August and September before then resuming the uptrend. It's...
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Emerging Leadership: When Should We Trust An Emerging Group For Trading?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
This is a very interesting question. Many lagging groups will outperform for a day, week, or even a month, but then they fall right back into their relative downtrends. If you're trading stocks within sectors and industry groups showing poor relative strength, you're fighting an uphill...
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Not All Trades Are Created Equal
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
10 years ago, I traded the stock market much differently. I didn't maintain a "Strong Earnings ChartList" to trade exclusively from like I do now. I considered relative strength, but it wasn't a primary focus. But I look at the overall stock market and...
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Creating A Portfolio To Trounce The S&P 500
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
While there's no sugar coating that the market's sudden shift in August from growth stocks to value stocks cut into my returns, I'm still quite proud of my Model portfolio's performance after its one year anniversary yesterday. On November 19, 2018, I...
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Another Industry Breakout And A Stock That's Leading The Charge
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
The good news is that this breakout in the S&P 500 is littered with mini-breakouts in various sectors and industry groups. One of the latest industry groups to join the party is diversified industrials ($DJUSID), home of General Electric (GE). The former closed at a 52 week...
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2020 Market Outlook And A Turnaround Candidate To Consider In An Unlikely Area
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
If you've followed my blogging and shows, then you know how bullish I've been and still am. During all the trade war, Fed, recession, and political worries, I've called for new all-time highs. I'm not stopping there. Don't be...
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Looking Ahead To 2020 For Sector Leadership
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I remain quite bullish about 2020 prospects and one reason is the relative strength of our 5 aggressive sectors - technology (XLK), consumer discretionary (XLY), communication services (XLC), financials (XLF), and industrials (XLI). Wall Street has not positioned itself for anything other than a market advance ahead, so you should be...
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What A First Year It's Been For My Model Portfolio! +44.54% With 3 Days Left
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Any time you can beat the benchmark S&P 500, it's saying something. Many professionals managing money set the S&P 500 as the standard and try to beat it....and most fail. It's not an easy thing to do. But I do believe...
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New Leadership In The Industrials, But How Do We Break Down The Group For Winners?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
In my last article, I illustrated the relative breakout in industrials vs. the benchmark S&P 500. The market goes through cycles and leadership rotates - even during the same bull market. StockCharts.com recently added SCTR scores for industry groups, so if you're unsure as to which...
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A Key New Theme Has Emerged
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
We've witnessed a major shift in relative strength among sectors and industry groups and in order to prepare for the overall market strength in late-2019 and into 2020, we need to recognize this fundamental shift. Below I've identified a major thematic change in the U....
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Biotechs Have Finally Caught Fire; Trading Candidates To Consider
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
When the biotechs ($DJUSBT) get rolling, make sure to jump on board for the ride! The DJUSBT broke out above 600 at the beginning of 2012; by the time the run was over 3 1/2 years later, it had gained 167%! Since the middle of 2015, this same group...
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Transports Will Lead A Major Bull Market Rally During Q4 And Throughout 2020
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I've maintained a bullish stance throughout the past 21 months of stock market turbulence. My signals simply reminded me to ignore the negative media and all the attempts to take the stock market lower. Don't follow CNBC's rhetoric. If they were right, we'...
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Breaking Down Small Cap Industrials - What To Buy?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I wrote an article earlier this morning in the free EarningsBeats Digest newsletter that showed the Invesco S&P SmallCap Industrials ETF (PSCI) outperforming its larger cap counterpart industrials sector ETF (XLI) over the past few months, a change from what we'd grown accustomed to since August...
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S&P 600 Small Cap Index Fails At Resistance - What Does It Mean?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Well, at first it simply means that there were enough sellers to hold off the bulls on their initial attempt to join the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ in breakout territory. I wouldn't worry a whole lot, however, as I believe it's just...
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This Group Could Be Poised For A 50% Rise Over The Next 1-2 Years
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
There are two groups, when they get rolling, that you do not want to miss. The first is semiconductors ($DJUSSC), which have exploded through resistance over the past two weeks and are higher by roughly 30% since June. KLA Corp (KLAC), Teradyne (TER), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Lam Research (LRCX)...
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How Can You Spot A Top In All-Time High Territory?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I generally look to prior price highs in determining overhead resistance, but in the case of all-time highs, there are none. So where do we go next? From a bigger picture outlook, we can use pattern measurements. Based on the recent ascending triangle breakout, I'd look to...
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Understanding The Hints That Relative Strength Or Weakness Provides
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Here's today's EB Digest article that I sent to free subscribers close to 8am EST this morning. I just wanted to provide a sample of what you'll get if you SIGN UP.
Looking for a Negative Earnings Surprise
I've been providing a...
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Take Your Relative Strength Analysis To The Next Level And Predict Earnings Reports
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Ok, it might be a tad early to call it a leader, but transportation services ($DJUSTS) recently broke out to an 8 month relative high to the benchmark S&P 500. Money has been rotating there and we need to be aware of this relative strength. Before we look...
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Don't Overlook These Two Boring Areas If Breakouts Occur
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Stock market rotation occurs on a small level each and every day, but longer-term "big picture" themes emerge and it's critical for us to spot them early in their development in order to take advantage and ensure a much better chance of outperforming the major...
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It's Happening! The Puzzle Pieces Are Coming Together, Get Ready Bulls!
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Anyone who has followed my work for the past decade knows that I've remained steadfastly bullish despite all the negative media rants. Follow the charts. There is no recession. The economy will strengthen. We'll get a trade deal. Heck, even the Fed is finally on board...
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Separating Winners From Wannabes After Two Weeks Of Earnings Season
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
On each of the past two Mondays, I've hosted webinars that have highlighted stocks poised to trend higher with earnings results. It's a concept I discuss frequently and most of it has to do with relative strength. If Wall Street is accumulating, we need to take...
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Can You See An Earnings Report Before It's Announced?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I completely understand that it's really not possible, but Wall Street does provide us a number of clues. When a company is being accumulated and is outperforming its industry group peers plus the benchmark S&P 500, there's typically a reason for it. As I&...
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Check Out The New Leadership Over The Past Month
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
As a trader, I'm constantly watching my industry group relative strength charts. There are 104 of them, so I could look at each one individually....or I could use the cool StockCharts tools to do all the work for me. Once I am in the ChartList that I&...
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Lock Into A Strengthening Industry For Great Earnings Results
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
It works like a charm. Wall Street places their bets ahead of earnings season, then the solid results pour in. Shocking? Not really. That's a big advantage to have - to be able to meet with management teams ahead of earnings reports (before the "quiet period") to...
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NFLX Dropped A Bomb, How Will The Other FAANG Stocks React To Earnings?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
There's been a lot said and written about the struggles of the FAANG stocks. Don't let any of it fool you. The only FAANG stock reeling in my view is Netflix (NFLX). In last week's "Q3 Earnings Sneak Preview", I said I...
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Earnings-Related Gaps - How To Profit From Them
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Earnings season is, by far, my favorite time of the year. It occurs four times a year and provides a significant number of trading opportunities if you know what you're looking for. My first piece of advice is this: Not all gaps are created equal. Many traders consider...
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What A Month For The Banks So Far!
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
October volatility in the banking industry ($DJUSBK) has been nothing short of crazy! On September 30th, the DJUSBK stood at 457.39. A little more than two weeks later, we show an index value of 460.82. No big deal, right? Well, October began with that infamous ISM manufacturing number...
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JP Morgan Chase (JPM) Banks A Huge Report
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
JPM did not disappoint Wall Street. The Street had been "banking" on a solid report, as evidenced by its solid relative performance to its banking peers and to the benchmark S&P 500. And wow did they get it! JPM reported revenues of $30.06 billion and...
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Consumer Discretionary Poised To Lead Market Higher
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Last week, there were eight industry groups within consumer discretionary (XLY) that gained 2% or more, lead by the rapidly-improving apparel retailers ($DJUSRA), which gained 4.57% and broke out to 5 month absolute and relative highs:
The strength in the DJUSRA helped the XLY bounce off trendline support...
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