As you probably know, my background is in public accounting. I practiced as a CPA for two decades prior to turning my full attention to technical analysis. My analysis of the stock market always includes both fundamental and technical analysis, with a historical component sprinkled in. (I never met a... READ MORE
STOCKS MAKE UP LOST GROUND...Two strong days in a row have more than made back losses suffered on Monday. In addition, some of the short-term technical damage has been repaired. More specifically, 50-day moving averages that were broken on Monday have been regained on the S&P 500... READ MORE
On Wednesday, the Fed announcement continued past promises of reducing their bond-buying program and keeping interest rates low. The 120-billion-dollar bond-buying program will first look to reduce $15 billion per month beginning near the end of the year before it moves towards raising interest rates. Looking through the eyes of... READ MORE
Larry is back again! The topic du jour is "Trading Bitcoins & Cryptocurrencies." They have become really big markets with a huge following. Larry will share his insights on how to trade them, the problems with them and the opportunities. If you're a Bitcoin trader, you&... READ MORE
In this edition of Trading Simplified, Dave discusses the elephant in the room and he has a lot of thoughts about it. He talks about methodology in action and market timing - "Where are we now?" The charts will change over time, but the concepts are still there.... READ MORE
On Tuesday, the Market attempted a recovery, with an initial gap higher followed by choppy price action throughout the day. Because the market is not selling off like it did early Monday, this is showing that the market is having trouble bouncing back quickly. For the past week, the media... READ MORE
Earlier in the month, I pointed out that the long-term indicators for commodities were still bullish, but getting overbought. At the same time, several intermarket relationships were signaling danger, which suggested some degree of vulnerability. Prices have not moved very much since then, but, bearing in mind that overstretched technical... READ MORE
Be Careful what you wish for.... the market finally seems to be starting to give in. As Europe opens the week lower and the US follows, I assess the rotations at asset class and sector level on this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight. With the market now... READ MORE
SEPTEMBER SELLING DEEPENS ON CHINA CONCERNS... Monday's heavy selling of stocks was the biggest drop since the spring. The selling started in China on concerns over its property market and spread to Europe and the U.S. Going into Monday, stocks were already pulling back on fears that... READ MORE
The Fed began its latest 2-day meeting this morning and it'll release its latest FOMC policy decision on Wednesday at 2pm ET. From past experience, I know there's been significant volatility after Fed announcements, so I thought I'd summarize the S&P 500... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Erin and Carl concentrate on what could be a Downside Exhaustion Climax. Carl covers off the broad markets and indicators with special attention to a possible exhaustion. Will it form a solid market bottom? The FAANG+ stocks (top 10 cap-weighted SPX stocks) were already showing... READ MORE
Some people say that trading takes nerves of steel and insane willpower. Maybe people with these skills exist, but to become successful at trading you don't need to have such rare superpowers. What a successful trader needs, and what many traders fail to create, is a solid plan.... READ MORE
As discussed in an earlier technical note, the Indian equity markets were grossly overbought; as a result, they were largely expected to consolidate. However, in the first four days of the week, the NIFTY put up a very strong show as it kept marking incremental lifetime highs on a closing... READ MORE
It's an interesting question. After all, during periods of economic expansion, transportation stocks ($TRAN) should ship more goods, report higher profits, and be rewarded with higher stock prices. If you're not already aware, the TRAN and the S&P 500 have a very tight long-term... READ MORE
On September 9, Affirm Holdings (AFRM) reported its earnings results after the bell. The market liked what they heard and saw, with the stock climbing a nifty 37.5% from the prior day's close to the high the day after the numbers were released. If you owned the... READ MORE
This week on StockCharts TV'sThe MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reviews the broader markets and what to be on the lookout for to signal a bullish uptrend. She also shares pockets of strength that are poised to trade higher, as well as turnarounds that have further upside potential. This... READ MORE
I recently gave a webcast on how to avoid one of the sneakiest and most prolific of the behavioral biases: confirmation bias. Here's how it works. Instead of gathering evidence and then making a decision, you reverse the two. You actually make your decision first and then you... READ MORE
On Friday, the S&P 500 (SPY) broke an important support level by closing under the 50-day moving average and this week's low. While this was an important level to break, it was also a very clean and obvious place for the SPY to fall through. For... READ MORE
The AAII indicators are making waves this week so I will cover two charts. AAII percent bears surged to 39.3% and percent bulls dropped to 22.40%. As a result, net bull-bear percentage plunged to -16.90%, the first negative reading since September 2020. Note that the remaining 38.... READ MORE
S&P 500 TESTS 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE... Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 trying to find support at its 50-day moving average (blue arrow). Stocks have entered a seasonally weak period extending from September into October. And despite the general consensus that stocks are due for a... READ MORE
With the pandemic came a wave of new retail traders. Using apps that make trading as easy as swiping up on a phone to execute an order, millennials and more jumped on the bull train after the initial market selloff. This rapid bullish trend has made dip-buying (buying an upward... READ MORE
I had planned to look at some lesser-known Relative Rotation Graphs in this week's episode of Sector Spotlight, but I used too much time on asset class and sector rotations to make that happen. So I am going to publish them here and give a brief description and... READ MORE
As setups present themselves, it's hard to read something in a book and go out and do it. You really need to have somebody guide you on what a good setup is. In this edition of Trading Simplified, Dave shows you how to to just that. This video... READ MORE
On Tuesday, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, faced pushed back from senators about his recent ideas of adding cryptocurrency regulation, along with other topics such as meme stocks and zero-commission trading. Specifically diving into zero-commission trading, Gensler believes that zero fees, while nice for the... READ MORE
On this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, asset class level stocks are still beating bonds, but the pace is slowing down. The big H&S pattern in EUR/USD, which suggested strength for the USD, is still there but lost a bit of its appetite. Sector... READ MORE
One of my favorite times to trade is leading up to options expiration, because it's one time where I feel fairly comfortable which side of the trade that market makers are on. It's options expiration week and a time where we do a lot of research... READ MORE
In this special evergreen episode of DecisionPoint, Erin discusses the concept of climax analysis. Market climaxes are important to recognize, as they generally will indicate whether the market is "initiating" a new move or if the current price move is "exhausting." Climax analysis picks up important... READ MORE
Most of the time, the charts I plot are constructed from daily data. As a result, the necessary perspective provided by weekly ones often gets overlooked. By way of a remedy, I decided, some time ago, to create chartlists for key markets featuring weekly high low close and candlestick arrangements.... READ MORE
The major indices closed surprisingly well on Monday. Although the initial morning gap-up did not hold, the Dow Jones (DIA) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) were able to make a comeback, with support from IWM's 50-DMA at $221.58 and the low of 8/19 at $347.31... READ MORE
Apple, Inc. (AAPL) has been one of the most analyzed stocks in the Wyckoff Power Charting pages. It is the largest company by market capitalization and has a huge influence on the major stock indexes. On March 19th of 2015 it was added to the (pre) historic Dow Jones Industrial... READ MORE
Following rotation in 2021 has been difficult because few industry groups have maintained leadership roles for any length of time. There have been a few. Specialty finance ($DJUSSP), internet ($DJUSNS), and software ($DJUSSW) come quickly to mind among our 5 aggressive sectors. Outside of the aggressive sectors, I could certainly... READ MORE
Chartists often face a conundrum when a new trend signal triggers because the stock or ETF is frequently extended when this signal triggers. After all, it takes strong buying pressure for a new uptrend to signal. Short-term overbought or extended conditions are long-term bullish, but these same conditions can lead... READ MORE
In the previous weekly note, it was mentioned that even though the NIFTY and other key indexes are grossly overbought, the options data is continuing to show strength. This also meant that the supports were dragged higher by the NIFTY. While trading on the expected lines, the Indian equity markets... READ MORE
The S&P 500 posted its worst week since February, with every sector ending in the red. The move points to investor concerns about volatility as we head into the typically difficult fall period. While subscribers to my MEM Edge Report will attest to clear-cut pockets of strength, as... READ MORE
"Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball." - Carl Swenlin For me, technical analysis is not about trying to predict the future. So when I'm asked to give my S&P 500 target for year-end, I try not to giggle as I answer.... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the US stock market is in a long-term uptrend relative to the rest of the world. The upper window compares the S&P to the Vanguard All-World ex-US ETF and indicates a recent breakout from a consolidation reverse head-and-shoulders. The lower panel substitutes the S&... READ MORE
With the SPY/SPX chart sending curveballs, sector rotation on Relative Rotation Graphs is sending conflicting signals. With breadth continuing to deteriorate as the S&P continues to creep higher, getting a handle on the markets is not getting any easier. So instead of focusing on the S&... READ MORE
This week on StockCharts TV'sThe MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reviews last week's market action to determine whether we're in for rougher times ahead. She also highlights how to tell if your stock is pulling back or poised to head much lower. This video was... READ MORE
When the market struggles to decide which direction to travel in, we tend to see increased volatility. Throughout last week, the market was struggling to pick a direction until finally it threw in the towel and broke lower near the end of Friday. This is a considerable break in price... READ MORE
Congratulations! We've made it through the first 10 days of September mostly unscathed. At the time of this writing, the S&P 500 is down slightly more than 0.50% month-to-date. Momentum remains fairly strong and the trend is up, so why should we worry? Well, let&... READ MORE